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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2060

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, September 11, 2025 20:47:48
    ACUS11 KWNS 112047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112047=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-112245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2060
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0347 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of western SD/NE...far eastern WY...northeast
    CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112047Z - 112245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storm development is underway this afternoon across
    parts of the CO Front Range into southeast WY. Farther north, strong
    heating has occurred from parts of the NE Panhandle into western SD.
    The strongest instability resides across parts of western SD, where
    the 18Z UNR sounding (modified for recent surface observations)
    depicts steep tropospheric lapse rates and MLCAPE above 2000 J/kg.
    Effective shear of 30-40 kt across this area is favorable for
    organized convection, though coverage of storms remains somewhat
    uncertain in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent. Any storm
    that can mature within this environment could pose a threat for both
    severe hail and wind, given the favorable lapse rates.=20

    Farther south, there is some potential for ongoing convection to
    intensify as it moves eastward into a somewhat more moist and
    unstable environment across northeast CO into the NE Panhandle,
    though MLCINH also increases with eastward extent. Sufficient
    deep-layer shear will support some potential for organized storms,
    including potential for isolated severe hail/wind.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 09/11/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6LjL1bx7DcO8ewqixgu6uXlxN1-lJH3sqXoKcSEc6CPQq49peHttozmt3v-wNt8bVFsr3-VXm= piwtCMvmMj_Gry2AlA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41020485 44830410 45740373 45780268 45820193 44360178
    42660196 41670209 41040223 40040284 39630341 39580374
    39540424 39640462 40160471 41020485=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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