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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2043

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, September 06, 2025 17:27:52
    ACUS11 KWNS 061727
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061727=20
    VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-061930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2043
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern VA. southern MD...and=20
    northern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061727Z - 061930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing
    severe-thunderstorm potential this afternoon. The stronger storms
    will be capable of producing damaging winds and isolated severe
    hail. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being
    monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is becoming increasingly
    agitated along a prefrontal trough extending from central/eastern VA
    into northern NC, and initial signs of convective initiation are
    evident. Continued diurnal heating/destabilization amid lower 70s
    dewpoints should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
    development over the next few hours. Despite poor midlevel lapse
    rates, the warm/moist PBL will still yield moderate surface-based
    buoyancy, which will favor gradual updraft intensification.
    Additionally, around 35 kt of effective shear may promote loosely
    organized cells/clusters, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts
    and isolated/sporadic marginally severe hail. Current thinking is
    that the severe threat will be too localized/marginal for a watch,
    though trends are being monitored.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/06/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5g0lQO4wl7cCFdEVvXtM6BEjRPLPBFWNtbiVUS_n0FbB039dXOIjyuCZ476hhL4HuBKLC6uIj= tRP6SSpSGVgyUfghJc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36707962 37807819 38887753 39127731 38967663 38577635
    36907696 36157807 35857875 35927934 36217971 36707962=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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