ACUS02 KWNS 220558
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S.
for Saturday or Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward through the western
Great Lakes on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward
across the mid Mississippi Valley and central Plains. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible near the front. Instability is expected to remain
weak along and ahead of the front, which should keep any severe
potential low. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe
threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 08/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 221634
SWODY2
SPC AC 221632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S.
for Saturday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Midwest,
enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Saturday.
Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will persist across the West. At
the surface, a cold front will extend from Upper MI into northeast
NM Saturday morning, and sweep east/southeast through the period
across much of the MS/OH Valleys into the southern Plains.

A seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will result in a
narrow corridor of modest destabilization across Lower MI into the
Mid-MS Valley, and westward across parts of KS/OK and the
central/southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms may develop near the cold front, or in the
post-frontal upslope regime across the central High Plains. Modest
midlevel lapse rates are forecast amid MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Poor convergence along the front and weak large-scale ascent with south
and westward extent should limit storm coverage. Overall, severe
potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 08/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 230607
SWODY2
SPC AC 230605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas...
A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the
eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of
the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high
pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving
front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western
periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western
Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate
instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern
third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level
convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based
convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This
convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late
afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a
subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The
storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado
into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early
to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the
instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km
shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential
will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 08/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 230617
SWODY2
SPC AC 230615

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas...
A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the
eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of
the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high
pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving
front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western
periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western
Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate
instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern
third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level
convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based
convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This
convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late
afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a
subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The
storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado
into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early
to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the
instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km
shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential
will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 08/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 231732
SWODY2
SPC AC 231730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may reach severe thresholds from eastern Colorado into
western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening with hail or wind
potential. General thunderstorms will also be concentrated along a
cold front from parts of New York across Pennsylvania and into
northern Virginia.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will remain over James Bay on Sunday, with an expansive
upper trough/area of cyclonic flow from the northern Plains across
the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, high
pressure will spread southeastward across the Plains and Midwest,
with a cold front roughly from western NY into KY and AR by late
afternoon. This boundary will also extend northwestward across OK
and into western KS, where it will decelerate during the day.

...Eastern CO into western KS...
A zone of stronger instability with MUCAPE to around 2000 J/kg is
forecast in the moist east/northeast surface wind regime. Low
pressure will also develop over southeast CO during the afternoon
coincident with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates south
of the main front/wind shift. All this will occur beneath 25-30 kt
midlevel northwesterlies, which will elongate hodographs.

Early elevated storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from
southwest NE into western KS within a warm advection regime atop the
front. It is questionable whether any of this activity would contain
hail after 12Z Sunday. However, a weakening trend is likely during
the day.

Heating west of this area and extending to the Front Range will lead
to destabilization, and initial thunderstorms are likely over the
mountains after 20Z. As the more unstable air mass becomes uncapped
over the lower plains, a few storms may attain severe levels
producing hail, and perhaps locally strong gusts. It is unclear how
much coverage will occur especially extending farther east into KS,
but conditionally the environment will continue to support at least
a low-end severe risk.

Farther south into the OK/TX Panhandles, a few southeastward-moving
cells may develop as well, but lapse rates aloft will be poor.

...Parts of central NY into PA...
A narrow band of around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to develop
ahead of the cold front, with lift along the front supporting
scattered afternoon storms. Modest deep-layer shear around 40 kt and
primarily straight-line hodographs should yield mainly cellular
storm mode. Given this, a relatively shallow/cool boundary, and weak
flow below 700 mb, the overall wind threat appears low. While shear
will support cellular mode, relatively poor midlevel lapse rates
suggest storms may be capable of only small/sub-severe hail.

..Jewell.. 08/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 240534
SWODY2
SPC AC 240533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S.
on Monday and Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will be in place across much of
the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a
large area of high pressure will remain in place from the Great
Plains eastward to the Appalachians. Along this southern periphery
of this airmass, post-frontal storms will be possible across parts
of the central High Plains and southern Plains Monday afternoon.
Within this airmass, any instability that develops is forecast to
remain weak, suggesting that the potential for severe storms is low.
Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a severe threat is not
expected Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 08/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 241708
SWODY2
SPC AC 241706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over a small part of
south-central Arizona Monday afternoon. Otherwise, potential for
severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will be situated over eastern Canada and across
much of the central and eastern states on Monday, with a relative
ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will result in
mostly stable conditions from the northern and central Plains toward
the Gulf Coast and Mid Atlantic, but residual instability may remain
over New England and across south TX and FL. Southerly winds over
the southern Plains may also interact with a southward-moving cold
front, with general thunderstorms from OK into parts of northwest
TX.

...Southern AZ...
With the upper high centered over NM, southeasterly midlevel winds
will exist over AZ, on the order of 20-25 kt. Meanwhile, light
westerly winds will exist within the deepening boundary layer as
heating occurs. Low to mid level moisture will already be in place,
and 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE appear likely by late afternoon.

Storms are expected to form over eastern Santa Cruz County (and
perhaps isolated development into eastern Pima County), with
steering currents and propagation yielding west/northwest motions.
With time, aggregate outflow may produce strong to perhaps severe
gusts on the local level as activity moves into the diurnally primed
air mass, with gusty winds possible through early evening.

..Jewell.. 08/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 250541
SWODY2
SPC AC 250540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern
U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the
central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to
be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as
surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts
of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will
also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In
these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting
the severe potential will be limited.

..Broyles.. 08/25/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 251727
SWODY2
SPC AC 251725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
High pressure will result in cool and/or stable conditions over much
of the central and eastern CONUS with the primary upper trough
moving to the East Coast by Wednesday morning. Behind this upper
trough, a weakening upper ridge will extend from the central Rockies
southward towards the Rio Grande Valley.

West of this ridge, lower heights with pockets of cooler midlevel
temperatures will exist over much of the Intermountain West, which
will continue to aid scattered general thunderstorm activity. While
gusty winds may occur with afternoon activity coincident with peak
heating and due to steep boundary layer lapse rates, severe storm
potential appears minimal on the large scale.

..Jewell.. 08/25/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 260556
SWODY2
SPC AC 260554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A few stronger storms are
possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S., with an
embedded impulse ejecting into the Atlantic as a second impulse
impinges on the Great Lakes. An upper ridge will persist over the
Southwest while a weak mid-level cut-off low meanders across the
Pacific Northwest. A surface high will become established east of
the MS River, with low-level moisture poised to pivot around the
surface high and advect northward across the Plains into the Great
Lakes region, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the High
Plains during the afternoon given lee surface troughing, with
elevated thunderstorms continuing into the central Plains overnight
within a warm-air advection regime. The best chance for any strong
storms would be over portions of the Colorado Front Range and the
Upper Midwest, where an overlap of marginally favorable shear and
instability may exist.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
The second impulse pivoting around the broader upper trough over the
Great Lakes will promote an organized round of thunderstorms within
a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Modest mid-level lapse rates
will overspread low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg of
thin MLCAPE across extreme eastern SD toward the MN/IA border.
Modest veering flow with height will encourage 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear as well. As such, a few strong storms with
sub-severe wind and hail are possible around afternoon peak heating.

...Colorado Front Range...
Upslope low-level flow across the central High Plains will support
60+ f surface dewpoints to advect northwestward toward the Colorado
Front Range. Here, increasing westerly flow with height will support
some speed shear, evident in forecast soundings as relatively
straight hodographs. Lapse rates are expected to be poor (i.e.
around 6.5 C/km), with MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg via thin
profiles. A few of the stronger storms may produce some wind and
hail, but these hazards are currently expected to remain generally
below severe limits.

..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 261659
SWODY2
SPC AC 261658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday), though a few stronger storms
are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front
Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible.

...SD/MN/IA Vicinity...

A broad upper trough will be in place from the Upper Midwest to the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a persistent mid/upper
northwest flow regime across the region. Forecast guidance suggests
a weak shortwave impulse will move across the eastern Dakotas and
MN/IA during the morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak front
will develop southward, extending generally west to east across
eastern SD into southern MN by peak heating. Weak southerly
low-level flow will promote shallow boundary layer moisture, with
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s along/ahead of the
surface boundary. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain
modest, but weak instability (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is
forecast. Some early-day showers and clouds may linger, but isolated thunderstorms will likely develop during mid to late afternoon near
the surface boundary from far eastern SD into southern MN.

Vertically veering wind profiles, with strengthening northwest flow
through the mid/upper levels will support effective shear magnitudes
in the 25-35 kt range. Forecast hodographs also appear
elongated/straight. While 500 mb temperatures are forecast in the
-10 to -12 C range, some warming around 700 mb is apparent in some
forecast soundings. While an organized storm or two may become
strong within a favorable shear parameter space, it is uncertain if
robust updrafts will be maintained given marginal thermodynamics and
some contamination to the environment from early-day activity. An
isolated strong gust or small hail may be possible with the
strongest storms for a couple hours during the late afternoon or
early evening, but overall severe potential looks limited at this
time.

...Central High Plains...

South to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low
60s F dewpoints northwest across the central High Plains beneath
modest upper ridging over the western U.S. Daytime heating and a
developing lee-trough will provide focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon along the CO/southeast WY Front Range.
Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but sufficient for
MLCAPE in the 500-1200 J/kg range. Modestly increasing westerly
mid/upper flow will support 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes and
somewhat elongated hodographs. A couple of strong storms capable of
sub-severe wind gusts and hail will be possible as convection
develops east/southeast into the eastern CO and western KS vicinity
through the evening. Overall, severe potential appears limited at
this time given the modest thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 270554
SWODY2
SPC AC 270552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat,
are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper
ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A
mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse
the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the
southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into
the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger
thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will
benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical
wind shear.

...Southern High Plains into the Arklatex...
An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere
along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow
boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead
of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to
rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface
temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface
dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface
winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height,
will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that
redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this
environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA
border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an
isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of
Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 271705
SWODY2
SPC AC 271704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are
possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex...

A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected
to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS
on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern
KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast
along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern
OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located
over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop
southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River.
Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge
across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River
vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints
in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating
into the 90s.

Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich
boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near
2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may
occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically
veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the
shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a
deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This
could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further
west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind
gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday
afternoon into early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 280551
SWODY2
SPC AC 280549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains tomorrow (Friday).

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will meander over New England while upper ridging
prevails across the western and central U.S. tomorrow (Friday).
Surface high pressure will dominate the MS/OH Valley regions while a
lee surface trough encourages moisture return across the western
Gulf Coastal region into the southern and central High Plains.
Multiple weak mid-level perturbations will traverse the upper ridge,
serving as foci for thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Given a combination of at least marginal overlapping shear and
instability over the High Plains to the Sabine River Valley, a
couple of thunderstorms may approach severe limits.

...Sabine River Valley...
Multicellular convection, perhaps in the form of an MCS, will be
ongoing at the start of the period, and likely weakening through the
morning hours. This convection will leave behind an outflow boundary
that will serve as the impetus for renewed convective development as
the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Surface temperatures
will warm into the upper 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding
over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly
strong, with modest veering profiles contributing to 25 kts of
effective bulk shear. Multicells will redevelop off of the outflow
boundary, and will pose a risk for a couple of severe gusts by
afternoon peak heating.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Rockies by afternoon
peak heating, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms,
which will move off of the higher terrain over eastern CO/northeast
NM. These storms will mature in an environment characterized by
modest mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear, especially as
they approach the CO/NE/KS border by afternoon peak heating. MLCAPE
may exceed 2000 J/kg amid elongated hodographs and 35 kts of
effective bulk shear. Both multicells and occasional supercells will
be the primary storm modes, accompanied by threats for isolated
severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 281711
SWODY2
SPC AC 281710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains on Friday.

...Sabine Valley vicinity...

An MCS will likely be ongoing Friday morning in the vicinity of a
stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from the ArkLaTex
toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of this activity and associated
outflow, a narrow corridor of heating into the mid 80s to near 90 F
amid 70s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range. Vertical shear is forecast to remain weak, but up to 25 kt
effective shear magnitudes could support organized/robust multi-cell thunderstorm activity along the surface boundary during the
afternoon/early evening. This activity could produce strong to
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

An upper shortwave impulse is forecast to track across the central
Rockies into the central Plains on Friday afternoon/evening. This
will support modestly enhanced west/northwest mid/upper flow. While
0-3 km flow will be light, vertically veering wind profiles will
foster 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop over higher terrain, and near a surface low over
western NE, during the afternoon. A mix of supercells and
multi-cells will develop east/southeast into modest boundary-layer
moisture where midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support MLCAPE
up to 2000 J/kg. Isolated large hail and sporadic strong/severe wind
gusts will be possible into early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/28/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 290600
SWODY2
SPC AC 290558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central
Plains tomorrow (Saturday).

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while
an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level
trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high
pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS
Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will
support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with
thunderstorm chances.

...High Plains into the southern and central Plains...
Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level
perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage
scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern
Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing
guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from
eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to
early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse
rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height,
contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such,
transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main
storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or
more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe
wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple
instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more
precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 291712
SWODY2
SPC AC 291711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central
Plains tomorrow (Saturday).

...Central/Southern High Plains/Great Plains vicinity...

An upper ridge will be centered over the southern/central Rockies on
Saturday. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to top the ridge and
move across the High Plains into the southern Plains during the
afternoon and evening. This will result in modestly increasing
mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow atop weak low-level winds,
resulting in around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes.

Latest forecast guidance indicates a weak surface low over NE and
another weak low over the TX/OK Panhandles by late afternoon. A cold
front will extend from central NE into western KS and then northeast
NM. Ahead of the front and surface lows, south/southeasterly
low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates. Where stronger heating occurs, 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE values will be possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop during the afternoon from central NE/KS southwestward
into western OK/TX and eastern NM. Given the overall marginal
thermodynamic and kinematic space, transient supercells and
multi-cell clusters will be possible, with gusty winds and
sub-severe hail most probable in stronger convection. Strong storms
may be most likely across parts of eastern NM into western TX where
stronger heating is expected. With time, clustering may result in
some upscale growth into a forward propagating MCS during the
evening/nighttime hours. However, severe potential still appears limited/uncertain, precluding probabilities.

..Leitman.. 08/29/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 300550
SWODY2
SPC AC 300548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains
tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge
builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly
mid-level flow regime will become established across the central
U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued
low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse
will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a
lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at
least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and
southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support
meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger
storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by
a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing
too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 301712
SWODY2
SPC AC 301710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low, though a couple of strong storms cannot be
ruled out in the southern Plains or Northwest Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Across much of the US, broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue
as a large upper trough persists over the eastern CONUS. To the
west, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Rockies,
allowing stronger northwesterly flow to develop over the central
portions of the country. Embedded within the modest flow aloft, a
weak vort max will move from the Rockies over the central/southern
Plains. A diffuse surface front will accompany this feature, serving
as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon/evening.

...Plains...
Ahead of the weak vort max and cold front, seasonably high surface
moisture will be in place over the Plains and Gulf Coast. Remnant
shower and thunderstorm activity should be ongoing at the start of
the period, likely limiting diurnal heating through the day. The
poor lapse rates and remnant cloud cover will favor only modest destabilization. Still, scattered storms should form and cluster
ahead of the front. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind
and hail cannot be ruled out. However, with vertical shear largely
sub 30 kt, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears
low.

...Northern Cascades...
West of the strong ridge, a weak upper low will meander off the
Northwest Coast. Weak ascent form this feature, and heating of the
air mass across central WA State could allow for isolated
thunderstorms late Sunday into early D3/Monday. However, strong
capping and the weak ascent casts some doubt on storm coverage.
Should storms form, a stray gust or two cannot be ruled out owing to
steep low-level lapse rates.

..Lyons.. 08/30/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 310550
SWODY2
SPC AC 310549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low for tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic upper flow over the eastern U.S., with upper ridging
west of the Rockies, will encourage a mid-level northwesterly flow
regime across the Plains. Surface high pressure will dominate east
of the MS River to the Atlantic Seaboard, and over the Rockies.
However, an axis of low-level moisture will remain in place across
the Plains, where daytime surface heating will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates should generally
remain around or under 6.5 C/km, contributing to tall and thin
MLCAPE profiles generally within the 500-1500 J/kg range.
Thunderstorm updrafts should not be overly intense. However, speed
shear, driven by the stronger northwesterly mid-level flow, will
result in modestly elongated hodographs, with over 35 kts of
effective bulk shear in spots. A few storms may become organized
multicells, likely accompanied by sub-severe wind and hail. However,
a couple storms could produce marginally severe gusts if stronger
buoyancy is realized. Severe probabilities have been withheld this
outlook, but may need to be introduced in subsequent outlooks if
instability is greater than currently forecast.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few
strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma,
the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona.

...Parts of KS/OK...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across
east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west
of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will
overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and
evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating
and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary
later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg
range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the
northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization
(generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and
uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region
result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding
development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms.

...North Dakota and vicinity...
Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening
across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately
unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be
modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few
strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat
stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then
severe probabilities may eventually be needed.

...Arizona...
At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts
of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as
modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies
regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could
support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into
the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds.

..Dean.. 08/31/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 010551
SWODY2
SPC AC 010550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest tomorrow (Tuesday).

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist along the Eastern
Seaboard while upper ridging continues west of the Rockies, with the
central U.S. placed under a northwesterly upper-flow regime tomorrow
(Tuesday). A large and pronounced embedded mid-level shortwave will
quickly translate southeastward from Canada and overspread the Upper
MS Valley through the day, encouraging a surface cold front to surge
southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front, a few of which
may be severe.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Preceding the cold front will be a warm and seasonally moist
airmass, overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding
MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range by afternoon.
Strengthening northwest flow with height will also yield modestly
curved and elongated hodographs and 35+ kts of speed/effective bulk
shear. These conditions will favor the development of multicells and
perhaps a transient supercell with the stronger updrafts that manage
to form ahead of the cold front. Isolated severe gusts or instances
of hail are plausible, warranting the introduction of Category
1/Marginal risk severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 011730
SWODY2
SPC AC 011729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered strong thunderstorm development is
possible across parts of the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, as well
as portions of the Southwest into Great Basin, late Tuesday
afternoon and evening. The risk for severe weather still appears
generally low, but a couple of storms could produce marginally
severe hail and localized strong surface gusts.

...Discussion...
In the mean, models indicate that mid/upper heights will remain
relatively high across much of the eastern Pacific into western
North America. However, an embedded blocking high across the
northeastern Pacific is forecast to become at least a bit less
prominent, and lower heights to its southeast and south may
consolidate. This latter regime includes a notable low, which may
undergo deepening while retrograding offshore of the Pacific
Northwest coast Tuesday through Tuesday night. At the same time, a
couple of weaker perturbations appear likely to slowly shift north-northeastward, inland of California and northern Baja
California coastal areas.

Downstream of this regime, large-scale mid/upper troughing will be
maintained to the east of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf
Basin, and reinforced by a vigorous short wave trough emerging from
the high latitudes. By Tuesday evening, this perturbation is
forecast to begin digging across the international border into the
northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest, accompanied by another cold
front.

Seasonably high moisture content, on the southern periphery of the
larger-scale cyclonic regime, has already become largely confined to
the subtropical latitudes, with further southward suppression
forecast across southern Texas and the Florida Peninsula through
this period. However, a tongue of more modest moisture lingers
inland across much of the Gulf Coast states and eastern Great
Plains, along the southwestern through western flank of the
troughing.

Weak to modest destabilization, with insolation, and forcing for
ascent associated with short wave perturbations embedded within the
evolving pattern are likely to support a number of areas of
scattered thunderstorm activity Tuesday through Tuesday night.
However, the risk for severe weather appears generally low across
most areas.

...Northern Great Plains...
The mid-level cold core of the approaching vigorous short wave
trough will remain post-frontal, but models suggest that a plume of
modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates ahead of the front
may contribute to destabilization sufficient for vigorous
thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon. It appears that
this may become focused across parts of the eastern Dakotas into
western Minnesota, where a residual pocket of boundary-layer dew
points as high as the lower/mid 60s may contribute to CAPE on the
order of 1000-2000+ J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest that
deep-layer shear will remain generally weak, but mid/upper forcing
for ascent might contribute to scattered upscale growing clusters
with potential to produce marginally severe hail and wind.

...Southwestern Deserts into Great Basin...
Areas of thunderstorm development will likely be rooted above a warm
and deeply mixed boundary layer, with thermodynamic profiles
conducive to at least isolated to widely scattered microbursts.
However, the extent to which convection may be able to grow upscale
into consolidating clusters, with outflow enhanced by downward
transfer of momentum associated with southeasterly to southerly
mid-level flow, remains unclear. Forecast ambient flow appears
generally on the order 15-25 kts, but perhaps with embedded stronger
speed maxima. It is possible that severe wind probabilities at or
above 5 percent may still be needed, if/when potential corridors
become more confidently evident.

..Kerr.. 09/01/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A risk of severe storms exists for portions of the central Plains.
Severe wind and hail are the primary threats, and an instance or two
of 2+ inch diameter hail is also possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify across the MS Valley region
while upper ridging persists over the Interior West tomorrow
(Wednesday). The central U.S. will be located within a deep-layer
northwesterly flow regime. A surface cold front will surge southward
across the central Plains, acting as a low-level lifting source (via convergence) for seasonal low-level moisture over the region. At
least scattered strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold
front during the afternoon. Given strong flow/shear and colder
temperatures aloft overspreading the pre-frontal airmass with the
passage of an embedded impulse, some of the storms are expected to
be severe.

...Central Plains...
As the surface cold front approaches central and eastern KS from the
north, surface temperatures may exceed 80 F amid mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this
airmass, MLCAPE may reach as high as 2500 J/kg in spots.
Kinematically speaking, veering low-level flow, overspread by strong northwesterlies will yield curved and elongated hodographs with
40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms are expected
to become supercells, accompanied by severe wind and hail. There are
some indications that a couple of stronger, sustained supercells may
develop across eastern KS during the late afternoon to early evening
hours. Given both the vertical shear profiles and colder
temperatures aloft, a couple instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a
tornado are possible.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 021704
SWODY2
SPC AC 021703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms will impact parts of the central
Great Plains into Missouri Ozarks late Wednesday afternoon and
evening, accompanied primarily by a risk for severe hail and
potential for damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
The large-scale mid/upper flow regime remains amplified across the
eastern mid-latitude Pacific through North America, with little
appreciable change forecast through this period. Troughing will be
maintained east of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, as far south as the
Gulf Basin into southwestern Atlantic, reinforced by a pair of
vigorous digging short wave perturbations emerging from the northern
mid- to Arctic latitudes of northwestern Canada.

The lead impulse is forecast to be in the process of digging across
the international border through portions of the northern U.S. Great
Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. Models indicate that
this will contribute to notable lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis
near/north of Lake Superior, toward the James Bay vicinity, through
daybreak Thursday, as the trailing perturbation digs southeast of
the Northwest Territories through eastern Canadian Prairies.

While one initial weakening frontal zone (and associated plume of
seasonably high moisture content) lingers across the central Gulf
through southern Florida Peninsula/Straits vicinity, an initial
reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air is forecast to surge into
the Ohio Valley and through much of the central Great Plains by late
Wednesday night. Another will begin nosing southward to the lee of
the Canadian toward northern U.S. Rockies.

...Central Great Plains into Missouri Ozarks...
Near the southwestern periphery of strengthening northwesterly
mid-level flow (including 40+ kt around 500 mb), models continue to
indicate that a plume of steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse
rates will advect across the central Great Plains toward adjacent
lower Missouri Valley vicinity during the day. Beneath this regime,
it appears that residual boundary-layer moisture will remain
sufficient to support the development of moderate potential
instability, generally becoming focused in a corridor along/ahead of
the southward advancing front and pre-frontal surface troughing by
late afternoon.

Uncertainties do linger due to continuing spread in the model
output, particularly with regard to the degree of mid/upper forcing
for ascent overspreading the region during the peak late afternoon
instability, to the southwest of the primary digging mid-level
trough/evolving low near the upper Great Lakes. With sufficient
lift to overcome mid-level inhibition, the sheared environment will
likely be conditionally conducive to organized severe convection.
It is possible that this could be limited to one or two supercells
and/or a small upscale growing cluster. However, this activity
could become capable of producing large hail and potentially
damaging wind gusts for at least a few hours late Wednesday
afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 09/02/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 030554
SWODY2
SPC AC 030553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
TENNESSEE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from east
Tennessee northward to the US-Canadian border across northern New
York on Thursday, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging
wind gusts.

... Synopsis ...

A highly amplified midlevel pattern will continue through
Thursday/Day-2 as a large ridge pushes north through western Canada
and a downstream trough persists across much of the eastern United
States. Within this amplified pattern, a seasonably cold midlevel
low will exist across Ontario, with multiple lobes of vorticity
rotating around the low. One such vorticity lobe/shortwave trough
will move east across the Great Lakes bringing with it increasing
ascent across portions of the eastern US.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the midlevel shortwave
trough will stretch through the Plains east-northeast into the lower
Great Lakes at the start of the forecast period. This cold front
will make slow progress southward across the Plains and faster
progress east across the eastern Great Lakes region.

... East Tennessee northward into Upstate New York ...

Seasonable moisture will be in place across the region ahead of the
advancing surface cold front. Diurnal heating of this airmass should
result in pockets of most-unstable CAPE up to 1500 J/kg to develop
by early afternoon across southern portions of the region to perhaps
750 J/kg across northern portions of the area.

Thunderstorms, or their remnants, ongoing across portions of eastern
Ohio and western Pennsylvania at the start of the period, should weaken/dissipate through the morning as they move east. These
showers/storms or their outflow may provide potential foci for
thunderstorm development/intensification during the afternoon. To
the west, increasing large scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough and low-level convergence along the surface cold
front should support additional bands of thunderstorms.

The best thermodynamics will reside across Tennessee and adjacent
areas, with the best deep-layer shear displaced to the north across
northern Pennsylvania and New York. However, the joint distribution
of forecast profiles of shear and buoyancy should favor thunderstorm organization into small multicell clusters or small linear segments,
with the strongest of these capable of some damaging wind potential.

..Marsh.. 09/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 031732
SWODY2
SPC AC 031731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO NEW
YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging
wind gusts may impact a corridor from the Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians northward through northern New York on
Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A deep/vertically stacked low pressure system will retrograde
slightly westward over Ontario through the forecast period, while
broad large-scale troughing encompasses much of the eastern CONUS.
An embedded midlevel trough will track eastward across the Lower
Great Lakes during the day, while a related cold front extending
from NY south-southwestward along the Appalachians moves gradually
eastward.

...TN Valley and Southern Appalachians northward into NY...
Despite poor midlevel lapse rates, diurnal heating amid middle/upper
50 to lower 60s dewpoints will result in a corridor of weak to
locally moderate surface-based buoyancy ahead of the front during
the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of
the front, where 30-40 kt of effective shear will promote loosely
organized multicell clusters and line segments. The stronger storm
clusters will be capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts
through the afternoon.

...Northern Plains...
On the backside of the large-scale trough, a robust midlevel speed
maximum will move into the northern Plains during the day. Strong
forcing for ascent and cold temperatures aloft will support isolated thunderstorms. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient for
organized storms, the post-frontal nature of this activity should
limit the overall severe risk.

..Weinman.. 09/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 040602
SWODY2
SPC AC 040600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms will be possible from the southern Plains into
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the afternoon into the
overnight hours. Isolated large hail and damaging winds may be
possible with the strongest storms.

... Synopsis ...

A seasonably strong/cold midlevel low will persist across Ontario,
with an attendant larger-scale trough persisting across much of the
eastern United States. A potent midlevel shortwave trough will be
across the Upper Great Lakes at the start of the period and will
quickly rotate around the upper low into Quebec through the period.
In its wake a midlevel ribbon of higher vorticity will be left
behind from Iowa northeast across Michigan. Upstream from this, the
midlevel height field will begin to respond to another shortwave
trough rotating around the Ontario low.

At the surface, a surface low will quickly lift northeast from
northern Michigan through Ontario and into Quebec through the
forecast period. A cold from will extend southwest from this low and
will push south and east as the surface low lifts northeast.
Although somewhat diffuse initially, the temperature gradient across
the cold front will rapidly strengthen through the day.

... Ohio and Tennessee Valleys ...

Diurnal heating should allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the
80Fs and 90Fs across the region. Given surface dewpoint temperatures
in the mid 60Fs perhaps as far north as southern Ohio, this heating
will result in most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg
across the area. The region will also be on the periphery of the
stronger midlevel flow, yield effective shear of around 40 knots.

Thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon in response to
increasing large-scale ascent associated with both differential
vorticity advection and frontal circulations. Given the degree of
instability and effective layer shear, initial thunderstorms may
exhibit supercellular structures. However, given the
temperature-dewpoint spreads on the order of 20F+ the expectation is
that thunderstorms should tend to favor upscale growth toward linear
segments. As such, thunderstorms may initially pose a hail threat,
especially across western Kentucky and Tennessee, but should
transition to more of a wind threat with eastward extent.

Across portions of Kentucky and southern Ohio, a short-window,
conditional tornado threat may evolve as thunderstorms develop in
the vicinity of the surface boundary. As thunderstorms interact with
or cross over the boundary, strong northeasterly surface winds will
enlarge low-level hodographs supporting at least some tornado
threat.

... Greater Arklatex Region ...

The surface cold front across the region is expected to strengthen
during the day as it slowly moves south. During the evening into the
overnight hours, strong warm-air advection on the nose of a
strengthening low-level jet may support thunderstorm development on
the cool side of the cold front. Despite surface temperatures in the
60Fs and low 70Fs, steep mid-level lapse rates atop the colder
surface layer may support isolated large hail.

..Marsh.. 09/04/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 041727
SWODY2
SPC AC 041726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
isolated large hail are expected across parts of the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys into the Central Appalachians on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A deep/vertically stacked cyclone will move gradually northward
across Ontario toward Hudson Bay through the period, as an
accompanying midlevel jet streak advances from the Great Lakes into
Quebec. Peripheral to the deep cyclone, broad midlevel troughing
will persist across much of the eastern CONUS. An accompanying cold
front will extend from the Great Lakes region southwestward across
the OH Valley into the southern Plains. Given the slowly
evolving/amplified upper-level pattern, the cold front will only
move gradually east-southeastward through the period.

...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Central Appalachians...
Ahead of the cold front, ample diurnal heating amid upper 60s
dewpoints will contribute to a moderately unstable (around 2500 J/kg
MLCAPE), uncapped pre-convective air mass. Potentially aided by a
convectively augmented midlevel impulse approaching the OH Valley
from the west, scattered thunderstorms should develop
along/immediately ahead of the front during the afternoon into evening/overnight. The aforementioned buoyancy and around 30-40 kt
of effective shear should promote convective organization into
clusters/small line segments and perhaps transient supercell
structures. The stronger/longer-lived storms will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail. The best
overlap of moderate buoyancy (higher with southward extent) and
favorable deep-layer shear (stronger with northward extent) should
exist over KY and surrounding states, where a Slight Risk was added.

...Mid-South into the Southern Plains...
The cold front will be oriented more west-east over this region,
with the stronger deep shear confined to the cool side of the
boundary. Additionally, convective initiation may occur later into
the evening/overnight hours along the sharpening cold front.
Nevertheless, moderate-strong buoyancy aided by steep deep-layer
lapse rates will promote strong storms capable of producing locally
damaging gusts and sporadic, marginally severe hail.

..Weinman.. 09/04/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will pose primarily a
risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
New England on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Troughing will remain across the Midwest into the Northeast on
Saturday. A cold front along/near the Appalachians will make
eastward progress through the day. Severe potential will focus along
and ahead of this front depending on where destabilization can
occur. Another shortwave trough will move through northern
California into the Northwest.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...
A surface cold front in the general vicinity of the Appalachians
will be the focus for potential afternoon thunderstorm development.
The timing of this feature remains uncertain in guidance. This
timing, along with cloud cover associated with the Great Lakes
trough, will play a large role in where destabilization can occur
during the afternoon.

Confidence in storm coverage is higher with northward extent given
the better mid-level ascent across southern New England. However,
this area also may have greater cloud cover concerns. Even so, there
are models that show temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s F.
Should these warmer temperatures occur, there will likely be a
narrow corridor of greater severe potential from southern New
England into northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region.
Strong/damaging winds would be the primary hazard as convection
mixes down the stronger 850 mb winds. Mid-level lapse rates will be
rather poor, though long hodographs could promote marginally severe
hail in any discrete storms that can develop and persist. Discrete
modes will likely be short-lived given the deep-layer flow parallel
to the cold front.

Farther south into the Piedmont, surface heating and buoyancy will
be greater. Shear will eventually taper off with southern extent.
However, mid-level ascent will be weaker with near neutral mid-level
height tendencies. Storm coverage may end up tied to locally greater
ascent from a subtle shortwave/MCV. Isolated wind damage would be
possible with the strongest storms.

...Northwest...
A compact shortwave trough should move through Oregon, favorably
timed with peak diurnal heating. Widely scattered to scattered
storms will be possible. Temperatures of around -13 to -15 C at 500
mb will support at least low-end buoyancy. The primary uncertainty
with regard to severe potential will be the quality of low-level
moisture. Most models suggest strong mixing will occur with the NAM
being the outlier with low-level moisture. There is additional
uncertainty in surface heating given smoke within the region.
Confidence in severe storm coverage is too low for probabilities,
but strong to marginally severe surface gusts and isolated hail
would be possible if greater moisture remains during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 09/05/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 051733
SWODY2
SPC AC 051732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are most likely Saturday
from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New
England. Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward
across the Piedmont.

...Synopsis...
A leading mid/upper level speed max will pivot northeastward across
Quebec on Saturday, with the right-entrance region sweeping across
much of the northeastern states. Given the trajectory, only subtle
height falls will occur over the region, but midlevel southwest
winds will increase to around 60 kt, enhancing deep-layer shear.

This cyclonic pattern aloft will extend well south across the
Appalachians, where winds will be much weaker. However, relatively
cool midlevel temperatures will aid destabilization in these areas.

At the surface, a cold front will push east from ME into northern
VA, with a moist air mass ahead of it. Winds at 850 mb will increase
to 30-40 kt across the Northeast, which will aid the northward
transport of moisture and destabilization.

...Northeast...
A wave of low pressure is forecast to develop over eastern PA early
in the day, translating northeastward along the front and into ME by
late afternoon. Stronger heating and steep low-level lapse rates
should develop from VA into eastern PA/NJ and into interior southern
New England, with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg as an areal average.

As the warm air mass develops and accelerates north ahead of the
cold front, both instability and shear parameter space will become
favorable for severe storms, including supercell potential. A line
of storms is expected by 17 to 18Z, from eastern PA toward the
Hudson Valley, expanding N/S and pushing east through the afternoon.
Given 40-50 kt effective deep-layer shear and enhanced low-level
shear with the midday surface theta-e surge, the initial storm mode
may be cellular along the boundary, with a brief tornado or two
possible along with some hail. Damaging winds are then most likely
as outflows merge, and spread east across the remainder of the
region through late afternoon.

...Piedmont...
Strong heating will occur across most of the area, with areas of
high-level clouds expected across the Appalachians. The
moist/uncapped air mass and weak surface trough should yield
scattered afternoon storms. Despite weak shear, favorable timing
with peak heating/steep boundary layer lapse rates as well as up to
2000 J/kg MUCAPE may yield locally strong to damaging downbursts. A
few storms could produce marginal hail given sufficient longevity.

..Jewell.. 09/05/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 060558
SWODY2
SPC AC 060556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great
Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas
east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts
of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the
southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin
on the western flank of the surface high.

...Eastern Carolinas...
Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern
Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern
extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover
will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered
convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains
region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or
two could develop and produce localized gusty winds.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will
develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to
develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the
lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak
inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any
activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the
central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing
convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet.
With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce
small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low.

..Wendt.. 09/06/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 061717
SWODY2
SPC AC 061715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low on Sunday.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

An upper level ridge will build over the Rockies/Western U.S. during
the day on Sunday, with some warming in mid/upper levels noted.
Near/after 00z, a weak shortwave impulse is forecast to eject east
from the central Rockies into the central Plains, resulting in
modest height falls and some forcing for ascent into CO/NE/KS. At
the surface, weak lee troughing will support southerly return flow,
and a narrow corridor of 50s to near 60 F dewpoints is forecast from
southwest NE into eastern CO and western KS, southward over far
eastern NM, and western TX/OK. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to
remain modest with RAP/NAM forecast soundings indicating 700-500 mb
lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km atop the modest boundary layer
moisture. This will support generally weak MLCAPE to around 1000
J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles (southerly low-levels
becoming northwesterly with height) will foster modest effective
shear magnitudes around 25 kt.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon into early
evening within the modestly unstable/moist boundary layer near the
surface trough. A low-level jet is forecast to increase during the
evening, and may aid in sustaining thunderstorms despite a cooling
boundary layer. A strong storm or two could produce small hail or
gusty winds, but overall severe potential appears limited given a
lack of stronger forcing/thermodynamic environment and concerns over
limited storm coverage.

...Coastal Carolinas into southeast GA...

Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will weaken with time and
southward extent as the stronger upper shortwave trough over the
Great Lakes/Northeast lifts northeast through the period. At the
surface, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front. This will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg during the afternoon. Vertical shear also will remain limited,
with weak flow through at least 700 mb evident in forecast
soundings. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates will likely limit severe
potential, but where stronger heating can occur, locally gusty winds
will be possible.

..Leitman.. 09/06/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 070549
SWODY2
SPC AC 070548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of the
central and southern High Plains Monday.

...Synopsis...
Northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S.,
flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough from
the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. An embedded shortwave trough
will emanate from the central Rockies into the Plains. At the
surface, a weak lee low should form over the Dakotas with a trailing
surface trough from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High
Plains. Southerly flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints
north/northeast within a narrow corridor over portions of the High
Plains northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN.

...Central and Southern Plains...
A moderately strong remnant low-level jet will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period aiding in modest return flow over the High
Plains. One or more clusters of storms may also be ongoing near the
apex of the LLJ across KS and NE. A narrow plume of 60s F surface
dewpoints will likely extend northward along the lee trough to the
low into the Dakotas. Heating of the moistening air mass and ascent
from the impinging shortwave moving out of the Rockies will support
diurnal destabilization along and east of the trailing lee trough,
potentially allowing for re-intensification of the early morning
storms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is also
possible by late afternoon along the length of the lee trough.
However, strong capping and early-day clouds/remnant convection
could limit storm coverage/development.

Should storms form/redevelop, moderate buoyancy and increasing
northwesterly flow aloft will support some storm organization.
Veering wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear
magnitudes would support a supercell or organized multicell risk.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and supportive shear could favor
some hail, while drier low-levels suggest damaging gusts are
possible.

...Pacific Northwest...
Ahead of the upper low moving onshore over the Northwest, scattered thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm but modestly moist air
mass. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy is expected to be fairly
weak as well. Still, steep lapse rates and the stronger mid-level
flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms
across central OR into southern WA.

..Lyons.. 09/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 071657
SWODY2
SPC AC 071655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of
western Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles
on Monday.

...KS/OK/TX...

A northwest flow regime will persist over the Plains as the western
upper ridge migrates east to the Rockies and a large-scale upper
trough persists east of the MS River. A weak, convectively enhanced
shortwave impulse will be located over KS Monday morning, shifting
east toward the Lower MO Valley by evening. Convection will likely
be ongoing across portions of central/eastern KS at the beginning of
the forecast period and persist for much of the day.

At the surface, a lee trough will extend north to south across the central/southern High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will
transport low 60s F dewpoints northward across western OK and the
TX/OK Panhandles into western KS beneath steepening midlevel lapse
rates. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during peak heating within
the narrow band of moisture near the surface trough. However, storm
coverage and intensity remain uncertain given potential influence
from outflow and cloud cover from the aforementioned convection
across central/eastern KS. If storms can develop and become
sustained, vertically veering/supercell wind profiles with
elongated/straight hodographs will support large hail (and
potentially some hail stones greater than 2 inches diameter). An
upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent
outlooks if confidence in storm coverage and initiation location
increases.

...NE to Upper Midwest...

A surface trough will extend northeast across western/central NE
into the Dakotas on Monday. Weak height falls are forecast in
association with a minor shortwave trough develop southeast from the
Canadian Prairies toward the international border. Southerly
low-level flow will support 60s F dewpoints east of the surface
trough and a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability will
develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings
suggest capping, along with weak forcing, will limit diurnal
thunderstorm activity. Warm advection and an increasing low level
jet during the evening/overnight may support elevated storms across
parts of northern MN/WI, but this activity is expected to remain
sub-severe. If any storm can develop within the narrow warm sector,
it could become strong, but overall severe potential is expected to
remain low.

...Pacific Northwest...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop as a low pressure system moves
onshore Monday afternoon/evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will
overspread a warm and weakly unstable airmass. Nevertheless, steep
lapse rates and stronger mid-level flow could support sporadic
strong gusts from high-based storms across central OR into southern
WA.

..Leitman.. 09/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 080555
SWODY2
SPC AC 080554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern
High Plains Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Amplified mid-level flow will be in place over much of the US
Tuesday, as a broad upper low continues to deepen over the
Northwest. To the east, shortwave ridging is forecast to intensify
over the central Rockies and High Plains, while broad and incoherent
troughing persist over the eastern half of the CONUS. Southwesterly
mid-level flow will gradually increase over the central High Plains
as a series of weak embedded perturbations pass through the crest of
the upper ridge. This will aide in strengthening a lee trough,
supporting south/southeasterly low-level flow and some severe storm
potential.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
As the mid-level ridge continues to build over the Rockies and
adjacent Plains, a lee trough is expected to sharpen from western SD
into the TX Panhandle. Continued low-level southerly flow will
advect seasonably rich moisture along and east of this feature,
supporting diurnal destabilization with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
available. However, forcing for ascent from several weak
perturbations passing through the top of the ridge is likely to
remain nebulous and displaced westward of the primary surface trough
axis. Residual capping, and the lack of broader synoptic support is
expected to limit diurnal thunderstorm development over the Plains.
Eventually isolated development is expected along the lee trough by
early evening, aided by an increase in the southerly low-level jet.
If these storms can become sustained, marginal supercell wind
profiles would support a risk for large hail and strong gusts from
western KS and southeastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity.
Still, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of any
stronger storms able to develop. Have introduced a 5% risk for hail
and wind potential.

To the west of the surface trough, strong heating and weak ascent
should allow isolated to widely scattered, likely high-based,
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain of CO/WY and
adjacent High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates
could support an occasional severe gust with this activity, but
limited buoyancy and modest flow aloft suggest little organized
severe threat.

...Upper Midwest...
A weak surface boundary/cold front will extend from eastern SD into northwestern IA and south-central MN Tuesday. Low-level warm
advection atop this boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly
unstable environment will support periods of showers and
thunderstorms as the front slowly sags southward. Overall severe
potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to
the cool side of the boundary and likely be elevated. But, a
stronger storm or two could develop and produce small hail or
locally gusty winds over portions of eastern SD and western MN.

..Lyons.. 09/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 081728
SWODY2
SPC AC 081726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern
High Plains Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level low will remain across the Pacific Northwest on
D2/Tuesday, with ridging across the Rockies in the central US.
Embedded mid-level disturbances cresting the ridge will bring west
to northwesterly flow across the Rockies into the Plains, promoting strengthening of the lee trough and development of weak low pressure
across eastern Colorado. Weak forcing from the low/lee trough will
support thunderstorm development across the Central and Southern
High Plains, with a few strong to severe storms possible across
western Kansas southward to the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Overall forcing for ascent will remain weak across the
central/southern high Plains beneath the upper ridge Tuesday.
Mid-level flow will be increasing through the day, with a
strengthening southerly low-level jet progged to develop by late afternoon/evening. Given the ridging aloft and weak forcing there is
some uncertainty to how much convection can develop and be
sustained.

Nonetheless, CAMs do suggest some isolated to scattered convection
are possible across the high terrain in Colorado/Wyoming and into
the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles by late afternoon. Daytime heating of
a seasonably moist air mass should yield MLCAPE around 1000-2500
J/kg. Deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will increase through the
evening with the low-level jet, with elongated straight hodographs
extending across much of western Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles.
Sufficient deep layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates overspreading this region could support potential for supercells,
with a conditional risk for large to very large hail and damaging
wind should a storm be able to sustain. Given some uncertainty on
coverage and sustained supercells, a Marginal Risk was maintained
and extended eastward across more of western Oklahoma.

...Upper Midwest...
A boundary extending from central Iowa into the Dakotas will support
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon.
The air mass south of this feature will be modestly
sheared/unstable. Thunderstorm development appears to be mainly
along and on the cool side of this boundary capable of small hail
and gusty winds. Within this region, a stronger storm or two may
develop but the overall severe threat appears low.

..Thornton.. 09/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 090554
SWODY2
SPC AC 090552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Northwest, northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the High
Plains Wednesday. A stronger storm or two is possible, but severe
potential is overall low.

...High Plains...
East of a deepening upper low and 40-50 kt mid-level jet over the
Great Basin and Northwest, shortwave ridging will persist across the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A broad lee trough is expected to
sharpen through the afternoon as weak ascent from the upper trough
and mid-level jet glance the western edge of the upper ridge. The
strongest ascent will be focused north and west over MT where a weak
surface cyclone is expected to form by Wednesday afternoon. This
will help draw richer low-level moisture westward later in the afternoon/evening. The late arrival of the more robust moisture
suggests buoyancy will be limited, while capping remains stout over
the northern and central High Plains. Still, robust heating and
sufficient low-level moistening will allow for isolated high-based thunderstorms along the length of the surface trough across eastern
MT/WY and western SD. A stray gust or two is possible, but limited
buoyancy and forcing suggest the severe risk is low.

Farther south, a weak secondary low is expected to form over the
Raton Mesa. Enhanced easterly low-level upslope flow could support
isolated storms late afternoon or into early evening. However, weak
subsidence and warm mid-level temperatures beneath the upper ridge
suggest remnant capping is likely to remain in place, limiting storm coverage/intensity. While moderate buoyancy is expected (1500-2500
J/kg) and an isolated stronger gust is possible, overall severe
potential appears rather limited.

...Northwest and northern Rockies...
Beneath the upper low, broad ascent and the southerly mid-level jet
will overspread modest low-level moisture ahead of a weak cold front
over the Intermountain West. Filtered daytime heating between
remnant cloud cover will aide in scattered storm development across
the higher terrain from eastern WA/OR into northern ID and western
MT Wednesday afternoon. The increase in southerly flow aloft will
elongate mid and upper-level hodographs to some degree, with 20-30
kt of bulk shear expected. This could support a few stronger storms,
especially over portions of central ID and into western MT where
ascent will be maximized. Given the steep low and mid-level lapse
rates, a few strong gusts are possible. However, the threat for more organized/persistent severe storms appears limited by weaker
buoyancy (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) and moisture.

..Lyons.. 09/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 091731
SWODY2
SPC AC 091730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the
High Plains Wednesday. A stronger storm or two is possible, but
severe potential is overall low.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will strengthen across the central CONUS on
Wednesday with a trough across the West Coast and a deepening trough
in the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will dominate much of the
eastern CONUS with low pressure across the Great Basin and weak lee
troughing across the High Plains.

...Discussion...
A dry, continental airmass will keep convection suppressed across
much of the eastern CONUS. Widespread convection is anticipated
across the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and the Southwest into
the Central Rockies in the diffluent region ahead of the mid-level
trough. These storms will be somewhat dry in nature with PWAT values
around 0.5 to 0.75 inches and steep low-level lapse rates.
Therefore, a few stronger downbursts are possible with isolated
severe wind gusts. However, relatively weak instability should limit
the overall severe potential across the west.

Greater instability will exist across the Plains, but building
heights aloft will likely keep storm coverage somewhat isolated. A
remnant MCS from Day 1 convection across western Kansas may persist
into the morning hours, but should be weakening through the morning
as it moves east of the low-level jet axis. Some guidance, such as
the NAM, shows significant augmentation of the mid-level height
field which could suppress heights enough for isolated thunderstorm
activity near the remnant outflow/MCV from morning convection on
Wednesday afternoon. However, this scenario is uncertain, and even
if it does occur, shear will likely be relatively weak and
therefore, any severe threat should be isolated.

..Bentley.. 09/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 100552
SWODY2
SPC AC 100551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and severe wind
potential are possible across Montana and the Dakotas. Additional
isolated strong storms may develop over the central High Plains and Intermountain West.

...Northern and central Plains...
South/southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to increase over the
Northern Rockies/Plains ahead of a shortwave trough along the
eastern periphery of a broader upper low. Weak height falls will
overspread the western fringes of a moistening low-level air mass as
a warm front moves northward with a surface cyclone over central MT.
Low-level upslope is expected much of the day along and north of the
front, which should result in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE
~1500-2500 J/kg). However, some inhibition is also expected given
the glancing influence of the upper ascent and warm mid-level
temperatures. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected late in the afternoon along and north of the warm front
from eastern MT into western ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
veering wind profiles could support some supercell structures. It
remain unclear if much of this activity will be surface based given
the best ascent will be north of the front. Still, the degree of
buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear should support some risk
for hail and severe gusts.

Farther south, isolated storms are possible near a surface trough
from eastern WY into western NE/SD. Forcing for ascent should be
weaker with some residual capping likely limiting development within
the warm sector. High-based storms may form within the drier air
west over the terrain before gradually drifting eastward toward the
richer surface moisture. With limited buoyancy and vertical shear,
organized severe storms are unlikely, but isolated severe gusts are
possible given the steep low-level lapse rates.

...Four Corners and Western Slope...
A belt of stronger mid-level flow southeast of the upper low over
the Great Basin will overspread a modified monsoon air mass in place
over northern AZ/NM into western CO and eastern UT. Afternoon
heating should result in a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE above
low-level inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Isolated to widely
scattered storms should develop and move off the higher terrain by
mid morning. Some organization of these storms into clusters or
transient supercells is expected owing to elongated mid-level
hodographs beneath the stronger flow aloft. Given the steep
low/mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe gusts and some small hail
are possible with the stronger storms.

..Lyons.. 09/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 101736
SWODY2
SPC AC 101734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and severe wind
potential are possible across portions of the Rockies,
central/northern High Plains into the Dakotas and northern Minnesota
on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
On Thursday, a large trough will be present across the western CONUS
with a strong ridge across the Plains and troughing across the east.
This pattern will shift slowly east through the day. Surface high
pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS with lee troughing
in the central and northern High Plains.

...Eastern Montana/northern Wyoming into the Dakotas and northern
Minnesota...
A cluster of storms may be ongoing across northern North Dakota at
the start of the period. A moderate low-level jet is forecast to
maintain intensity (and perhaps strengthen somewhat) during the day.
This may result in maintenance of this cluster and restrengthening
during the afternoon across southern Canada and perhaps into
northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Moderate instability
and moderate shear, combined with steep lapse rates, will support
the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts as these storms
move east.

Cooling temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will lead to
scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across much of the
higher terrain across Wyoming and Montana. Modest deep-layer shear
and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for some
organized storms including supercells. These storms may produce
isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

A more conditional severe environment will be present across eastern Wyoming/Montana and into the western Dakotas. Stronger instability
(2000 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast across the region, but only
weak height falls will be present with at least some residual
capping from most forecast soundings. Some weak
convergence/confluence will be present along the lee trough/dryline
which could initiate a few storms. If storm form within this region,
moderate deep-layer shear could support supercells capable of large
hail and severe wind gusts. If this scenario appears more likely, a
Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks, particularly across
eastern Montana and western North Dakota.

...Central Rockies...
Moderate to strong shear will be present across the Rockies as a 45
to 60 knot mid-level jet streak overspreads the region. Weak height
falls, terrain driven circulations, and weak diffluence aloft will
combine for widespread thunderstorm development Thursday
afternoon/evening. RAP forecast soundings show 500 to 750 J/kg
MLCAPE and 1000-1300 J/kg MUCAPE at KGJT which is well above the
90th percentile and near the all time maximum for mid-September in
GJT based on SPC sounding climatology. This abnormally unstable
airmass combined with moderate shear will result in an environment
capable of a few weak supercells producing isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts across eastern Utah, the Four Corners region, much
of Colorado, and southern Wyoming.

..Bentley.. 09/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 110557
SWODY2
SPC AC 110555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are
possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms
are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow will move out of
the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Friday as upper
ridging begins to move eastward. Associated with the approaching
trough, a weak lee cyclone along a stalled front over the Dakotas
will draw rich low-level moisture westward toward a second weak cold
front moving out of the Rockies. Modest ascent is expected much of
the day along and north of the surface low/front across northern WY,
western ND and central/eastern MT. While cloud cover and early
morning convection may temper heating somewhat, elevated buoyancy is
expected to support scattered to numerous storms through the
afternoon. With 35-45 kt of southwesterly flow aloft extending mid
and upper-level hodographs, a few elevated clusters or supercells
are possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear could support isolated hail and strong gusts with the
strongest storms, though confidence in the overall severe risk
remains fairly low given the potential for clouds and early morning
storms.

Convective coverage may increase through the evening and overnight
hours as a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet develops over the
Plains. CAM guidance remains quite dispersive, but some solutions
show the potential for isolated severe gusts with elevated storm
clusters moving eastward across the Dakotas overnight.

A second cluster of elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning
of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western MN associated with
a weak shortwave trough and low-level warm advection along the
stalled front. If this occurs, a low-end wind/hail threat could
exist during the morning as the shortwave continues
east/southeastward toward the Great Lakes. Buoyancy and ascent
should decrease quickly with eastward extent suggesting only a
limited severe risk.

...Four Corners...
A shortwave trough and an associated belt of stronger southwesterly
flow aloft will be present over portions of the eastern Great Basin
and central Rockies Friday. An associated cold front will also shift
eastward, impinging upon a modified monsoon air mass across northern
AZ/NM into eastern UT and western/central CO. A band of showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms are likely be ongoing early in the
period ahead of the front. While moisture content (PWATS 0.5-0.8
inches) will not be overly robust, it should be sufficient to
support weak diurnal destabilization amid cloud cover and remnant showers/storms. Convection should gradually increase in coverage
along the front and across the higher terrain by late morning and
early afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow could allow for a few
storms to organize into mutlicell clusters or weak supercells. With
steep low and mid-level lapse rates present, strong gusts appear
possible with any sustained storms, along with small hail.

..Lyons.. 09/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 111706
SWODY2
SPC AC 111705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS....

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are
possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms
are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow will move out of
the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Friday as upper
ridging begins to move eastward. Associated with the approaching
trough, a weak lee cyclone along a stalled front over the Dakotas
will draw rich low-level moisture westward toward a second weak cold
front moving out of the Rockies. Modest ascent is expected much of
the day along and north of the surface low/front across northern WY,
western ND and central/eastern MT. While cloud cover and early
morning convection may temper heating somewhat, elevated buoyancy is
expected to support scattered to numerous storms through the
afternoon. With 35-45 kt of southwesterly flow aloft extending mid
and upper-level hodographs, a few elevated clusters or supercells
are possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear could support isolated hail and strong gusts with the
strongest storms, though confidence in the overall severe risk
remains fairly low given the potential for clouds and early morning
storms.

Convective coverage may increase through the evening and overnight
hours as a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet develops over the
Plains. CAM guidance remains quite dispersive, but some solutions
show the potential for isolated severe gusts with elevated storm
clusters moving eastward across the Dakotas overnight.

A second cluster of elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning
of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western MN associated with
a weak shortwave trough and low-level warm advection along the
stalled front. If this occurs, a low-end wind/hail threat could
exist during the morning as the shortwave continues
east/southeastward toward the Great Lakes. Buoyancy and ascent
should decrease quickly with eastward extent suggesting only a
limited severe risk.

...Four Corners...
A shortwave trough and an associated belt of stronger southwesterly
flow aloft will be present over portions of the eastern Great Basin
and central Rockies Friday. An associated cold front will also shift
eastward, impinging upon a modified monsoon air mass across northern
AZ/NM into eastern UT and western/central CO. A band of showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms are likely be ongoing early in the
period ahead of the front. While moisture content (PWATS 0.5-0.8
inches) will not be overly robust, it should be sufficient to
support weak diurnal destabilization amid cloud cover and remnant showers/storms. Convection should gradually increase in coverage
along the front and across the higher terrain by late morning and
early afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow could allow for a few
storms to organize into mutlicell clusters or weak supercells. With
steep low and mid-level lapse rates present, strong gusts appear
possible with any sustained storms, along with small hail.

..15_ows.. 09/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 111730
SWODY2
SPC AC 111705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS....

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are
possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms
are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow will move out of
the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Friday as upper
ridging begins to move eastward. Associated with the approaching
trough, a weak lee cyclone along a stalled front over the Dakotas
will draw rich low-level moisture westward toward a second weak cold
front moving out of the Rockies. Modest ascent is expected much of
the day along and north of the surface low/front across northern WY,
western ND and central/eastern MT. While cloud cover and early
morning convection may temper heating somewhat, elevated buoyancy is
expected to support scattered to numerous storms through the
afternoon. With 35-45 kt of southwesterly flow aloft extending mid
and upper-level hodographs, a few elevated clusters or supercells
are possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear could support isolated hail and strong gusts with the
strongest storms, though confidence in the overall severe risk
remains fairly low given the potential for clouds and early morning
storms.

Convective coverage may increase through the evening and overnight
hours as a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet develops over the
Plains. CAM guidance remains quite dispersive, but some solutions
show the potential for isolated severe gusts with elevated storm
clusters moving eastward across the Dakotas overnight.

A second cluster of elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning
of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western MN associated with
a weak shortwave trough and low-level warm advection along the
stalled front. If this occurs, a low-end wind/hail threat could
exist during the morning as the shortwave continues
east/southeastward toward the Great Lakes. Buoyancy and ascent
should decrease quickly with eastward extent suggesting only a
limited severe risk.

...Four Corners...
A shortwave trough and an associated belt of stronger southwesterly
flow aloft will be present over portions of the eastern Great Basin
and central Rockies Friday. An associated cold front will also shift
eastward, impinging upon a modified monsoon air mass across northern
AZ/NM into eastern UT and western/central CO. A band of showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms are likely be ongoing early in the
period ahead of the front. While moisture content (PWATS 0.5-0.8
inches) will not be overly robust, it should be sufficient to
support weak diurnal destabilization amid cloud cover and remnant showers/storms. Convection should gradually increase in coverage
along the front and across the higher terrain by late morning and
early afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow could allow for a few
storms to organize into mutlicell clusters or weak supercells. With
steep low and mid-level lapse rates present, strong gusts appear
possible with any sustained storms, along with small hail.

..15_ows.. 09/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and
central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The western upper trough will continue its slow progress eastward on
Saturday. The trough is expected to eject into central Plains by
early Sunday morning. A few embedded shortwave troughs will pivot
into the northern Plains and stronger mid-level winds will extend
into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a low in the northern
Plains will become more diffuse during the period.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
On the southern edge of the broad western trough, stronger mid-level
flow will be perpendicular to the southern Rockies into part of the
Front Range. Low-level moisture will advect into the regions given
surface southeasterly winds. Moisture will be greatest in New Mexico
with mid/upper 50s F dewpoints. Farther north, flow will become much
more meridional and moisture will be more limited. Within the
southern Rockies, cloud cover associated with the trough will
generally keep low-level lapse rates weak. However, modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates with the cooler air aloft and 35-40 kts of
effective shear will promote some risk for a few supercell
structures by the afternoon. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk. While a similar hail threat will be present for much of the
Front Range, this area is also more likely to receive greater
surface heating. Steeper low-level lapse rates will support a threat
for isolated severe gusts with the strongest storms.

...Northern Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period. By this time, steeper mid-level lapse rates will likely have
diminished for much of the western Dakotas into eastern Montana and
Wyoming. This activity will be driven by a northward moving
shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Despite cloud cover
complicating the low-level thermodynamic environment and the surface
low gradually weakening with time, there may still be zone of
greater potential in the eastern Dakotas where steeper mid-level
lapse rates will be. Greater shear/forcing will overlap greater
buoyancy during the afternoon in this area as well. The strongest
storms, if they develop, will likely be near and east of the
Missouri River. Small to isolated marginally severe hail appears to
be the primary hazard.

...Upper Midwest...
A weak shortwave trough is expected to move through southern
Wisconsin into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. This will
promote a zone of warm advection that will allow potentially
scattered storms to develop. While shear will be modestly enhanced
with the shortwave, greater buoyancy and lapse rates will be
displaced to the west. A stronger storm or two could occur, but
limited confidence in greater severe storm coverage precludes
probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 121720
SWODY2
SPC AC 121718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and
central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern
Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the
central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and
into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the
surface low will strengthen.

...Southern/central High Plains...
Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate
widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday
morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the
Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of
the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to
moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low
70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb
temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through
the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the
afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the
western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe
weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of
clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe
threat in localized areas.

...Northern Plains...
Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas
on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where
isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability
and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of
effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this
morning round of storms.

In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal
inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle,
but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be
sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday
afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and
severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear.

Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is
likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough
ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height
falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated
instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of
large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early
Sunday morning.

...Midwest/western Great Lakes...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning
across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a
low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be
possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this
cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as
it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While
this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of
morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional
thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along
remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless
of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong
shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least
a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 130552
SWODY2
SPC AC 130551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern
Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted upper trough will pivot northward across the central/northern Plains, around broader cyclonic flow aloft, as a
second upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
(Sunday). A surface low will develop and intensify while drifting
northward across the Dakotas through the forecast period.
Strengthening of the low will encourage the development of a
southerly low-level jet, which will result in both northward
moisture advection, and increased vertical wind shear, to support at
least isolated severe storms across the Plains.

...Great Plains States...
Widespread clouds and precipitation may be underway at the start of
the period (12Z Sunday) given the warm-air advection regime in place
ahead of the surface low. Through the day, some breaks in the cloud
cover will support adequate insolation to generate surface-based
buoyancy ahead of a confluence boundary. Surface temperatures may
rise into the 70s F, amid 60+ f dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE in spots. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to be
modest at best (e.g. 6-7 C/km), with the aforementioned MLCAPE
constrained to tall, thin profiles. However, 20-40 kt southerly flow
at 850 mb (driven by the low-level jet), overspread by 40-50 kts of south-southwesterly 500 mb flow, will yield elongated, mainly
straight hodographs across the central/northern Plains. Effective
bulk shear of 35-45 kts is possible from NE northward, with weaker
values, but relatively more curved hodographs possible farther south
into the southern High Plains.

By afternoon peak heating, the rejuvenation of warm-sector
convection ahead of the confluence band is likely, with scattered
multicells and perhaps supercells possible from the Dakotas to the
TX Panhandle. Storms will first develop across the northern Plains
by early afternoon, with gradual southward development likely by
early evening. Given modest lapse rates/thin CAPE profiles amid
straight hodographs, the severe threat appears relatively isolated,
with occasional severe gusts/hail the main threats. A tornado is
possible over the northern Plains if a supercell can become
sustained within the low-level jet axis and traverse a corridor of
locally stronger surface-based buoyancy. The severe threat should
gradually wane after dark, when surface-based buoyancy diminishes
with nocturnal cooling and increased MLCINH.

..Squitieri.. 09/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)