ABNT20 KNHC 221144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form
this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become
less organized overnight. While there is still some chance that a
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive
environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more
favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores
has weakened overnight, and no development is expected while it
drifts northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 221751
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a trough of low pressure located
about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the
southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required on
Saturday. For additional information, including gale warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain
disorganized. While there is still some chance that a short-lived
tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system
is expected to move through a less conducive environment into
Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable
environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches
the Windward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 231156
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed
about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. A
tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with
further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while
the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air
Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low
this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of
this system as watches could be still required later today. For
additional information, including gale warnings, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the
next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20
mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on
Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, conditions over the
central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further
development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 241139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernand, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands have increased since
yesterday. However, the wave does not appear to have a surface
circulation. This system could still become a tropical depression
during the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about
20 to 25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands
later today and early Monday. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely across portions of the
Windward and Leeward Islands today and Monday. The system is
expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where
conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional
development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 251131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernand, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system has become
less organized since yesterday, and further development is not
anticipated as it moves quickly westward during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 261116
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernand, located over the central Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 281118
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernand, located over the central Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, moving across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 291140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 301137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 311141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is about emerge off of the west coast of Africa.
Environmental conditions are conducive for slow development of this
system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15
mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 011137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system, and
a tropical depression could form later this week or next weekend.
This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at
around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
throughout the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 021126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic south
of the Cabo Verde islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next several days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this
weekend. This system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic through the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 031121
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde islands continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this week or this weekend. This system is expected to
move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic into early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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ABNT20 KNHC 041124
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have started to consolidate
and become slightly better organized. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development of this system during the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or
this weekend over central tropical Atlantic while moving slowly
toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph. The system is likely to
move faster toward the west or west-northwest thereafter and reach
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 051132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic,
associated with a tropical wave, is producing a disorganized area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form over the weekend or early next week as it moves slowly
westward at 5 to 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. This
system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to
latter part of next week, and interests there should monitor its
progress.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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ABNT20 KNHC 061139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive for development, and the
chances of this system becoming a tropical depression are
decreasing. The wave is expected to move generally westward at 10
to 15 mph, and will likely be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle
part of next week. Interests there should monitor its progress.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 071124
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 081118
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 101132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 111131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa by
Friday. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of the system over the weekend into early next week as
the wave moves to the west or west-northwest at about 15 mph over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 121133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern
Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system over the next several days. A
tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 131156
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity over the far eastern
Atlantic. Dry and stable air will likely limit this system's
development over the next few days, but a tropical depression could
form by the middle to latter part of next week while moving
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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