ACUS11 KWNS 022251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022250=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-030015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Upper Midwest

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 022250Z - 030015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and locally
strong gusts will be possible during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are initiating along a weak
low-level moisture gradient and wind shift extending southeastward
from southeast MN into far southwest WI -- aided by a midlevel speed
max approaching the area (evident in water-vapor imagery). An elongated/straight hodograph (around 30 kt of effective shear) and
sufficient surface-based instability along this corridor may promote brief/transient convective organization over the next few hours.
Given an expected cellular mode amid the elongated/straight
hodograph and modestly steep lapse rates, isolated instances of
marginally severe hail will be possible (along with locally strong
gusts). The overall threat is expected to remain too localized and
transient for a watch.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7XXneGKb9SbsiSrZWgWMB-YndA3SoSJ7qBxB4cByDSkFidw0NHcpchcV7r5FoCUMa-SwSIVfV= PacZ9yJEbNJMwnsHF8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 43439360 43879412 44359423 44839385 44879299 44649231
43539014 42878994 42359041 42469139 43439360=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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