ACUS02 KWNS 291707
SWODY2
SPC AC 291705
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday
night appear less than 10 percent.
...Discussion...
There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the
general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower
latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent
near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California
Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the
primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies.
This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the
British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough
progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S.
Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep
cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific.
Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous
digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are
forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted
larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi
Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late
Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by
only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening
low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during
the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the
various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the
same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a
remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by
late Friday night.
...Pacific Northwest...
In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band,
models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread
coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings
indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization
supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of
producing lightning.
...South Atlantic Seaboard...
Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some
further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern
Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow
may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is
possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable
thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could
become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears
probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will
suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer
stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back
to north/northwesterly.
Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that
destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated
with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain
focused near the Gulf Stream.
..Kerr.. 01/29/2026
$$
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