ACUS11 KWNS 120312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120311=20
NDZ000-120515-

Mesoscale Discussion 2061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120311Z - 120515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few more instances of severe hail may occur over the
next few hours with any discrete supercells that form or persist.

DISCUSSION...Isolated, splitting supercells have developed along or
immediately north of a quasi-stationary baroclinic boundary, and
have produced severe hail over the past hour. These storms are
likely elevated amid an environment where MLCINH continues to
increase. When also considering weak forcing for ascent, questions
remain if additional storms will form, and if the ongoing supercells
will persist. Nonetheless, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35+ kts of
effective bulk shear will continue to support the potential for severe-hail-producing supercells for at least a couple more hours.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8gWzQ0yCCndMxVKhj8K-pRGVQsb1bWoDruTGQPGf_Rn3eMMRAb57PB93iIllt_nUzXgI1x0H8= TLwMs7BQLriIzstuYc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48560388 48830146 48709934 48309801 47859763 47459812
47359937 47390090 47580233 47900329 48080348 48560388=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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