ACUS11 KWNS 052201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052201=20
MDZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-060000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...the Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052201Z - 060000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening to the northeast of recently issued WW 606, most probable
across western to northern West Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Initially small discrete cells have been slow to
develop in the Upper OH Valley region of southeast OH and western
WV, where MLCAPE is progressively weaker with northeast extent from
the TN Valley. But with stronger southwesterly to west-southwesterly
deep-layer shear, there is potential for a few of these cells to
acquire mid-level rotation and perhaps grow upscale into a small
cluster. The most probable corridor for this to occur is across
western to northern WV where 80s surface temperatures are common.
Cooler temperatures and dew points into PA should spatially confine
severe potential from far southwest PA southwestward.

..Grams/Mosier.. 09/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9QGB8ufC1hU4mSmwtvCMAK_GBZMF1y1D3AB_wTNAQzECmZSe7uGziFLG6PGGx780iopk8wJ9b= u6HZ2EHya2kTR6KN0E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 40357963 39677939 38088120 37838208 37978240 38168280
38408281 38968253 39738139 40378058 40357963=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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