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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2037

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, September 05, 2025 23:00:20
    ACUS11 KWNS 052300
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052259=20
    TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2037
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0559 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

    Areas affected...Middle TN and far north AL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606...

    Valid 052259Z - 060100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A more concentrated swath of strong to localized severe
    gusts is possible with potential for a slow-moving cluster to
    accelerate across mainly southern Middle Tennessee through
    mid-evening.

    DISCUSSION...The deepest convective cores have persisted over the
    past couple hours across southwest TN. These have congealed into an
    initially slow-moving cluster into southern Middle TN with forward
    motion of only 15-20 kts. But with strengthening of the surface
    temperature gradient, from upper 60s in the emerging cold pool to
    85-90 F persisting ahead of the outflow, a more concentrated swath
    of strong to localized severe gusts may evolve over the next 2-3
    hours. This would be coincident with probable acceleration of the
    cold pool that yields more moderate westerly storm motions into
    mid-evening. This might eventually approach the southeastern edge of
    WW 606 and necessitate a local areal extension. Weak low-level west-southwesterlies evident in area VWP data does lower confidence
    on just how robust the damaging wind threat may become.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 09/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6PZQW2NKeuzen_WyJHTtMBri4iD9GkjyJqVIclf1xjNHSskIcW3D2bq830IXe1yotm2bVg2bq= n0iuGQQvS1b3D2S_ys$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35808757 36028694 36128610 36018547 35588533 35228532
    34868547 34708578 34638702 34658780 34668835 34978833
    35428779 35808757=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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