ACUS11 KWNS 031407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031407=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 031407Z - 031600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms
appear increasingly likely across parts of New England into this
afternoon. One or two Severe Thunderstorm Watches will probably be
issued before midday as storms intensify eastward.

DISCUSSION...Two areas of ongoing convection, one along the ME/QC
border and the other near the NY/VT border vicinity, should
intensify as they spread east across parts of New England into
midday. 12Z CAR sounding sampled a moderate combination of MLCAPE
and effective bulk shear with convective temperature in the upper
70s. 14Z surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low
80s with abundant insolation ahead of both convective areas. While
the 12Z HRRR appears to be poorly handling the near-term scenario,
it does suggest another round of strong to potentially severe
convection may emanate eastward from ongoing storms across the Saint
Lawrence Valley near northern NY. A mix of isolated severe hail with
a predominant threat of scattered strong to localized severe gusts
producing damaging winds seems probable.

..Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_RLz_QRDabJsaLs-PYvEEwpMXxjaO3kzakFx-0EkCWv6DbnWaBaXI_d4ln-6PGEr5J600FFGo= t0_aSYHoXjjArtAPkk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 46086650 44986752 43766937 42547080 42357142 42407258
42577335 43197332 43997237 44717200 45007240 45337216
46427037 46976937 47356811 47126737 46086650=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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