ACUS01 KWNS 111954
SWODY1
SPC AC 111953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region,
including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central
Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern Indiana.
This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds
(some 75+ mph), large hail, and several tornadoes, some of which may
be strong to intense.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains mostly on track with only minor
adjustments made. Across the Midwest, latest GOES imagery shows
gradual clearing across southern IA/northern MO/western IL behind a
decaying MCS. Surface observations across southern IA show some
degree of air mass recovery is ongoing; however, the quality of
destabilization with northeastward extent remains very uncertain
given more extensive cloud cover, additional precipitation, and the
rapid approach of the cold front from the west.

Nonetheless, regional 18z RAOBs and VWPs are sampling the approach
of a 60-70 knot mid-level jet, which heralds the onset of stronger
synoptic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow
should strengthen through the evening in response to increasing
ascent, which will likely help advect higher theta-e air
north/northeastward as well as begin to augment low-level SRH.
Recent MRMS composites show the onset of convective initiation along
the cold front, which should maintain sufficient residence time
within the returning theta-e plume for further strengthening over
the coming hours. Latest high-res ensemble guidance (including WoFS
and time-lagged HRRR/RRFS solutions) appear to be capturing these
trends well and continue to depict the corridor of highest severe
wind and tornado threat across the Moderate risk zone. As such,
little change was made to the ongoing probability and intensity
contours.

...Upper OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
Several loosely organized convective bands have emerged across
eastern OH into western PA/NY. Regional VWPs continue to sample
deep-layer bulk shear on the order of 15-20 knots, which casts doubt
on the eastward extent of the severe wind threat beyond 00-02 UTC
when nocturnal stabilization will begin to weaken convection. Recent
CAM guidance suggests the peak wind threat should remain across
western to central PA/NY, which casts considerable uncertainty on
severe wind coverage further east along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Consequently, the 30% wind probabilities have been shifted west to
better align with recent observed and modeled trends. (See MCDs
#1091 and #1092 for additional details.)

...Southern Plains...
Recent surface observations show the cold front rapidly pushing
southeast across TX, OK, and southeast KS. Building cumulus is also
noted along the front, which suggests convective initiation is
probable in the coming hours. These trends align with the previous
forecast, see MCD #1090 for additional short-term details.

..Moore.. 06/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026/

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
An active and impactful severe weather event is still expected
across parts of the Midwest Great Lakes later this afternoon and
evening. Ongoing bowing cluster across southeast IA/northwest
IL/southwest WI and vicinity may continue to pose at least some
severe wind and embedded QLCS tornado threat as it continues
east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest this afternoon. There
is still airmass recovery underway ahead of this activity,
especially into central/northern IL, northern IN, and parts of
southern Lower MI where strong heating is occurring. Enhanced
mid-level west-southwesterly winds associated with a potent
shortwave trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will
overspread the developing warm sector this afternoon, and support
organized severe potential, including the possibility of multiple
tornadic supercells and widespread severe/damaging winds.

Even so, greater than usual uncertainty exists regarding
redevelopment later today on the southern/western flank of ongoing
convection across northern IL into northeast MO and vicinity. A
gradual increase in both low-level and deep-layer shear is
anticipated across this area as a 30-40+ kt southerly low-level jet
develops eastward in tandem with the eastward-ejecting shortwave
trough and mid-level jet. A mix of supercells and bowing segments
appears probable as renewed thunderstorms develop along/ahead of the
surface cold front this afternoon in a strongly unstable and rather
favorably sheared environment. If at least semi-discrete supercell
structures can be maintained, then potential exists for several
tornadoes, and multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-2/3+) given
the enhanced low-level shear. Isolated large to very large hail may
also occur with any sustained supercells.

Otherwise, numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds
also appear likely through the period across parts of
northern/central IL into southern Lower MI and northern IN. Both the
ongoing cluster and eventual upscale growth of convection that
develops this afternoon will likely produce severe/damaging winds,
some of which could be significant (75+ mph). The northern extent of
the severe risk into WI and northern Lower MI remains uncertain, but
at least some wind and/or tornado threat will likely continue with
eastward extent into the southern Great Lakes and northern IN this
evening.

...Eastern Kansas/Southern Missouri into the Southern Plains...
Additional thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon and
evening along the trailing cold front into portions of eastern
KS/southern MO into the southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer shear
is forecast to lag behind/to the north of the cold front. Still,
around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear and moderate to strong
instability will support marginal supercell structures and loosely
organized multicells capable of producing both large hail and
damaging winds. A large component of boundary-parallel shear will
likely lead to clustering and messy convective modes through the
evening before thunderstorms gradually weaken with the loss of
daytime heating.

...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians...
Recent visible satellite imagery across much of the Mid-Atlantic and
central Appalachians shows mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions,
with ample low-level moisture present per latest surface
observations and area 12Z observed soundings. Large-scale ascent
associated with multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs
will likely support the development of widely scattered
thunderstorms by afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the
central Appalachians. Though deep-layer shear is forecast to remain
modest, moderate to strong instability will exist with continued
diurnal heating this afternoon. This will support stronger updrafts
capable of scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps isolated
hail. Multiple clusters should eventually emerge, with potential for
organizing along outflow/cold pools, and more focused corridors of
damaging winds possible across parts of the I-95 corridor from
northern VA to eastern PA and NJ.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120102
SWODY1
SPC AC 120100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the
Midwest and Great Lakes region. This includes the potential for
tornadoes (possibly strong), widespread/intense damaging winds (some
75+ mph), and isolated hail.

...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes...
A rather volatile environment remains in place this evening across
parts of IL/IN and southwest Lower MI, especially in the vicinity of
a modified outflow across northern IL/IN. Rich low-level moisture,
moderate to strong buoyancy, and strong low-level shear/SRH will
continue to support all severe hazards through much of the evening.
Convection has largely taken on a linear or cluster mode, with an
attendant threat of severe/damaging gusts and line-embedded
tornadoes. Any discrete cells that can be maintained within or ahead
of ongoing convection will continue to pose a conditional
strong-tornado threat, along with isolated hail potential. See MCD
1101 and MCD 1102 for more information regarding the short-term
threat in this area.

Increasing CINH and decreasing MLCAPE with eastward extent should
eventually result in a weakening trend, though an organized severe
threat may reach parts of southeast MI and western OH later tonight.


...OK/TX into MO/northern AR...
Scattered strong to locally severe storms are ongoing from parts of western/central OK into MO, generally along or just behind a
southward moving cold front. Moderate to strong buoyancy and
deep-layer shear of around 25-35 kt near the front will continue to
support occasional storm organization and a continued threat of hail
and localized severe gusts, though convection may increasingly
become undercut by the front with time. An isolated severe threat
may eventually spread toward the Red River into western/northern AR
late tonight.

...Mid Atlantic vicinity...
Loosely organized storm clusters with a history of producing wind
damage are approaching the Mid Atlantic coast this evening. While
deep-layer shear will continue to be modest at best, a very
warm/moist boundary layer and moderate buoyancy will continue to
support potential for strong to locally severe gusts and scattered
wind damage, before convection weakens and/or moves offshore later
tonight.

..Dean.. 06/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120601
SWODY1
SPC AC 120559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS...MID ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
hail and severe gusts will also be possible across parts of the
south-central High Plains.

...Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
across Quebec later today, with weak midlevel height falls forecast
to extend south of this shortwave into parts of the Appalachians,
Northeast, and Mid Atlantic. The strongest deep-layer flow will
remain north of the international border, but modest effective shear
(generally 20-30 kt) will overlap relatively strong heating and
modest buoyancy across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic.
Scattered outflow-driven clusters may develop with time and move
eastward, with an attendant threat of damaging wind and perhaps
isolated hail.

Deep-layer flow/shear will be even weaker into parts of the southern
Mid Atlantic/Carolinas vicinity. However, very strong heating of a
moist airmass will support potential for scattered thunderstorms
with downburst potential, and eventual evolution into loosely
organized clusters capable of damaging outflow winds from afternoon
into at least the early evening.

...South-central High Plains vicinity...
Moist southerly low-level flow beneath steepening midlevel lapse
rates will result in robust destabilization from the Raton Mesa
vicinity into the adjacent south-central High Plains, with MLCAPE
increasing to near/above 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Modest
westerly mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 30-35
kt, conditionally supportive of organized convection. Large-scale
ascent will remain subtle, but eventual storms may develop by late
afternoon near the higher terrain, and spread east-southeastward
with time.

Initial storms could evolve into isolated supercells, with a threat
of hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.
Consolidating outflow and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet
will support some upscale growth during the evening, with an
attendant severe-wind threat expected to spread across parts of the south-central High Plains.

Farther south, more isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible across parts of central/eastern NM into Far West TX, with a
threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts.

...Upper Midwest...
Relatively low-topped convection may develop late this afternoon
from the eastern Dakotas into MN, as low-level lapse rates steepen
beneath seasonably cool temperatures aloft. Robust
west-northwesterly flow aloft will conditionally favor some storm
organization, if sufficient buoyancy can develop. However, most
guidance depicts MLCAPE generally below 500 J/kg, with an
inconsistent signal for where the deepest convection might develop.
Some threat for marginal hail and/or locally damaging wind could
evolve across some part of this region, and probabilities may be
needed if confidence increases regarding sufficient destabilization
and storm coverage.

...Parts of NE into western IA...
Elevated convection may develop late in the period from parts of NE
into western IA, within a warm-advection regime to the north of a
warm front. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of
elevated moistening/destabilization (which may be affected by MCS
development to the south across KS) and coverage of storms prior to
the end of the forecast period. Effective shear will be sufficient
for at least modest storm organization and an isolated hail threat,
if sufficient destabilization can occur. The aforementioned
uncertainties and likely very late timing of any severe threat
preclude the addition of hail probabilities at this time.

...Parts of OK/north TX...
In the wake of morning convection, robust redevelopment cannot be
ruled out across parts of OK/north TX, near a outflow-influenced
surface boundary. Guidance varies substantially regarding the
coverage/location of storms through mid morning, resulting in
considerable uncertainty. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest
deep-layer shear could result in localized hail/wind potential, but
confidence in boundary placement and diurnal storm coverage is too
low for probabilities at this time.

..Dean/Weinman.. 06/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121632
SWODY1
SPC AC 121630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST...AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening...
Within the northern stream, a shortwave trough will progress
east-northeastward over the lower Great Lakes this
afternoon/evening, while an associated surface cold front moves
eastward into New England and southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong and the stronger
midlevel flow/deep-layer vertical shear will remain displaced to the
cool side of the front. Still, 25-30 kt midlevel flow will overlap
the warm sector this afternoon from northern Chesapeake Bay
northward into eastern NY. Strong surface heating is ongoing from
the Piedmont into VA/southern PA, with a few more cloud patches from
northeast PA into central NY. The net result will be moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) in an environment with steep
low-level lapse rates and weak upper flow, favoring multicell
clusters with occasional wind damage. The weak forcing for ascent
suggests that widely scattered, loosely organized clusters will be
possible this afternoon, with some gaps in the wind threat.

...Southern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO will draw low-level moisture
northwestward into the southern High Plains as a stalled front
begins to lift northward across the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon/evening with upslope flow
into the higher terrain of NM, and along the Raton Mesa. Deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells
initially off Raton Mesa, with large hail the primary threat. Some
upscale growth and an increase in the potential for severe outflow
gusts is expected late this evening as storms spread eastward toward
southwest KS and the northern Panhandles in association with a
nocturnal low-level jet and strengthened warm advection/moisture
transport.

...Eastern KS/western MO early Saturday...
In response to low-level warm advection and returning moisture,
elevated convection is probable late in the period across eastern
KS/western MO. This area will be near the east edge of the steep
midlevel lapse rates, where isolated large hail will be possible.
There will also be some potential for evolution into a cluster or
two with isolated damaging gusts. Farther north into eastern NE
(very near the end of the period) there will be a chance for
elevated storms with some hail. This area will be re-evaluated this
afternoon in the 20z update.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121958
SWODY1
SPC AC 121956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with minimal changes required
to the existing probability lines based on ongoing convective trends
and recent model guidance. The primary outlook amendment was the
introduction of 5% hail probabilities across portions of eastern
Nebraska.

...Nebraska...
12z ensemble guidance hinted at thunderstorm development across
eastern NE during the 09-12 UTC period as a weak low-level cold
front impinges on a plume of northward returning moisture. More
recent runs of the RAP/RRFS/HRRR continue to show this potential and
depict a fairly robust thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE
values upwards of 4000 J/kg. 18 UTC RAOBS from the southern High
Plains and Rockies sampled steep mid-level lapse rates that will
advect eastward over the next 18 hours, and recent model solutions
appear to be capturing surface moisture return well. These trends
lend sufficient confidence to introduce a targeted hail risk area.

...Mississippi/Alabama...
5% wind probabilities were removed across northern MS/AL based on
recent radar trends, which depict the outflow boundary of a decaying
MCS rapidly progressing south and undercutting developing
convection. Strong buoyancy immediately downstream may support some
localized damaging wind threat through the afternoon, but latest
model guidance largely shows diminishing convective activity as the
outflow surges south.

..Moore.. 06/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026/

...Mid-Atlantic into New England this afternoon/evening...
Within the northern stream, a shortwave trough will progress
east-northeastward over the lower Great Lakes this
afternoon/evening, while an associated surface cold front moves
eastward into New England and southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic.
Forcing for ascent will not be particularly strong and the stronger
midlevel flow/deep-layer vertical shear will remain displaced to the
cool side of the front. Still, 25-30 kt midlevel flow will overlap
the warm sector this afternoon from northern Chesapeake Bay
northward into eastern NY. Strong surface heating is ongoing from
the Piedmont into VA/southern PA, with a few more cloud patches from
northeast PA into central NY. The net result will be moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) in an environment with steep
low-level lapse rates and weak upper flow, favoring multicell
clusters with occasional wind damage. The weak forcing for ascent
suggests that widely scattered, loosely organized clusters will be
possible this afternoon, with some gaps in the wind threat.

...Southern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight...
Lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO will draw low-level moisture
northwestward into the southern High Plains as a stalled front
begins to lift northward across the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm
development is expected this afternoon/evening with upslope flow
into the higher terrain of NM, and along the Raton Mesa. Deep-layer
vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for supercells
initially off Raton Mesa, with large hail the primary threat. Some
upscale growth and an increase in the potential for severe outflow
gusts is expected late this evening as storms spread eastward toward
southwest KS and the northern Panhandles in association with a
nocturnal low-level jet and strengthened warm advection/moisture
transport.

...Eastern KS/western MO early Saturday...
In response to low-level warm advection and returning moisture,
elevated convection is probable late in the period across eastern
KS/western MO. This area will be near the east edge of the steep
midlevel lapse rates, where isolated large hail will be possible.
There will also be some potential for evolution into a cluster or
two with isolated damaging gusts. Farther north into eastern NE
(very near the end of the period) there will be a chance for
elevated storms with some hail. This area will be re-evaluated this
afternoon in the 20z update.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130102
SWODY1
SPC AC 130100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of producing large hail and scattered severe
wind gusts will spread east-southeastward across parts of the
south-central High Plains into the overnight hours. Locally damaging
gusts will remain possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic tonight.

...South-central High Plains...
Between a broad large-scale trough over the northern CONUS and an
upper ridge over the southern Plains, water-vapor imagery indicates
a subtle/low-amplitude impulse tracking eastward across the
central/southern High Plains -- embedded within a belt of enhanced
midlevel westerly flow. This feature and accompanying 40-50 kt of
effective shear will maintain an upscale-growing cluster of storms
as is tracks east-southeastward across the southern/central High
Plains into the overnight hours. In the near-term, large hail and
locally severe gusts will be the main concerns, especially with the
more separated updrafts/supercell structures evolving along the
southern flank of the convective cluster in northeastern NM. With
time, strengthening outflow and a nocturnal low-level jet will
promote further upscale growth and scattered severe/damaging gusts.
See Severe Thunderstorm Watch #323 for more information.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A cluster of thunderstorms tracking east-southeastward across the
Mid-Atlantic will continue to weaken over the next couple hours as
the boundary layer nocturnally stabilizes toward the coast.

...Eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
Positive low-level theta-e advection at the nose of a strengthening
low-level jet will promote isolated thunderstorm development late in
the period. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a statically stable
boundary layer will mostly favor elevated storms. Sufficient
deep-layer shear will support convective organization, and severe
hail will be possible with the stronger storms that evolve.

..Weinman.. 06/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130601
SWODY1
SPC AC 130559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central and southern Plains into the Missouri Valley. Swaths of
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are all
possible.

...Synopsis...
Within the base of a broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt
of strong midlevel westerlies over the northern CONUS, an embedded positive-tilt midlevel trough will overspread the northern Plains
through the period. In the low-levels, a weak surface low will move
slowly eastward across western/central KS during the day, before
being overtaken by a cold front into the evening hours.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Missouri Valley...
At the start of the period, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms
should be tracking eastward from NE into IA -- along the nose of a
gradually weakening nocturnal low-level jet. Steep midlevel lapse
rates and 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor large hail with
this activity. At the same time, a convectively augmented midlevel
impulse and lingering convection should be advancing eastward from
eastern KS into MO. Diurnal heating of a moist air mass should favor
a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity along
related outflow into the afternoon hours. Moderate surface-based
buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear will support organized
clusters and potentially supercells structures, with a risk of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Some guidance suggests that this
activity may grow upscale into one or more organized clusters while
moving east-southeastward into the evening hours.

Farther west, strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse
rates preceding the surface low will result in scattered
thunderstorm development from the central Plains into the lower MO
Valley. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture
will yield a strongly unstable air mass, which combined with around
40 kt of effective shear, will favor organized clusters and
semi-discrete supercells. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts
will be the main concerns with initially semi-discrete storms. With
time, additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southeastward-moving cold front. As a result, several
intense/organized clusters will spread east-southeastward through a
corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy -- posing an increasing
risk of scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph). Despite the
expectation for upscale growth, embedded supercells will remain
possible, and given ample low-level shear and rich moisture, a
couple tornadoes will also be possible.

..Weinman.. 06/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131255
SWODY1
SPC AC 131253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across
parts of the central and southern Plains to Missouri Valley and
Middle Mississippi Valley. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
An active severe-weather day is anticipated with multiple rounds of
severe storms expected regionally today into tonight. Near the nose
of a southwesterly low-level jet, an initial early day severe risk
will focus across southeast Nebraska, where elevated/increasingly
organized storms are ongoing just after dawn, into southern Iowa and
northern Missouri. Large hail will remain possible, but the
potential for damaging winds may increase relatively early today as
storms spread east-southeastward.

Meanwhile, a more complex scenario exists farther south,
attributable to persistent predawn storms across the Ozarks, as well
as a decayed convective cluster and one or more residual MCVs across
Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. These MCVs, as they focus deeper
convection along modifying outflow/differential heating zones,
should inspire renewed deeper convective development this afternoon
across parts of the Ozarks toward the Mid-South/middle Mississippi
Valley. This includes the potential for some supercells and
organizing clusters, with damaging winds and some hail as the
primary hazards through evening.

Farther west and later in the day, strong diurnal heating/steepening
low-level lapse rates preceding the surface low will result in
scattered thunderstorm development near/ahead of the
southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense development
likely favoring where the front intercepts the west-southwest
periphery of early day storms and any residual cloud cover/modifying
outflow. This will likely include central/eastern Kansas and
possibly far southeast Nebraska into western/northern Missouri.

Steep mid-level lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will
yield a strongly unstable air mass, which combined with around 40 kt
of effective shear, will support initial intense semi-discrete
supercells as then organizing clusters. All hazards seem likely
including large hail, with damaging winds potentially evolving as
the most prominent risk this evening, potentially including some
significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes will
also exist, particularly late afternoon into evening as the
low-level jet increases, with modifying outflow potentially another
factor across west/southwest Missouri and possibly far eastern
Kansas and vicinity.

...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast...
Ample heating within a moist environment south of a front will lead
to moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective
development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some
pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage
may occur this afternoon through around sunset.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131632
SWODY1
SPC AC 131630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight from
parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri and
Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Several different areas are already convectively active this
morning, including south-central IA/north-central MO where a bowing
segment is moving southeastward through the region, and farther
south from central/southern MO into far west-central IL, where
elevated thunderstorm are being maintained by modest warm-air
advection. Most immediate severe potential is downstream of the
bowing segment in south-central IA/north-central MO where damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail are possible over the next few hours.
Thereafter, expansive coverage of the ongoing storms in
central/southern MO introduces notable uncertainty regarding the
extent and strength of afternoon destabilization.

General expectation is for the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to
persist, aided by mesoscale ascent attendant to an MCV traversing
the region. Cloud cover will limit heating, but ample low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy. Moderate deep-layer
shear is anticipated over this area as well, with perhaps some more
mesoscale enhancement attendant to the MCV. As a result, a few
stronger embedded multicells and isolated supercells are possible.
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts could occur with the
strongest storms embedded within this likely broad area of showers
and thunderstorms.

A more complex scenario is anticipated along the western edge of the
MO cluster, extending back further westward into north-central KS.
Current surface analysis shows an outflow boundary over extreme
southeast NE arcing back through north-central KS to a low over far
northwest KS. A more substantial surface low exists over southwest
KS. Surface analysis also places a cold front from northwest IA
southwestward to just north of the northwest KS low in far southwest
NE. These boundaries should all influence convective evolution
today, with the outflow/differential heating boundary along the
western edge of the MO cluster likely playing a part as well.

Strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding
the surface lows will result in scattered thunderstorm development
near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense development likely favoring where the front intercepts the western
periphery of the outflow boundary. This intersection will most
likely be over central into northeast KS. Strong buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts capable of
large to very large hail early in the convective cycle, before
transitioning to a more linear mode as the front continues
southeastward.

Another area of afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated
from southern MO into west-central MO and far southeast KS, along
the western edge of the outflow/differential heating associated with
the ongoing MO cluster. Like the area farther northwest, large to
isolated very large hail is anticipated initially. Additionally,
this region could act as a corridor for upscale growth as the
development along the cold front begins to interact with the more
in-situ development along this boundary. Damaging winds will be the
most prominent risk within this corridor this evening, potentially
including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts.

Despite numerous boundaries, the environmental conditions (i.e. high
LCLs and modest surface wind) and anticipated convective evolution
(i.e. outflow-dominant storms with quick evolution towards a linear
mode) only suggest a low-probability tornado threat from discrete
storms. A somewhat higher tornado risk could materialize within any
more robust convective line that develops, particularly during
evening as the low-level jet increases.

...Lower MI...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
moving through the region today. Strong low to mid-level flow could
support a few more organized storms, beginning across northern Lower
MI now and then extending back southwestward with time this
afternoon/evening. Primary risks are isolated large hail and
damaging gusts, but a brief tornado is possible as well.

...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast...
Ample heating within a moist environment south of a weak front will
result in moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some
pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage
may occur this afternoon through around sunset.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 132003
SWODY1
SPC AC 132002

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight from
parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri and
Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...20z Update...
Only minor modifications were needed to the ongoing forecast based
on recent convective trends. The primary hazard continues to be
initially hail along the front with the onset of convection followed
by rapid upscale growth with an attendant severe wind threat across
eastern KS into adjacent portions of AR, MO, and OK. Given the
prevalence of outflow boundaries intersecting the front per recent
surface observations, there will likely be one or more mesoscale
corridors of higher tornado potential as one or more MCSs develop,
however, confidence is limited in how productive these corridors
will be give the expectation of upscale growth. For additional
short-term details see MCDs #1122, #1123, and #1124.

..Moore.. 06/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026/

...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Several different areas are already convectively active this
morning, including south-central IA/north-central MO where a bowing
segment is moving southeastward through the region, and farther
south from central/southern MO into far west-central IL, where
elevated thunderstorm are being maintained by modest warm-air
advection. Most immediate severe potential is downstream of the
bowing segment in south-central IA/north-central MO where damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail are possible over the next few hours.
Thereafter, expansive coverage of the ongoing storms in
central/southern MO introduces notable uncertainty regarding the
extent and strength of afternoon destabilization.

General expectation is for the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to
persist, aided by mesoscale ascent attendant to an MCV traversing
the region. Cloud cover will limit heating, but ample low-level
moisture will still support moderate buoyancy. Moderate deep-layer
shear is anticipated over this area as well, with perhaps some more
mesoscale enhancement attendant to the MCV. As a result, a few
stronger embedded multicells and isolated supercells are possible.
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts could occur with the
strongest storms embedded within this likely broad area of showers
and thunderstorms.

A more complex scenario is anticipated along the western edge of the
MO cluster, extending back further westward into north-central KS.
Current surface analysis shows an outflow boundary over extreme
southeast NE arcing back through north-central KS to a low over far
northwest KS. A more substantial surface low exists over southwest
KS. Surface analysis also places a cold front from northwest IA
southwestward to just north of the northwest KS low in far southwest
NE. These boundaries should all influence convective evolution
today, with the outflow/differential heating boundary along the
western edge of the MO cluster likely playing a part as well.

Strong diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates preceding
the surface lows will result in scattered thunderstorm development
near/ahead of the southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense development likely favoring where the front intercepts the western
periphery of the outflow boundary. This intersection will most
likely be over central into northeast KS. Strong buoyancy and
moderate deep-layer shear will support robust updrafts capable of
large to very large hail early in the convective cycle, before
transitioning to a more linear mode as the front continues
southeastward.

Another area of afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated
from southern MO into west-central MO and far southeast KS, along
the western edge of the outflow/differential heating associated with
the ongoing MO cluster. Like the area farther northwest, large to
isolated very large hail is anticipated initially. Additionally,
this region could act as a corridor for upscale growth as the
development along the cold front begins to interact with the more
in-situ development along this boundary. Damaging winds will be the
most prominent risk within this corridor this evening, potentially
including some significant (75+ mph) wind gusts.

Despite numerous boundaries, the environmental conditions (i.e. high
LCLs and modest surface wind) and anticipated convective evolution
(i.e. outflow-dominant storms with quick evolution towards a linear
mode) only suggest a low-probability tornado threat from discrete
storms. A somewhat higher tornado risk could materialize within any
more robust convective line that develops, particularly during
evening as the low-level jet increases.

...Lower MI...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of a cold front
moving through the region today. Strong low to mid-level flow could
support a few more organized storms, beginning across northern Lower
MI now and then extending back southwestward with time this
afternoon/evening. Primary risks are isolated large hail and
damaging gusts, but a brief tornado is possible as well.

...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast...
Ample heating within a moist environment south of a weak front will
result in moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some
pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage
may occur this afternoon through around sunset.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140102
SWODY1
SPC AC 140101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours
from parts of the central and southern Plains to the Lower Missouri
and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a couple tornadoes are all possible.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley...
Along a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front moving southeastward
across central KS, an expansive band of upscale-growing convection
will continue tracking southeastward into the overnight hours. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop a warm/moist boundary layer is yielding a
corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy. This, combined with 40-50
kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the convective gust front,
and a gradually strengthening low-level jet (evident in VWP data),
will support a swath of severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) with the
MCS. The greatest concentration of severe wind gusts is expected
across southeast KS and adjacent portions of northeastern OK and
western MO -- where the ENH risk remains in place. Additionally, a
couple embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out, given the
strengthening low-level jet/shear and moist boundary layer.

Farther south, one dominant right-moving supercell is ongoing along
a remnant outflow boundary in north-central OK. This storm will pose
the greatest risk of large hail and some tornado risk in the
near-term.

..Weinman.. 06/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140600
SWODY1
SPC AC 140558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity during the afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough and accompanying belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will move eastward from the Great
Lakes/upper OH Valley region into the Northeast through the period.
At the same time, a related cold front will advance eastward across
the OH Valley during the afternoon, before reaching the Mid-Atlantic
and southern New England coast during the overnight hours.

...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, focused within a pre-frontal trough extending
from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the lee of the southern
Appalachians. From roughly southern/eastern VA southward, upper 60s
to lower 70s dewpoints and steepening boundary-layer lapse rates
will yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storms. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited midlevel height
falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable air mass will
favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of producing
damaging wind gusts. Over the Mid-Atlantic region, stronger midlevel
westerly flow will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective shear amid
moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several loosely organized clusters capable of scattered damaging
wind gusts. Here, 30-percent wind probabilities remain in place, and
while a locally higher concentration of wind damage will be possible
with any longer-lived clusters that may evolve, this will be largely
dependent on mesoscale factors.

...Upper OH Valley into southern New England...
Along the cold front, a broken band of thunderstorms will spread
eastward from the lower Great Lakes into the upper OH Valley and
southern New England during the afternoon into the evening hours.
Stronger midlevel height falls and around 40 kt of front-parallel
effective shear should favor a linear mode, with the primary concern
being strong-severe wind gusts.

...Southern High Plains...
Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail. Additional
storms are expected along the boundary extending eastward across northern/central TX to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer shear
should limit storm longevity/organization here.

..Weinman/Halbert.. 06/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141256
SWODY1
SPC AC 141254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected across the Upper Ohio River Valley and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley to New England...
A shortwave trough will steadily amplify over the Great Lakes with a
moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow across the
region. Near/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, increasing
thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon, increasing
in both coverage and intensity. Ample mid-level height falls and
around 40 kt of front-parallel effective shear could support a few initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado and/or hail could also occur
given the relative strength of the wind profiles.

...Mid-Atlantic to southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, generally focusing on a pre-frontal trough as
well as high terrain/Blue Ridge vicinity, with some additional sea
breeze augmentations across the Carolinas/coastal plain. From
roughly southern/eastern Virginia southward, upper 60s to lower 70s
F dewpoints and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will
yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storm development. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited
midlevel height falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable
air mass will favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

Somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies will reside over the
Mid-Atlantic region, contributing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
amid moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several organized clusters capable of scattered damaging wind gusts,
and some locally higher concentrations of wind damage will be
possible with any longer-lived clusters that evolve.

...Southern High Plains...
Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail across
parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. Additional storms
are expected along the boundary extending eastward across
northern/central Texas to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer
shear should limit storm longevity/organization.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141633
SWODY1
SPC AC 141631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper
Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic States.

...Mid/Upper Ohio Valley to the Northeast/New England...
Morning surface analysis places a low over southeastern Lower MI,
along an extensive cold front that arcs from northwestern Ontario south-southwestward into southern IL and then more southwestward
through southern MO and central OK into the TX Permian Basin. This
cold front and attendant low are forecast to progress eastward
today, moving just ahead of a shortwave trough pivoting within the
base of a larger upper trough from the OH Valley through the
Northeast. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, with mesoanalysis currently estimating 60 kt at 500 mb
within the base of this shortwave over the IA/MO border.

Moderate low-level moisture is already in place ahead of this
shortwave trough and associated cold front across the OH Valley,
with upper 60s dewpoints currently observed over much of IN and OH.
Low-level moisture decreases with northeastward extent, with low 60s
dewpoints in place across much of PA and western NY, decreasing to
the upper 50s across much of New England. Filtered daytime heating
will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the cold front,
with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s resulting
in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg) across the
Middle to Upper OH Valley. Modest height falls and ascent along the
front will support thunderstorms within this moderately buoyant
environment. Around 40 kt effective shear could support a few initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts, particularly in the OH/PA border vicinity where
the best overlap of better buoyancy and shear exists. A brief
tornado and/or hail could also occur given the relative strength of
the wind profiles.

Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints will lead to more limited
buoyancy farther northeast (i.e. from western NY into New England).
However, the airmass is still expected to destabilize, supporting afternoon/evening thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
Effective shear around 35 to 40 kt should be sufficient for
occasional organization and some stronger bowing segments.

...Mid-Atlantic to TN/southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the modest lee
troughing expected to extend across the region this afternoon and
evening. This development is forecast to occur well ahead of the
cold front mentioned in the previous subsection, resulting in a
separate area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential from the
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.

Dewpoints across the region currently range from the upper 60s
across the central MD and VA to the low 70s across the central
Carolinas. Heating of this airmass will result in moderate to strong surface-based buoyancy. Shear will be weaker than areas farther
north but still sufficient for organized clusters and/or perhaps a
few supercells. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, with this
potential maximized from eastern PA and NJ southward through the VA
Tidewater region.

Also worth noting is the trend within the recent guidance for a
modestly organized convective line to progress from Middle
TN/northern AL through northern GA. This line appears to result from
upscale growth of a relatively higher concentration of multicells
initially over the western TN vicinity near a weak surface low.
Consistency within the guidance is high enough to extend 15% wind
probability back into middle TN/northern AL to cover this threat.

...Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across central NM
amid persistent westerly flow aloft and modest mid-level moisture.
Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support a few organized
updrafts capable of hail with any of the early, more cellular
development. Thereafter, a trend towards a more outflow-dominant,
linear structure is anticipated, and a few damaging gusts are
possible with any stronger bowing segments.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141950
SWODY1
SPC AC 141948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected this afternoon and evening from the Upper
Ohio River Valley into the Northeast, and from the Appalachians into
the Mid-Atlantic States.

...20z...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
required based on recent convective trends. As of 19:30 UTC, MRMS
imagery depicts an intensifying squall line with a history of severe
gusts moving eastward across northeast OH. This section of the
squall line remains well-phased with ascent and stronger mid-level
flow associated with the shortwave trough aloft. Downstream of the
squall line, a recent 18 UTC RAOB from PIT sampled a strongly
sheared and uncapped environment that should maintain squall line
intensity through early evening and lends confidence in the ongoing
wind forecast.

Further south across the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures continue to warm
into the mid 90s with the early stages of organized convection noted
along the Appalachians and within a surface trough in north-central
NC. Regional 18 UTC soundings sampled a sufficiently buoyant and
strongly sheared environment that will likely promote further
organization and intensification through the evening hours as
convection spreads east/northeast. See MCD #1141 for regional
details and the previous discussion below for additional forecast
information.

..Moore.. 06/14/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026/

...Mid/Upper Ohio Valley to the Northeast/New England...
Morning surface analysis places a low over southeastern Lower MI,
along an extensive cold front that arcs from northwestern Ontario south-southwestward into southern IL and then more southwestward
through southern MO and central OK into the TX Permian Basin. This
cold front and attendant low are forecast to progress eastward
today, moving just ahead of a shortwave trough pivoting within the
base of a larger upper trough from the OH Valley through the
Northeast. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, with mesoanalysis currently estimating 60 kt at 500 mb
within the base of this shortwave over the IA/MO border.

Moderate low-level moisture is already in place ahead of this
shortwave trough and associated cold front across the OH Valley,
with upper 60s dewpoints currently observed over much of IN and OH.
Low-level moisture decreases with northeastward extent, with low 60s
dewpoints in place across much of PA and western NY, decreasing to
the upper 50s across much of New England. Filtered daytime heating
will contribute to airmass destabilization ahead of the cold front,
with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s resulting
in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 800-1000 J/kg) across the
Middle to Upper OH Valley. Modest height falls and ascent along the
front will support thunderstorms within this moderately buoyant
environment. Around 40 kt effective shear could support a few initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts, particularly in the OH/PA border vicinity where
the best overlap of better buoyancy and shear exists. A brief
tornado and/or hail could also occur given the relative strength of
the wind profiles.

Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints will lead to more limited
buoyancy farther northeast (i.e. from western NY into New England).
However, the airmass is still expected to destabilize, supporting afternoon/evening thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
Effective shear around 35 to 40 kt should be sufficient for
occasional organization and some stronger bowing segments.

...Mid-Atlantic to TN/southern Appalachians/Carolinas...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the modest lee
troughing expected to extend across the region this afternoon and
evening. This development is forecast to occur well ahead of the
cold front mentioned in the previous subsection, resulting in a
separate area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential from the
Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic.

Dewpoints across the region currently range from the upper 60s
across the central MD and VA to the low 70s across the central
Carolinas. Heating of this airmass will result in moderate to strong surface-based buoyancy. Shear will be weaker than areas farther
north but still sufficient for organized clusters and/or perhaps a
few supercells. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, with this
potential maximized from eastern PA and NJ southward through the VA
Tidewater region.

Also worth noting is the trend within the recent guidance for a
modestly organized convective line to progress from Middle
TN/northern AL through northern GA. This line appears to result from
upscale growth of a relatively higher concentration of multicells
initially over the western TN vicinity near a weak surface low.
Consistency within the guidance is high enough to extend 15% wind
probability back into middle TN/northern AL to cover this threat.

...Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across central NM
amid persistent westerly flow aloft and modest mid-level moisture.
Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support a few organized
updrafts capable of hail with any of the early, more cellular
development. Thereafter, a trend towards a more outflow-dominant,
linear structure is anticipated, and a few damaging gusts are
possible with any stronger bowing segments.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150043
SWODY1
SPC AC 150042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity spreading toward the northern Mid Atlantic
urban corridor this evening could still pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado or two, before weakening
and spreading offshore.

...01Z Update...
Low-level lapse rates are beginning to stabilize and the
boundary-layer remains only modestly moist inland of coastal areas
from New Jersey northward. However, the leading edge of a plume of boundary-layer moisture return characterized by upper 60s to near
70F surface dew points is still contributing to CAPE on the order of
1000 J/kg across parts of central and eastern Maryland into
southeastern Pennsylvania, where temperatures remain near 80 F.
With stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent still upstream, vigorous thunderstorm development may be maintained into and across much of
eastern Pennsylvania and portions of the lower Hudson Valley through
mid to late evening.

Low-level hodographs across this region still appear conducive to at
least some risk for a tornado, mainly in the more discrete stronger
cells preceding the pre-frontal convective line. While the line has
recently been weakening, some re-intensification still appears
possible, which could be accompanied by increasing potential for
strong to severe surface gusts, in the presence of 40-50 kt
southwesterly deep-layer mean flow.

..Kerr.. 06/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150528
SWODY1
SPC AC 150527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity may impact the higher terrain of
northeastern New Mexico into adjacent high plains late this
afternoon into evening, accompanied by at least some potential for
severe hail and wind.

...Discussion...
Higher latitude blocking appears likely to persist with little
general change through this period. This regime will maintain a
broad area of cyclonic flow with anomalously low heights, which may
deepen further to the south of the central and eastern Canadian/U.S.
border vicinity, as a significant short wave trough digs across the
Dakotas through portions of the Upper Midwest by 12Z Tuesday.

Models indicate that this is likely to be accompanied by a more
notable southward surge of cooler/drier air, in the wake of a
stalling, weakening preceding cold front reaching the southern
Atlantic/Gulf Coast vicinity. With higher boundary-layer moisture
content and stronger potential instability largely becoming confined
to the south of the westerlies, the potential for organized severe
thunderstorm development appears seasonably low today through
tonight.

...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...
Beneath a northwesterly mid-level regime, which may modestly
strengthen to the southwest of the digging short wave trough by this
late afternoon, models indicate that moistening on southerly
low-level flow may contribute to modest destabilization across the eastern/southeastern slopes of the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains into Raton Mesa vicinity. Perhaps aided by forcing for
ascent accompanying a subtle digging short wave perturbation, it
appears possible that thunderstorm activity, initiating with
destabilization across the higher terrain, could consolidate into a
small organizing cluster while propagating southeastward into the
adjacent high plains. Forecast soundings across this region suggest
that thermodynamic profiles may become potentially conducive to the
development of large hail and strong to severe wind gusts into mid
to late evening.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 06/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151247
SWODY1
SPC AC 151245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across
the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon
and evening.

...Southern High Plains...
Beneath a northwesterly mid-level flow regime, lee side cyclogenesis
today will influence additional northward moistening regionally, in
the presence of low-level upslope trajectories with diurnal
differential heating along the higher terrain including the Raton
Mesa. Thunderstorms will develop/increase through mid/late afternoon
across eastern New Mexico/far southeast Colorado, and could expand northeastward into southwest Kansas by evening. Modest buoyancy and
30-40 kt effective shear regionally will be supportive of a few
supercells and sustained multicells, with potential consolidation
into small organizing southeastward-moving clusters. Isolated
instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts may occur
mainly late this afternoon through mid-evening.

...Dakotas/Minnesota...
Influenced by a clipper-type southeastward-digging shortwave trough,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a
southeastward-moving pre-frontal trough/cold front this afternoon.
While overall moisture/buoyancy will be limited, diurnally
steepening lapse rates and strengthening mid-level
west-northwesterly winds could yield some hail, and more so,
strong/locally severe wind gusts this afternoon through around
sunset.

...Gulf Coast/Coastal Southeast...
Some stronger pulse-type storms with gusty winds may occur this
afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment to the
south of a front. However, current expectations are for the
severe-storm risk to remain highly localized with organized severe
potential remaining limited overall.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151612
SWODY1
SPC AC 151611

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across
the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon
and evening.

...Southern High Plains...
Northwesterly flow aloft will support a sharpening lee trough across
the southern High Plains today, with lee cyclogenesis yielding a
surface low over southeast CO by the late afternoon. Mass response
to the deepening lee trough and developing surface low will result
in moist low-level southeasterly/southerly flow across much of the
southern High Plains. This moistening will help offset mixing via
diurnal heating, keeping dewpoints in the 50s through the afternoon.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place as well, with the
combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates
supporting airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy by this
afternoon.

Thunderstorm development is initially expected over the high terrain
of south-central CO and central NM during the afternoon. Moderate
deep-layer westerly flow will take these storms into the lower
elevations of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and
evening. Moderate buoyancy combined with 30 to 40 kt of effective
shear will support the potential for a few supercells and sustained
multicells, with potential consolidation into small organizing southeastward-moving clusters. Hail is possible early in the
convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts within
any forward-propagating clusters during the late afternoon and
evening.

...Dakotas/Minnesota...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
dropping southeastward into the northern Plains within the western
periphery of a broad upper trough that extends over much of the
central and eastern CONUS. Surface moisture will be limited ahead of
this wave, but low to mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave
and cold temperatures aloft will still support modest buoyancy
across the region this afternoon. This buoyancy coupled with ascent
from the shortwave will result in isolated to widely scattered
high-based thunderstorms. Additionally, strengthening
west-northwesterly flow attendant to the shortwave could yield some strong/locally severe wind gusts this afternoon through around
sunset.

...Gulf Coast/Coastal Southeast...
A very moist airmass is in place in the vicinity of a weak frontal
zone that extends from the TX Coast northeastward through the
central Gulf Coast and southern GA. Numerous to widespread showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated across much of this region. The
airmass is weakly sheared, favoring a slow-moving, disorganized
storm evolution with heavy rain as the primary risk (as noted in the
Day 1 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook). However, a few damaging gusts
from water-loaded downbursts are still possible. Overall coverage is
expected to remain less than 5%.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/15/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151944
SWODY1
SPC AC 151943

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across
the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon
and evening.

...20z Update...
No appreciable forecast changes were required. Based on latest
analyses, the highest severe wind threat remains across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota where low-level lapse rates have increased
to near dry adiabatic ahead of approaching convection attendant to a
low-level vorticity maximum. A few recent severe wind gusts have
accompanied some of this convection as it moves into the plume of
steep low-level lapse rates. However, based on latest guidance
thunderstorm coverage should remain widely scattered through early
evening, suggesting that 5% wind probabilities remain the most
appropriate characterization of the risk.

Across the southern High Plains, convective initiation is underway
within the southern Rockies. Per MRMS vertical ice trends, some
large hail may accompany some of this initial activity before it
spreads east through the evening. Based on latest model trends, a
convective cluster will likely materialize out of the scattered
thunderstorms north of the Albuquerque area and will pose a severe
wind threat downstream across east-central NM later this evening. As
with the northern Plains, this threat should be sufficiently
isolated to maintain only 5% wind probabilities. See the previous
discussion below and MCDs #1149 and #1150 for additional forecast
details.

..Moore.. 06/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026/

...Southern High Plains...
Northwesterly flow aloft will support a sharpening lee trough across
the southern High Plains today, with lee cyclogenesis yielding a
surface low over southeast CO by the late afternoon. Mass response
to the deepening lee trough and developing surface low will result
in moist low-level southeasterly/southerly flow across much of the
southern High Plains. This moistening will help offset mixing via
diurnal heating, keeping dewpoints in the 50s through the afternoon.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place as well, with the
combination of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates
supporting airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy by this
afternoon.

Thunderstorm development is initially expected over the high terrain
of south-central CO and central NM during the afternoon. Moderate
deep-layer westerly flow will take these storms into the lower
elevations of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and
evening. Moderate buoyancy combined with 30 to 40 kt of effective
shear will support the potential for a few supercells and sustained
multicells, with potential consolidation into small organizing southeastward-moving clusters. Hail is possible early in the
convective cycle, with a trend towards more damaging gusts within
any forward-propagating clusters during the late afternoon and
evening.

...Dakotas/Minnesota...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
dropping southeastward into the northern Plains within the western
periphery of a broad upper trough that extends over much of the
central and eastern CONUS. Surface moisture will be limited ahead of
this wave, but low to mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave
and cold temperatures aloft will still support modest buoyancy
across the region this afternoon. This buoyancy coupled with ascent
from the shortwave will result in isolated to widely scattered
high-based thunderstorms. Additionally, strengthening
west-northwesterly flow attendant to the shortwave could yield some strong/locally severe wind gusts this afternoon through around
sunset.

...Gulf Coast/Coastal Southeast...
A very moist airmass is in place in the vicinity of a weak frontal
zone that extends from the TX Coast northeastward through the
central Gulf Coast and southern GA. Numerous to widespread showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated across much of this region. The
airmass is weakly sheared, favoring a slow-moving, disorganized
storm evolution with heavy rain as the primary risk (as noted in the
Day 1 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook). However, a few damaging gusts
from water-loaded downbursts are still possible. Overall coverage is
expected to remain less than 5%.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160035
SWODY1
SPC AC 160034

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may continue to pose at least some
risk for severe weather through mid to late evening across parts of
the southern high plains.

...01Z Update...
A subtle short wave impulse digging across the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity appeared to provide support for the
ongoing cluster of thunderstorms now overspreading the New
Mexico/Texas state border vicinity, near and northwest of Clovis.
Some discrete thunderstorm development persists southwest of Clovis,
and to the north/northwest of Roswell, which could pose a risk for
severe hail another hour or two. Otherwise, updraft inflow into the
primary cluster already appears to be coming characterized by less
instability, based on latest mesoanalysis and convective trends. As
this continues, convection appears likely to weaken further with
diminishing potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts
through 02-03Z.

Farther north, convergence near a weak surface low to the
north-northeast of the Raton Mesa vicinity finally appears to be
supporting the initiation of isolated thunderstorm development near Springfield, CO. In the presence of steep-lapse rates, low-level
moistening appears to have become supportive of CAPE up to 1000
J/kg. Beneath 30-35 kt northwesterly winds around 500 mb, shear
appears to conducive to the evolution of a supercell which could
persist for an hour or two this evening, before acquiring more
stable inflow while tending to propagate southeastward.

..Kerr.. 06/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160551
SWODY1
SPC AC 160550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO MIDWEST AND
NEAR THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of mainly widely scattered strong thunderstorm development,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, are possible
across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and near the
Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight.

...Discussion...
Higher latitude blocking appears likely to maintain a broad area of
cyclonic mid-level flow with anomalously low heights to the lee of
the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic
Seaboard. Within this regime, models suggest that an initially
vigorous short wave trough (now digging into the Upper Midwest) may
maintain strength into and across the Lake Michigan vicinity, before
undergoing considerable deformation while turning eastward and
northeastward, to the southeast of a mid-level becoming centered
near the northern Manitoba/northwestern Ontario border. After
rounding the crest of mid-level ridging centered over the northern
mid-latitude eastern Pacific, it appears that another significant
short wave perturbation will dig through the broadly confluent
regime to the southwest of the low, across the northern Rockies
through northern Great Plains by late tonight.

In lower latitudes, mid/upper ridging emanating from the subtropical
Atlantic may maintain considerable influence across the Florida
peninsula today, while weak troughing, perhaps with a developing
mid-level cyclonic circulation, slowly pivots across the lower Texas
and Mexican Gulf coast.

In lower levels, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content has
generally been maintained across much of the Gulf coastal plain. It
appears that strengthening southerly low-level flow may support more substantive moisture return to the southeast of deepening surface
troughing across the northern into central Great Plains by late
tonight.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Weak convection accompanying forcing for ascent associated with the
lead short wave trough appears likely to persist and perhaps
increase across the Upper Midwest through Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley during the day. Coinciding low-level cooling is likely to at
least slow, if not inhibit, boundary layer warming in the wake of
this activity. However, various model output suggests that
associated low-level moistening, coupled with a period of insolation
beneath a developing mid-level dry slot, may be sufficient to
support a corridor of modest destabilization as the mid-level cold
pool (including 500 mb temperatures around -18 to -20C) overspreads
the southern Lake Michigan vicinity late this afternoon. This
environment might become sufficient for a developing broken band of
vigorous convection, perhaps including supercells, posing a risk for
severe hail/wind and possibly a tornado or two, before weakening
later this evening.

...Central Great Plains...
Forcing for ascent to support convective development along the
stalling cold front, trailing the short wave trough progressing into
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, remains unclear. However, there
appears a general consensus within model output that boundary-layer
moistening may support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg across
parts of southern Kansas into southwestern Missouri, where mid-level
inhibition may remain weak enough through late afternoon/early
evening to allow for isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm
initiation. If this occurs, guidance indicates sufficient shear for
supercell development, before increasing inhibition suppresses
convection later this evening.

...Gulf Coast...
Models indicate modest strengthening of westerly flow (including
20-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) in a belt across the north central
through northeastern Gulf coast vicinity today. Coinciding with destabilization driven by daytime heating of the seasonably moist
boundary layer, this may support modestly organizing convection,
perhaps transient supercell structures, posing a risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado or two.

...Northern Great Plains into Midwest...
Models suggest that a corridor of fairly deep boundary-layer mixing
will precede the vigorous short wave trough digging across and
east-southeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. It appears
that associated mid-level forcing for ascent will contribute to
sufficient destabilization to support scattered thunderstorm
development with potential to produce some hail and scattered strong
to severe surface gusts late this afternoon into evening.

Within strengthening downstream warm advection, forcing for ascent
may begin to interact with better elevated moisture return to
support increasing strong thunderstorm development with potential to
producing severe hail by late tonight, across parts of eastern Iowa
and adjacent portions of the Midwest.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 06/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161300
SWODY1
SPC AC 161258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across multiple
parts of the Midwest, as well as on a more isolated basis across the
Gulf Coast, south-central Plains and northern Plains.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A low amplitude shortwave trough will amplify and spread
east-southeastward over the Great Lakes today. While overall
moisture content will remain modest, steady low-level moistening is
expected ahead of a surface low/cold front, and south of a north/northeastward-shifting warm front. This moistening and
insolation beneath a developing mid-level dry slot should support a
corridor of modest destabilization as the mid-level cold pool
(including 500 mb temperatures around -18 to -20C) overspreads the
region this afternoon. This environment should become sufficient for
a developing broken band of strong/severe low-topped storms
including supercells, posing a risk for severe hail/damaging winds
and possibly a couple of tornadoes from mid-afternoon through early
evening.

...Iowa/Upper Midwest late tonight...
A categorical Slight Risk has been introduced for what should be a
steadily increasing late-night/pre-dawn potential for large hail, at
least on isolated basis. This potential should tend to focus across
parts of central/eastern Iowa. Exact details of timing/spatial
extent of cap erosion are a bit uncertain, but will defer to a
significantly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and east/southeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer and ample
source-region elevated buoyancy regarding concern for large hail.
This will be as robust warm/moist advection develops and initial
height falls arrive into the region early Wednesday with increasing
elevated convection probable.

...South-central Plains...
Near/ahead of the stalling front, boundary-layer moistening may
support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg across parts of southern
Kansas into southwestern Missouri, where mid-level inhibition may
remain weak enough through late afternoon/early evening to allow for isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development. Sufficient
vertical shear could support supercell development. Additional
severe storm development, at least on an isolated basis, is
plausible farther west-southwest later in the afternoon/early
evening across northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Texas
Panhandle.

...Northern Great Plains into Midwest...
Models suggest that a corridor of fairly deep boundary-layer mixing
will precede the vigorous short wave trough digging across and
east-southeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Associated
mid-level forcing for ascent will contribute to sufficient
destabilization to support scattered thunderstorm development with
potential to produce some hail and scattered strong to severe
surface gusts late this afternoon into evening.

...Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic...
Some strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur tonight as
convection develop near/north of a near-coastal/offshore surface low
and northward-advancing warm front. Storms will tend to be elevated
inland, but modest buoyancy and strong unidirectional shear through
the cloud-bearing layer could yield some hail and/or gusty winds.

...Gulf Coast...
Strengthening westerly flow, including 20-40 kt in the 850-500 mb
layer, is anticipated regionally coincident with a moist boundary
layer. As diurnal heating/destabilization occurs, this may support
modestly organizing convection, perhaps transient supercell
structures, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado or two.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161615
SWODY1
SPC AC 161613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN...AND TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF IOWA....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight across
multiple parts of the Midwest, as well as on a more isolated basis
across the Gulf Coast, south-central Plains and northern Plains.

...IN/Lower MI...
Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and progressive Clipper
system tracking southeastward across MN/WI. A band of clouds and
isolated thunderstorms precedes this system, extending from southern
Lower MI into central IL. While a few strong storms are possible to
develop in this band, the greater risk for severe storms appears to
be associated with a period of heating in the wake of these clouds.
Steep lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will combine with
dewpoints around 60F to result in sufficient afternoon/evening CAPE
for widely scattered strong/severe storm development. Large hail
will be the initial main concern, along with some risk of a tornado
or two. By early evening, damaging winds will be the main concern.

...IA Overnight...
The next in a series of fast-moving upper-level features will move
across the Dakotas tonight, with large-scale forcing for ascent
spreading into parts of MN/IA before 12z. This ascent will begin
interacting with a plume of returning moisture, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the pre-dawn hours. Elevated supercells
capable of large hail will be the main risk through 12z.

...MT/ND...
The aforementioned upper feature will affect northeast MT and the
Dakotas this afternoon and evening. A deeply-mixed boundary layer
will develop over this area with temperatures in the 80s and 35-45F
t-td spreads. CAPE will be rather weak, which should limit overall
convective organization. Nevertheless, fast-moving high-based
showers and thunderstorms capable of gusty and occasionally severe
wind gusts are expected.

...Gulf Coast...
The tropical system (PTC 1) along the south TX coast is expected to
slowly organize today, with widespread showers and thunderstorms
from east TX into the central Gulf coast. Low-level winds are not
particularly strong and forecast hodographs are only marginally
favorable for updraft rotation. Nevertheless with such a broad area
of risk, a tornado or two is certainly possible this afternoon
through tonight.

..Hart/Lyons.. 06/16/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161957
SWODY1
SPC AC 161955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND IOWA TONIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and tonight
across multiple parts of the Midwest, as well as on a more isolated
basis across the Gulf Coast, south-central Plains and northern
Plains.

...20z Update Wisconsin and Michigan to Illinois and Indiana...
Beneath the cold core of the clipper, steep mid-level lapse rates
and weak buoyancy are supporting scattered thunderstorms. While
available MUCAPE is somewhat limited (500-750 J/kg) 500 mb temps
near -20C are supportive of marginally severe hail with the stronger
cores. This threat should end by evening as buoyancy declines with
the loss of diurnal heating. Have expanded the 5% hail across Lake
Michigan into the UP and eastern WI shores.

Southern portions of the Level 2 Slight risk were also expanded into
eastern IL where robust convection is expected along the cold front
this afternoon and evening. Hail, damaging gusts and a couple of
tornadoes remain possible.

...MT and northern Plains into the Midwest tonight...
Ahead of the strong belt of mid-level flow ahead of the upper trough
moving out of Canada, afternoon model guidance remains bullish on
several rounds of strong and occasionally severe storms late tonight
into early Wed. However, CAPE will be rather weak, which should
limit overall convective organization. Isolated severe gusts remain
possible.

The upstream convection will eventually intersect with a rapidly
moistening air mass across parts of IA and the Midwest. This will
likely result in a cluster of more robust severe storms near
daybreak across SD, IA and MN at the nose of a 50+ kt 850 mb jet.
Increasingly strong vertical shear from the upstream trough/jet will
support supercells or elevated bowing segments capable of hail and
severe wind gusts by 12z Wed. Have connected the MRGL areas over the
northern Plains into the Midwest.

...Southern and central Plains...
Strong heating along the stalled front initially over the southern
and central Plains could result in isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening. Increasing
vertical shear and low-level moisture advection could favor some
risk for hail with supercells. However, warm temperatures aloft and
only modest large-scale forcing for ascent casts considerable
uncertainty on storm development/maintenance this evening. Should a
supercell or two become established, large hail and damaging gusts
would be possible before ending overnight.

..Lyons.. 06/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026/

...IN/Lower MI...
Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and progressive Clipper
system tracking southeastward across MN/WI. A band of clouds and
isolated thunderstorms precedes this system, extending from southern
Lower MI into central IL. While a few strong storms are possible to
develop in this band, the greater risk for severe storms appears to
be associated with a period of heating in the wake of these clouds.
Steep lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will combine with
dewpoints around 60F to result in sufficient afternoon/evening CAPE
for widely scattered strong/severe storm development. Large hail
will be the initial main concern, along with some risk of a tornado
or two. By early evening, damaging winds will be the main concern.

...IA Overnight...
The next in a series of fast-moving upper-level features will move
across the Dakotas tonight, with large-scale forcing for ascent
spreading into parts of MN/IA before 12z. This ascent will begin
interacting with a plume of returning moisture, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the pre-dawn hours. Elevated supercells
capable of large hail will be the main risk through 12z.

...MT/ND...
The aforementioned upper feature will affect northeast MT and the
Dakotas this afternoon and evening. A deeply-mixed boundary layer
will develop over this area with temperatures in the 80s and 35-45F
t-td spreads. CAPE will be rather weak, which should limit overall
convective organization. Nevertheless, fast-moving high-based
showers and thunderstorms capable of gusty and occasionally severe
wind gusts are expected.

...Gulf Coast...
The tropical system (PTC 1) along the south TX coast is expected to
slowly organize today, with widespread showers and thunderstorms
from east TX into the central Gulf coast. Low-level winds are not
particularly strong and forecast hodographs are only marginally
favorable for updraft rotation. Nevertheless with such a broad area
of risk, a tornado or two is certainly possible this afternoon
through tonight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170102
SWODY1
SPC AC 170100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF IOWA
AND OVER A SMALL PART OF CENTRAL INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing hail remain possible from southern Kansas
into northwest Oklahoma this evening. Isolated severe hail or wind
will persist across the northern Plains and into Iowa by Wednesday
morning. Isolated severe storms may persist from Indiana into
western Ohio this evening.

...IN/OH/MI...
00Z DTX and ILN soundings show modest instability but favorable
shear profiles to sustain cellular storm mode this evening. However,
storms across this region are beginning to decrease in coverage and
intensity, though isolated strong to severe storms may persist with
marginal hail or brief tornado risk before the upper trough moves
out of the area and the air mass stabilizes.

...KS/OK/TX Panhandle...
A mixed boundary layer, increasing low-level jet and northwest flow
aloft is aiding a few cells over southwest KS into northwest OK.
Periodic large damaging hail remain possible, and a cell or two may
persist this evening, perhaps toward the eastern TX Panhandle as
moisture returns northwestward. However, the cooling boundary layer
will eventually result in decreasing coverage.

...From MT to IA...
Scattered storms exist from MT into ND, beneath cool temperatures
aloft with the developing upper trough. Locally severe gusts may
occur with any of this activity as a relatively dry/mixed sub cloud
layer exists on 00Z soundings.

Later tonight, as the low-level jet increases into the central
Plains, a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will reach eastern NE into
IA, and may fuel cells initially producing hail following a possible
MCS.

..Jewell.. 06/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170558
SWODY1
SPC AC 170556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected today, with primary
threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Several intense
tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging
wind-driven hail will all be possible.

...IL...IN...MO...OH...
An intense mid and upper level jet will nose southeastward across
the Midwest today, with a prominent leading disturbance moving out
of IA and into IL through midday. Severe storms are likely to be
associated with this early wave as a southwesterly low-level jet
increases to 60 kt and rapidly bring instability into the area. This
initial activity will bring damaging winds to eastern IA and
northern/central IL. This system is expected to weaken later in the
afternoon, but some remnants will move across IN.

Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push north across IN
and OH. New severe storm development, perhaps transitioning out of
the remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible
across northern IN into northwest OH. Shear profiles will be
excessive, with tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability
being present. The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells.

To the west, the air mass across northern MO, IL, and into central
IN will easily recover and rapidly destabilize due to strong
southwest winds. A 60+ kt low-level jet is forecast, with notably
strong winds around 700 mb as well (surface to 3 km shear values may
exceed 60 kt). A plume of 65-70 F dewpoints will likely extend from
central MO into IL and western IN in the 21-00Z time frame,
contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE.

A broken line of supercells is likely to develop and mature roughly
from northern IN into central IL and MO around 21Z and spreading
east/southeast through early evening. Given the clearly
supercellular shear profiles, linear storm mode is unlikely for most
of the event. Long-tracked supercells producing tornadoes and
damaging hail are likely.

Finally, the warm frontal position will need to be monitored near
the IN/MI border. Even if instability is elevated into MI, extreme
shear and lift may still yield damaging winds and even a tornado
risk. As such, probabilities have been increased into far southern
Lower MI.

...Upper TX Coast into the northern Gulf Coast...
The NHC forecast shows Potential TC One moving into southwest LA by
00Z. Wind fields associated with this system will strengthen out of
the south ahead of it, resulting in areas of strong low-level shear
from TX into southern LA, and possibly into MS. Mid to upper 70 F
dewpoints will contribute to modest CAPE values, supporting embedded
stronger cells with tornado potential.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171301
SWODY1
SPC AC 171259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected today into tonight,
with the peak threat centered over Illinois and Indiana. Several
intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven large hail will all be possible.

...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana/Missouri/Ohio...
A very active/potentially dangerous day is expected today into
tonight, although some sub-regional forecast details remain a bit
uncertain. This is largely attributable to an upscale-growing
intense MCS which has been evolving in the predawn hours across
central/eastern Iowa, moving south of the I-80 corridor as of 730am
CDT. Measured significant wind gusts in excess of 80 mph have been
observed before sunrise, including a measured 94 mph measured wind
gust in Marshall County, Iowa.

This intense and increasingly well-organized MCS will continue to be
influenced by an extremely strong southwesterly jet of 70 kt and
robust warm advection/moisture transport, and likely continue
southeastward from southeast Iowa into north-central/west-central
Illinois. This will likely include an increasing potential for
surface-based storms and an appreciable uptick in damaging
wind/tornado potential early today, especially on the
south-southwest flank of the MCS in closer proximity to the northeastward-shifting warm front.

Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push
north-northeastward across Indiana/Ohio. New severe storm
development, perhaps MCV-influenced and transitioning out of the
remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible
across Indiana into Ohio. Shear profiles will be excessive, with
tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present.
The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells. The warm frontal
position will need to be monitored northward toward the
Indiana/Michigan border vicinity. Even if instability is elevated
into Michigan, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds
and even a tornado risk.

To the west, rapid air mass recovery is expected on the
west-southwestern flank of the early day MCS from Missouri into central/possibly parts of northern Illinois, even where appreciable
early day MCS impacts occur early. This recovery will be fueled by
mid-June insolation/moisture content and robust advection, again
attributable to atypically robust (50-65 kt) low/mid-tropospheric west-southwesterly flow by mid-June/diurnal standards. In the
presence of 65-70 F surface dewpoints, this will likely result in a
corridor of 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE.

This will likely set the stage for the development of a broken line
of intense supercells, potentially favoring prior outflow (or
outflow-augmented warm front) and post-MCS recovery zone of
differential heating across Illinois and perhaps eventually into
western Indiana. Given the clearly supercellular shear profiles and
ample venting aloft, linear storm mode is unlikely for most of the
event. Long-tracked supercells producing tornadoes and damaging
large hail are likely. Some strong to potentially intense tornadoes
are plausible given the magnitude of the low/mid-tropospheric flow,
and again potentially heightened in vicinity of the prior
outflow/warm front. Some damaging wind threat will likely also
increase by evening as storms continue across Indiana into Ohio and
potentially southward toward the Ohio River.

...Upper Texas Coast/Middle Gulf Coast...
The NHC forecast shows Potential Tropical Cyclone One moving into
southwest Louisiana by this evening. Wind fields associated with
this system will strengthen out of the south ahead of it, resulting
in areas of strong low-level shear from the upper Texas coast across
southern portions of Louisiana and eventually into southern
Mississippi. Mid to upper 70 F dewpoints will contribute to modest
CAPE values, supporting embedded stronger cells with tornadic
potential.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171630
SWODY1
SPC AC 171628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
tonight, with the peak threat centered over Illinois and Indiana.
Intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven large hail will all be possible.

...MO/IL/IN...
An intense and fast-moving shortwave trough continues to approach
the Midwest today, with an associated 90+ knot mid level jet
streaking across the region. A very strong southerly low-level jet
precedes this trough, and has resulted in widespread thunderstorms
over central IL. The effects of this early convection will be
important to the mesoscale details of where the main risk of severe
storms will develop later today.

The primary outflow boundary from ongoing storms currently extends
from extreme northeast MO into south-central IL, and continues to
sag southward. Strong heating is occurring to the south of the
boundary, and given the intense low-level flow, some northward
return is expected. However, it appears unlikely to substantially
destabilize as far north as earlier forecasts. The zone in vicinity
of the boundary will become very unstable by mid-late afternoon,
with forecast soundings continuing to show impressive shear values
and hodograph structures suggestive of tornadic supercell potential.
Very large hail and damaging winds will also be possible with this
activity as it tracks quickly eastward into central IN. Strong
tornadoes are possible.

By mid-evening, a line of severe storms will likely extend from
central MO into southern IN, with damaging winds becoming the
primary threat.

...Southeast MN...
A small area of heating/destabilization has developed near the
surface low over southern MN. Cold temperatures aloft and strong
deep-layer shear suggests a threat of a few severe storms capable of
hail and gusty/damaging winds this afternoon.

...LA/MS...
Tropical Storm Arthur will track northward and affect LA and
southern MS tonight. A zone of strong southerly low-level winds to
the east of the circulation will result in some concern for
overnight and pre-dawn tornadoes across southeast LA into far
southern MS.

...Southern AZ/NM...
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected across
southeast AZ and southwest NM. Strong heating and ample instability
will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 06/17/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 172005
SWODY1
SPC AC 172004

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms remain likely this afternoon into
tonight, with the peak threat centered over Illinois and Indiana.
Intense tornadoes, swaths of damaging gusts over 75 mph and damaging wind-driven large hail will all be possible.

...20z Update...
An extremely complicated forecast scenario will continue this
afternoon in the wake of a persistent morning convective cluster. An anomalously strong upper trough and jet are still forecast to move
over parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes this afternoon and
evening. This will support renewed convective development near the
trailing outflow from the morning cluster over the Midwest and along
the synoptic cold front from northeast MO into parts of KS and far
northern OK.

Rapid modification of the air mass along and north of the trailing
outflow boundary/effective warm front still appears plausible given
1-2 mb/hr pressure falls, ongoing low-level moisture advection and
strong heating ahead of the deepening surface cyclone. A focused
mesoscale corridor of strong to intense tornado potential remains
evident from east of St Louis, MO, across south-central IL and into west-central IN, where RAP soundings show 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and exceptionally strong low and mid-level shear with ESRH upwards
of 400-600 m2/s2. The primary uncertainty remains the development
and maintenance of supercells in the wake of the MCS. CAM guidance
remains insistent on a few intense supercells organizing in this
corridor from late afternoon into the evening with a risk for strong
tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. The threat may persist
into portions of eastern IN, KY and western OH tonight.

Across central MO into KS and OK, a very unstable and moderately
sheared air mass (18z TOP/SGF RAOBS) will promote rapid supercell
development in the next couple of hours along and ahead of the
sagging cold front. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes are possible. As large-scale forcing for ascent moves away
this evening, storm coverage should slowly diminish, though the more
intense supercells may linger well into the evening with an all
hazards risk.

Primary changes to the outlook were to remove northern portions of
the ENH and MDT risk areas where substantial air mass recovery is
unlikely. Wind probabilities were increased on the southern end near
the OH River to account for clustering of expected upstream
development.

Elsewhere, minor changes were made to trim probabilities behind the
cold front. See the previous discussion for additional information.

..Lyons.. 06/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026/

...MO/IL/IN...
An intense and fast-moving shortwave trough continues to approach
the Midwest today, with an associated 90+ knot mid level jet
streaking across the region. A very strong southerly low-level jet
precedes this trough, and has resulted in widespread thunderstorms
over central IL. The effects of this early convection will be
important to the mesoscale details of where the main risk of severe
storms will develop later today.

The primary outflow boundary from ongoing storms currently extends
from extreme northeast MO into south-central IL, and continues to
sag southward. Strong heating is occurring to the south of the
boundary, and given the intense low-level flow, some northward
return is expected. However, it appears unlikely to substantially
destabilize as far north as earlier forecasts. The zone in vicinity
of the boundary will become very unstable by mid-late afternoon,
with forecast soundings continuing to show impressive shear values
and hodograph structures suggestive of tornadic supercell potential.
Very large hail and damaging winds will also be possible with this
activity as it tracks quickly eastward into central IN. Strong
tornadoes are possible.

By mid-evening, a line of severe storms will likely extend from
central MO into southern IN, with damaging winds becoming the
primary threat.

...Southeast MN...
A small area of heating/destabilization has developed near the
surface low over southern MN. Cold temperatures aloft and strong
deep-layer shear suggests a threat of a few severe storms capable of
hail and gusty/damaging winds this afternoon.

...LA/MS...
Tropical Storm Arthur will track northward and affect LA and
southern MS tonight. A zone of strong southerly low-level winds to
the east of the circulation will result in some concern for
overnight and pre-dawn tornadoes across southeast LA into far
southern MS.

...Southern AZ/NM...
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected across
southeast AZ and southwest NM. Strong heating and ample instability
will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180112
SWODY1
SPC AC 180110

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A corridor of tornado, damaging hail and wind threat persists from south-central Illinois into Indiana this evening. A broader zone of
severe hail and wind extends from southeast Kansas into western
Ohio.

...IL...IN...MO...OH...
The greatest tornado threat corridor extends from south-central IL
into parts of central/southwest IN this evening, where air mass
recovery continues out of the southwest. Supercells in this region
have been tornadic at times, also producing large damaging hail.

Given the extreme shear downstream, and continued low-level
theta-advection, the environment remains conditionally favorable for
a couple strong tornadoes through this evening over a small portion
of IL and IN. The threat may extend as far east as western/central
OH later tonight, with tornado potential depending on instability.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 1171.

...Northern Gulf Coast...
A moist and unstable environment exists across LA and into southern
MS/AL ahead of Arthur. Low-level shear may increase further this
evening, with periodic mini-supercell potential and tornado risk.
For more information see mesoscale discussion 1172.

..Jewell.. 06/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180551
SWODY1
SPC AC 180549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC...OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or
marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New
York into New England, with damaging gusts or even a tornado. A few
tornadoes may occur over parts of the Gulf Coast states, and
scattered storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from
Oklahoma into northwest Texas.

...From KY into the Mid Atlantic...
Moderate mid to high level westerlies will exist from the OH Valley
to Mid Atlantic, south of the primary wave over the Northeast. This
region will be south of the midlevel drying, with ample low-level
moisture remaining in place ahead of the slower moving portion of
the front. Scattered storms may be ongoing early in the day from KY
into WV, with perhaps wind or even tornado potential as SRH will be
high at that time. As heating occurs during the day, boundary layer
mixing as well as veering and weakening winds at 850 mb may reduce
tornado risk. However, ample deep-layer shear and nearly
unidirectional wind profiles will favor both cells and fast-moving
clusters of storms producing damaging gusts and locally severe hail
throughout the day.

...Northeast...
Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave
trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with
a 90 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft moving across NY and
parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into
southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the
region.

Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints
into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm
profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth.
However, ample midlevel cooling will still support sufficient
destabilization. Strong deep-layer shear and backed surface winds
ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells
should develop over northern NY by 18Z, and will move quickly east,
producing marginal hail and sporadic damaging gusts initially. The
low EL height may mitigate hail production somewhat. By late
afternoon, a tornado or two will be possible as storms encounter a
stronger SRH environment farther east.

...Parts of MS/AL/GA/FL...
Wind fields associated with the remnants of Arthur will increase
from LA into GA today, as a weak surface low and midlevel wave move
across MS/AL/GA. This system will provide a focus for storms which
will spread northeast out of LA/MS into AL, the FL Panhandle, and
eventually into GA. Although temperatures aloft are warm, areas of
strong low-level shear and mid 70s F dewpoints will support
organized bands of storms, some with embedded stronger cells.
Transient supercells will be possible with localized tornado risk.
Storms are likely to be ongoing over southeast LA and southern MS at
the start of the period, and these will develop northeastward
throughout the day.

...OK into northwest TX...
An east-west oriented cold front will move southward across the TX
Panhandle, Oklahoma and northwest today, pushing well south of the
stronger westerlies aloft over the central Plains. The air mass
ahead of the front will feature 70s F dewpoints, while daytime
heating brings MUCAPE values into the 3000-4000 J/kg range. South of
this cold front, low pressure is forecast to develop over western TX
where the strongest heating will occur.

Isolated morning thunderstorms may be present from the KS/OK border
area eastward toward the Ozarks, and marginal hail cannot be ruled
out due to substantial elevated CAPE. Any storms that form near the
boundary as it moves south during the day may produce locally strong
gusts. The greatest risk of locally severe gusts or marginal hail
appears to be across southwest OK into northwest TX, where the front
will be more favorably timed with peak heating. Shear will be weak,
but extensive outflow is possible.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181303
SWODY1
SPC AC 181301

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from
Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with
primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe
storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with
damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also
occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast states, and scattered
storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into
western North Texas.

...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
The region will be influenced by lingering long-lived overnight-upscale-transitioning linear segments that moved across
Kentucky/West Virginia, that will likely continue to pose a severe
risk early today, mainly in the form of damaging winds. This may be
even as updraft/storm intensities somewhat trend downward over the
mountains. Even if weakening occurs early today east of the
Appalachians spine, residual outflow/differential heating and
potential MCV influences should help focus
redevelopment/re-intensification into the Piedmont later today, with
additional development westward toward the Cumberland Plateau along
the residual convective boundary as well as the
east/southeastward-advancing front. Moderate diurnal destabilization
aside, organized severe potential will be aided by seasonally strong
winds through the low/mid-troposphere, even with a tendency for
low-level winds to weaken into this afternoon.

...Northeast States...
Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave
trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with
a 90 kt mid-level speed max and cooling aloft moving across New York
and parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop
into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the
region.

Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints
into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm
profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth.
However, ample mid-level cooling will still support sufficient
destabilization and the development of intensifying low-topped
storms into the afternoon. Pronounced deep-layer/low-level shear and
backed surface winds ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped
supercells. Cells should develop/further increase over northern New
York through midday/early afternoon and will move quickly east.
Damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and hail will all be
possible, although smaller hail may be more likely given the low EL
heights.

...Gulf Coast including parts of LA/MS/AL/GA/FL...
Already strong mid/low-level winds across southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, associated with the remnants of Arthur, will
further increase and spread east-northeastward across Alabama and
Florida Panhandle toward Georgia, as a weak surface low and
mid-level wave spread northeast regionally. The strong low-level
shear and mid 70s F dewpoints will support organized bands of storms
with embedded stronger/rotating cells capable of a
northeastward-transitioning tornado risk today.

...Oklahoma/southern Kansas to western North Texas...
Isolated mostly elevated severe storms capable of hail will remain
possible early today across southeast Kansas and northern Oklahoma
and possibly southwest Missouri. These storms could linger today and
also pose some damaging wind risk. Additional deep convection may
develop into late afternoon/early evening within a very unstable
environment across western Oklahoma into western North Texas near
the southward-shifting front and surface low/dryline across Texas,
with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181617
SWODY1
SPC AC 181616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND...THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND FROM THE GULF COAST
STATE INTO THE CAROLINAS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from
Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with
primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe
storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with
damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also
occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast states, and scattered
storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from Oklahoma into
western North Texas.

...NY/New England...
A fast-moving low-topped squall line is tracking eastward across NY.
Low and mid level wind fields in this region are very strong,
contributing to occasional bowing structures and QLCS mesocyclones.
This activity will spread into VT/NH through the afternoon with a
continued risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Confidence
in severe storms farther south into southern New England is lower,
but at least isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are possible.

...KY into Mid Atlantic...
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends across KY
into southern VA. Strong heating along and south of the boundary
will likely result in renewed convection this afternoon, in a zone
of moderate westerly flow aloft and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A
few severe storms are expected in this corridor, with activity
moving into northern NC later today. Damaging winds are the main
risk.

...Gulf Coast into Carolinas...
The remnant circulation of Arthur is becoming more progressive with
time, and is accelerating eastward. As this occurs, the zone of
relatively strong southerly low-level winds will also shift across
AL into GA and eventually SC/NC tonight. Ample low-level moisture
and high theta-e values will coincide with the region of strong
shear, and CAM solutions suggest clusters of thunderstorms in this
area as well. This suggests at least some risk of damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes through the afternoon and night as the system
moves northeastward.

...TX/OK...
Scattered thunderstorms will occasional hail risk will slowly
diminish across northern OK this afternoon. Later today, new
thunderstorms are expected to develop in a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low near ABI/SJT. These slow-moving
storms will have some damaging wind and hail risk through the
evening.

..Hart/Chalmers.. 06/18/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181959
SWODY1
SPC AC 181958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...INTO NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely from
Kentucky and the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, with
primarily damaging wind gusts or marginal hail. Scattered severe
storms are possible from upstate New York into New England, with
damaging wind gusts and tornado potential. A few tornadoes may also
occur over parts of the middle Gulf Coast and southeast states, and
scattered storms may produce damaging winds or marginal hail from
Oklahoma into western North Texas.

...20z Update TX/OK...
Forecast confidence has increased late this afternoon into tonight
that one or more semi-organized clusters of thunderstorms will
develop and spread southeastward across parts of western North TX
with a risk for damaging gusts. Strong convergence near an
anomalously deep surface low and sagging cold front will support
numerous thunderstorms tonight. Despite marginal deep-layer shear
for organization, a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low will allow for strong cold pool development, potentially supporting severe outflow gusts. More
isolated damaging gusts and/or marginally severe hail remain
possible farther north into OK. Have upgraded wind probabilities to
15% and a categorical Level 2 Slight Risk for portions of western
North TX.

...Southeast...
Convection associated with the remnants of Arthur will persist
through tonight along a stalled frontal zone in the Southeast. While
clustering has resulted in more linear structures, enhanced flow
aloft and pockets of stronger low-level shear near the front may
still support occasional rotating updrafts, with the risk for a
couple of tornadoes or damaging gusts from eastern AL, into GA and
the western Carolinas through tonight. Have reduced maximum tornado probabilities, but will maintain a broad 5% for occasional supercell
structures along/near the front.

...New England...
The broken band of storms ahead of the cold front should continue
eastward and gradually weaken into this evening. Southern portions
of the line over MA, CT and RI may remain stronger given better
buoyancy, but storm coverage here should become more isolated with
time. Damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible.
Have trimmed probabilities behind the cold front where the risk has
decreased. No other changes were made, see the previous discussion
for more information.

..Lyons.. 06/18/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026/

...NY/New England...
A fast-moving low-topped squall line is tracking eastward across NY.
Low and mid level wind fields in this region are very strong,
contributing to occasional bowing structures and QLCS mesocyclones.
This activity will spread into VT/NH through the afternoon with a
continued risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Confidence
in severe storms farther south into southern New England is lower,
but at least isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are possible.

...KY into Mid Atlantic...
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends across KY
into southern VA. Strong heating along and south of the boundary
will likely result in renewed convection this afternoon, in a zone
of moderate westerly flow aloft and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. A
few severe storms are expected in this corridor, with activity
moving into northern NC later today. Damaging winds are the main
risk.

...Gulf Coast into Carolinas...
The remnant circulation of Arthur is becoming more progressive with
time, and is accelerating eastward. As this occurs, the zone of
relatively strong southerly low-level winds will also shift across
AL into GA and eventually SC/NC tonight. Ample low-level moisture
and high theta-e values will coincide with the region of strong
shear, and CAM solutions suggest clusters of thunderstorms in this
area as well. This suggests at least some risk of damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes through the afternoon and night as the system
moves northeastward.

...TX/OK...
Scattered thunderstorms will occasional hail risk will slowly
diminish across northern OK this afternoon. Later today, new
thunderstorms are expected to develop in a hot and very unstable air
mass in vicinity of the surface low near ABI/SJT. These slow-moving
storms will have some damaging wind and hail risk through the
evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190101
SWODY1
SPC AC 190059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated brief tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible from far
southern Alabama into the parts of the Florida Panhandle and across
much of Georgia. Scattered damaging winds are likely this evening
into tonight over much of north-central Texas.

...From far southern AL across GA and into SC...
A line of thunderstorms currently extends north-south across central
GA ahead of the midlevel wave. The environment is very moist and 0-1
SRH is over 250 m2/s2 at the JGX radar. Minimal CIN due to the high
PWAT air mass should thus continue to support QLCS tornado potential
as the line of storms moves across GA, and possibly into SC later
tonight.

Farther southwest, robust thunderstorms have developed near Mobile
and will move eastward across far southern AL and the northern and
western FL Panhandle. A very moist and unstable air mass resides
here as well, and stronger westerly flow and shear around the
southern periphery of the upper system will continue to support a
narrow corridor of brief tornado or damaging wind potential.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 1191.

...Much of north-central Texas...
Hot conditions exist across the Abilene to San Angelo area this
evening, with little CIN. The 00Z MAF sounding shows a deep mixed
layer and over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with a near 60 F dewpoint. Just east
of the low-level lapse rate plume, dewpoints are well into the 70s
F, with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE into central TX.

Storms are already beginning to form over west-central TX as a cold
front pushes south into the storm-ready air mass. Winds around 850
mb will also increase out of the southeast tonight, aiding unstable
inflow into a developing cluster of storms. Shear and steering
currents aloft are weak, but severe outflow is expected to affect
much of northwest into north-central TX later this evening into
tonight. A general southeastward propagation is most likely, into
the moist plume. Conditions appear favorable for damaging winds, and
localized significant wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Given such
high instability, some of the stronger storms may briefly produce
hail.

..Jewell.. 06/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190455
SWODY1
SPC AC 190453

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the
Upper Midwest and parts of the central Plains. Additional strong
thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts from north
Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of the Gulf Coast states
and into the coastal Carolinas.

...MN into WI...
An upper low will be situated over northern Manitoba, with a broad
fetch of moderate northwest flow aloft across the northern Rockies
and Plains. A progressive embedded wave is forecast to move across
the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley through 00Z, with weak
low pressure into northern MN. Strong surface heating along with 50s
F dewpoints and convergence near a cold front will lead to scattered
storms across much of MN and northern WI. Forecast soundings show
cold profiles aloft over northern areas, though shear will be
weaker. Shear will be stronger over southern MN, but instability
will not be as favorable. Either way, cells capable of hail appear
most likely given the cool profiles aloft. A few cells may become
severe with hail over 1.00".

...From eastern TX into the Southeast...
Early day rain and storms may be ongoing over northern TX into OK,
with possible outflow into central TX. A potential midlevel wave
associated with the OK/TX storms may provide a focus for additional
development as it proceeds east/southeast, interacting with a very
moist air mass with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints. Shear will be
weak, but ample PWAT and CAPE may result in locally damaging winds.

Farther east into the Carolinas, a leading wave will move across
that area early in the day as well. Shear profiles may be enhanced
ahead of this feature, with a low probability of a brief tornado and
damaging gusts before the system moves offshore.

Strong instability will also develop over the FL Peninsula, with
numerous storms expected over central and eastern portions. Midlevel
lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/km, PWAT over 2.00" and daytime heating
will lead to robust storms capable of locally damaging downbursts.

...Central Plains...
Beneath modest northwest flow aloft, low pressure will develop over
southeast CO, with southeasterly surface winds across the central
Plains. This will aid moisture advection with 50s to perhaps near 60
F dewpoints across KS, eastern CO and into NE. It is questionable if
any storms develop during the day as the boundary layer may be cool,
but the influence of the upper trough over the northern Plains may
yield a few elevated storms. Then overnight, additional warm
advection above the surface may support isolated development. Hail
would be the primary risk.

..Jewell/Squitieri.. 06/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191245
SWODY1
SPC AC 191244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND
SIERRA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and
hail today across parts of the the Upper Midwest and central Plains.
Other strong thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging winds
from north Texas/southern Oklahoma into portions of the Southeast,
and separately across parts of the Sierra into the northern Great
Basin.

...Texas into the Southeast/Carolinas...
An expansive area of convection has developed this morning across
north-central TX/southern OK, aided by modest low-level warm
advection and a weak mid-level disturbance. Both low-level and
deep-layer shear remain weak across this region (generally less than
20-25 kt), which should tend to limit updraft organization and
overall thunderstorm severity through the rest of the morning. But,
a very moist airmass and substantial reservoir of instability are
present ahead of this ongoing convection and south of a surface cold
front extending across TX into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley.

Current expectations are for an isolated severe/damaging wind threat
to persist downstream into the afternoon across these areas as the
moist airmass undergoes additional destabilization with daytime
heating. Considered including higher wind probabilities, but
confidence in a more organized/severe MCS remains low owing to the
weak deep-layer shear. Additional thunderstorms have also formed
south into central/south-central TX this morning. This activity may
also pose some risk for severe winds with the stronger cores as it
develops east-southeastward through the day, even though shear and
overall updraft organization will remain modest.

The Marginal Risk extending into the Southeast/eastern Carolinas has
been generally adjusted southward to account for the position of the
cold front, and expectations that the isolated damaging wind risk
will likely remain confined along/south of this boundary. Stronger low/mid-level flow associated with the remnants of Arthur over the
eastern Carolinas this morning is forecast to quickly shift offshore
through the day. An isolated severe wind and brief tornado threat
may exist along/ahead of ongoing precipitation across this region,
although instability will remain limited.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop this
afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula, with a preferential
focus along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze given modest westerly flow
aloft. While low/mid-level winds and related shear are expected to
remain weak, the strongest cores could still become capable of
producing occasional damaging winds as low-level lapse rates steepen
with daytime heating.

...Upper Midwest...
An upper low will remain over northern Manitoba/Ontario today, with
a broad fetch of moderate northwest flow aloft across the northern Rockies/Plains. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley by this
evening, with weak surface low pressure into northern MN. Strong
surface heating along with generally 50s surface dewpoints and
convergence near a cold front will lead to scattered storms across
much of MN and western WI. Forecast soundings show cold profiles
aloft over northern areas, though effective bulk shear will be
somewhat weaker with northward extent. Deep-layer shear will be
stronger over southern MN, but instability will not be as favorable
farther south. Even so, cells that develop this afternoon and
evening and track southeastward may be capable of producing severe
hail given the cool mid-level temperatures. Occasional
severe/damaging winds may also occur.

...Central Plains...
Beneath modest northwest flow aloft, surface low pressure will
develop over southeast CO today, with southeasterly low-level winds
across the central Plains. This will aid modest low-level warm/moist
advection, with 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints across KS,
eastern CO, and southern NE. It remains uncertain if any
thunderstorms will develop later today across this region, but the
influence of the upper trough over the northern Plains may yield a
few elevated cells. Additional warm/moist advection this
evening/overnight may also support isolated convective development.
Hail appears to be the primary risk, with moderate
instability/deep-layer shear and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse
rates potentially supporting supercells. However, confidence in
sustained convection remains too low to include greater severe
probabilities.

...Sierra/Northern Great Basin...
As a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances inland from the
eastern Pacific, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms
should develop later today across parts of the northern Sierra
Mountains into adjacent portions of the Great Basin. While low-level
moisture will remain limited, a very deeply mixed boundary layer and
some mid-level moisture/cooling aloft ahead of the shortwave trough
should support weak instability and thunderstorm potential. This
activity could become strong given some deep-layer shear, with
isolated severe gusts/outflow possible.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191605
SWODY1
SPC AC 191604

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
today across parts of the Upper Midwest, central Plains, from Texas
into portions of the Southeast, and across parts of the Sierra into
the northern Great Basin.

...MN/WI...
A fast moving shortwave trough over ND will track southeastward into
the upper Midwest today. 12z model guidance is in general agreement
that a pocket of modest CAPE will develop this afternoon over
central MN in a region of broken clouds and rapidly cooling
mid-level temperatures. This will likely lead to scattered
thunderstorm development, with storms tracking into western WI
before weakening this evening. Forecast soundings show steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. Given the
strong large scale ascent, a few relatively low-topped supercells
are possible with large hail being the main risk. A small SLGT risk
has been added for this scenario.

...East TX into the Southeast...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today
across much of east TX and LA into southern MS/AL/GA and north FL.
Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and strong heating will lead to
MLCAPE values of over 3000 J/kg across much of this broad area.
This will lead to diurnally driven thunderstorms later today into
this evening. Steering flow and vertical shear are weak across the
region, suggesting slow-moving and rather disorganized convection. Nevertheless, the strongest cells will pose a risk of water-loaded
downdrafts and occasionally gusty/damaging winds.

...Eastern NC...
A remnant tropical circulation is moving across NC and will be
offshore by mid-afternoon. Until then, an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out in the stronger-sheared environment across the Outer
Banks region. Refer to MD #1197 for further details.

...KS/NE/CO/NM...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in a zone of
low-level warm advection over southwest NE and track into northern
KS. Steep lapse rates and sufficient shear for rotating storms
could pose a risk of large hail in the strongest cores. Other more
widely scattered convection will develop southward into eastern
CO/western KS/northeast NM, where gusty/damaging wind gusts are
possible.

...NV...
A very deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon over
much of northern NV/northeast CA, along with enough CAPE for
high-based thunderstorms. Strong mid/high-level winds and favorable thermodynamic profiles could result in a few storms capable of
damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Moore.. 06/19/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191959
SWODY1
SPC AC 191958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
today across parts of the Upper Midwest, central Plains, from Texas
into portions of the Southeast, and across parts of the Sierra into
the northern Great Basin.

...20z Update MN/WI...
Severe potential remains evident this afternoon and evening across
the upper MS Valley. Despite modest buoyancy, anomalously strong
deep-layer flow and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
splitting supercell structures across parts of MN and WI. This will
support a risk for hail and damaging gusts with the strongest
storms. Have adjusted the 15% hail probabilities further north for
the latest radar trends. See MCD#1200 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#355 for additional details.

...NC/VA...
The circulation associated with remnants of former TC Arthur have
moved offshore and severe potential has decreased. Severe
probabilities were removed.

...Southeast...
A broad area of thunderstorms is ongoing along a diffuse frontal
zone from east TX across the Gulf Coast States. Occasional
downbursts remain possible with stronger multicell clusters through
this evening, given large buoyancy and the high PWAT air mass.
Vertical shear is minimal and broader storm organization is not
expected. Have adjusted the 5% wind probabilities slightly to better
capture ongoing storms. No other changes were made to the outlook.
See the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 06/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026/

...MN/WI...
A fast moving shortwave trough over ND will track southeastward into
the upper Midwest today. 12z model guidance is in general agreement
that a pocket of modest CAPE will develop this afternoon over
central MN in a region of broken clouds and rapidly cooling
mid-level temperatures. This will likely lead to scattered
thunderstorm development, with storms tracking into western WI
before weakening this evening. Forecast soundings show steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. Given the
strong large scale ascent, a few relatively low-topped supercells
are possible with large hail being the main risk. A small SLGT risk
has been added for this scenario.

...East TX into the Southeast...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today
across much of east TX and LA into southern MS/AL/GA and north FL.
Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and strong heating will lead to
MLCAPE values of over 3000 J/kg across much of this broad area.
This will lead to diurnally driven thunderstorms later today into
this evening. Steering flow and vertical shear are weak across the
region, suggesting slow-moving and rather disorganized convection. Nevertheless, the strongest cells will pose a risk of water-loaded
downdrafts and occasionally gusty/damaging winds.

...Eastern NC...
A remnant tropical circulation is moving across NC and will be
offshore by mid-afternoon. Until then, an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out in the stronger-sheared environment across the Outer
Banks region. Refer to MD #1197 for further details.

...KS/NE/CO/NM...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in a zone of
low-level warm advection over southwest NE and track into northern
KS. Steep lapse rates and sufficient shear for rotating storms
could pose a risk of large hail in the strongest cores. Other more
widely scattered convection will develop southward into eastern
CO/western KS/northeast NM, where gusty/damaging wind gusts are
possible.

...NV...
A very deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon over
much of northern NV/northeast CA, along with enough CAPE for
high-based thunderstorms. Strong mid/high-level winds and favorable thermodynamic profiles could result in a few storms capable of
damaging wind gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200057
SWODY1
SPC AC 200056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI...EASTERN NM/CO...KS...SOUTHWEST
NE...AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NV...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and
hail tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern/central
High Plains. Storms with localized severe gusts also remain possible
across parts of northern Nevada and southeast Kansas.

...Southeast MN into WI...
Scattered strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening
from parts of southeast MN into northwest WI. The regional
environment is characterized by modest buoyancy (with MLCAPE of
around 500 J/kg), but favorable deep-layer shear. A midlevel
shortwave trough moving across MN will help to sustain convection
through the evening, though a gradual weakening of already modest
buoyancy will tend to diminish the severe threat with time.
Localized hail and strong/damaging gusts remain possible with the
strongest ongoing cells before storms weaken later this evening.

...Parts of south-central/southeast KS...
A small thunderstorm cluster has recently intensified north of
Wichita, with reports of localized strong to severe gusts. This
cluster may continue southeastward with a threat of localized severe
gusts through dusk. See MCD 1207 for more information.

...Parts of NV...
Inverted-V profiles (as observed in the 00Z LKN sounding) will
continue to support a threat of isolated severe gusts with
high-based convection that will move across northwest/north-central
NV into this evening. Some threat may reach the NV/OR/ID border
region before nocturnal stabilization results in a general weakening
trend.

...Parts of eastern NM/CO into northwest KS/southwest NE...
A thunderstorm cluster over east-central NM may continue to pose a
threat of isolated hail and severe gusts early this evening, within
an environment characterized by MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg and
modestly favorable deep-layer shear. Nocturnal cooling/stabilization
should result in a weakening trend with time.

Guidance continues to vary regarding potential for robust storm
development across eastern CO through the evening. Forcing is
generally weak, but MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer
shear will conditionally support organized convection, if any storms
can be sustained.

Later tonight, elevated convection may develop across parts of
northwest KS/southwest NE, within a modest low-level warm advection
regime. Guidance remains in poor agreement regarding the coverage
(if any) and intensity of storms within this regime, but moderate
elevated buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a
threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts.

...Parts of the Southeast...
Localized strong storms persist this evening across parts of the
Southeast, within a very moist (PW greater than 2 inches)
environment. Localized damaging gusts may accompany the strongest
storms through sunset, but weak deep-layer shear and the effects of
extensive convective overturning are expected to limit organized
severe potential.

..Dean.. 06/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200552
SWODY1
SPC AC 200550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central
Plains vicinity this afternoon and evening. Large to very large
hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.

...Central Plains...
A low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Intermountain West toward the central/northern High Plains through
the period. In response to this system, a lee cyclone is forecast to
deepen across eastern CO. A surface front initially draped from
eastern CO into KS will move northward through the day, with its
northward extent influenced by morning elevated convection that may
persist through much of the day across parts of central NE. Rich
low-level moisture will return in tandem with the front, with
low/mid 60s F dewpoints reaching into parts of southern NE and
northeast CO, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints spreading into
parts of central/southeast KS.

Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates spreading atop the returning
moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization, as
MLCAPE increases to near/above 2000 J/kg across parts of the central
High Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon from southeast WY and the NE Panhandle into eastern CO,
with at least isolated storms possible farther east, along and just
north of the surface front. Veering wind profiles and effective
shear of 40+ kt will be favorable for organized storms, including
supercells.

A threat for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts
will accompany initial supercell development. Some tornado threat
could also evolve, especially with any supercells near the front
that move into an environment of richer moisture and stronger
low-level shear (associated with a modest nocturnal low-level jet)
during the evening. A tendency toward upscale growth is expected
with time along and north of the surface front, resulting in an
increasing severe-wind threat, with gusts above 75 mph possible.
Some damaging-wind and brief-tornado threat could continue through
the end of the period into east-central/southeast KS, where MLCINH
will remain minimal due to very rich low-level moisture.

Only minor adjustments have been made to the Enhanced Risk, though
more substantial changes may eventually be needed, depending on the
influence of early-day convection across parts of the threat area.

...Northern UT/southeast ID into western/central WY...
As a mid/upper-level shortwave trough overspreads the region during
the afternoon, scattered high-based thunderstorm development is
expected from northeast UT/southeast ID into western WY. Isolated
downbursts will be possible with initial development, and some
outflow aggregation could result in localized strong to severe wind
swaths from late afternoon into early evening, as convection spreads
eastward.

...Parts of TX into the Southeast and Florida...
Scattered to widespread convection is again expected within a very
moist (PW near/above 2 inches) environment from central/eastern TX
into parts of the Southeast and Florida. Localized wet microbursts
will again be possible, though deep-layer shear will generally be
weak. Organized severe potential appears too nebulous to add wind
probabilities at this time. A Level-1/Marginal Risk may eventually
be needed for parts of the region, if trends support any mesoscale
corridors of somewhat more organized threat.

...Western PA...
Relatively low-topped convection may develop across parts of western
PA and vicinity this afternoon, within a broad west-northwesterly
flow regime. Buoyancy will remain weak, but modestly enhanced flow
and steep low-level lapse rates could support localized strong
gusts. The magnitude of the threat appears too limited for wind
probabilities at this time.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201248
SWODY1
SPC AC 201246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains
mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe
winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Central Plains...
Recent surface observations show a front extending from the central
High Plains of eastern CO into KS, and continuing east-northeastward
into the mid MS Valley/Upper Midwest. Isolated/elevated
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning to the north of the front
across parts of central NE into north-central KS, likely aided by
weak low-level warm advection over the southern/central Plains.
While isolated hail may occur in the short-term with this activity
given weak MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer,
current expectations are for a more robust severe threat to develop
across the central Plains later this afternoon and evening.

Initially high-based thunderstorms will likely form by early to mid
afternoon along/east of the higher terrain of eastern CO/southeast
WY in a weak low-level upslope flow regime, and as modest
large-scale ascent preceding an eastward-moving shortwave trough
overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. Greater low-level
moisture (60s surface dewpoints) will be in place with eastward
extent across KS/NE, and these thunderstorms should gradually
strengthen as they move eastward. Deep-layer shear appears strong
enough to support supercells with an attendant threat for large
hail, with steep mid-level lapse rates and ample instability in the
hail-growth zone possibly supporting isolated very large hail (2+
inches).

While exact details of subsequent convective evolution remain
somewhat unclear, these initial supercells will probably tend to
interact/grow upscale in some form along and near the surface front
from late afternoon through the evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens over the central High Plains. An increasing threat for
at least scattered severe/damaging winds should be realized as one
or more bowing clusters spreads east-southeastward across NE/KS.
Isolated significant gusts (75+ mph) may occur with the more intense
portions of these clusters. Some risk for a few tornadoes should
also exist, mainly late this afternoon into the evening with either
persistent supercells or embedded within clusters as 0-1 km SRH
increases in tandem with the low-level jet. A severe wind threat may
continue through the overnight hours farther east across KS and
perhaps into parts of western MO.

...Northern Utah/Eastern Idaho into Western/Central Wyoming...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin this
morning will continue to move eastward across the northern/central
Rockies today. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain
limited along/west of the higher terrain, steepened low/mid-level
lapse rates will exist with a very well-mixed boundary layer this
afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will support
east-northeastward developing convection through the
afternoon/evening across parts of northern UT/eastern ID into
western/central WY. This activity may pose a threat for occasional
strong to severe winds, but the overall severe threat should tend to
remain isolated due to the weak instability forecast.

...Gulf Coast/Southeast...
Modest flow aloft (generally 25 kt or less) will exist today across
much of the Gulf Coast/Southeast, as a mid-level anticyclone remains
anchored over the Gulf. A very moist low-level airmass, with surface
dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s, exists along/south of
convection ongoing from parts of coastal/east TX into the lower MS
Valley. Given the weak mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear,
overall thunderstorm organization and intensity should remain fairly
limited. Even so, occasional damaging winds could occur as the
loosely organized cluster spreads east-southeastward into a
destabilizing airmass across the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast
states through the afternoon.

...Western Pennsylvania...
Within west-northwesterly mid-level flow, low-topped thunderstorms
should develop/move across parts of western PA and vicinity this
afternoon. Instability will remain weak, but modestly enhanced flow
and steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong gusts
from convective downdrafts. The overall magnitude of the threat
still appears too limited for low severe wind probabilities.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201610
SWODY1
SPC AC 201609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central Plains
mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe
winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Central Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over ID/UT tracking
eastward toward the central High Plains. Southerly/southeasterly
low-level winds ahead of this feature over parts of eastern
CO/western NE/KS will help to maintain a moist and moderately
unstable air mass across the region, especially as low clouds
continue to burn off and afternoon heating commences. Scattered
thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon over central
WY down into central CO in favored terrain/convergence areas. This
activity will spread eastward into a progressively more
moist/unstable air mass and intensify into supercells. A corridor
of favorable vertical shear will develop later today from northeast
CO into southwest NE/northwest KS for isolated tornadoes.
Otherwise, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main
concerns. Activity is likely to organize upscale during the evening
and spread across KS with a damaging wind risk persisting much of
the night.

...Southeast...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present again today
over much of the southeast US. Most CAM solutions suggest scattered
afternoon thunderstorms across this area, including along the FL
east coast. Dewpoints in the 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches,
coupled with strong daytime heating and steep low-level lapse rates
suggest a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the most
intense cores.

..Hart/Moore.. 06/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201959
SWODY1
SPC AC 201957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the central
Plains mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail,
severe winds (some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.

...20z Update WY/NE/CO/KS...
Scattered severe storms are likely over much of the central High
Plains this afternoon and evening. Incipient convection is
developing over the higher terrain/foothills and should spread
eastward into a moist and destabilizing air mass. Aided by strong
ascent from an upper trough and mid-level jet (observed via 18z
RAOBs), supercells and organized clusters remain likely. All hazards
are expected, with a focus for a few more persistent supercells and
a strong tornado or two along a notable differential heating axis in southwestern NE. With time upscale growth into and MCS is likely
tonight with a risk for damaging winds into the central Plains.
Minor adjustments were made to the probabilities for the latest
observed trends. For short term information see MCD #1212.

...Great Basin...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed over parts of NV and southern
ID along a diffuse frontal zone. While moisture is limited, enough
instability beneath the passing upper trough will support the
potential for a few severe gusts. 5% wind probabilities were
extended westward. See MCD #1213 for more info.

...Southeast...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms continue across much of the
Gulf Coast and Southeast States this afternoon. Sporadic damaging
gusts remain possible with the stronger clusters across northern FL
and southern LA. Weak shear will preclude much if any storm
organization. 5% wind probabilities were adjusted to better match
damaging wind potential.

..Lyons.. 06/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026/

...Central Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over ID/UT tracking
eastward toward the central High Plains. Southerly/southeasterly
low-level winds ahead of this feature over parts of eastern
CO/western NE/KS will help to maintain a moist and moderately
unstable air mass across the region, especially as low clouds
continue to burn off and afternoon heating commences. Scattered
thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon over central
WY down into central CO in favored terrain/convergence areas. This
activity will spread eastward into a progressively more
moist/unstable air mass and intensify into supercells. A corridor
of favorable vertical shear will develop later today from northeast
CO into southwest NE/northwest KS for isolated tornadoes.
Otherwise, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main
concerns. Activity is likely to organize upscale during the evening
and spread across KS with a damaging wind risk persisting much of
the night.

...Southeast...
A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present again today
over much of the southeast US. Most CAM solutions suggest scattered
afternoon thunderstorms across this area, including along the FL
east coast. Dewpoints in the 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches,
coupled with strong daytime heating and steep low-level lapse rates
suggest a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the most
intense cores.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210101
SWODY1
SPC AC 210059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the central
Plains this evening into late tonight. Large hail, severe winds
(some 75+ mph), and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Central Plains...
An intense supercell cluster over northwest KS is expected to grow
at least modestly upscale with time this evening, and spread
east-southeastward across parts of northern/central KS, while more
isolated supercells may evolve across southwest KS and move toward south-central KS through at least dusk. MLCAPE of near/above 2000
J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt will continue to support
organized storms with large hail (potentially 2+ inches in diameter
with any sustained supercells), severe wind gusts (possibly 75+
mph), and some tornado potential, especially with storms that
persist into richer low-level moisture across central/eastern KS.
Storm evolution remains somewhat uncertain overnight into eastern KS
and western MO, but a storm cluster and possible MCS may continue
through the end of the period, with severe-wind potential, and some
hail and tornado threat with any embedded supercells.

Farther northeast, elevated supercells may continue to pose a threat
of hail and isolated strong to severe gusts from southeast NE into
northeast KS through dusk. See MCD 1215 for more information.

To the west, a cluster of storms with a history of measured severe
gusts is moving into parts of southwest SD and the NE Panhandle.
Increasing CINH with time and eastward extent should result in a
gradual weakening trend, though some severe threat will remain
possible into mid/late evening across the NE Sand Hills region. See
MCD 1218 for more information.

Some threat for isolated supercells may persist farther south into
northeast CO through dusk, with a threat of hail. Other remnant
high-based convection may pose a threat of localized severe gusts
through dusk across parts of western/central WY.

..Dean.. 06/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210556
SWODY1
SPC AC 210554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the
Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large
hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some
strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening.

...Parts of MO into the Ohio Valley...
An all-hazards severe threat, including some conditional
strong-tornado potential, is still evident from parts of MO into the
Ohio Valley later today, though uncertainty remains regarding the
magnitude and most favored corridor of the greatest threat. No
upgrade was made with this outlook, though greater tornado and/or
wind probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on how the
uncertainties are resolved.

Guidance generally suggests that an MCV currently evolving across KS
will move across central/northern MO through the morning, before
moving into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the
afternoon. In association with the MCV, a surface low may deepen
along a front and move across parts of central MO/IL. Guidance
varies regarding the strength of the surface low, enhancement to
low-level shear/SRH, and magnitude of destabilization in advance of
the MCV. However, in general, rich moisture and enlarged low-level
hodographs will support development of a storm cluster with embedded
supercells and/or mesovortices, if sufficient diurnal
destabilization occurs. Tornadoes and damaging winds could accompany
any organized cells/clusters. Strong-tornado potential could evolve
if any supercells can be sustained within this regime.

In the wake of the MCV, relatively strong heating will support at
least moderate destabilization along the trailing front across parts
of central/southern MO. While some weakening/veering of low-level
flow is expected after the passage of the MCV, deep-layer shear will
remain sufficient for organized development along the boundary,
which could pose an all-hazards severe threat from late afternoon
into the evening from south-central MO into the lower OH Valley.

...Central High Plains into the Ozarks...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over WY will move
toward KS/NE later today. A 35-50 kt midlevel jet maximum attendant
to this shortwave will impinge upon parts of the central and
southern High Plains. An outflow-influenced front will likely extend
across parts of southern KS, with moist easterly flow expected north
of this boundary by late afternoon, while strong heating will occur
south of the boundary. Scattered afternoon storm development is
expected within the post-frontal regime from southeast WY/northeast
CO into western NE/KS. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer
shear will support supercell development, with a threat of large to
very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.

Widely scattered afternoon storm development will also be possible
in the vicinity of the surface front, from northwest OK into
southeast KS/southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and
sufficient deep-layer shear will support supercell development with
initial storms along the front, with some clustering possible later
in the convective evolution. Large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and some tornado potential could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms.

Late tonight into early Monday morning, guidance generally suggests
development of one or more upscale growing clusters, evolving from
either diurnal convection, or nocturnal elevated redevelopment.
Swaths of strong to severe gusts could accompany any upscale growth,
though guidance varies considerably regarding the most favorable
corridors late in the forecast period.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211242
SWODY1
SPC AC 211240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
An MCS with a convectively augmented parent MCV extends from parts
of central MO into southeast KS/northern OK this morning. The
airmass downstream of this MCS across MO is not particularly
unstable, but greater low-level moisture and related instability is
present across northeast OK and vicinity. Current expectations are
for the MCS/MCV to continue eastward across the mid MS Valley and
Ozarks through the morning while posing an isolated threat for
severe/damaging winds. With time, some re-invigoration of the MCS
appears possible into the lower OH Valley as destabilization occurs
with daytime heating. Trailing outflow from the morning convection
will serve as a focus for additional thunderstorms later today as a compact/enhanced low-level jet moves eastward from the Ozarks into
the mid MS/lower OH Valleys.

There still appears to be potential for more robust thunderstorm
development this afternoon across these areas along and south of the
outflow boundary/front. Moderate instability will likely develop in
the presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be
sufficient to support supercells. Enhanced low-level shear will also
be present owing to the eastward-migrating low-level jet. This will
foster a risk for tornadoes with any sustained supercells, and a
strong tornado appears possible. Considered greater tornado
probabilities and a categorical upgrade in a narrow corridor across
parts of MO/IL/IN, but there remains too much uncertainty regarding
sufficient destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. The severe/damaging wind threat will also increase, with the potential
for multiple clusters to form and track eastward into the lower OH
Valley through the evening and early overnight hours.

Convective development should also occur farther west along/near the
composite outflow boundary/front across the Ozarks into southern
KS/northern OK by peak afternoon heating. Strong instability and
moderate deep-layer shear will likely support updraft organization
and a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Large to very large
hail should be the primary threat initially, but deep-layer shear
vectors aligned largely parallel to the boundary should foster
convective mergers and an increasing threat for severe/damaging
winds with multiple clusters that should form and spread
east-southeastward across OK and the Ozarks through the evening. At
least an isolated severe wind threat may persist overnight with
southward extent across the southern Plains into AR given the large
degree of buoyancy forecast.

A mid-level shortwave trough over WY this morning will move
east-southeastward towards the central High Plains by this
afternoon. Enhanced westerly flow aloft attendant to this shortwave
trough will overspread the central High Plains through the day. A
convectively reinforced front extends from northwest OK into the
central High Plains, and modest low-level upslope flow is forecast
to the north of this boundary today. Recent short-term guidance
continues to suggest that moderate instability will develop with
filtered daytime heating in the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong effective bulk shear. Isolated supercells that can
develop in this regime across eastern CO into western NE/KS should
pose mainly a large to isolated very large (2+ inches) hail risk
initially, before some clustering/upscale growth possibly occurs
this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds would become an
increasing concern if this mode transition occurs, and isolated
significant gusts (75+ mph) appear possible.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211612
SWODY1
SPC AC 211610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.

...MO/IL/IN/KY...
A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from
east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is
tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where
dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are
contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests
that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track
eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level
shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases
uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing
structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the
event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm
segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe
as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD
#1228 for further short-term details.

...MO/KS/OK/AR...
In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary
extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring
north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates
will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly
southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will
promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and
damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur.

...NE/CO/KS...
Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into
eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should
occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the
region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms.
Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking
southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening.

..Hart/Moore.. 06/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211959
SWODY1
SPC AC 211957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Illinois,
and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.

...20z Update Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook given the latest
observational trends. Several clusters of strong thunderstorms are
ongoing ahead of an MCV across the mid MS Valley. An observed messy
convective mode should persist with a mix of bowing structures and
transient supercells likely ahead of the MCV, and near the effective
warm front from eastern IL into IN. Additional storm development is
also possible behind the MCV along the remnant boundary into MO and
eastern KS. This will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps
a couple of tornadoes where low-level flow is backed and hodographs
are larger. Eventually upscale growth into one or more bowing
clusters is likely later this evening/overnight into the OH valley
with a continued risk for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes.

...KS/OK this evening/tonight...
Severe storm development appears probable along the modified
trailing outflow across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon
into this evening. Sufficient vertical shear exists for supercells
and organized clusters. With large buoyancy and steep low/mid-level
lapse rates, large hail is likely with these strong updrafts. A
brief tornado or two is also possible, owing to storm interactions
and ambient vertical vorticity along the outflow boundary.

Damaging wind potential will likely increase with storm
consolidation, though the more cellular initial mode suggests this
maybe somewhat gradual. These storms, and additional convection
originating further north from the central High Plains, should
persist overnight into central and southern OK, reaching the Red
River Valley by 12z tomorrow morning with isolated severe potential.

..Lyons.. 06/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/

...MO/IL/IN/KY...
A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from
east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is
tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where
dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are
contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests
that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track
eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level
shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases
uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing
structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the
event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm
segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe
as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD
#1228 for further short-term details.

...MO/KS/OK/AR...
In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary
extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring
north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates
will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly
southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will
promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and
damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur.

...NE/CO/KS...
Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into
eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should
occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the
region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms.
Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking
southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220114
SWODY1
SPC AC 220112

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds remain possible this
evening into parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. A swath of
severe gusts (possibly greater than 75 mph) appears possible later
tonight from southwest Kansas into central Oklahoma.

...Mid MS Valley into the Ohio Valley...
An MCV moving across IN will eventually encounter weaker low-level
moisture and instability with eastward extent. However, a long-lived
storm cluster may continue eastward toward parts of southwest OH and
eastern KY, before a definitive weakening trend occurs. Damaging
wind and embedded tornadoes will remain possible with the primary
storm cluster until weakening occurs. Semi-discrete cells and small
clusters trailing the MCV will also continue to pose a threat of
tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds through the evening,
within a moist and favorably sheared environment. See MCD 1237 for
more information.

...Central High Plains into OK and southern MO...
Widely scattered storm development is underway near a surface
boundary draped from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO.
While large-scale forcing is generally modest at best, MLCAPE of
2500-4000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt are conditionally quite
favorable for organized storms. A few supercells may persist along
the front through the evening, with a threat of large to very large
hail and localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is weak,
vorticity and backed surface winds near the boundary could support
some tornado potential, if a robust supercell can become
established.

Farther northwest, a supercell cluster is ongoing across western KS
this evening. This cluster will continue to pose a threat of large
to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado through the
evening. See MCD 1239 for more information regarding the short-term
threat.

Short-term guidance (notably the HRRR and RRFS) suggests that this
cluster will continue to grow upscale, and potentially evolve into
an MCS that will move southeastward across southwest KS into
northwest and central OK, with threat of severe gusts (potentially
above 75 mph) through the overnight hours. This evolution appears
plausible, if evening convection across northwest OK is not too
disruptive to the environment. Given the very favorable midlevel
lapse rates on the 00Z DDC and OUN soundings, rich moisture, and
strong instability and deep-layer shear, a 30%/CIG1 wind area was
added from southwest KS into central OK.

..Dean.. 06/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220600
SWODY1
SPC AC 220558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening.
Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and
central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South...
A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent
MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance
suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some
flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the
wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and
central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is
expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately
unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into
forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds
through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection
intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic,
locally backed flow may support development of at least transient
supercells, with some tornado potential.

Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS
over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South
region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very
warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is
expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV
along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with
the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the
strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV,
but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon
into early evening.

...Central/northern High Plains...
Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a
relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential
for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe
gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot
be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not
depict organized MCS development at this time.

...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region...
The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of
the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe
threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period,
though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning.
Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow
into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late
tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this
redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to
limit a more organized severe threat.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221240
SWODY1
SPC AC 221238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur mainly this afternoon
and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main
threat.

...ArkLaTex into the Mid-South and Southeast...
A weakened but persistent MCS continues this morning across AR into
northeast TX. This cluster will track east-southeastward towards the
lower MS Valley over the next few hours while gradually weakening.
But, it should still pose some risk for isolated to widely scattered
damaging winds in the short term. The convectively augmented MCV
attendant to the ongoing MCS will also move east-northeastward
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/central Gulf Coast states
through the day. Gradual destabilization of a rather moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s) should
occur, even with widespread cloudiness hampering daytime heating to
some extent. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow associated
with the MCV and broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.
Multiple clusters and perhaps marginal supercells capable of
producing mainly scattered damaging winds should develop along/south
of a front this afternoon, and spread eastward across much of the
Southeast through at least the early evening. A tornado or two may
also occur in close proximity to the MCV track, but low-level flow
is forecast to be fairly veered and modest.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the OH
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Recent visible satellite imagery shows
fairly expansive cloud cover over much of the northern Mid-Atlantic,
with clearer skies farther south into southern VA and vicinity. 12Z
observed soundings across this region show poor lapse rates aloft,
which should hamper any more than weak instability developing this
afternoon, even with filtered daytime heating. Still, strengthening
mid-level westerly winds and large-scale ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will likely encourage scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of
the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. These multicell
clusters should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as
they spread east-northeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through
the afternoon and evening. Marginal hail may occur with the
strongest cores. A couple of tornadoes appear possible along/near a
sharpening warm front in the MD/PA/NJ/DE vicinity, where low-level
shear may become locally enhanced.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Within a generally zonal mid-level pattern, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains in a modest
low-level upslope flow regime. Moderate instability will be aided by
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will easily support supercells with an attendant
threat for large to very large hail. These supercells may be fairly
widely spaced, but will likely track south-southeastward through at
least the early evening before weakening. A couple of tornadoes may
occur with these supercells, particularly across parts of the NE
Panhandle into northeast CO, where the best combination of low-level
moisture, effective SRH, and favorable convective mode should
overlap for a few hours. Latest short-term guidance continues to
show low potential for upscale growth/MCS development tonight, but
trends will be monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 06/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221621
SWODY1
SPC AC 221620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and
evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main
threat.

...Mid Atlantic...
Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident
over OH/MI. As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface
cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Considerable clouds are present ahead of the
front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and
confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later
today. However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to
severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado.

...TN/MS/AL/GA...
The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern
MS. This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV
noted over eastern AR. A very moist and unstable air mass is in
place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into
the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon.
Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a
low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few
supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two. Activity
will track into north GA this evening. Refer to MD #1252 for
further details.

...Central High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the
High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE
values will develop by mid-afternoon. Easterly/upslope flow will
contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and
southward along the DCVZ in CO. These storms will track into the
CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes.

..Hart/Moore.. 06/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221958
SWODY1
SPC AC 221957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and
evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail and a
tornado or two.

...20z Update Central High Plains...
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong to severe
storms, including supercells, are developing across parts of WY and
CO and should spread east/southeastward this afternoon and evening.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and the discrete mode should favor
significant severe hail with these storms into this evening. A
tornado or two is also possible, focused mostly along the Cheyenne
Ridge where stronger low-level shear is being observed.

...Mid Atlantic...
Several rounds of storms remain likely this afternoon and evening
beneath the strong mid-level zonal flow aloft. Damaging winds appear
to be the most likely threat with scattered but mostly cellular
storms through this evening. A tornado or two remains possible. This
is most likely near the warm front across northern NJ and southern
Long Island where stronger and backed low-level flow is supporting
100-150 0-1km SRH.

Some guidance shows an increase in storm clustering and stronger
outflow gusts from northern VA into northern MD/DE and southern
PA/NJ this evening. Should this occur, a locally more favorable
corridor of damaging winds could develop. However, this remains very
uncertain given the more scattered and cellular convection observed
so far.

...TX/OK...
Some mode signal exists for isolated convective development this
afternoon along the trailing outflow boundary across north TX from
the morning MCS. Very large buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates
could support hail with these storms. However, the lack of broader
large-scale ascent suggests more isolated coverage through this
evening.

..Lyons.. 06/22/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026/

...Mid Atlantic...
Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident
over OH/MI. As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface
cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Considerable clouds are present ahead of the
front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and
confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later
today. However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to
severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado.

...TN/MS/AL/GA...
The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern
MS. This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV
noted over eastern AR. A very moist and unstable air mass is in
place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into
the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon.
Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a
low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few
supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two. Activity
will track into north GA this evening. Refer to MD #1252 for
further details.

...Central High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the
High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE
values will develop by mid-afternoon. Easterly/upslope flow will
contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and
southward along the DCVZ in CO. These storms will track into the
CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230102
SWODY1
SPC AC 230100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Supercells and multicell clusters will continue to produce
significant-severe wind/hail across the central High Plains this
evening. Severe gusts and widn damage may accompany storms near the Mid-Atlantic coast through late evening. Tonight, isolated severe
storms may occur across the southern Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance toward the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard
while a pronounced mid-level impulse ejects into the
central/northern High Plains. At the surface, a trough will impinge
on the East Coast while ongoing/developing storms continue to
progress along a baroclinic boundary, from the Mid-MS Valley
northwestward along the High Plains. Strong shear and buoyancy in
both of these regimes will continue to foster severe potential into
the evening hours.

...Mid Atlantic into the Southeast...
A well defined QLCS is tracking across the Mid-Atlantic, with more
sporadic pulse-cellular/multicellular storms progressing over the
Southeast. The QLCS will move offshore over the next hour,
accompanied by a damaging gust threat. Across the Southeast,
multicellular storms supported by the remnants of daytime heating or
localized lift along MCVs appear to be on the wane. Nonetheless,
1000-2000 J/kg remnant MLCAPE will support localized wet downburst
potential with some of the stronger storms over the next couple of
hours. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out with MCV storms
across the TN Valley.

...High Plains...
Supercells remain in progress across the central to northern High
Plains, where 2-3 inch in diameter hail and gusts well exceeding 75
mph have occurred. 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 8+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates, precede many of these supercells, so a severe wind/hail
threat will continue with these storms for at least a few more
hours. A tornado is also possible for supercells that remain inflow
dominant. There is some chance that supercells could grow upscale
into an MCS, which would traverse a surface boundary across the
southern High Plains into the Southern Plains. Confidence in this
scenario is quite low. However, should this evolution occur, severe
gusts would be possible.

...Southern Plains into the Middle MS Valley...
Thunderstorms are initiating along a surface boundary, draped from
the TX Panhandle into central MS. 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50
kts of effective bulk shear overspreads this boundary, which would
promote multicells and supercells with a severe wind/hail threat
wherever storms mature. Nonetheless, forcing along this boundary is
weak, so the severe threat should remain isolated through tonight.

..Squitieri.. 06/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230607
SWODY1
SPC AC 230605

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and
isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into
parts of the central and southern Plains today into tonight.
Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with storms
along the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered storms capable of isolated severe
wind/hail are possible across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Eastern Seaboard while upper
ridging builds over the western into central CONUS today. Multiple
mid-level impulses are poised to traverse the upper ridge,
supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development in multiple
rounds across the Plains. These rounds of storms will encompass the
entire period (12Z Tuesday morning through 12Z Wednesday morning),
resulting in a complex forecast. Nonetheless, stronger flow aloft
associated with the ridge will advect an EML atop seasonal low-level
moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to
support an appreciable severe threat, especially over the central
High Plains. Otherwise, a cold front approaching the East Coast will
support a line of severe thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic.

...Portions of the central High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, upslope flow beneath a glancing mid-level
impulse will support the initiation of at least isolated storms.
These storms will develop atop a relatively mixed boundary layer and
surface dewpoints approaching 60 F, overspread by 9 C/km mid-level
lapse rates, resulting in moderate to locally strong buoyancy (i.e.
3000+ J/kg MLCAPE). Strong vertical wind shear will also be in
place, with 50 kts of effective bulk shear driven by elongated
hodographs with modest low-level curvature. Supercells will be the
primary storm mode, accompanied by a threat for all hazards. Given
the potential for a mixed boundary layer, intense gusts well
exceeding 75 mph will be possible, in addition to hailstones
potentially reaching the 2-3.5 inch range. Any supercells that can
ingest terrain-induced low-level vertical vorticity may be
accompanied by a landspout/hybrid tornado threat.

...Portions of the central and southern Plains...
A surface boundary currently resides along the Red River, with
thunderstorms developing all along this boundary from the TX
Panhandle to central MS. At the start of the forecast period (12Z
Tuesday), an established low-level jet will be in the process of
transporting a moist low-level airmass northward, perhaps
encouraging northward movement of the surface boundary as well.
However, an MCS may be develop somewhere along the KS/OK border at
the start of the period along an elevated boundary, which will drift southeastward through the late morning/early afternoon hours. The
evolution of this MCS and interacting convection with the
aforementioned surface boundary introduces considerable uncertainty
to the forecast, especially for late afternoon/early evening storms.

If the MCS and merging surface boundary convection linger over the
southern Plains through the day, later severe potential may be
reduced. However, if convection can exit the Plains or somehow
dissipate by late morning/early afternoon, enough destabilization
may take place for an evening severe threat. Should the later
scenario unfold, convective initiation over the southern High Plains
may result in severe hail/wind producing supercells merging into a
cold-pool driven MCS, which in turn may produce a severe wind swath
with 75+ mph gusts. Given so much uncertainty with the details of
this forecast, a broad area of 15 percent/CIG1 probabilities were
introduced for portions of the central and southern Plains.
Considerable adjustments to this forecast (upgrades or probabilities
removal) may be needed depending on convective and subsequent
modified environmental evolution through the first half of the
period.

...Parts of the Northern Plains...
Cold temperatures aloft and 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates will
accompany the passage of an upper-low over parts of the northern
Plains into the Upper MS Valley. By afternoon peak heating,
thunderstorms initiating along the periphery of the upper low, amid
a belt of stronger flow aloft (driving elongated hodographs) will
support multicells and perhaps transient supercells capable of
isolated severe wind and hail.

...Mid-Atlantic...
By late morning into early afternoon, surface temperatures warming
into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints will yield over 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE, but distributed through tall/thin profiles given poor (5-6
C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Nearly unidirectional tropospheric wind
profiles will yield nearly 40 kts of effective (speed) shear, which
will favor multicellular development and ultimately a squall line
along/ahead of the cold front. Damaging gusts are expected to be the
main threat, though a brief tornado may also occur wherever locally
backed near-surface winds may be realized.

..Squitieri/Halbert.. 06/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231252
SWODY1
SPC AC 231250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains today into tonight.
Scattered damaging winds should also occur with thunderstorms across
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

...Southern Plains...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms are occurring across western/southwest
KS into northwest OK this morning, aided by a 20-25 kt southerly
low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection. This convection
may tend to remain elevated for at least the next couple of hours,
as a surface front remains draped near the Red River vicinity.
However, there is substantial low-level moisture present across the
TX Panhandle into western OK along/south of the ongoing
thunderstorms (upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints). Steep
mid-level lapse rates atop this moist airmass is supporting MUCAPE
up to 3000-4000 J/kg. Strongly veering and modestly strengthening
winds with height through mid/upper levels is fostering upwards of
40-50 kt of effective bulk shear per recent RAP forecast soundings
and latest mesoanalysis estimates. This activity will likely
continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail this morning so long
as the mode remains supercellular.

With time, mergers/outflow interactions should foster some
clustering/upscale growth into the afternoon. There is some
potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe/damaging winds
to spread southward this afternoon and evening across parts of the
TX Panhandle into western/central OK with one or more intense
clusters that form. Isolated significant gusts to 75-85 mph gusts
appear possible given an already very moist/unstable airmass that
will undergo additional destabilization with daytime heating.
Strongly considered increasing wind probabilities and introducing an
Enhanced Risk for this area. But, ongoing morning convection casts a
little too much uncertainty to upgrade with this outlook update.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorms ongoing across western NE this morning on the northern
periphery of the low-level jet and related moisture plume have
recently weakened. Still, this convection may continue to pose an
isolated severe hail/wind risk for as long as it can persist. But,
additional weakening is expected later this morning as it encounters
a less unstable airmass. Otherwise, westerly mid-level flow and weak
forcing will persist over the central High Plains today. Weak
low-level upslope flow and a small-scale mid-level perturbation
embedded within the westerly flow aloft should encourage at least
isolated convective development across southeast WY into eastern CO
by early/mid evening.

Model trends suggest that robust convective initiation may be
delayed until 00Z or perhaps even later (04-06Z). Still, a
conditionally favorable environment for very large hail will exist
across the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight. Any
thunderstorms that can develop will likely become severe given
strong deep-layer shear, the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates, and moderate to locally strong instability. Have maintained
the Enhanced Risk for large to very large hail, but lower confidence
exists for a swath of severe/damaging winds given the probable late
timing of convection and tendency for this activity to remain
discrete. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.

...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop by
late morning/early afternoon along and ahead of the front. While
lapse rates aloft will remain poor, sufficient instability will
exist with daytime heating to support surface-based convection. A
generally linear/cluster mode is anticipated given the frontal
forcing, with modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow and related shear
supporting thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds
appear to be the main threat with this activity as it spreads
eastward through the afternoon, with the greatest concentration
forecast across parts of southeast VA and eastern NC. A brief
tornado or two may also occur with embedded mesocirculations in the
line.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Given
sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this activity
may pose an isolated severe hail/wind risk, along with a tornado or
two. Modest instability should keep the overall severe risk fairly isolated/marginal.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231647
SWODY1
SPC AC 231645

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other
severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and
eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest.

...Southern Plains and Central High Plains...
Complex scenario exist with multiple iterations of convective
clusters ongoing regionally at midday, including a relatively more intense/focused cluster near the southwest Oklahoma and eastern
Texas Panhandle border vicinity. These storms are likely to persist
generally south-southeastward today, and potentially grow upscale
with continued wind/hail potential, but details are complicated by
prevalent outflow/cloud debris etc. Additional development may occur
later today into tonight on the west-northwest fringe of these early
day storms/residual outflows and near the front/east of the surface
low, which could bring about a renewed severe potential mainly in
the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, recent HRRR runs
(14z/15z) have notably trended much more limited with this
late-day/evening redevelopment scenario.

Farther west/north, weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale
mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft
should encourage at least isolated convective development across
southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado by late afternoon, and more
so, into early/mid evening. A conditionally favorable environment
for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this
afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will
likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong
instability. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.

...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Thunderstorms will increase through early/mid afternoon
along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain
poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to
support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced and
increasing low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting
thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the
main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the
afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. A brief tornado or
two may also occur.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota.
Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this
activity is expected to pose a severe hail/wind risk, along with the
potential for a couple of tornadoes in immediate proximity of the
surface boundary where low-level CAPE/shear will be maximized.

...Coastal Southeast...
Isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of downbursts/wind
damage will be possible this afternoon within a moist and unstable
airmass for areas including far southern Georgia and northern
Florida.

..Guyer/Moore.. 06/23/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 232008
SWODY1
SPC AC 232007

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND COLORADO FRONT RANGE...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains through tonight. Other
severe thunderstorms are expected across southeast Virginia and
eastern North Carolina, as well across the Upper Midwest.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was a westward expansion of
severe probabilities (including the ENH) toward the higher terrain
in southern/central CO. Rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
60s dewpoints) along the western edge of convectively reinforced
outflow in the central High Plains will spread westward beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates toward the higher terrain through this
afternoon into tonight -- in response to a passing midlevel wave to
the north. This rich moisture/outflow and enhanced easterly upslope
flow should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along
the higher terrain into this evening. Around 50 kt of effective
shear and strong surface-based buoyancy will promote supercells
capable of producing very large hail along the I-25 corridor.

Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made to the outlook, to
include trimming severe probabilities behind eastward-spreading
convection in the Mid-Atlantic, and a southward expansion of
probabilities in the southern Plains (ahead of southward-moving
thunderstorm clusters).

..Weinman.. 06/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026/

...Southern Plains and Central High Plains...
Complex scenario exist with multiple iterations of convective
clusters ongoing regionally at midday, including a relatively more intense/focused cluster near the southwest Oklahoma and eastern
Texas Panhandle border vicinity. These storms are likely to persist
generally south-southeastward today, and potentially grow upscale
with continued wind/hail potential, but details are complicated by
prevalent outflow/cloud debris etc. Additional development may occur
later today into tonight on the west-northwest fringe of these early
day storms/residual outflows and near the front/east of the surface
low, which could bring about a renewed severe potential mainly in
the form of large hail and damaging winds. However, recent HRRR runs
(14z/15z) have notably trended much more limited with this
late-day/evening redevelopment scenario.

Farther west/north, weak low-level upslope flow and a small-scale
mid-level perturbation embedded within the westerly flow aloft
should encourage at least isolated convective development across
southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado by late afternoon, and more
so, into early/mid evening. A conditionally favorable environment
for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this
afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will
likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong
instability. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.

...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Thunderstorms will increase through early/mid afternoon
along and ahead of the front. While lapse rates aloft will remain
poor, sufficient instability will exist with daytime heating to
support surface-based convection. A generally linear/cluster mode is anticipated given the frontal forcing, with modestly enhanced and
increasing low/mid-level flow and related shear supporting
thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds appear to be the
main threat with this activity as it spreads eastward through the
afternoon, with the greatest concentration forecast across parts of
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. A brief tornado or
two may also occur.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota.
Given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this
activity is expected to pose a severe hail/wind risk, along with the
potential for a couple of tornadoes in immediate proximity of the
surface boundary where low-level CAPE/shear will be maximized.

...Coastal Southeast...
Isolated severe thunderstorms mainly capable of downbursts/wind
damage will be possible this afternoon within a moist and unstable
airmass for areas including far southern Georgia and northern
Florida.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240059
SWODY1
SPC AC 240057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains tonight.

...Central High Plains into the southern Plains...
Three primary areas of thunderstorms currently exist across the
region: southeast WY, east-central CO, and the TX South Plains
vicinity. The northernmost cluster across southeast WY has struggled
to maintain intensity, likely due to modest convective inhibition
remaining in place. Even so, given the favorable low-level moisture
downstream, there is still some chance for intensification.
Environmental conditions support the potential for large hail up to
2 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts with any storms that
can mature into the more favorable buoyancy downstream.

Large to very large hail remains possible for at least the next
several hours with the discrete, splitting storms across
east-central CO. Strong outflow (greater than 50 kt) remains
possible as well. Additional storm development appears likely in
this area amid persistent low-level moisture advection and a
strengthening low-level jet. These additional storms will have
similar hazards, with large to very large hail as the primary risk.
Hail from 2" to 3.5" in diameter is possible. Strong gusts could
become more likely with time if cold pool amalgamation results in a forward-propagating cluster.

Several supercells continue across the TX South Plains. A
strengthening low-level jet and steep mid-level lapse rates will
help maintain the risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts
with these storms for at least the next several hours.

...Arklatex and vicinity...
Ongoing cluster moving through the Arklatex will likely continue
southeastward tonight, with an attendant risk for isolated damaging
gusts. Some hail is possible as well, particularly late
tonight/early tomorrow with any warm-air advection storms that
develop in the wake of this cluster.

..Mosier.. 06/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240608
SWODY1
SPC AC 240606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains today with a threat for large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions
of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern
Utah.

...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over
northern Mexico, covering much of the Southeast and Texas. This
imagery also shows an upper low centered near the ND/MN/Manitoba
border intersection. These features are expected to remain largely
in place throughout the day Wednesday, with a belt of moderate
mid-level flow extending from the northern/central High Plains into
mid MS Valley between these two features. Most guidance shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moving within this westerly flow
across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley. A convectively augmented
vorticity maximum is also forecast to arc through the northern
periphery of the Southwest upper ridging, moving across the western
Great Basin during the afternoon before then continuing eastward
across the central Rockies during the evening/overnight. Evolution
of these features, in addition to continued eastward/southeastward
progress of any overnight convective complexes, will result in
scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Intermountain West to
the MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over a
few areas within this larger region, including northern/central UT,
the Upper MS Valley, and from the central/southern High Plains into
AR/MS.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Low-level moisture will remain over the lower elevations of the
southern and central High Plains on Wednesday, combining with strong
heating and steep mid-level lapse rates to support the development
of strong buoyancy by late afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible
across the majority of the region, with the highest coverage
anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into
northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy is maximized as well.
Deep-layer shear will be quite strong within this corridor as well,
with 0-6 km shear from 55 to 65 kt possible. These conditions
support the potential for robust supercells capable of large to very
large hail. Hail from 3" to 4" in diameter is possible. Notable
low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two
in this region as well, although the weak winds around 700 mb could
result in slow supercell motion and potential for more storm
interactions. Eventual upscale growth into forward-propagating MCS
capable of strong to severe gusts is probable.

Lower storm coverage is anticipated farther south, with warmer
temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly
outflow-dominant storm mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the
primary risk, although some isolated hail is possible as well.

...Great Basin...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region during the
afternoon, as the convectively augmented vorticity maximum mentioned
in the synopsis interacts with modest mid-level moisture and
resulting buoyancy. A deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer will support
potential thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, particularly
across northern UT where higher thunderstorm coverage is
anticipated.

...Upper Midwest...
A modest surface low, attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley, is forecast
to shift eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. Temperatures
are forecast to warm into the 70s ahead this low, which should be
sufficient for modest buoyancy given the low 60s dewpoints. The belt
of stronger mid-level flow will also support moderate vertical shear
(i.e. around 40 of 0-6 km shear) and the potential for more
organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts.

...South-Central KS/OK/Arklatex into MS...
Evolution of the thunderstorms ongoing across eastern CO will
significantly influence the early-day severe storm potential across
the region. Current expectation is for some remnant of whatever
cluster develops to be over south-central KS/north-central OK at the
start of the period, perhaps beginning to interact with the western
extent of a zone of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms
extending from north-central OK into southern AR/northern LA. Low predictability limits forecast confidence, but some limited severe
potential, both within the cluster and within the more cellular
warm-air advection storms, could exist in the morning if this
scenario materializes. The downstream airmass will be very moist,
and is forecast to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low
80s. This could lead to a reintensification of the cluster and/or
new development along its outflow. Deep-layer shear will be weak,
but strong updrafts could result in enough water loading to produce
a few strong gusts as the cluster continues southeastward.

...Southern MS/AL...
Some guidance indicates the cluster currently moving across northern
LA restrengthens as it moves through southern MS and southern AL
later this morning/afternoon. Like the areas farther northwest, this
region will be weakly sheared, but a few stronger water-loaded gusts
are possible.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241257
SWODY1
SPC AC 241255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms should occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with
a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes all possible.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
Plains today. As daytime heating occurs and low-level clouds present
this morning gradually erode, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should
develop by mid to late afternoon in a narrow corridor across
northeast CO into southeast WY. This instability will also be aided
by the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorms should
eventually develop this afternoon across much the region as strong
mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a shortwave trough
over the northern Plains overspreads the central Rockies/High
Plains. The highest convective coverage is anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where
buoyancy should be maximized. Deep-layer shear will be rather
strong, with values up to 50-60 kt. These conditions will support
the potential for intense supercells capable of large to very large
hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter possible). Notable low-level
curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this
region as well. Eventual upscale growth into a southeastward-moving
MCS capable of producing severe winds is probable into eastern
CO/western KS this evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.

Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
also occur.

...Upper Midwest...
A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread WI and
vicinity today as a weak shortwave trough moves across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Extensive cloudiness is
prevalent across WI this morning, which will delay daytime heating
to some extent. But, seasonably cool temperatures aloft will aid up
to around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating
along/ahead of a weak cold front. Current expectations are for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with
moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear providing support for
updraft organization. A mix of multicells and supercells should pose
a threat for severe hail and damaging winds as they spread
east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
eventually weakening. Enough confidence exists in this scenario
occurring to include greater severe hail probabilities and a
corresponding Slight Risk.

...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
east-northeastward from the lower CO River Valley across the Great
Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well mixed with
strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon, with weak
instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will aid in
northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists for
strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon and
early evening. Have maintained the Slight Risk for severe winds
across parts of UT with no changes, as this area still appears to
have the best overlap of low-level moisture/instability and
scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
northern OK/southern KS, likely aided by weak low-level warm
advection. Recent radar imagery suggests this activity may be
acquiring an MCV circulation. This feature should track
southeastward towards the ArkLaTex through the day, generally along
and north of a surface front stalled near the Red River. Eventual re-strengthening of convection may occur, even though deep-layer
flow and related shear should remain rather modest. Isolated hail
and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores that form, but
the potential for a more organized bowing complex is uncertain.
Farther south into the lower MS Valley, additional thunderstorms may
form this afternoon ahead of the ongoing convection in northern LA
in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. While flow through the troposphere is expected to remain fairly modest with southward
extent across this region, some loosely organized clusters could
pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they spread towards
the central Gulf Coast through the early evening.

...Florida...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
the FL Peninsula. A moist low-level airmass with surface dewpoints
in the low to mid 70s is in place along/south of a front draped
across north FL. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the interior FL Peninsula and Atlantic
Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible given
steepened low-level lapse rates.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 241651
SWODY1
SPC AC 241649

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN...HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with
a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the Midwest and Great Basin.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
Plains today via low-level upslope flow, which should be most
focused/strongest across southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado, and
to a lesser extent, the Raton Mesa vicinity. As daytime heating
occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode,
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in
a narrow corridor across northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming.
This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates.

Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across much the region
as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a
shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central
Rockies/High Plains. Accordingly, the highest convective coverage is anticipated from east-central/southeast Wyoming into
northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized.
Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt.
These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells
capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter
possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could
support a couple of tornadoes in this region as well. Eventual
upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing
severe winds is probable into eastern Colorado/western Kansas this
evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.

Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
also occur.

...Midwest including portions of Wisconsin/northern Illinois...
A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread Wisconsin
and northern Illinois today as a weak shortwave trough moves across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Seasonably
cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold
front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally
strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization.
A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe
hail and damaging winds, and possibly some tornado risk, as they
spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
eventually weakening.

...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
east-northeastward from the lower Colorado River Valley across the
Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well
mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon,
with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will
aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists
for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon
and early evening.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms should increase/re-intensify regionally this
afternoon, aided by multiple MCVs interacting with a convectively
augmented front that extends northwest-southeastward regionally.
Deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest.
Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores
that form, but the potential for more organized clusters is
uncertain. Influenced by prior/modifying outflow, at least a
conditional-type risk for supercell redevelopment later today is
most probable across portions of southern/eastern Oklahoma toward
the ArkLaTex.

...Florida...
After mostly clear skies this morning, cumulus field continues to
increase within a very moist air mass to the south of a front across
the northern Florida Peninsula, with low to mid 70s F warm-sector
surface dewpoints. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the interior Florida Peninsula and
Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates.

..Guyer/Moore.. 06/24/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 242001
SWODY1
SPC AC 241959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN...HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for
large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of
the Midwest and Great Basin.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly southeastward
in southwestern NE. Here, diurnal heating amid lower 60s dewpoints
will yield a corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy, which
combined with 50-60 kt of effective shear, will support the
potential for a couple intense supercells capable of producing very
large hail and severe gusts. The adjacent SLGT risk was also
expanded southeastward into south-central NE and north-central KS,
where upscale-growing clusters will pose a risk for severe wind
gusts with time.

The SLGT risk in eastern NM was expanded westward toward the higher
terrain, given the potential for initially discrete supercell
structures capable of producing large hail.

Finally, a CIG1 wind area was added over portions of the Great
Basin, where a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing buoyancy
may support some gusts upwards of 75 mph.

..Weinman.. 06/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026/

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
Plains today via low-level upslope flow, which should be most
focused/strongest across southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado, and
to a lesser extent, the Raton Mesa vicinity. As daytime heating
occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode,
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in
a narrow corridor across northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming.
This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates.

Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across much the region
as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a
shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central
Rockies/High Plains. Accordingly, the highest convective coverage is anticipated from east-central/southeast Wyoming into
northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized.
Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt.
These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells
capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter
possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could
support a couple of tornadoes in this region as well. Eventual
upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing
severe winds is probable into eastern Colorado/western Kansas this
evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.

Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
also occur.

...Midwest including portions of Wisconsin/northern Illinois...
A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread Wisconsin
and northern Illinois today as a weak shortwave trough moves across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Seasonably
cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold
front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally
strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization.
A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe
hail and damaging winds, and possibly some tornado risk, as they
spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
eventually weakening.

...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
east-northeastward from the lower Colorado River Valley across the
Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well
mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon,
with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will
aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists
for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon
and early evening.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms should increase/re-intensify regionally this
afternoon, aided by multiple MCVs interacting with a convectively
augmented front that extends northwest-southeastward regionally.
Deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest.
Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores
that form, but the potential for more organized clusters is
uncertain. Influenced by prior/modifying outflow, at least a
conditional-type risk for supercell redevelopment later today is
most probable across portions of southern/eastern Oklahoma toward
the ArkLaTex.

...Florida...
After mostly clear skies this morning, cumulus field continues to
increase within a very moist air mass to the south of a front across
the northern Florida Peninsula, with low to mid 70s F warm-sector
surface dewpoints. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the interior Florida Peninsula and
Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250101
SWODY1
SPC AC 250059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms accompanied by large hail may gradually
evolve into an organizing cluster with increasing potential to
produce damaging wind gusts across parts of northeastern Colorado
into parts of southwestern Nebraska and western Kansas tonight.

...01Z Update...

...Front Range into adjacent central Great Plains...
Warm advection based near the 700 mb level, near the northeastern
periphery of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air lingering to the
east of the Front Range, is becoming the focus for increasing
thunderstorm development across and east-southeast of the Cheyenne
Ridge vicinity. This seems likely to continue to grow upscale
during the next few hours, aided by inflow of seasonably moist
boundary-layer air emanating from along and south of a stalled to
slowly southwestward advancing surface front across this region
through the central Nebraska/Kansas state border vicinity.

Beneath 20 kt westerly deep-layer mean flow (but strongly sheared
due to pronounced veering of winds from easterly to westerly with
height), this activity probably will gradually organize as it
propagates east-southeastward this evening, and pose increasing
potential for strong to severe surface gusts. Strongest gusts and
highest severe wind probabilities may eventually focus on the
southwestern flank of the evolving system across parts of east
central Colorado into northwest/west central Kansas, near the nose
of a modest (30+ kt around 850 mb) southeasterly boundary-layer jet.

...Southern Wisconsin/Northern Illinois...
Low-level moistening is maintaining boundary-layer instability in a
pre-frontal corridor across west central through northeastern
Illinois early this evening. As larger-scale mid-level troughing
continues to slowly dig across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region,
forcing for ascent may maintain vigorous thunderstorm development
posing a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of southeastern Wisconsin/northeastern Illinois into portions of northwestern
Indiana into mid to late evening.

..Kerr.. 06/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250602
SWODY1
SPC AC 250600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two organizing clusters of storms, with potential to produce
strong to severe wind gusts, are possible across parts of the Texas
South Plains through central Great Plains late this afternoon into
tonight. Isolated strong storm development preceding this activity
across parts of north central Oklahoma into south central Kansas may
pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes by early this evening.

...Discussion...
The westerlies are undergoing amplification across the mid-latitude
Pacific. Later today into tonight, models indicate that this will
include digging large-scale mid-level troughing on its leading edge,
across and inland of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it
appears that generally zonal flow will prevail across the northern
and central tier of the U.S., to the north of ridging in the
subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, mid-level troughing,
accompanied by an area of modest height falls within otherwise
rising heights, is forecast to turn eastward across the lower Great
Lakes vicinity. Upstream, initially stronger mid-level height falls accompanying a short wave perturbation, and perhaps a notable
embedded mesoscale convective vortex, may be in the process of
overspreading the central Great Plains at the outset of the period,
before continuing toward the lower Missouri Valley, amidst weak to
modest larger-scale height rises late this afternoon through
tonight.

In lower levels, a broad weak surface low is forecast to migrate
across the lower Great Lakes, with a an ill-defined trailing influx
of cooler/drier air advancing a bit farther southward through the
central Great Plains, and southeast of the Upper Midwest through the
Great Lakes and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley. It appears
that surface troughing will deepen through the day to the lee of the
southern Rockies, as strong heating occurs beneath a remnant plume
of very warm elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great
Plains. Near the northern/northeastern periphery of this air mass,
a zone of strong differential heating may develop by late afternoon,
northeast of the Raton ridge into northern Oklahoma. This boundary
might be augmented by outflow from a cluster of storms now evolving
across northeastern Colorado into western Kansas. It appears that
this boundary may retreat northward into portions of southern Kansas
and Missouri tonight.

...Parts of southern/central Great Plains...
The potential convective evolution for today remains unclear, and
severe weather potential will considerably be impacted by
sub-synoptic developments, which remain unclear. This includes the
subsequent evolution of the cluster of storms now propagating into
northwestern Kansas, and another forming across the Texas Panhandle
vicinity. However, guidance generally suggests that low-level
convergence and destabilization within the lee surface trough across
the Panhandle vicinity into Texas South Plains may provide support
for widespread thunderstorm development by early this evening. And
the boundary across the central Great Plans, reinforced by early day
outflow and subsequent differential heating, may eventually become a
focus for increasing thunderstorm development this evening into the
overnight hours.

A deeply mixed boundary layer across the Panhandle/South Plains
vicinity may become unstable enough to support the risk for large
hail, in addition to damaging wind gusts late this afternoon into
evening.

Low-level convergence/warm advection along the zone of differential
surface heating might promote at least isolated supercell
development somewhere across north central Oklahoma into south
central Kansas, where a convectively augmented belt of westerly
mid-level flow may contribute to strong shear. If this occurs, this
may be accompanied by a period of increasing potential for a tornado
or two by early evening, near the nose of a strengthening southerly
850 mb jet, before evolving into an upscale growing cluster with
strong surface gusts becoming the primary potential hazard
overnight.

...Lower Great Lakes...
Convection allowing model output is still not providing a clear
signal for more than rather isolated pre-frontal strong to severe
thunderstorm development. However, strengthening westerly flow in
the 700-500 mb layer could become sufficient to support organized
convective development, including supercells, with sufficient
destabilization. Depending on model trends, it is still possible
that probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this
period.

...Parts of central and southern Wyoming...
Latest convection allowing guidance suggests that thermodynamic
profiles by this afternoon could become conducive to the evolution
of an organizing cluster of storms with potential to produce strong
to severe surface gusts, aided by forcing for ascent associated with
a short wave perturbation emerging from the northern intermountain
region.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 06/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251250
SWODY1
SPC AC 251248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop today across parts of
the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging
winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential should
exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...
Severe potential today across the southern/central Plains will be
heavily influenced by ongoing convection this morning extending from
western KS into northeast OK. These thunderstorms are largely tied
to modest warm/moist advection at low levels, evidenced by recent
VWPs across this area (KDDC/KVNX/KINX) and the 12Z observed OUN
sounding. Latest surface analysis indicates a weak surface low is
present across southeast CO, with a front extending eastward from
this low across KS. A secondary boundary/warm front was also
analyzed along/near the KS/OK border, with generally 70s surface
dewpoints and greater instability present to its south. The
thunderstorms across western KS have recently strengthened, with
evidence of a leading supercell and some attempt at clustering just
to its west with a possible/developing MCV circulation. This
activity may pose at least an isolated hail/wind threat through the
morning as it tracks eastward across southern KS. But, it may tend
to remain somewhat elevated to the north of the warm front.
Accordingly, the overall severe threat with this convection is
uncertain. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1307 for more details on
the short-term severe threat across KS.

The net effect of the morning convection may be to reinforce the
boundary across northern OK/southern KS. Most guidance continues to
suggest that a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability
will exist this afternoon from southeast CO (to the east of the weak
surface low) east-southeastward into southern KS/northern OK.
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across this area
later today as a weak mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward
over the central High Plains. With strong deep-layer shear expected,
initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail and severe
gusts. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy
quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level
shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary
across southern KS/northern OK through the afternoon and evening as
a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Elongated/curved hodographs
suggest a threat for a few tornadoes will exist, especially with any thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the
enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears
possible if a supercell mode can be maintained.

Higher-based convection should develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread eastward across northwest
TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and eventually into western OK this
evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before
eventually weakening.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...
50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening
as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak
surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes
today, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to
low 60s ahead of the front this morning. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of OH into western/central PA and western NY where slightly
stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. Confidence
in stronger instability and a greater severe risk remains too low
for higher hail/wind probabilities with this update.

...Utah into Wyoming and Montana...
Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from UT into WY this
afternoon and evening. Some chance for occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast ID, WY, and parts of MT, where
cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear,
and pockets of greater instability should support more robust
convection.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/25/2026

$$

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