ACUS11 KWNS 110010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110010=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-110145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Areas affected...Southwest NE Panhandle vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 110010Z - 110145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple hours of severe hail and wind are possible with a
pair of slow-moving supercells before convection weakens after dusk.

DISCUSSION...Convection near the WY/NE border has consolidated into
a pair of nearly stationary supercells. This recent organization
appears to be in response to some strengthening of both mid-level west-southwesterlies and low-level southerlies in CYS VWP data. The
latter has also supported an influx of 50-54 F surface dew points,
which has aided in the supercell intensification. However, this will
likely be transient/short-lived, similar to how convection had
pulsed up and weaken along the south slope of the Black Hills in far
southwest SD. Onset of nocturnal boundary-layer cooling and large
surface temperature/dew point spreads should foster
outflow-dominated cells that have pronounced weakening after dusk.

..Grams/Hart.. 09/11/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!96TZFGJ1A9LRusMEnaPty-v83IJyNsYQK40fmLyf_6I-GKnOi5TlM4jeJtyh-Jw6VWpVueTTW= 7utz4fCAk2acUlmO3Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41820347 41570259 41080258 40790326 40900388 41170419
41650397 41820347=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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