684
AXNT20 KNHC 091009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A
cold front extends from 31N46W to the north coast of Hispaniola.
Gale-force W winds are ongoing behind the front, N of 28N,
westward to 68W. Seas in these gales are 20 to 28 ft, with very
rough seas in excess of 12 ft extending southward to 21N between
40W and 74W due to a broad area of very significant NW swell.
Generally fresh to strong NW to W winds are present where the very
rough seas are ongoing behind the front, with SW winds of similar
magnitude ahead of the front. The cold front will move slowly east
through through Tue, while weakening, then stall from around
31N38W to 18N56W. Gale-force winds should end early Tue morning,
but the very rough seas will persist, gradually decaying from W
to E, but remaining above 12 ft for portions of the waters through
Wed. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest
forecasts.

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building
southward toward the Greater Antilles early this week will tighten
the pressure gradient over the Caribbean, increasing tradewinds.
The result will be gale-force winds pulsing tonight and again Tue
night offshore Colombia, mainly within about 90 nm from the
coast. Seas will build to 9 to 11 ft in association with these
gales.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and extends southwestward to near 02N18W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 00N44W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 00N to
04N between 09W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection extends
from 00S to 04N between 34W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered over the east-central Gulf
near 26N88W, with the associated ridge extending across the basin.
Thus, winds are light to gentle and anticyclonic, with some
locally moderate E winds the E Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1 to 3
ft, except for the eastern Bay of Campeche, where 4 ft seas are ongoing.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through late week, bringing gentle to moderate mainly southerly
flow. Locally fresh winds are expected, mainly at night, just west
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and over the far western waters. Slight
to moderate seas will prevail.

In the wake of a cold front that will slide E of the
Leeward Islands today and tonight, high pressure will build
southward into the basin, leading to increasing trade winds. Fresh
NE winds will dominate much of the basin through mid-week, with
strong winds developing over the central Caribbean. Winds are
likely to pulse to gale-force tonight and again Tue night offshore
Colombia. Meanwhile, large NW to N swell will impact the Mona
Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters into Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in effect for waters offshore Colombia.

A surface trough extends from the Leeward Islands to the SW basin
near 14N75W. Another weak surface trough is along 81W, southward
from 17N. Otherwise, high pressure centered N of the area
dominates, creating a trade-wind regime for area waters. Fresh
NE winds are present over the basin between 65W and 83W, with
mainly moderate winds farther to the east and west. Strong winds
have developed offshore Colombia and Dominican Republic. Seas
where the fresh to strong winds exist are 5 to 7 ft, with 3 to 5
ft seas elsewhere. Some locally rough seas are likely present just
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, in the wake of a cold front that will slide E
of the Leeward Islands today and tonight, high pressure will build
southward into the basin, leading to increasing trade winds.
Fresh NE winds will dominate much of the basin through mid-week,
with strong winds developing over the central Caribbean. Winds are
likely to pulse to gale-force tonight and again Tue night
offshore Colombia. Meanwhile, large NW to N swell will impact the
Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and significant swell in the western and central Atlantic.

Hazardous marine conditions dominate much of the basin, as
depicted in the Special Features section, in association with a
cold front crossing the central basin. High pressure of 1025 mb
centered over Florida and the Canary Islands dominate most of the
remaining waters, providing moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas. Moderate to fresh trades are impacting a belt S of 20N
between Africa and the Windward Islands, and seas in this region
are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, very rough seas impacting waters E of
74W will only slowly subside from W to E, decaying below 12 ft
region-wide by Wed. Peak seas this morning along 31N to the SE of
Bermuda will be as high as 28 ft. High pressure will cross the
waters Tue through Thu, leading to mainly improving conditions,
but another frontal system passing N of the region will lead to
strong SW winds N of 29N during this time.

$$
Konarik

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