ACUS11 KWNS 022029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022028=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-022200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast Wisconsin and the UP/LP of
Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 022028Z - 022200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe winds gusts/hail possible this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a small cluster of cells
over portions of northeast Wisconsin, and a few isolated cells over
the LP of Michigan, traversing southeast. These storms initiated
during the heating of the day amid a weakly capped environment.
Persistent downstream heating, where dew point temperatures are in
the low 60s F, is yielding MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and low
level lapse rates near 9 C/km. The weak instability combined with
marginal deep-layer shear (approaching 25-35 kt) should limit storm organization. That said, some potential exists for a localized
damaging wind gust or severe hail with the strongest cells
throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.

..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wLx9ya2eHcwth1e1bO2zEA2QFdVnNZ_rlFlb7_hIFYS2myl-fLuiVMbNFUyMhr8MOcQnzKrw= 7V2Z1lpdSHsv5rWRoY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON 45918727 45928808 45558936 45098997 44308987 43708952
43438906 43128768 42898593 42768480 42698390 42968291
43888303 44338350 45078356 45378498 45878694 45838684
45918727=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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