ACUS01 KWNS 231937
SWODY1
SPC AC 231935

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous
discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 01/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/

A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains
this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across
much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently
steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional
thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern
OK where freezing p-types are anticipated.

Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a
moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions
suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front -
mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot
be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit
the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240038
SWODY1
SPC AC 240037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.

...01z Update...

Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the
southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the
polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA.
This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region
later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for
elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance
continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the
front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not
particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is
expected to remain weak.

..Darrow.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240524
SWODY1
SPC AC 240522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast...

Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the
central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of
the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response
to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar
front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across
southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model
guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern
Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately
for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of
the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least
slightly elevated in nature.

Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust
thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will
surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern
for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the
coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears
too low to warrant a MRGL Risk.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241245
SWODY1
SPC AC 241243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

...Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley/Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just
off the coast of the central Baja Peninsula. Deep southwesterly flow
aloft extends northeastward from this low across Mexico and the
southern Plains before joining the more confluent, single-stream southwesterlies in place from the MS Valley eastward.

A subtle shortwave trough is currently progressing northeastward
across central TX within the belt of stronger flow preceding the
upper low, contributing to some deeper convective cores over the
region. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue northeastward,
resulting in an expansion of precipitation downstream. Forecast
soundings do show some minimal buoyancy, supporting the potential
for some deeper convective cores capable of lightning. Highest
thunderstorm chances will be concentrated across southern LA, but
low probabilities also exist farther north where low-level profiles
will be cold enough for freezing rain and/or sleet.

The Baja upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the
day, moving across central Mexico and reaching central TX by early
tomorrow morning. Evolution of this low will encourage northeastward progression of a surface low along the surging arctic cold front.
This will take the low from its current location over deep south TX
quickly northeastward over the northwest Gulf basin, across southern
LA and to the central AL/MS border vicinity. Strong low-level
southerly flow is anticipated ahead of the upper low and associated
surface low as well, with this overall evolution contributing to
rapid airmass modification from the central Gulf Coast into central
AL and MS. Even with this modification, most forecast soundings
depict a boundary layer that does not recover adequately for
surface-based convection.

General expectation is for ascent attendant to this system to
support another round of precipitation beginning over east TX after
06Z before expanding northeastward with time. Some very modest
buoyancy is possible atop a strong warm noise, with isolated
elevated thunderstorms possible. This thunder potential includes
areas from east TX across northern/central LA into northern MS where
surface temperatures will be below freezing, suggesting some
lightning is possible with mixed winter precipitation.

...Southwest...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress cyclonically from central
CA into AZ during the period. Cold mid-level temperatures combined
with ascent from the shortwave will support the potential for a few
isolated thunderstorms across central and southeast AZ and southwest
NM from the late afternoon through tonight.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241543
SWODY1
SPC AC 241542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.

..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241957
SWODY1
SPC AC 241956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes to the thunderstorm forecast were made based on
current observations. Cold air remains in place across the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon with ongoing and expected
precipitation reinforcing this airmass through Sunday morning. As
previously mentioned, a slow improvement in the environment is
possible from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and
western Alabama. Given the current observations, it may take longer
to move warm/moist air inland than expected. Confidence in this
occurring before 12Z Sunday remains too low for severe
probabilities. See the previous forecast for additional information.

..Wendt.. 01/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026/

...LA/MS/AL Overnight...
The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf
coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary
upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly
low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture
northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will
result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer
vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong
convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of
this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain
less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250051
SWODY1
SPC AC 250049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Southern-stream upper low is beginning to eject across northern
Mexico. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well and
scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of the primary midlevel
vort just south of the international border. Isolated thunderstorms
are noted north of the border across southeast AZ, but this activity
should gradually weaken over the next few hours. However, stronger
forcing is expected to aid elevated convection that will spread
across portions of far West TX this evening and thunderstorm
probabilities will reflect this risk through at least 06z tonight.
Downstream, warm advection will continue to be the primary mechanism
for more sporadic thunderstorms atop the cooler polar air mass.
Additionally, boundary layer destabilization will be retarded across
the lower MS Valley through 12z, and for this reason robust
thunderstorms are not forecast.

..Darrow.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250527
SWODY1
SPC AC 250526

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...01z Update...

Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the
Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates
across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z.
Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and
a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the
Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern
LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance
suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the
surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly
100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the
order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where
surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer
shear, convection that develops within this environment would have
some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these
reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251247
SWODY1
SPC AC 251245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast
states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Portions of the Southeast States...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave
trough moving across the southern Plains and into the more
single-stream confluent flow across the eastern CONUS. Surface
analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the
central MS/AL border vicinity. A cold front extends from this low
southwestward through southeast LA and into the western Gulf.
Combination of these features compose the large winter storm system
that is impacting much of the central and eastern CONUS.

Recent regional radar imagery and surface observations reveal an
extensive area of anafrontal showers and thunderstorms from east TX
into MS and TN Valley. Much of this precipitation is falling as
either freezing rain or sleet, with sporadic lightning accompanying
this winter precipitation across east TX, northern/central LA, and western/northwestern MS. Currently, the warm sector, which extends
from southeast LA across southern AL and southern MS into the FL
Panhandle, is free of any thunderstorms. This is expected to change
throughout the morning as continued moisture advection further
modifies the airmass and modest buoyancy develops ahead of the
advancing cold front. Despite the fast progression of the cold
front, strong deep-layer vertical shear should allow for the
maintenance of deep convection along the frontal zone once it begins
to encounter the modest buoyancy. Additionally, the strong vertical
shear should also allow for some organization/rotation within any
deeper, more persistent updrafts.

Damaging gusts appear to be the primary severe risk, with the risk
concentrated from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle into
southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle where the best
thermodynamics (i.e. 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) are forecast.
Low-level shear is strong enough to support a tornado risk in this
area as well, with the linear nature of the convection favoring
brief cell-in-line/QLCS circulations (in contrast to a more
discrete, supercellular mode). A few discrete cells ahead of the
line cannot be entirely ruled out. However, limited residence time
due to the fast-moving front and likely shallow character due to
limited buoyancy should prevent these updrafts from maturing.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251605
SWODY1
SPC AC 251603

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast
states this afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the
main concerns.

...AL/GA/FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track
rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale
forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the
development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now
extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front,
southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and
result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few
severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few
tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the
developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the
main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.

..Hart/Bentley.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251955
SWODY1
SPC AC 251953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Southeast
states this afternoon, with damaging gusts and a few tornadoes
possible mainly across southern Georgia and northern Florida.

...20z Update...
A northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-linear band of convection with
embedded bows and occasional transient circulations continues to
progress eastward at mid-afternoon across southwest Georgia, extreme
southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Scenario will remain
favorable, particularly over the next several hours (through late
afternoon) for damaging winds and a tornado risk across
southwest/toward south-central Georgia as well as nearby north
Florida, especially near a surface wave and along/south of a
northward-shifting warm front. Latest WSR-88D VWP data from
Tallahassee continues to imply 250+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH, while
middle/upper 60s F surface dewpoints, with a few 70F observations,
are becoming more common within the inland-expanding warm sector.

..Guyer.. 01/25/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026/

...AL/GA/FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track
rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale
forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the
development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now
extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front,
southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and
result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few
severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few
tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the
developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the
main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260029
SWODY1
SPC AC 260028

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong 500mb speed max is translating across WV early this evening.
As a result, primary corridor of warm advection is now focusing
across the Middle Atlantic/southern New England where negligible
buoyancy is noted. Deep convection has been confined to the trailing
cold front across portions of the Southeast, and lightning with this
activity has been decreasing over the last few hours. While 00z
sounding from JAX exhibits around 300 J/kg MLCAPE, low-level
convergence will gradually focus off the Atlantic coast later this
evening as the front surges across this region. Given the limited
instability, and the primary focus for ascent well north of this
region, severe probabilities appear low the rest of tonight.

..Darrow.. 01/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260518
SWODY1
SPC AC 260517

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Discussion...

Dominant polar air mass will build southeast across lower latitudes
which will force a cold front off the southern FL Peninsula later
this afternoon. Poor lapse rates and weak large-scale forcing do not
favor deep convection capable of generating lightning. Thunderstorm probabilities remain too low to warrant an outlook this period.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261246
SWODY1
SPC AC 261245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis centers an expansive 1040 mb high over OK.
Cold and stable airmass and offshore trajectories associated with
this high will preclude thunderstorm development across much of the
central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is along and ahead of
a decaying cold front as it moves through central and southern FL.
Regional radar imagery currently shows some deeper convection just
ahead of this front over central FL, where the dewpoints are in the
70s. However, even with this low-level moisture in place, more than
isolated deep convection appears unlikely due to warm mid-level
temperatures and associated poor lapse rates. A few deeper updrafts
capable of lightning could still occur briefly, particularly on the
southeast FL Coast where high temperatures will reach the low 80s,
but overall lightning coverage is still expected to be less than 10
percent.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261552
SWODY1
SPC AC 261550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion including South Florida...
Longwave trough will remain prevalent east of the Rockies, with some
late-day amplification of the upper ridge into the West in advance
of an approaching shortwave trough. High pressure and
cold/continental trajectories will extensively prevail east of the
Rockies, with an exception being ahead of a cold front crossing the
Florida Peninsula. While near-frontal convergence will remain weak,
and mid-level lapse rates are poor, additional boundary layer
warming and deepening convection may be conducive for a few
lightning flashes, mainly near parts of the coastal southeast
Florida Peninsula through afternoon.

..Guyer/Barnes.. 01/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261939
SWODY1
SPC AC 261938

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected.

...Discussion...
Occasional lightning occurred earlier today near the Florida coast
with a weak line of storms that developed along the cold front. This
convective line has weakened/moved far enough offshore to bring an
end to any thunder potential across Florida. A dry,
continental-polar airmass, which has now become established across
much of the CONUS, will continue to limit any thunderstorm
potential.

..Bentley.. 01/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0950 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026/

...Discussion including South Florida...
Longwave trough will remain prevalent east of the Rockies, with some
late-day amplification of the upper ridge into the West in advance
of an approaching shortwave trough. High pressure and
cold/continental trajectories will extensively prevail east of the
Rockies, with an exception being ahead of a cold front crossing the
Florida Peninsula. While near-frontal convergence will remain weak,
and mid-level lapse rates are poor, additional boundary layer
warming and deepening convection may be conducive for a few
lightning flashes, mainly near parts of the coastal southeast
Florida Peninsula through afternoon.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270011
SWODY1
SPC AC 270009

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible tonight.

...01z Update...

Surface front has surged off the southern FL Peninsula and stable
conditions are noted across the CONUS.

..Darrow.. 01/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270515
SWODY1
SPC AC 270513

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely today.

Generally cold and stable conditions exist across most of the CONUS,
thus the risk for thunderstorms is very low.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/27/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 271244
SWODY1
SPC AC 271242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely today.

...Synopsis...
Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today
within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and
eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward
across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong
shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This
evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow.

Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and
cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore
trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection
today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific
Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be
too shallow to produce lightning.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 271602
SWODY1
SPC AC 271600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 271944
SWODY1
SPC AC 271942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 01/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 280032
SWODY1
SPC AC 280030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur through tonight across parts of
northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will quickly move across northern CA and parts of
the Pacific Northwest through tonight, with a weakening trend.
Despite this, increasing lift, cooling aloft and a midlevel moist
plume may support weak SBCAPE near the coast and elevated
instability inland. The weak instability and minimal wind speeds
below 700 mb should preclude any severe risk.

Elsewhere, cool and stable conditions will prevail with an expansive
upper trough east of the Rockies and high pressure.

..Jewell.. 01/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 280530
SWODY1
SPC AC 280528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for today.

...Synopsis...
A relatively stable pattern will exist across the CONUS today, with
high pressure affecting most areas. A deep upper low will remain
over Ontario, with broad cyclonic flow aloft encompassing most of
eastern Canada and the USA. With high pressure over land, offshore
flow will keep appreciable low-level moisture well offshore from
Cuba toward the Turks and Caicos.

Precipitation will be possible in association with a shortwave
trough moving across the Great Basin during the day and across the
central and northern Rockies. However, little to no instability is
forecast, and as such thunderstorms appear unlikely.

..Jewell.. 01/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 281237
SWODY1
SPC AC 281236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for today.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
within in the cyclonic flow covering the central and eastern CONUS.
The southernmost shortwave is currently progressing southeastward
into the Lower MS Valley, with this southeastward motion expected to
persist throughout the day. This evolution takes the wave across the north-central and eastern Gulf this afternoon/evening, and across FL
by early tomorrow morning. The northern shortwave is moving
southeastward over the Upper Great Lakes, and continued
southeastward progress will take this wave through the middle/upper
OH Valley and off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Dry and
stable conditions associated with an arctic airmass will be in place
ahead of these shortwaves, limiting low-level moisture and
precluding thunderstorm development.

Another shortwave trough is currently moving eastward across the
interior Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. This eastward/southeastward progression should continue, taking the wave
through the northern/central Rockies and into the central Plains
while also dampening the shortwave ridging proceeding it.
Precipitation will be possible in association with this shortwave
during the day and across the central and northern Rockies. However,
little to no instability is forecast, and thunderstorms appear
unlikely.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 281601
SWODY1
SPC AC 281600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Longwave upper troughing with multiple embedded mid-level
perturbations over the eastern CONUS and Canada will maintain
surface high pressure and offshore/continental low-level
trajectories across the Southeast through tonight. A separate
shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward over the Great
Basin and northern/central Rockies/Plains today. Negligible
instability across all these regions will preclude thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 01/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 281921
SWODY1
SPC AC 281920

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 01/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Longwave upper troughing with multiple embedded mid-level
perturbations over the eastern CONUS and Canada will maintain
surface high pressure and offshore/continental low-level
trajectories across the Southeast through tonight. A separate
shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward over the Great
Basin and northern/central Rockies/Plains today. Negligible
instability across all these regions will preclude thunderstorms.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 290048
SWODY1
SPC AC 290047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Discussion...
The prevalence of cold/continental trajectories, especially east of
the Rockies, will preclude thunderstorm development through tonight.

..Guyer.. 01/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 290543
SWODY1
SPC AC 290541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A convectively inactive scenario will persist across the CONUS with
virtually nil thunderstorm potential. Longwave trough will persist
east of the Rockies with associated cold/continental trajectories
prevalent, with upper ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain
West. Multiple shortwave troughs will influence the Pacific
Northwest, but the potential for lighting-producing convection is
likely to remain low even in near-coastal areas given the forecast thermodynamic profiles.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 291239
SWODY1
SPC AC 291238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is currently in place across much of the
central and eastern CONUS, anchored by an expansive upper low
centered over central Ontario. Early-morning satellite imagery shows
a pair of shortwave troughs within the western periphery of this
cyclonic flow, with the lead wave entering the TX Panhandle and OK
and the second wave moving through western WY. Both of these
shortwaves are forecast to move southeastward throughout the day,
while another notably strong shortwave drops southward into the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest early tomorrow. Evolution of these
waves will reinforcing the cold, dry, and stable airmass already in
place, and no thunderstorms are expected.

Upper ridging is expected to build across much of the western CONUS/Intermountain West today. As it does, a pair of shortwave
troughs are forecast to move through British Columbia and the
Pacific Northwest. Showers with embedded convective elements will
accompany each of these waves, but any convection should be too
shallow for lightning production.

..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 291602
SWODY1
SPC AC 291600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while
broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern
CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude
thunderstorms through tonight.

..Gleason.. 01/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 291932
SWODY1
SPC AC 291930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 01/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while
broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern
CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude
thunderstorms through tonight.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 300045
SWODY1
SPC AC 300043

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Discussion...
The general prevalence of cold/stable conditions will preclude
thunderstorm development across the CONUS through tonight.

..Guyer.. 01/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 300543
SWODY1
SPC AC 300541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A longwave trough will remain steadfast east of the Rockies, with
upper ridging prevalent over much of the West aside from a few
ridge-riding shortwave troughs over the Pacific Northwest and
Canadian Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis is expected late tonight off
the coastal south Atlantic, with the expectation that convection
will also increase offshore in vicinity of the Gulf Stream overnight
through early Saturday morning. However, it appears that lightning
flash potential will remain limited (less than 10 percent) for the
near-coastal areas of the Carolinas.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 01/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 301158
SWODY1
SPC AC 301156

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A large-scale trough will consolidate/amplify over the eastern half
of the CONUS through the period. In response, a surface cyclone will
evolve northeastward along the Gulf Stream -- remaining offshore of
the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms accompanying the surface cyclone
should also remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 01/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 301601
SWODY1
SPC AC 301600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the central/eastern
CONUS through tonight. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen and develop northeastward along/near the Gulf Stream, while
remaining offshore of the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms associated
with the warm sector of the surface cyclone should also remain
offshore. A separate mid-level shortwave trough will overspread
parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia today. While
showers/bands of precipitation are forecast to move inland,
negligible instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/30/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 301935
SWODY1
SPC AC 301934

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 01/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the central/eastern
CONUS through tonight. In response, a surface low will gradually
deepen and develop northeastward along/near the Gulf Stream, while
remaining offshore of the Carolinas. Any thunderstorms associated
with the warm sector of the surface cyclone should also remain
offshore. A separate mid-level shortwave trough will overspread
parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia today. While
showers/bands of precipitation are forecast to move inland,
negligible instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 310040
SWODY1
SPC AC 310039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions remain prevalent across the CONUS based on
latest surface observations and recent 00z RAOBs, and will preclude thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected overnight well east of the Carolina coast as a cyclone
continues to intensify, but these are not expected to impact land.

..Moore.. 01/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 310526
SWODY1
SPC AC 310525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today through
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Long-wave troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS as an
embedded shortwave trough steadily intensifies off the East Coast.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely off the GA/Carolina
coast as an attendant surface cyclone intensifies; however, the warm
sector of the low will remain well offshore, precluding the
potential for thunderstorms over land. Elsewhere, seasonally cool
conditions across the central CONUS and upper ridging over the West
will further nullify thunderstorm development.

..Moore/Wendt.. 01/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 311220
SWODY1
SPC AC 311219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today through
tonight.

Another quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today,
with no thunderstorms anticipated. A deepening surface cyclone off
the Carolina/Georgia coast will aid in the development of
thunderstorms offshore, but that activity is not expected to affect
inland areas.

..Hart.. 01/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 311602
SWODY1
SPC AC 311600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this
morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western
Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over
the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the
period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain
offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level
temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late
tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast
soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to
lightning-producing convection.

..Gleason/Supinie.. 01/31/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 311950
SWODY1
SPC AC 311948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged.

..Squitieri.. 01/31/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this
morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western
Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over
the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the
period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain
offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level
temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late
tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast
soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to
lightning-producing convection.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 010048
SWODY1
SPC AC 010047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing off the Southeast
Coast as a cyclone intensifies with the approach of an upper wave;
however, this activity will remain well off the coast and will not
impact land. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible off
the WA coast through early morning, but lightning potential over
land appears limited based on regional 00z RAOBs and forecast
soundings. Elsewhere cold/stable conditions will preclude
thunderstorm potential.

..Moore.. 02/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 010539
SWODY1
SPC AC 010538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
The ongoing synoptic regime remains unfavorable for thunderstorm
development across the country. Offshore flow into the Gulf and off
the Southeast coast is evident in surface observations and IR
imagery, and should become more prevalent through the day as a
surface cyclone intensifies and accelerates northeast towards the
Canadian Maritimes. Surface high pressure is beginning to build
across the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley in the wake of the
recent cold frontal intrusion, which will maintain dry and cool
conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Across the West,
upper ridging and very dry conditions below 500 mb will continue to
limit thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two appears
possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest as a weak upper
disturbance moves onshore, but lightning coverage will likely remain
below 10% based on latest guidance and forecast soundings.

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 011240
SWODY1
SPC AC 011238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.

An upper trough will rotate inland across the WA/OR Cascades this
afternoon, accompanied by cold temperatures aloft and strong onshore
flow. Scattered showers are expected across western WA, where very
weak CAPE will develop. While the risk of thunderstorms is low, an
isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out.

Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
across the CONUS today.

..Hart/Broyles.. 02/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 011602
SWODY1
SPC AC 011600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold/stable conditions behind a front will limit thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS today. A mid-level
shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies through tonight. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with this feature may support very weak instability and
perhaps an occasional lightning flash. However, it still appears
that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain less than 10%.

..Gleason.. 02/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 011958
SWODY1
SPC AC 011957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 02/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold/stable conditions behind a front will limit thunderstorm
potential across the central/eastern CONUS today. A mid-level
shortwave trough will advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies through tonight. Cool temperatures aloft
associated with this feature may support very weak instability and
perhaps an occasional lightning flash. However, it still appears
that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain less than 10%.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 020043
SWODY1
SPC AC 020042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Cool, dry, and stable conditions are noted across the country this
evening per 00z RAOBs. With a synoptic regime in place that is
unfavorable for destabilization, thunderstorm potential appears
minimal. One exception to this is along/west of the Cascades in the
Pacific Northwest where occasional lightning flashes have been
observed in recent hours. Regional 00z soundings did sample weak
buoyancy, but this will quickly diminish in the coming hours with
the onset of nocturnal cooling. As such, any additional lightning
potential is expected to be short-lived and should wane rapidly
through the late evening.

..Moore.. 02/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 020545
SWODY1
SPC AC 020544

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today through
tonight.

...Synopsis...
Cool and stable conditions will persist across much of the country
for today and will limit thunderstorm potential. Modest moisture is
expected late tonight into eastern TX as a surface high gradually
shifts east and supports onshore trajectories out of the
northwestern Gulf. A cold front pushing south across the Plains
overnight will begin to impinge on this returning moisture across
the Texarkana region between 09-12 UTC Tuesday morning. While
shallow convective showers appear probable, consensus among forecast
guidance is that warm mid-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm
potential until more substantial cooling aloft occurs (which will
most likely occur after 12 UTC Tuesday).

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 021228
SWODY1
SPC AC 021226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today through
tonight.

Dry and stable conditions across the CONUS will preclude
thunderstorm activity today and tonight.

..Hart.. 02/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 021531
SWODY1
SPC AC 021530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will build over the West Coast states today, while
multiple mid-level shortwave troughs move east-southeastward across
the central/eastern CONUS. Even though modest low-level moisture
will return late tonight across parts of south/east TX towards the
ArkLaTex, generally stable and/or dry conditions will preclude
thunderstorms across the CONUS through the end of the period.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 02/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 021932
SWODY1
SPC AC 021930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Gleason.. 02/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0930 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will build over the West Coast states today, while
multiple mid-level shortwave troughs move east-southeastward across
the central/eastern CONUS. Even though modest low-level moisture
will return late tonight across parts of south/east TX towards the
ArkLaTex, generally stable and/or dry conditions will preclude
thunderstorms across the CONUS through the end of the period.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 030042
SWODY1
SPC AC 030040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Mid-evening satellite imagery depicts a weak mid-level impulse
moving across TX with modest moisture return ongoing into central
TX. A cold front is noted in surface observations advancing
south/southeastward across the Plains. This feature should impinge
on the returning moisture across the Texarkana region between 9-12
UTC, and will promote a gradual increase in shallow convective
showers. However, warm mid-level temperatures will prevent deep convection/thunderstorm development prior to 12 UTC. Elsewhere, cool
and dry conditions will preclude thunderstorms.

..Moore.. 02/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 030544
SWODY1
SPC AC 030542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
05 UTC surface observations depict modest moisture return ongoing
along the TX Gulf Coast into eastern TX as a surface low gradually
intensifies across northwest TX. Further north, a cold front
continues to advance southward into the southern Plains. A
combination of isentropic ascent preceding the front and more
focused lift along the front will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development by early afternoon from eastern TX into the
lower MS River Valley and possibly into parts of the TN Valley as
the front pushes southeast towards the Gulf.

Although dewpoints will likely increase to the upper 50s and low 60s
by late afternoon, warm mid-level temperatures observed in 00 UTC
soundings will yield modest buoyancy profiles characterized by
lifted indices between -1 to -3 C. Consequently, this will limit
updraft intensities and the overall potential for severe convection.
Latest CAM guidance, including the typically aggressive REFS,
support this idea and depict very weak signals for strong updrafts.

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 031237
SWODY1
SPC AC 031235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Northwest Gulf Coast into the Ark-La-Miss...
The low-level airmass over this region is continuing to slowly
modify after a previous arctic intrusion into the Gulf basin. Only
limited diurnal destabilization (i.e., mainly 50s surface dewpoints
yielding weak CAPE) is expected within a warm conveyor extending
across the central Gulf Coast states eastward into the southern
Appalachians. A mid-level trough will approach the region and aid
in pushing a cold front southeast. Forecast soundings suggest weak,
isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over east TX and
the Ark-La-Tex before shifting east-southeast across the lower MS
Valley later this evening into tonight.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 031616
SWODY1
SPC AC 031615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to amplify today, largely a consequence of
a deepening central/eastern CONUS upper trough. This large-scale
deepening will be fostered by the progression and evolution of
several shortwave troughs as they move through the western and
southern periphery of the parent upper troughing. The first of these
waves is currently moving southeastward through the Lower MO Valley,
with continued east-southeastward/eastward motion expected to take
this wave across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Appalachians
today.

A modest warm sector precedes this lead wave, with some low-level
moisture return currently noted across the TX Coastal Plains into
central and east TX. Some moisture return today will continue as the
shortwave progresses eastward and an associated cold front pushes
southeastward across TX and the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. However,
much of the central Gulf basin remains fairly dry due to previous
frontal intrusions, likely limiting the overall moisture return from
the Lower MS Valley eastward across the remainder of the Southeast.
This will confine the better low-level moisture return to the TX
Gulf Coast and southwest LA. Warm-air advection across this modestly
moist portion of the warm sector could contribute to some buoyancy.
However, tempered heating and poor lapse rates will mitigate the
overall magnitude of any buoyancy that does develop. Even so,
occasional updrafts should still be deep enough for isolated
lightning, particularly from east TX into central LA where the
highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Modest vertical shear
will be in place, but the overall severe risk will be limited by
weak buoyancy.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/03/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 031943
SWODY1
SPC AC 031941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...20z Update...
Minor adjustments were made to bring the thunder line further north
into Middle Tennessee to account for trends over the last couple of
hours. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 02/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to amplify today, largely a consequence of
a deepening central/eastern CONUS upper trough. This large-scale
deepening will be fostered by the progression and evolution of
several shortwave troughs as they move through the western and
southern periphery of the parent upper troughing. The first of these
waves is currently moving southeastward through the Lower MO Valley,
with continued east-southeastward/eastward motion expected to take
this wave across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Appalachians
today.

A modest warm sector precedes this lead wave, with some low-level
moisture return currently noted across the TX Coastal Plains into
central and east TX. Some moisture return today will continue as the
shortwave progresses eastward and an associated cold front pushes
southeastward across TX and the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. However,
much of the central Gulf basin remains fairly dry due to previous
frontal intrusions, likely limiting the overall moisture return from
the Lower MS Valley eastward across the remainder of the Southeast.
This will confine the better low-level moisture return to the TX
Gulf Coast and southwest LA. Warm-air advection across this modestly
moist portion of the warm sector could contribute to some buoyancy.
However, tempered heating and poor lapse rates will mitigate the
overall magnitude of any buoyancy that does develop. Even so,
occasional updrafts should still be deep enough for isolated
lightning, particularly from east TX into central LA where the
highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Modest vertical shear
will be in place, but the overall severe risk will be limited by
weak buoyancy.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 040046
SWODY1
SPC AC 040045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front is evident in 00 UTC surface observations
extending from Middle TN southwestward to the TX Coastal Plain with thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southeast TX into western
LA. This activity is expected to spread southeastward into the
northwestern Gulf through 12 UTC in tandem with the surface front. A
recent 00 UTC sounding from CRP sampled around 500 J/kg SBCAPE, but
the onset of nocturnal cooling should begin to modulate buoyancy
heading into the late evening/overnight hours. While forcing along
the front will continue to support convection, thunderstorm
intensity will likely continue to wane and limit the potential for
organized convection given the deteriorating thermodynamic
conditions.

..Moore.. 02/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 040548
SWODY1
SPC AC 040546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening surface observations show a cold front advancing south
into the northwestern Gulf/lower MS River Valley. This feature is
expected to continue southeastward over the next 24 hours amid
building high pressure across the central CONUS. Despite seasonal
moisture in place along the Gulf Coast, warm mid-level
temperatures/poor lapse rates will largely limit much appreciable
buoyancy. However, forecast soundings suggest sufficient MUCAPE for
isolated thunderstorms may develop within the pre-frontal air mass
by late morning/early afternoon across the northern Gulf into parts
of southern AL and the FL Panhandle. Given the poor thermodynamic
environment, severe/organized convection is not expected, and any
appreciable lightning threat to land should diminish after 00 UTC.

..Moore/Wendt.. 02/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 041235
SWODY1
SPC AC 041234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Morning surface analysis places a cold front pushing southeast
across the northeast Gulf Coast southwestward through the Gulf of
America. As an upper trough over the lower MO Valley/southern Great
Plains pivots southeast into the central Gulf Coast, it will drive
the front into central portions of the FL Peninsula late tonight.
Scant buoyancy mainly over the FL Panhandle vicinity this morning
may yield a few weak thunderstorms before this activity diminishes
as it moves east into a more stable airmass. Elsewhere, quiescent
conditions for thunderstorms will prevail.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 041630
SWODY1
SPC AC 041629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from
the Lower MO Valley through OK and the TX Panhandle. This shortwave
is forecast to continue progressing southeastward, moving from the
western to southern periphery of the mean upper troughing that
covers much of the eastern CONUS. This progression will deepen the
eastern CONUS troughing, while a Rex Block persists across the
western CONUS. This evolution will yield an strongly amplified upper
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow morning.

Surface analysis places a low over the southern Appalachians in
northern GA, with a cold front extending southwestward from this
through the central Gulf Coast. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
precede this front from the FL Panhandle through central and eastern
SC, although most of the lightning is currently offshore. As the
aforementioned shortwave trough continues southeastward, this front
is forecast to surge southeastward as well. Inland buoyancy ahead of
the front will be limited by tempered heating and poor lapse rates,
which is expected to keep any thunderstorm potential offshore for
the remainder of the period.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/04/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 041951
SWODY1
SPC AC 041949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.

..Dean.. 02/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026/

...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from
the Lower MO Valley through OK and the TX Panhandle. This shortwave
is forecast to continue progressing southeastward, moving from the
western to southern periphery of the mean upper troughing that
covers much of the eastern CONUS. This progression will deepen the
eastern CONUS troughing, while a Rex Block persists across the
western CONUS. This evolution will yield an strongly amplified upper
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow morning.

Surface analysis places a low over the southern Appalachians in
northern GA, with a cold front extending southwestward from this
through the central Gulf Coast. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
precede this front from the FL Panhandle through central and eastern
SC, although most of the lightning is currently offshore. As the
aforementioned shortwave trough continues southeastward, this front
is forecast to surge southeastward as well. Inland buoyancy ahead of
the front will be limited by tempered heating and poor lapse rates,
which is expected to keep any thunderstorm potential offshore for
the remainder of the period.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 050033
SWODY1
SPC AC 050032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent tonight.

...01Z Update...
Larger-scale mid-level troughing may take on a bit less of a
positive tilt while approaching the southern Atlantic Seaboard later
tonight, as the most vigorous embedded short wave perturbation
begins to pivot eastward after digging into the northwestern Gulf
coast vicinity. However, colder mid-level temperatures are forecast
to continue to lag to the northwest and west of the associated
surface cold front, which may overspread much of northern Florida
and the west central peninsula by 12Z Thursday. Forecast soundings
suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric moistening and forcing for
large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front may contribute to a
layer of weak destabilization supportive of heavier showers into and
across the Greater Tampa vicinity, and perhaps much of the I-4
corridor, late tonight. However, given relatively warm equilibrium
(and likely cloud top) temperatures, the potential for lightning
appears low.

..Kerr.. 02/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050506
SWODY1
SPC AC 050504

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S. today through tonight.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a significant, progressive short wave trough, models
indicate that an initially vigorous perturbation across the southern mid-latitude Pacific will be forced northeastward/eastward toward
the North American Pacific coast today through tonight. As it
approaches a prominent mid/upper high which has evolved inland of
the U.S coast, it is forecast to split, with one of the emerging
perturbations accelerating toward the British Columbia coast while
the other digs toward the southern California coast. Downstream of
the latter impulse, broader weak troughing initially offshore of
southern California and Baja is forecast to slowly accelerate north/northeastward inland of coastal areas.

While models indicate that the blocking ridge will probably undergo
notable weakening today through tonight, it appears that amplified
ridging will generally be maintained across the Canadian/U.S.
Rockies, with another significant short wave trough of Arctic
origins digging downstream, across the southwestern Hudson Bay
vicinity. It appears that this will be accompanied by a deepening
surface cyclone, with a trailing cold front advancing across the
international border into portions of the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region by late tonight.

This is likely to occur coincident with strong downstream surface
cyclogenesis, offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard through the
southern mid-latitude western Atlantic, trailed by a cold front
advancing south of the Florida peninsula through the Bahamas and
western Caribbean.

...Florida...
Inland of the Gulf coast, across the remainder of the central and
southern peninsula, with the mid-level cold core continuing to trail
to the northwest of the surface cold front, and mid/upper support
for ascent perhaps weakening ahead of the front, forecast soundings
indicate minimal potential for pre-frontal thunderstorm development
today.

...Southwest...
Model forecast soundings, particularly the Rapid Refresh, suggest
that steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and moisture
return from the subtropical eastern Pacific, may lead to the
development of weak conditional instability across parts of southern
California through the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley by late
tonight. However, this may mostly occur in the wake of an initial
short wave impulse overspreading the region, with little potential
for thunderstorm activity through 12Z Friday.

..Kerr.. 02/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051217
SWODY1
SPC AC 051215

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough
progressing east across the Southeast while a ridge resides over the
Interior West. A cold front will continue to push southeast across
the FL Peninsula today with cool/stable conditions accompanying high
pressure across the Southeast. Tranquil conditions will prevail
across the Lower 48 states.

..Smith/Jewell.. 02/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051622
SWODY1
SPC AC 051621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a considerably amplified upper
pattern featuring an eastern CONUS upper trough and a western CONUS
Rex Block anchored by expansive ridging from Mexico into British
Columbia. Within the eastern CONUS troughing, a shortwave trough
currently extends from the central Appalachians southwestward into
the north-central Gulf. Surface low associated with this shortwave
is currently off the South Carolina coast, with an attendant cold
front extending back southwestward across south Florida. This
surface low is forecast to eject northeastward into more of the
western Atlantic as its parent shortwave progresses eastward and the
cold front pushes through the remainder of south Florida. Modest
low-level moisture precedes this front across south Florida, but
tempered heating and warm temperatures aloft will mitigate any
buoyancy and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 02/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051920
SWODY1
SPC AC 051918

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
across the CONUS today.

..Hart.. 02/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a considerably amplified upper
pattern featuring an eastern CONUS upper trough and a western CONUS
Rex Block anchored by expansive ridging from Mexico into British
Columbia. Within the eastern CONUS troughing, a shortwave trough
currently extends from the central Appalachians southwestward into
the north-central Gulf. Surface low associated with this shortwave
is currently off the South Carolina coast, with an attendant cold
front extending back southwestward across south Florida. This
surface low is forecast to eject northeastward into more of the
western Atlantic as its parent shortwave progresses eastward and the
cold front pushes through the remainder of south Florida. Modest
low-level moisture precedes this front across south Florida, but
tempered heating and warm temperatures aloft will mitigate any
buoyancy and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the CONUS.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060045
SWODY1
SPC AC 060043

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S tonight.

...01Z Update...

...Southwest...
A short wave trough approaching a blocking mid-level ridge centered
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast continues to split, with one
emerging perturbation now digging toward southern California and
Baja, where weak larger-scale preceding troughing is already slowly accelerating north/northeastward, inland across coastal areas. As
this continues tonight, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture of
sub-tropical eastern Pacific origin is forecast to continue to
advect northward across portions of southern California through the
Mojave Desert and lower Colorado Valley. Coincident with steepening
lapse rates aided by mid-level cooling, Rapid Refresh and NAM
forecast soundings continue to indicate layers of weak conditional
instability developing across the region overnight. The evolution
of profiles conducive to convection capable of producing lightning
remains a bit unclear, but still seems generally low through at
least 12Z Friday..

..Kerr.. 02/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060506
SWODY1
SPC AC 060505

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities will remain generally near or below 10
percent across the U.S. today through tonight.

...Discussion...
While a blocking high centered inland of the U.S. Pacific coast
becomes increasingly suppressed, it appears that large-scale ridging
will be maintained across the Pacific coast through the Canadian
Prairies and U.S. Great Plains. Some expansion east of the Canadian
Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains is possible, but a vigorous
short wave trough of Arctic origins likely will reinforce amplified larger-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Atlantic
Seaboard, as it digs south-southeast of the Great Lakes through Mid
Atlantic region today through tonight. Beneath a confluent
mid-level regime in the wake of this feature, cold surface ridging
is forecast to build across the Mississippi Valley through
Appalachians vicinity, with the leading edge of the reinforcing cold
intrusion advancing as far south as the Florida peninsula and
northeastern Gulf Basin through central Texas by 12Z Saturday.

Near and inland of the southern California through Baja coast, broad
weak mid-level troughing is forecast to linger and become reinforced
by a digging short wave perturbation emerging from the upstream
southern mid-latitude Pacific. Models indicate that this may
include the evolution of a notable mid-level low, which probably
will remain offshore of the southern California and northern Baja
coast through this period.

...Southwest...
Models suggest that modest moisture return off the subtropical
eastern Pacific, coincident with steepening lapse rates aided by
mid-level cooling, will contribute to weak destabilization across
parts of California into the Great Basin today through tonight.
With the evolving low and associated coldest mid-level temperatures
forecast to remain offshore, forcing to support convective
development inland remains unclear. Spread among the model output
adds to the uncertainty.

Orographic forcing might contribute to potential for thunderstorm
development with sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, and
there appears a consensus among the various ensemble calibrated
thunderstorm guidance for minimum threshold thunderstorm
probabilities across at least western portions of the Transverse
Ranges of southern California. Eastward into the San Gabriel
Mountains, and northward into portions of the southern Sierra
Nevada, thunderstorm probabilities appear a bit less at this time.

..Kerr.. 02/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061225
SWODY1
SPC AC 061224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid- to upper-level low located to the west of Point Conception
along the southern CA coast will move southeastward during the
period to the west of northern Baja California. A mid-level ridge
will influence conditions farther east across the Rockies while a
deep trough resides along the Atlantic coast. Cool/stable
conditions will prevail from the MS Valley eastward to the Atlantic
coast while mostly dry and tranquil weather will occur across the
Lower 48. A few showers and perhaps a couple of deeper convective
towers may result in a few lightning flashes over the higher terrain
east of Point Conception in southern CA.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061617
SWODY1
SPC AC 061616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Upper low currently developing off the coast of southern CA is
expected to continue deepening as it progresses southward today,
ending the period as a well-developed closed low off the coast of
the northern Baja Peninsula by early tomorrow. Modestly moist low-
to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of
this low, combining with cooling mid-level temperatures to support
scant buoyancy. Consequently, a few thunderstorms are possible later
this afternoon and evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern
CA.

Expansive upper ridging is in place across much of the western and
central CONUS east of this upper low and associated troughing along
the West Coast. Stable conditions attendant to this ridging will
prevail across the remainder of the western and central CONUS. Deep
upper troughing exists east of this ridging from Ontario into the
western Atlantic Ocean, with several shortwave troughs embedded
within the cyclonic flow that extends from the Upper Midwest and off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, prevailing cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061959
SWODY1
SPC AC 061958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Southern CA...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. An isolated
thunderstorm or two remains possible this afternoon and early
evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern CA.

..Hart.. 02/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper low currently developing off the coast of southern CA is
expected to continue deepening as it progresses southward today,
ending the period as a well-developed closed low off the coast of
the northern Baja Peninsula by early tomorrow. Modestly moist low-
to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of
this low, combining with cooling mid-level temperatures to support
scant buoyancy. Consequently, a few thunderstorms are possible later
this afternoon and evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern
CA.

Expansive upper ridging is in place across much of the western and
central CONUS east of this upper low and associated troughing along
the West Coast. Stable conditions attendant to this ridging will
prevail across the remainder of the western and central CONUS. Deep
upper troughing exists east of this ridging from Ontario into the
western Atlantic Ocean, with several shortwave troughs embedded
within the cyclonic flow that extends from the Upper Midwest and off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, prevailing cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070032
SWODY1
SPC AC 070030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible tonight.

...Discussion..
Pulse thunderstorms earlier this afternoon over the western
Transverse Ranges of southern CA appear to have recently diminished.
Lingering, isolated low-topped convection should decay rapidly after
sunset. Elsewhere across the CONUS, conditions will be too
dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through 12Z Saturday.

..Grams.. 02/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070531
SWODY1
SPC AC 070530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...AZ/NM...
A low-latitude shortwave trough should drift southeastward, west of
Baja CA. A plume of eastern Pacific mid-level moisture within a weak
warm conveyor should spread into parts of far southeast AZ later
this morning, shifting east across southern NM through the
afternoon. This might yield minimal elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below
100 J/kg) within predominately marginal temperatures for charge
separation. As such, thunder probabilities for this regime appear to
be below 10 percent.

In its wake, isolated thunderstorms should be focused over southeast
AZ this afternoon as meager surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE below 500
J/kg) develops. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous in the wake of
the leading warm advection plume, but sufficient orographic lift
should exist to support a few cells. Guidance does differ on the
degree of storm coverage though, with the 00Z RRFS/ECMWF on the more
aggressive spectrum.

..Grams.. 02/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071249
SWODY1
SPC AC 071247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Desert Southwest...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and
an associated trough to the west of Baja Calfornia. This
disturbance will meander slowly southeast reaching the Baja
California/Gulf of California vicinity by the end of the period.
Relatively cold mid-level temperatures (near -18 deg C at 500 mb)
and sufficient moisture will yield weak buoyancy later today across
southern AZ. Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are forecast
mainly for southeast AZ where weak ascent may yield a couple of
lightning flashes with deeper convection. Elsewhere across the
contiguous United States, quiescent conditions will prevail
precluding thunderstorms.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071620
SWODY1
SPC AC 071619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered
just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this
low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing
across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is
that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase
throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also
increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing
low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ
and southwest NM.

Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS
from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions.
Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest
cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD
tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms
as well.

..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 072000
SWODY1
SPC AC 071958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...Southeast AZ...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A few
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of
southeast AZ. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will prevail.

..Hart.. 02/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered
just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this
low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing
across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is
that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase
throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also
increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing
low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ
and southwest NM.

Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS
from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions.
Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest
cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD
tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms
as well.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080037
SWODY1
SPC AC 080036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms over southeast Arizona will diminish this
evening with negligible thunder potential tonight.

...Discussion...
Quiescent thunder potential is anticipated across the CONUS tonight.
An exception is across southeast AZ where quasi-stationary
thunderstorms have occurred in the late afternoon over the higher
terrain in parts of Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. This activity
should rapidly dissipate over the next hour as nocturnal
boundary-layer cooling accelerates amid limited large-scale ascent.

..Grams.. 02/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080535
SWODY1
SPC AC 080533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Very isolated thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the
coastal Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Discussion...
A low-latitude, mid-level low will drift southeastward, west of
central to southern Baja CA. Thunderstorm potential downstream of
this wave is expected to remain south of the AZ border area today.

In the Pacific Northwest, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave
impulses should progress eastward through early morning Monday.
Instability will be quite limited until this evening/tonight as a
plume of steep mid-level lapse rates spreads southeastward,
eventually across most of the OR coast. CAM consensus indicates
potential for a band of low-topped convection spreading towards
parts of the OR/WA coast tonight. Buoyancy should be scant at most,
but a few lightning flashes remain plausible.

..Grams.. 02/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081246
SWODY1
SPC AC 081245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Discussion...
A progressive flow regime will reside across the contiguous United
States today to the north of a low-latitude, mid-level low over
northwestern Mexico. In the Pacific Northwest, a series of
lower-amplitude shortwave impulses should progress eastward through
early morning Monday. A plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates
is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest coast tonight. As a
result, low-topped convection moving ashore may intermittently be
capable of lightning flashes on an isolated basis near the coast.
Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for thunderstorms will prevail
across the remainder of the CONUS.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081621
SWODY1
SPC AC 081619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.

Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.

..Mosier/Halbert.. 02/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081942
SWODY1
SPC AC 081940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 02/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.

Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090031
SWODY1
SPC AC 090029

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.

...Discussion...
Minimal change from the previous outlook with potential for isolated thunderstorms during the late evening to early overnight. In the
wake of a low-amplitude shortwave trough shifting east across the
Northwest, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will expand
southeastward across most of coastal OR. Guidance is consistent in
depicting a surface trough encroaching on the coast by 06-08Z.
Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this trough,
especially towards the WA coast. Buoyancy should remain scant at
most, but may be adequate for a few embedded thunderstorms before
convection weakens inland.

..Grams.. 02/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090537
SWODY1
SPC AC 090536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms potential appears negligible through tonight.

...Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm potential is anticipated today
into tonight. One exception may be across parts of the Northwest,
amid steep mid-level lapse rates in the wake of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies to the adjacent High
Plains. Most guidance indicates isolated to widely scattered
low-topped convection, mainly in the form of snow showers, at peak
afternoon heating over the higher terrain of central ID to the
Yellowstone vicinity. Buoyancy will be minimal, and in combination
with weakly forced ascent/cool surface temperatures, thunderstorm
probabilities still appear to be less than 10 percent.

..Grams.. 02/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091244
SWODY1
SPC AC 091242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.

...Discussion...
Tranquil conditions will prevail across much of the contiguous U.S.
through tonight in large part due to surface high pressure over the
East and a mostly dry airmass over the Lower 48. Model guidance is
consistent in showing the risk of thunderstorms to be very low to
nil across the continental United States.

..Smith/Moore.. 02/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091552
SWODY1
SPC AC 091551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.

...MT/ID/WY...
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm
activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over
parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in
isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.

..Hart/Thornton.. 02/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091945
SWODY1
SPC AC 091944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible through tonight.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast.

..Wendt.. 02/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/

...MT/ID/WY...
A relatively dry and stable environment will preclude thunderstorm
activity across the CONUS today. The one area of some risk is over
parts of MT/ID/WY ahead of a series of shortwave troughs moving
across the region. Lift and cold temperatures aloft could result in
isolated lightning, but coverage is expected to remain below 10%.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100036
SWODY1
SPC AC 100035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential remains negligible tonight.


..Darrow.. 02/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100535
SWODY1
SPC AC 100533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...

Late-evening model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced
short-wave trough will approach the CA coast during the latter half
of the period as a 500mb speed max translates inland across southern
CA. Cooling profiles north of this jet favor steepening lapse rates
and weak destabilization such that isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest deeper convective
updrafts may generate lightning, primarily after 11/00z as weak
destabilization is maximized immediately ahead of the short
wave/cold front.

Downstream, water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
over the southern Baja Peninsula. This feature is beginning to eject
northeast and should advance into the Big Bend/northeast Mexico by
late afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen across far west TX ahead of
this feature, and high-level diffluent flow aloft will prove
favorable for weak convection across this region. Isolated lightning
is expected with some of this activity.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101258
SWODY1
SPC AC 101256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
12 UTC surface observations depict a southward advancing cold front
draped from the upper Great Lakes region into the southern Plains.
Aloft, an upper wave is forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes
region in response to the southward push of an arctic air mass
behind the front, while a low-amplitude upper disturbance over
northern Mexico migrates eastward along the Gulf coast. Along the
West Coast, cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper
trough will overspread central CA through tonight.

...Big Bend region of TX and portions of the OH Valley...
The combination of increasing ascent along the front and ahead of
the upper waves should promote increasing showers from the OH Valley southwestward into the Big Bend region of TX. While buoyancy
profiles will remain fairly modest along and ahead of the frontal
zone due to warm mid-level temperatures (as noted in 12 UTC RAOBs), temperatures aloft should be sufficiently cold for isolated
thunderstorms. A few recent CAM solutions hint at the potential for
loosely organized convection across portions of eastern KY into WV
where deep-layer shear will be fairly strong (around 40 knots) in
proximity to an intensifying upper jet. However, meager buoyancy
will likely modulate updraft intensities.

...California...
Persistent lightning has been noted in GOES GLM data off the CA
coast under the approaching upper-level trough. The 12 UTC OAK RAOB
also sampled cool mid-level temperatures near -20 C just below 500
mb. With further cooling/moistening aloft expected with the eastward translation of the upper trough, isolated thunderstorms appear
likely after 00 UTC.

..Moore.. 02/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101554
SWODY1
SPC AC 101552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...OH Valley...
An upper trough is moving across the Great Lakes region today, with
a 100kt mid-level jet nosing into NY. The associated surface cold
front will sag southward into parts of WV/KY/TN this afternoon and
evening. Southwesterly low-level wind ahead of the front will
continue to slowly moisten the air mass, leading to a corridor of
marginal CAPE. This will lead of a line of showers and occasional thunderstorms from central WV into west TN and eastern AR...mainly
after 00z. While an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out,
the threat of severe storms appears low.

...CA...
A strong and progressive upper trough will move into central CA this
afternoon and evening, providing widespread lift and mid-level
moisture across that region. Most model solutions suggest a line of
low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms along the front as it
moves inland after 21z. Gusty winds will be possible with the line,
but organized severe weather is not anticipated.

..Hart/Marsh.. 02/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 102001
SWODY1
SPC AC 101959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...20Z Update...

...OH Valley into the Mid-South...
Recent surface analysis places a low just east of Lake Erie, with an
associated cold front extending southwestward from this low through
northwest OH, central IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. This cold
front will continue to push southeastward through the evening and
overnight. Mid 50s dewpoints now reach into central KY, which is
likely near the northern extent of these higher dewpoints. Even so,
this could be just enough low-level moisture to support modest
buoyancy just ahead of the front from central KY into central WV,
where a few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. A few thunderstorms are also possible tonight along and
ahead of the front in the Mid-South vicinity. Here, overlap between
modest low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and
cooling mid-level temperatures will support limited buoyancy.

As mentioned in the previous outlook, an isolated strong wind gust
or two is possible in both of these areas, but the overall threat of
severe storms remains low.

...TX Trans-Pecos...
A few embedded thunderstorms are possible across the TX Trans-Pecos
and Edwards Plateau amid continued forcing for ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures ahead of the shortwave trough moving out of
northern Mexico. Severe hazards are not expected.

...CA...
Low-topped showers and isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated
this evening through tonight, mostly after 00Z, as a compact but
strong shortwave trough moves into central CA. Gusty winds are
possible within the primary frontal band, but organized severe
weather is not expected.

..Mosier.. 02/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0952 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/

...OH Valley...
An upper trough is moving across the Great Lakes region today, with
a 100kt mid-level jet nosing into NY. The associated surface cold
front will sag southward into parts of WV/KY/TN this afternoon and
evening. Southwesterly low-level wind ahead of the front will
continue to slowly moisten the air mass, leading to a corridor of
marginal CAPE. This will lead of a line of showers and occasional thunderstorms from central WV into west TN and eastern AR...mainly
after 00z. While an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out,
the threat of severe storms appears low.

...CA...
A strong and progressive upper trough will move into central CA this
afternoon and evening, providing widespread lift and mid-level
moisture across that region. Most model solutions suggest a line of
low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms along the front as it
moves inland after 21z. Gusty winds will be possible with the line,
but organized severe weather is not anticipated.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110033
SWODY1
SPC AC 110032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Strong upper trough is approaching the CA coast early this evening.
High-level diffluent flow is overspreading much of this region and
weak convection is gradually deepening, per isolated lightning flash
over the Sierra Nevada. As midlevels cool, steepening lapse rates
should aid further destabilization along with the risk for isolated thunderstorms.

Isolated thunderstorms have spread a bit farther downstream into
south central TX in association with the upper trough ejecting
across northeast Mexico. This activity should wane over the next few
hours.

Across the OH/TN Valleys, isolated thunderstorms are expected
along/ahead of the cold front that will advance southeast across
this region. A few lightning flashes have recently been noted across
WV, immediately ahead of the front. 00z soundings across this region
do not exhibit appreciably buoyancy, but further destabilization is
possible and this should aid a bit more coverage later this evening.

..Darrow.. 02/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110530
SWODY1
SPC AC 110529

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...CA/Great Basin...

Weak midlevel height falls are forecast to spread across CA into the
Great Basin later this afternoon in response to an upper low that
will advance slowly inland. Latest model guidance suggests this
feature will contribute to destabilization across much of central CA
into NV/UT as sub -24C at 500mb exists beneath the upper low.
Associated surface low is forecast to struggle advancing inland so
weak south-southeasterly boundary-layer flow is expected across the
interior valleys. Forecast soundings exhibit weak vertical shear,
but modest turning with height. While buoyancy will remain weak, a
few low-topped storms could weakly rotate given the veering
profiles. Aside from lightning, the greatest risk would be small
hail, at best, with this diurnally enhanced convection.

...Southeast...

Westerly flow will gradually deepen across the Southeast later today
in advance of a surface front that will advance toward the SC/GA
coast by early evening. Some boundary-layer heating is expected
ahead of the wind shift such that weak buoyancy is forecast ahead of
the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest the most robust
convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge,
but this activity is expected to remain isolated.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/11/2026

$$

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