ACUS11 KWNS 011714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011714=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...parts of Mississippi...Alabama...and far eastern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011714Z - 011845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds possible this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong morning insolation has allowed temperatures to
warm into the upper 80s amid a very moist boundary layer,
characterized by dew point temperatures into the mid 70s F. This has
resulted in destabilization of the environment, yielding 2500 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Visible satellite/radar is now indicating scattered
convection developing across the region. The expectation is for
storms to continue developing, maturing into the afternoon hours
while spreading southeast with time. Weak deep-layer shear will
limit storm organization, but given appreciable low-level lapse
rates (approaching 8 C/km) and the aforementioned moist environment,
periodic strong/water-loaded downdrafts can be expected with this
activity, resulting in isolated wind damage throughout the remainder
of the afternoon and early evening.

..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_68iCLeOGDXr2zIvdpRz6YWhrMLk_wliaQKOo2VcHFU13lSUBi761dGeqh3SfBsjrQ9MBXCzO= Lq6mq4SyBAUBOt5WxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30769023 31609087 32699075 33569008 33968949 34378826
34618725 34278614 33428547 32118571 31698602 31188685
30448889 30769023=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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