AWUS01 KWNH 112003
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-120101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0386
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...Central Appalachians/Northern Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112001Z - 120101Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are occasionally exhibiting
heavy rainfall character due to cell mergers. Hourly rain amounts
to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to widely scattered
occurrences of flash flooding.

Discussion...Veggie Band imagery shows what appears to be a low-
to mid-level vorticity maximum/possible MCV moving across Lake
Erie. This feature has led to shower and thunderstorm development
across its eastern and southern flanks over the past few hours.=20
While there was a brief period of cell training a couple hours ago
near the southwestern NY coast, lately heavy rain cores have been
caused by cell collisions, with hourly amounts up to 1-2" an hour
estimated by radar. Precipitable water values are ~1.8" per GPS
data. ML CAPE is 1000-2500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is towards
25 kts.

For the next couple hours, there could be a further increase in
cell coverage which could lead to further cell collisions and a
greater incidence of heavy rainfall. Given the parameters above,
hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible. Flash flood guidance
values are modest to low across portions of NY, western PA, and
WV. Widely scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!44_4RXmN49esyBPla5rqGEUJhPmPR1SUGrBhDICkrv8M0GfvUtkolB81bNlIY3zIBEIX= 11CPHZQLPtWuYUZfAho8KtQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43357648 42637507 40827783 38507965 38128112=20
39498220 41477971 43097821=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 120010
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-120507-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0387
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of IL & IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120007Z - 120507Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are showing some
training character with embedded mesocyclones at times. Hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" could lead to flash flooding in urban areas
and where soils have partial saturation.

Discussion...Two bands of convection -- one across northernmost IL
and the other moving into central IL -- have shown training
character over the past several hours. This is occurring downwind
of an intersection of a mesoscale front with the synoptic scale
cold front for the southern band. In the case of the northern
training band, it is near a surface convergence zone ahead of an
apparent mesoscale occluded cyclone passing from northern IL into
far southern WI. Precipitable water values of 1.5-2" inhabit the
area per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of is 40-60 kts. A pool
of 3000-4000 J/kg of ML CAPE exists to the south of east of these
bands.

The expectation is for the convective pattern to narrow and pick
up the pace with time once it plows through the instablity pools
that lie ahead and while the 850 hPa inflow veers with time. This
should eventually lead to a decrease in the extent and intensity
of the heavy rainfall as it clears central IN by 05z per the 18z
HREF and 12z REFS guidance. The MPD bounds used the 12z REFS
probabilities of 2"+, recent radar reflectivity, and where flash
flood guidance has been lowered by recent rainfall or urban areas.
Until 05z, hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" remain possible, both
within training bands or near/ahead of any embedded mesocyclones.=20
This would be a problem over partially saturated soils and across
any impacted urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_cfWgtAbLPzthER-0nhaZEDvNjEJ8jerGJTtBm8iDTQ5kiLBVt8NE_Khrj3DTsDnZnJm= qXqc2KPOjPTEcmMf7EVdAuc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42538738 41688615 40658545 39308640 38978951=20
39589106 40618929 41418941 42318878=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 120056
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-120333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of Northeast PA & the NJ/NY border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120053Z - 120333Z

Summary...A mesoscale wave of low pressure has been leading to
some heavy rainfall as of late in northeast PA. Over the next few
hours, hourly rain amounts to 3" appear possible where cells merge
or train.

Discussion...An incoming convective line has led to a mesoscale
wave near Scranton PA, which has led to some cell training.=20
Additional convection lies ahead of this wave near the northern
PA/NJ border over the top of an instability pool with 2000-3000
J/kg of ML CAPE. Effective bulk shear is near 30 kts. The
instability gradient near the NJ/NY border aligns with a low-level
convergence zone which extends from the NY/NJ border
east-southeast across western Long Island, partially caused by
convective outflow from thunderstorms which passed through Long
Island a couple of hours ago.

The mesoscale guidance generally does not advertise thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall to escape northeast PA. However, none of the
ongoing convection appears to be dying quite yet, so there remains
a threat for heavy/excessive rainfall in this region for some
unspecified time. Hourly rainfall amounts to 3" remain possible
until the thunderstorms with heavy rainfall wane tonight. Since
it is unclear how long the organized convection will hold on, used
a three hour time horizon.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9oGlzW5NtWGyQ_3HCTLwXHIMJAtZgHoNx9Y0N7w5a1OXiXl-N2TDlqdAb4TylwW0n7Ek= 18NTvRie9Fne5DnQk47oE-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41637509 41297423 41107413 40867435 40917498=20
41307577=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 120059
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-120333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of Northeast PA & the NJ/NY border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120053Z - 120333Z

Summary...A mesoscale wave of low pressure has been leading to
some heavy rainfall as of late in northeast PA. Over the next few
hours, hourly rain amounts to 3" appear possible where cells merge
or train.

Discussion...An incoming convective line has led to a mesoscale
wave near Scranton PA, which has led to some cell training.=20
Additional convection lies ahead of this wave near the northern
PA/NJ border over the top of an instability pool with 2000-3000
J/kg of ML CAPE. Effective bulk shear is near 30 kts. The
instability gradient near the NJ/NY border aligns with a low-level
convergence zone which extends from the NY/NJ border
east-southeast across western Long Island, partially caused by
convective outflow from thunderstorms which passed through Long
Island a couple of hours ago.

The mesoscale guidance generally does not advertise thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall to escape northeast PA. However, none of the
ongoing convection appears to be dying quite yet, so there remains
a threat for heavy/excessive rainfall in this region for some
unspecified time. Hourly rainfall amounts to 3" remain possible
until the thunderstorms with heavy rainfall wane tonight. Since
it is unclear how long the organized convection will hold on, used
a nearly three hour time horizon.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_tsU469dGshsxBk1JXfAQu1pEojZvTrdosi3h1y7It8c61Gj6TFAAJqZ_l-rnizJtgdJ= 4ZCvalWcA7vO5s-qVkOLsT4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41637509 41297423 41107413 40867435 40917498=20
41307577=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 120421
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-120619-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0389
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120419Z - 120619Z

Summary...Brief urban flash flood potential exists.

Discussion...A well organized, linear convective complex continues
to make steady eastward progress over southern Lower Michigan
currently. The complex has been responsible for widespread areas
of 1 inch/hr rain rates especially along I-94 from Jackson west to
Battle Creek and vicinity over the past couple. These rates were
roughly 40-80% of local FFG across those areas.

With time, this complex will traverse more urbanized areas of
southeastern Michigan where local FFGs are slightly lower (around
1 inch/hr). Flash flooding may become more likely on an isolated
basis as these cells approach. The downstream airmass contains
sufficient moisture/shear and instability for continued
maintenance of the complex as it moves through the Detroit region
and into far southeastern Ontario through 06Z.

Given the aforementioned scenario supporting heavy rainfall, flash
flooding is possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Sk3xvtAGn0EZjx58yNAlxIfEcbkyaVUqCjC9zI4unOdqIM-CT4WW036G1J_mrn4VHRf= k7clo9xbzdp_HOfn1dvmDOg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42998280 42368239 41668327 41808448 42648435=20
42928396=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 120533
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-121131-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0390
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120531Z - 121131Z

Summary...Flash flood potential exist as a slow-moving front
sparks scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region
through at least 10Z/5a central.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic/surface observations depict a
focused, backbuilding axis of convection very near Talequah, OK
currently. The convection was embedded within weak flow aloft
(averaging around 20 knots) while anchored/backbuilding along a
front extending from near Lawton to near Springfield that was
moving slowly southeastward. Recent MRMS data suggests rain rates
exceeding 3 inches/hr in spots in/near Talequah, which isn't
surprising given the abundantly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) and
moist (1.75 inch PW) environment supporting the convection. The
rates were exceeding local FFG and prompting moderate FLASH
responses, suggesting that impacts from excessive runoff may be
occuring in a few spots beneath the convective band.

Models/CAMs suggest that the ongoing convective trends should
expand in coverage over the next few hours. Evidence of this is
already unfolding, with newer individual cells now noted near
Okmulgee. These cells should feed into the western edge of the
training axis and continue to promote areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain
rates at times on at least an isolated basis. Storms should
gradually spread/develop south-southeastward across the discussion
area, traversing I-40 and the Arkansas River Valley in the next
2-4 hours (07-09Z). Cells may persist southward from there, and
although FFGs increasing slightly with progression toward the
Ouachitas, local terrain sensitivities shoudl maintain a continued
flash flood risk into those areas overnight assuming storm mode
(i.e., backbuilding) remains favorable for flash flooding.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8kqZNUT-FmEhHx0m624Mhb90DYL3w6uqrqhfQ6QuxoPMrGEG197xCVmcrhg8cc7l-pIz= Xulu0DBXPW2XuSINy1P_hLY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36269400 35899308 34709277 33629366 33939548=20
34039654 35539623 36079533=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 120535
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-121131-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0390
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120531Z - 121131Z

Summary...Flash flood potential exists as a slow-moving front
sparks scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region
through at least 10Z/5a central.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic/surface observations depict a
focused, backbuilding axis of convection very near Talequah, OK
currently. The convection was embedded within weak flow aloft
(averaging around 20 knots) while anchored/backbuilding along a
front extending from near Lawton to near Springfield that was
moving slowly southeastward. Recent MRMS data suggests rain rates
exceeding 3 inches/hr in spots in/near Talequah, which isn't
surprising given the abundantly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) and
moist (1.75 inch PW) environment supporting the convection. The
rates were exceeding local FFG and prompting moderate FLASH
responses, suggesting that impacts from excessive runoff may be
occurring in a few spots beneath the convective band.

Models/CAMs suggest that the ongoing convective trends should
expand in coverage over the next few hours. Evidence of this is
already unfolding, with newer individual cells now noted near
Okmulgee. These cells should feed into the western edge of the
training axis and continue to promote areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain
rates at times on at least an isolated basis. Storms should
gradually spread/develop south-southeastward across the discussion
area, traversing I-40 and the Arkansas River Valley in the next
2-4 hours (07-09Z). Cells may persist southward from there, and
although FFGs increasing slightly with progression toward the
Ouachitas, local terrain sensitivities should maintain a continued
flash flood risk into those areas overnight assuming storm mode
(i.e., backbuilding) remains favorable for flash flooding.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9um4v53bDIKacFRGnDDZV-xxLZPgm9ogznAOwjibvrfRiWBshQeC_mAEvNOpqa1TUDMW= 7z07R3aSnZRblu89sZcQj-A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36269400 35899308 34709277 33629366 33939548=20
34039654 35539623 36079533=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 121109
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-121700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0391
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...Southern & Southeast Oklahoma...Northern
Texas....Far Southwest Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121115Z - 121700Z

SUMMARY...Decaying MCS

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and Regional RADAR depict mature MCS
across Southeastern OK extending into southwest AR with increasing
bowing/cold pool structure evident along the southern edge of the
complex. WV suite shows the cluster is at the far trailing edge
of the northern stream longwave trough with a convectively
enhanced jet streak shifting out of the Ozark Plateau into the
Mid-MS Valley providing solid upper-level divergence/outflow to
maintain the complex in approaching diurnal minima of instability.


With the exiting upper-level support, low level rear(westerly)
inflow is isentropically ascending from north to south allowing
for redevelopment while maintaining placement of back-building
environment. This is allowing for some stationary tendrils of
ascent with downshear repeating elements, ingesting solidly
unstable, moist air with MUCAPE still over 2000 J/kg and solid
moisture flux convergence to maximize PWat loading over 2". As
such, rates have been remaining in that 1.5-2"/hr rates with a few
hours likely to occur as the complex becomes cold pool dominant.

RAP analysis denotes, pool of instability remains along and north
of the Red River with a minimum over north Texas and downstream
into northern LA. With 20-25kts of southwesterly becoming more
westerly across S OK and broadening 500-1000 thickness fields
across S AR/NE TX/N LA; propagation should be initially south the west-southwest bringing the upwind edge into south-central
TX/central North Texas while downstream convection in AR slowly
weakens in place near the effective cyclonic rotor of the MCS.=20
This will allow for some remaining 2-4" totals in SW AR until pool
of instability is exhausted. Forward propagation to the
west-southwest should limit localized totals, but given the direct
inflow and ample deep moisture intense instantaneous rates and
localized 2-3" totals in 60-90 minutes remains possible with an
isolated 4" across the Red River Basin through the remainder of
the morning as the complex weakens due to decreasing inflow
strength and reducing instability overall. This generally
follows the 06z NAM-Nest and recent RRFS evolution.

Hydrologically, these instantaneous rates and 2-4" totals are at
the limits of the naturally higher FFG values in the region which
remain around 2-2.5"/hr and 3-4"/3hrs, as such, localized flash
flooding remains possible but likely going to be limited in
coverage given the eventual forward speeds with best opportunity
along the anticyclonic (SE OK to south-central OK) and cyclonic
rotor/bookend circulation (SW AR).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-shJk3BD1TtymeycXIcO4dmKYPeSpheFSedcmWFS7uTC00WSDb8tc7XvKIljB7dK_r7l= oOKSU7lctujEEjf4GwKB0mk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35649534 35629470 35379443 34899414 34519344=20
33969338 33589365 33189451 32999530 32939621=20
33039732 33289805 33859828 34369788 35269645=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 121738
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-122305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0393
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of AR & MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121735Z - 122305Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall should sag primarily
southwest, with some potential for backbuilding into AR with time.
Hourly rain amounts up to 3" are possible, which could lead to
widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A long-lived convective line has sagged southward
from southern IL through western KY and western TN into northern
MS during the past six hours. The western end of the related
outflow boundary is being held up somewhat by a front lying to the
west and a surface low currently in northeast AR. Its
organization has been helped by effective bulk shear ~30 kts,
precipitable water values of roughly 1.75", and ML CAPE from
southeast through west of the complex of 2500-3000 J/kg. This
region's difluence aloft has been aided by the base of a shortwave
moving across MO at the present time.

Radar estimates have indicated hourly rain amounts up to 3" while
it moved near Memphis TN. Its quite possible that these hourly
rain amounts remain possible, particularly 21z or so when the 850
hPa flow is expected to back somewhat, which could slow forward
progression so long as the convection doesn't fully run through
the highest instability available by that time. Cell mergers,
short bouts of cell training, and random mesocyclones could cause
this degree of rainfall. Heavy rains of this magnitude would be
problematic in urban areas and challenge the 3 hourly flash flood
guidance values, in spots. Flash flood occurrences are expected
to be widely scattered in nature. The expectation is that once
the convection passes through the bulk of the instability pools
near the AR/MS border and northern AL/MS border that the activity
should try to accelerate, which should minimize heavy rain/flash
flood issues thereafter.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_ZHOhvh-i9EntrdiyYculJOP1eWFoFvZ6tIofD6oMUCrxJjCeDQ0AKAXaZFV2gniqbJB= pEHhbzRSIpn2uN9O-Bbr47A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35439145 34958855 34318823 32958865 33879134=20
34939237=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 121819
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-122217-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0394
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of North TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121817Z - 122217Z

Summary...A complex of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall is slowly
shrinking in scale west and north of Dallas-Fort Worth while
moving west-southwest. Hourly rain amounts to 3" remain possible
where cells stall, merge, or have short periods of training.

Discussion...An outflow boundary has been moving south and west
across northeast TX. Its northwest end is being held up somewhat
by a front to its northwest. Effective bulk shear is approaching
25 kts here, which has led to some level of convective
organization. Precipitable water values are 2-2.3" per GPS data.=20
Out ahead/southwest of the outflow boundary, ML CAPE of 2000-3500
J/kg exists.

The expectation is for the storms with the heaviest rainfall to
continue moving generally west-southwest at 20 kts over the next
several hours. There is a huge range in the HREF and REFS
guidance here, with the REFS guidance radically accelerating out
the outflow boundary across TX into tonight, while the HREF more
or less doesn't move the heavy rain area much at all, leaving many
possible solutions available to choose. Used its long term motion
as a guide here. Since the complex appears to be shrinking in
scale here, possibly due to the departure of a shortwave that was
leading to decent difluence aloft, chose a 4 hour window.=20
Uncertainty in greater than average in the convective expectations
of this area.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4SU71xyNLla-nEhvIO2frg7bQcpaU4IQvgdiwcniFVLLuw4vBvURIs3-3ULQBUKWyDfl= 8lwSqlBC2BFLdbY_3bxUgCI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33789877 33769709 33369620 32529659 32149708=20
32039787 32339882 33119932=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 121901
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-130000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0395
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of WV & southwest VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121900Z - 130000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across WV,
which are expected to grow in coverage and intensity. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" could lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across WV
ahead of a cold front during the past hour. Precipitable water
values are ~1.5". ML CAPE is ~2000 J/kg in the storms' vicinity.=20
Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts, which is allowing for some degree
of organization.

The guidance suggests an increase in coverage and intensity across
the region over the next several hours. Given the degree of
moisture and instability, hourly rain amounts to 2" should be
possible wherever storms merge or train. Flash flood guidance is
modest across the region, in some cases due to sensitivity caused
by steep orography. Widely scattered flash flooding could occur.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ttud89KfdNrAjyMfj7Ku32xiCCOcSqoQFO51X_JSUD7ASKwOTF1dr8AL8KOUltujeA3= df3lv4K2UYNSAkbCiIbK6EE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39447956 39277898 39017776 38127848 36748067=20
36228248 36728371 37608269 38838093=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 122018
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-130216-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0396
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast NM & the TX Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122016Z - 130216Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across the region. Hourly rain amounts up to 2" are possible
where storms are stationary, merge, or train.

Discussion...CIN is eroding across the region presently which is
leading to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage, and the
mesoscale guidance has done a good job with the timing of
convective initiation. A weak shortwave lies to the south and
southwest of the region in northeast Mexico. Precipitable water
values are 0.9-1.5". Pockets of ML CAPE exceed 2500 J/kg.=20
Effective bulk shear is around 25 kts. Somewhat lower
temperatures at 700 hPa today seem to be fostering greater
convective coverage.

The mesoscale guidance shows convection moving slowly/meandering
across the region over the next several hours. The concern is
that with sufficient coverage, cell mergers would become more
frequent which would enhance the heavy rainfall. In this
environment, hourly amounts up to 2" are possible. Flash flood
occurrences could be isolated to widely scattered. This would be
most problematic in rough terrain and in the vicinity of burn
scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7-aUT4CoBaa3f0QA4WcJRvqrK1FGdXfaVktbURxrojcSN951pfwIJv4z_RdQ1a4zj34D= V34Ct704qX8IZUAvT74GJrM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33980505 33570413 32510328 31120284 29600254=20
28910318 29450437 29950479 30560506 31110586=20
31670659 32380681 33910601=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 122046
FFGMPD
MEZ000-130214-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0397
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...in and near Maine

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122044Z - 130214Z

Summary...Slow-moving convection continues to develop and drift
across Maine. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" could lead to
isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding through
around 02z.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to form and drift
east across sections of Maine near and north of a front cutting
through the state. Precipitable water values are ~1.75". ML CAPE
of 500-1500 J/kg continues to inhabit western and central sections
of ME. Effective bulk shear near 25 kts has led to occasional
linear organization. Radar estimates of hourly rainfall as of
late have peaked around 2.5", which befits the environment.

Both the 12z HREF/REFS have been recently advertising heavy
rainfall too far to the north across northernmost Maine. They
indicate that convection in and near Maine will persist through
roughly 02z -- there is a difference of opinion on when the heavy
rainfall will end. Based on the timing, developing CIN is the
likely culprit on this timing as the cold front doesn't enter
western sections of Maine until 03z or so. Instability will not
likely be exhausted prior to frontal passage when another batch of
showers and thunderstorms could move through later tonight.=20
Hourly amounts up to 2.5" remain possible, which would be
problematic in urban areas and threaten the three hour flash flood
guidance in an isolated to widely scattered basis elsewhere.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-fDzz5_X0haWRnc4XMmOYhfK2V1Sv-mYjY_huLeihDYowhLetFf6d_TaZv0mS3Zs63wK= IUwu2AW0pf7fHNF9H8yk2Ls$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46816959 46676811 45416812 44017071 45267025=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 122115
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-130312-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0398
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
514 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...in and near central & southern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122112Z - 130312Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are starting to align across north-central
VA. As the band shifts southward with time, hourly amounts up to
2.5" are possible, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...Radar imagery is beginning to indicate training
convection between Madison and King George VA. RAP mass fields
indicate low-level convergence (at the surface and 850 hPa) in
this region. Precipitable water values are ~1.75". ML CAPE is
~2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is roughly 20 kts, which may be
allowing for some level of convective organization.

RAP/HREF/REFS guidance indicates a southward sag to the area with
time, caused by outflow boundaries heading towards the convection
from the north, outflow from convection entering western VA, and a
cold pool forming underneath this band. This should limit totals
to some degree, but even short bouts of cell training could lead
to 2.5" amounts in an hour, which would be problematic in urban
areas.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4VGeVM22jrzZ62lQmISskoBG4NC3zM5LGEtVD2QCIGS_JIUPlvF8y697NSlnhdOmGMiS= ESyBMLyxgJ4IVAQFWopauNs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MHX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38457879 38447720 38067603 37027536 36137572=20
36197684 36807834 38127974=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 122302
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-130300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0399
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of AR, MS, & LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122300Z - 130300Z

Summary...A shrinking area of convection with heavy rainfall is
expected to persist for another several hours. Until it fades
away, hourly rain amounts to 3" will remain possible which could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...An area of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall has been
shifting southwest as of late towards a pool of 3000+ J/kg of ML
CAPE, driven along by a large and long-lived outflow boundary.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.75-2" per GPS data. Effective
bulk shear is 20-30 kts, which leads to occasional convective
organization. A combination of backbuilding, short periods of
cell training, and cell mergers have occasionally led to 3" of
rain in an hour, per radar estimates.

There is some signal in the mesoscale guidance for this heavy rain
area to continue shrinking in scale as it eats away at the 2500+
J/kg ML CAPE pool (more or less the area between the MS/eastern AR
outflow boundary and the East TX/northwest LA/southwest AR outflow
boundary) as the shortwave in MO continues passing by to the
north. It appears CIN and decreasing convective organization will
lead to its demise at some point tonight. Until it fades away,
hourly rain amounts up to 3" remain possible which could lead to
flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hwXsKvsjakW8QZaJ3T5q_uBgwPR1KNVzZjw7CBKKw_om_1whHAfJR5HMTU12NM93vAS= EvpHEMcK9nU9RTTxKaANIGY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35119158 34689076 34269038 33568993 32589004=20
32089063 33009305 33389217 33809213 34539292=20
35109269=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 130027
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-130625-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0400
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...near the eastern NM/CO border, OK Panhandle, &
western OK/KS border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130025Z - 130625Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are growing in number & intensity near the
eastern NM/CO border. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" could lead to isolated to widely scattered instances
of flash flooding.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, there's been a noticeable
uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity across northeast NM and southeasternmost CO. A broad shortwave was noted on water vapor
imagery slowly strengthening across the Northern Rockies and Great
Basin. Precipitable water values are ~1" near the thunderstorm
activity. MU CAPE is ~2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of 30-50
kts has led to convective organization of the building storms.=20
Some radar estimates have already reached 2" in an hour at times.

The mesoscale guidance has a good signal for heavy rainfall moving
due east into/near portions of the OK Panhandle and the western
OK/KS border over the next six hours. This movement is implied by
the orientation of the MU CAPE gradient it would be traveling
within and by the adjustment to the 1000-500 hPa thickness pattern
expected in the near term. Increasing values of the
Galvez/Davison instability index this period supports the idea of
increased cell coverage with time, which should increase the risk
for heavy rainfall/flash flooding over the next several hours.=20
Mesocyclones are expected in this environment along with some
combination of cell training/mergers. This could eventually yield
2.5" within an hour and local amounts in the 4" range possible
since residence time should be limited due to the convection's
expected forward motion. Given the three hourly flash flood
guidance values, this could lead to isolated to widely scattered
flash flood concerns.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_cpTKDvarBxPa1QT49VYxWFTx70Xnmu6ruvl8AEF0U0tYxzZTTx81c-TiJc1TaOfLBQ4= M_rXlbaV8qYa06_lSulj1hI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37810309 37299917 36389847 35819942 35810470=20
36820397=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 131144
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-131700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0402
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
743 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwest
Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131145Z - 131700Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms capable of 2-3.5" totals moving
out of Sand Hills into lower FFGs suggesting increasing flash
flooding potential over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV depicts overall broad zonal pattern though
with a distinct split jet from northern stream streak over
WY/Dakotas and convectively enhanced streak out of KS/N MO. RAP
analysis confirms solid divergent pattern to further aid outflow
and maintain updraft strength over the coming hours as the west to
east convective line slides out of the Sand Hills of north-central
Nebraska. Strong southerly LLJ ascending over frontal zone
generally along the NEB/KS line provided solid speed/mass
convergence to break out strong thunderstorms across the Sand
Hills, but the LLJ is already starting to veer a bit but maintain
30-40kts of inflow. However, air over NE KS and E Nebraska is
much more conditionally unstable with MUCAPE values in excess of
3500 J/kg due to slightly steeper/drier mid-level profiles to help
maintain the complex as it starts to move over the 500-1000
thickness ridge. While there is greater mid-level drying, CIRA
LPW denotes the core of the moisture axis remains along the
western edge of the instability axis and given orientation of the
LLJ its proximity will continue to provide the ample moisture flux
to maintain solid heavy rainfall capability.=20

Regional RADAR denotes, solid hail production given the vigor of
updrafts, but KDP/ZDR trends do support accompanying heavy
rainfall production with rain rates up to 2"/hr locally; this may
be slightly inflated but not significantly so. So given the
orientation of the convective complex to the deep layer flow and
slight southeastward turning, there is solid signal for increased
duration of heavy rainfall to support 2-3.5" totals as it complex
moves into areas of lower FFG and recent saturated upper-soil
profiles especially in far SE NEB/SW IA and Northeast MO. FFG
values of 1.5-2"/hr reduce below 1.5" into the Missouri River
Valley proper; though 2-3"/3hr values across much of the area of
concern suggest incidents of flash flooding are clearly possible
this morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5gLvI_Yh3DbdB0sVNYgDBeWxL0Z6vPScw6nO4fNV0tttQeA7_bDnqNqYnR1vYeOVqreX= AGkQ109_2-JSoiisyHCpRLU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42009709 41879592 41439472 40659431 40109481=20
40139663 40799832 41299907 41719942 41999891=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 131111
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-131630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0401
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
709 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern & Central Missouri...Far Eastern
Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131110Z - 131630Z

SUMMARY...Increasing warm-advective convective coverage of
thunderstorms capable of repeating of 1.5-1.75"/hr rates and a
streak or two of 2-3" totals possibly inducing an incident or two
of localized flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and WV suite depict the older MCS
continuing to rapidly warm across NE OK though providing an
excellent upper-level enhancement to the exiting jet streak (noted
by anticyclonic arched transverse banding cirrus elements over E
KS into N MO). This right entrance ascent is further aided by
dPVA from the parent shortwave center along/just north of the
older MCS along the KS/OK line. As a result, low-level
southwesterly boundary layer to mid-level increase in flow
supports a warm-advective regime intersecting a well defined sfc
theta-E gradient/front oriented from NE KS across central MO. The
strong isentropic ascent/moisture flux convergence has resulted in
multiple break outs of convection across E KS into central MO at
different levels of bases (more elevated toward the northeast).=20

Surface or near surface-rooted cells have seen a greater vertical
ascent and rapid cooling in GOES-E 10.3um from Linn county, KS to
Cedar to Wright counties in MO. Deep layer steering is not super
uniform through depth, so more elevated cells northeast are likely
to trend more eastward, while the surface based cells have more of
a east-southeast to southeast motion. This would be suggestive of
potential repeating/training especially along the upwind side,
closer to moisture/instability axis. Downstream across the Ozark
Plateau, the low level moisture and instability are lesser, but
still sufficient for 1.5-1.75"/hr rates.=20=20

Overall, the scattered nature does not appear to have the most
ideal for persistent training but the overall coverage should
allow for some repeating nature to support a few streaks of 2-3"
though the morning hours. FFG values of 1.5"/hr and 2-3"/3hrs
suggest those areas of repeating have some potential for
exceedance and therefore localized flash flooding is considered
possible. Irrespective of morning flooding conditions, these
cells will further set the stage and likely reinforce the frontal
zone for later thunderstorm activity capable of additional flash
flooding later this evening/tonight. So even after this round of
activity it remains prudent to remain weather aware for the
remainder of the day+.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-p39qV44wsMUqMiZ95RQFsadOStERmD80Zqnnijyf-h3irtrB353nAtdj8s2SkWyxwxD= Z6_vWJc05axhNGqFsmNXBBk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39299328 39099205 38599098 38059051 37249066=20
36659145 36999326 37499455 38089501 38629494=20
39049460=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 132045
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0403
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...northeastern OK/southeastern KS into southeastern MO/northeastern AR/western TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132043Z - 140145Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage over
the next few hours over northern AR/southern MO with areas of
flash flooding becoming possible due to training. Hourly rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) are expected with 3-hr totals
over 3 inches.

Discussion...2030Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms
located from northern AR into southern MO. These cells were
located along and north of an outflow boundary that extended
roughly east to west from the MO Bootheel into northwestern AR.
Upstream, an MCV was identified in northeastern OK, between OWP
and BVO, tracking eastward. Strong to extreme MLCAPE of 3000 to
4000+ J/kg was estimated from central AR into northeastern OK,
with little to no inhibition via 20Z SPC mesoanalysis data. PWs
were also notable with values of 1.8 to 2.1 inches.

The outflow boundary is likely to continue to serve as a trigger
for new thunderstorm development over the next few hours. While
not particularly strong, low level southwesterly winds of 15-20 kt
(higher to west) will continue to meet with the rain-cooled
boundary, which was advancing southward at a steady pace near the
MS River, but nearly stationary back to the west. Mean steering
flow from west to east will promote training of cells, although
southward propagation is expected nearer to the MS River. Modestly
diffluent flow aloft is expected to assist with larger scale
ascent.

Upstream, forcing out ahead of the MCV may trigger rapid
convective development in northeastern OK over the next 30-60
minutes with growing cumulus and the early stages of convection
noted over Craig County along a convergence axis seen in visible
imagery. This region, relative to the advancing MCV, may serve as
a region of continued thunderstorm development with potential for
flash flooding given overlap with a region of the OK/MO/AR
tri-state region that has seen heavy rain over the past week.

Potential for 2 to 4 inch totals (isolated higher possible) will
exist across the broader MO/KS/AR/OK region into the MS Valley
through 02Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-1lrxzB8V2Kf-l_ZzBkN1uk2ebr3Nr5MIkJWZi4nRd9ysLZvGWn_y0g0eWlBug7Iti8E= PwsdXLe3v_n6Wrwk1cEik1A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37239513 37069300 36809083 36648956 36108888=20
35358902 34749071 34699310 35669594 36489635=20
36939606=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 140058
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-140515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0404
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...eastern TX Panhandle into western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140056Z - 140515Z

SUMMARY...A few slow moving thunderstorms may result in flash
flooding across portions of the eastern TX Panhandle into western
OK through 04Z. Localized totals of 2 to 4+ inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms was located over the
northeastern TX Panhandle at 0030Z was exhibiting slow movement
and backbuilding characteristics. The AMA/OUN RAOB and SPC
mesoanalysis data from 00Z showed that these cells were located
within an environment containing 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and within
the southern fringes of effective bulk shear values supportive of
organized cells. There is likely an established, albeit mesoscale,
cold pool just south of this cluster with 850 mb winds of 20-25 kt
from the S to SSW overrunning the cold pool. Some strengthening of
850 mb winds is expected over the next few hours with the typical
diurnal cycle which should act to maintain a low level overrunning
component across the eastern TX Panhandle.

Slow movement and training of cells within the small cluster is
expected to yield 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour with localized
totals of 2 to 4 inches (localized higher rates/totals possible)
through 05Z. A couple areas of flash flooding may develop as a
result with the threat lingering for at least another 1-2 hours. A
cold front to the north will eventually move through the northern
TX Panhandle by ~06Z, but it is unclear how long the pre-frontal
convection will last given potential for weakening prior to the
cold frontal passage due to upstream outflows from the north and
increasing lower level convective inhibition.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5zODFWNEPznCoBU17xxvn89gKBnnMACGkqrX7OFuYU2Ve56vueVg0geVW7WJddOy0jzY= q1qwdfXeU4bN11JA_7yU270$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36439985 35889925 34879944 34790097 35590150=20
36380134=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 140132
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0405
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
931 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...southwestern MO, southeastern KS, northwestern
AR, northeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140130Z - 140700Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding are expected to become likely
across portions of southeastern KS into southwestern
MO/northeastern OK and possibly northwestern AR. Training of
thunderstorms will result in hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
(locally higher) and additional totals over 4 inches on a
localized basis.

DISCUSSION...0100Z radar imagery across the Central Plains showed
a NE to SW oriented axis of thunderstorms aligned just ahead of a
cold front, advancing toward the southeast. Farther south, a few
pre-frontal areas of convection were noted over southern KS into
northern OK, east of I-35, as well as lingering convection north
of an outflow boundary in northwestern AR. Moderate to strong
instability was in place south of the cold front in eastern KS/OK
and into western OK, with stability increasing north of a remnant
outflow boundary that extended from north-central AR into
southeastern KS.

The cold front is forecast to steadily advance southeastward
through 06Z while scattered to numerous thunderstorms continue to
advance ahead of the boundary. These storms should maintain a
largely progressive motion with resultant outflow, although
embedded areas of training will be possible. Meanwhile, some
modest strengthening of the low level jet will likely occur over
OK over the next few hours (30 to 35 kt) with overrunning of newly
generated cold pools, and sufficient shear supporting slow cell
movement and upstream development at times to the south of the
cold frontal band. Pockets of high rain rates with hourly rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) will be likely and pockets of
total rainfall in excess of 4 inches possible. There is some
potential for overlap of heavy rain in southwestern MO, where 3 to
5+ inches of rain fell earlier on Saturday.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7qXk2Ehy3TSmqwGlRBicyAKK02C0ry7KkVeilLemh7ZJjzAOURf4xCG-ge4KsFBMrawD= dH44IJYriUg0J10yCG9UNkk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38819556 38469430 37709280 37099200 36199231=20
35809290 35169396 35109610 35859749 36569817=20
37279842 38069810 38789661=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 140647
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0406
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...southern Missouri, northern/western Arkansas,
south-central through eastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140645Z - 141145Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will linger for at least another
2-4 hours (through 10Z/5a central).

Discussion...Upstream convection that originated over Kansas and
Missouri earlier this evening has transitioned into an extensive,
forward propagating linear complex over the last couple hours
while reaching an axis extending from Shawnee, OK to Fayetteville,
AR to Rolla, MO. Rain rates in parts of this extensive complex
continue to exceed 1 inch/hr, with local peaks near 2 inch/hr east
of Tulsa and near/east of Springfield, MO per MRMS estimates. The
complex continues to migrate southeastward into an abundantly
moist/unstable airmass (featuring 2 inch PWs across Arkansas) that
will favor locally heavy rainfall for at least another 2-4 hours.

These rain rates will also fall on wet/inundated soils from prior
rainfall, with local spots in north-central Arkansas and
south-central Missouri continuing to exhibit FFGs near 0 (less
than 1 inch/hr) in a few areas where 2-6 inch rainfall totals have
occurred over the past 24 hours. Flash flooding is most likely to
occur in these areas in the short term.

Flash flood potential will also exist along the eastern 1/4 of
Oklahoma, where locally low FFGs (2 inch/hr or less) exists from
heavy rainfall that has occurred over the past 2-3 days. The
overall flash flood risk is appreciable in these areas, but may be
mitigated somewhat by the forward-propagating nature of the
convective complex. Still - spotty 2 inch/hr rain rates should
result in at least isolated excessive runoff problems through
10Z/5a central. Spotty flash flood potential also cannot be ruled
out along the I-35/US 177 corridor in south-central Oklahoma,
where local backbuilding along the upstream flank of the MCS
boosts rain rates there.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9akgsDyKdO-YSsGDsJnQpnNpYG9KXYi9QTU2_Xf7i6H5ajfTzKmtBdTqJKOxc8TiSBfx= yWj-vZWCz-7eYjN1P3fqFB4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38049183 37809119 36019181 34439289 33589406=20
33719574 33799697 33839711 34039764 35199739=20
35619640 36119532 36809381 37869273=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 140702
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-141000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0407
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...southwestern Tennessee and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140700Z - 141000Z

Summary...Areas of heavy rainfall are materializing along/just
north of I-40 in eastern Arkansas and should reach the Memphis, TN
metro area soon. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...An axis of heavier rainfall from deep convection has
materialized from near Beebe to West Memphis over the past hour or
so. The cells are likely occurring due to modest isentropic ascent
atop stable low-levels from prior convection this
afternoon/evening. Mesoanalyses depict 15-20 kt southwesterly
850mb flow originating from a pool of moderate instability over
southwestern Arkansas that seems to be supporting ongoing
convection. The convective axis (east-west; parallel to steering
flow aloft) is training, while near 2-inch PW values are
supporting efficient rain rates nearing 1.5 inches/hr northwest of
Forrest City.

Of concern is the potential for this training band of convection
to persist eastward into portions of Memphis Metro, which has
received an estimated 3-5 inches of rainfall in the past 12 hours.
FFG thresholds remain low from this prior rainfall (less than 1
inch/hr in spots), and with urban surfaces in line for additional
rainfall, flash flooding is possible. The persistence of this
cluster with eastward extent is in doubt, however, and cells
migrate farther away from the source region of surface-based
instability over southwestern Arkansas through the next 2-4 hours.
It is increasingly likely that 1 inch/hr rain rates could occur
into southwestern Tennessee that could pose some flash flood risk.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5LM3ha-X1t27O0jonuUIRmtvVGSzBDCDVtty2KvWDtkd1d2EHpOwKWXbPqDdb9l3IXHG= MY8_S8vyljkFCOjwERtyWWY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35529005 35428954 35208941 34928976 34929083=20
35039112 35299123 35459085=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 141222
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-141700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0408
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...Northern Texas... Adj. Far Southern Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141220Z - 141700Z

SUMMARY...Decaying MCS starting to have deep layer steering
favorable for downshear repeating of moderate to occasionally
heavy rainfall with quick 2-3" totals remaining possible.=20
Localized flash flooding remains possible especially in proximity
to urban centers.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a traditional
appearance to a decaying outflow/MCS crossing into Northern Texas
with localized convection along the leading outflow boundary
continuing to activate into an increasingly stabilizing
environment. Forward propagation and southerly flow had been
resulting in these back-sheared towers having a more south to
north orientation; however, recent veering noted in the VWP across
N TX shows inflow has adjusted and towers are starting to lay
oriented more west to east. If forward propagation was still a
driving mechanism, this would be less concerning, however, the
parent shortwave and divergence pattern has shifting eastward and
cold pool generation has become more limited, further slowing
southward advancement. As such, a short-term environment for
heavy rainfall/repeating elements is expected to arise and allow
for increasing residency of heavy rainfall production.=20=20

The weakening inflow still is very moist in the sub-cloud layer
with Tds in the low to mid 70s present and that continues through
depth for overall Total PWat values between 2-2.25". Instability
remains a limiting factor especially given a local minimum over
northeast TX; but still is just above 1000 J/kg in the upwind edge
over northern TX with the normal expected morning increase in
CINH. So it will remain a delicate balance for generative ascent
along the weakening leading edge of the outflow, but there is
sufficient evidence to suggest a few more hours. Given the ample
moisture, but weakening inflow/flux; rates of 1.5-2" are going to
be the norm, but a localized 2"+ total cannot be ruled out.=20
Residency with the moderate shield precipitation, should allow for
2-3" totals with a highly localized area of 3"+ not out of the
realm of possibility.=20

To add to increased potential for localized FF, the complex is
approaching the Dallas-Ft.Worth large metroplex with sizable
hydrophobic urban grounds; but also there is a small pocket of
lowered FFG values over Grayson/Collin county in Northern Texas
where 1 hr values are less than 2" and 3hr FFG values are
2-3"...further suggesting localized exceedance and incidents of
flash flooding is possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!71k8JwFyLWF2Q00q7Ltua38u764D1J6ebv4J7E_yxMbEnmwBEj8aONHNvg3BMUCy40oD= 5l2K1pzEQYCsVwCewRE1SfU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34099566 33769516 33229493 32659542 32519664=20
32669773 33139797 33789758 34059679 34089605=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 141650
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-142230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0409
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1249 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...Northern Ohio...Northwest Pennsylvania...Western
New York

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141650Z - 142230Z

SUMMARY...Intense bands of thunderstorms capable of 1-1.5"/hr with
localized short-term training elements due to storm scale/lake
interactions may result in localized flash flooding risk over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a very strong dynamics
environment setting up across the Great Lakes with a vorticity
center starting to swing the base of the longer-wave trof toward a
more neutral trough orientation. Downstream dual jet orientation
shows baroclinic leaf pattern over LP of MI, while streak of main
polar jet emerging out of central OH, providing a steadily
increasing divergence region across Lake Erie toward W Lake
Ontario at this time. Deep layer moisture has confluent, pooled
along a deep layer trough from NW OH/SE MI across the Ontario
Peninsula into the Upper St. Lawrence Valley. This axis of
moisture with PWats of 1.5-1.75" with solid Tds in the low to
mid-60s. While forward cell motions should limit residency, even
initial cells have been capable of 1"/hr per observations in SE MI
into Ontario, this may locally increase to 1.5", especially
along/downstream of the small inflection ahead of the shortwave
currently over N IND (combined with divergence pattern noted
above).

Instability is building across northern Ohio, NE PA in
increasingly cloud-free regions pre-cursory to the well defined
front. The strength of height-falls will allow for nearly
orthogonal low level convergence at the front with gently
confluent southwest to south-southeast boundary layer flow across
the Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. MUCAPEs of
1000-1500 J/kg are already observed across N OH, but are likely to
expand into W NY over the next few hours. Strong low-level
thermal boundaries due to lake interactions should help to
focus/corral convection (as noted in Ontario currently) that
should help for short-term repeating events. Combine this with
the divergence, slightly delayed forward propagation downshear of
the shortwave trough, and short-term repeating events may allow
for localized 1.5-2.5" totals in less than 2hrs, which is about
the same for hourly to 3hrly FFG values in the region. Obviously,
the potential increases in the larger urban zone along the Lakes
from Cleveland, Erie, Buffalo to Rochester. As such, isolated to
widely scattered incident or two of flash flooding will be
possible through the early afternoon into evening hours.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4TUUASk9PG9myKipsmWYSIZl70xdz_AAP6uMIqVzASlEHDecKI3X8qxBZMdbZC2EsV0y= nbgIV40F8QQ2B5i34hSOew0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44277600 43987536 43357551 42807628 41877769=20
41307906 40898138 40908331 41678349 41618226=20
42128060 42557953 42967910 43327915 43467867=20
43467830 43577696 43877651=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 142123
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0410
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
522 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...west-central to eastern TX/western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142121Z - 150300Z

Summary...Widely scattered instances of heavy rain with high rates
will pose an isolated flash flood risk across a broad swath of TX,
from the Edwards Plateau to southeastern TX and far western LA,
through the early overnight. However, a lack of cell organization
and focus is expected to greatly limit the coverage of potential
impacts, which will perhaps be greatest across urban or otherwise
flood prone locations.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery from 21Z showed a widely
scattered to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms
stretching from the Edwards Plateau to the Upper TX Coastal Plain
and Piney Woods region of eastern TX. Precipitable water values
were roughly 1.8 to 2.4 inches (lowest to west, highest to east)
or 1 to 2 standardized anomalies above the mean per recent GPS
data. MLCAPE ranged from 1500-2500 J/kg via 21Z SPC mesoanalysis
data. An effective cold front, a combination of remnant outflow
and the actual synoptic scale boundary, was seen stretching
roughly west to east across central TX with a general southward
motion. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms were advancing
northward from the Coastal Plain with varying degrees of
storm-induced outflow.

Much of TX contained a lack of stronger forcing aloft, sandwiched
between a low to mid-level ridge over the Gulf and over
southeastern AZ. The resulting deeper layer steering flow was
weak, less than 10 kt, which will be supportive of slow and
chaotic cell motions. Resulting storm outflows and new development
along the outflow will support cell mergers at times and small
cluster development. The moisture rich environment will support
over 1 inch of rain in 15 minutes and potential for 2 to 4 inches
of rain in an hour. Storm total rainfall through the early
overnight could reach 5 or 6 inches. While the coverage of these
higher rainfall totals is expected to remain isolated, overlap of
heavy rain with urban or other flood prone locations could result
in isolated flash flooding through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5W2IcnHmRLMLMs4PvFkrfL4zTAiDL3OC9Ie4PGJNKsZ7jISALjvGrltUD0RQcbpCONIN= 3QMX7TfD-RTLeKPL0M6Bc48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...MAF...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32479841 32289671 31959513 31329297 30459298=20
30049359 29529564 29579685 29629792 29739865=20
29510056 29980143 30600149 31400113 32090013=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 150149
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-150500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0411
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
948 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150147Z - 150500Z

SUMMARY...A localized, mainly urban flash flood threat will focus
across southeastern PA into portions of northern DE, central and
southern NJ. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches and 2 hour totals
near 2 inches will be possible, including the Philadelphia metro,
with a threat for flooding continuing until ~1 AM EDT (05Z).

DISCUSSION...0130Z radar imagery showed an intensifying cluster of thunderstorms over northeastern MD into southeastern PA, advancing
toward the ENE. This cluster was located along the nose of rapid
moisture return advancing northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast
with an estimated 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with the cells
along with PWs near 2 inches over the northern Chesapeake Bay.

While cell motions are fairly progressive at 20-30 kt toward the
NE, the cluster of thunderstorms may yield short term training and
repeating of cells which could allow for a quick 1 to 2 inches of
rain (within roughly 60-90 minutes). While 2 inches appears to be
a rough cap on rainfall totals over the next 2-3 hours, the
efficient rainfall rates will pose a threat for flash flooding
atop urban or otherwise poorly draining surfaces.

The flash flood threat associated with this cluster is expected to
advance toward the ENE and possibly be followed by a second line
of thunderstorms currently over south-central PA into the WV
Panhandle, although the intensity of this second round is in
question by the time it reaches southeastern PA/central to
southern NJ.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4EIvO-cR1SeZw0_1TIUI2vTO8HaFFb9zD6cgPp6v4B13ZPPmiVjDZguj8XaVWewyLFon= oh_ZaPa40CSTlrCOdqROiCs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40657426 40137413 39537465 39147581 39257623=20
39527657 40257578 40567507=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 150318
FFGMPD
TXZ000-150916-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0412
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1116 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150316Z - 150916Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues, with sensitive areas
in/near Austin/San Antonio and central Texas in line for locally
heavy rainfall and flash flood impacts.

Discussion...A focused band of convection continues to migrate
slowly southward and was oriented along an axis from Rocksprings
(north of Del Rio) to Temple as of 03Z. These cells were also
collocated with a slowly southward-moving cold front that was the
primary mechanism for ascent across the region. Along and ahead
of the front, abundant moisture/instability profiles (2.3+ PW
values and 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) were supporting efficient rainfall
processes beneath the convection. Meanwhile, kinematics aloft
were supporting extremely slow cell movement and occasional
merging of individual cells within the convective band. Where
mergers were most pronounced (i.e., near Temple recently), rain
rates have peaked into the 3-4 inch/hr range, with local 1-3
inch/hr rain rates elsewhere.

The ongoing scenario supporting heavy rainfall will evolve slowly
tonight, with flash flood potential driven both by 1) slow
southward movement of the aforementioned cold front and 2) local
convective evolution (i.e., mergers/propagation) within the
convective band. Over the next 1-4 hours, heavier rainfall will
likely materialize across portions of the Austin/San Antonio metro
areas (moving from north to south) along with sensitive areas of
the Hill Country. Rain rates should be high enough for at least
isolated flash flood potential in the most sensitive and urbanized
areas, with isolated/localized FFG exceedance also expected
elsewhere across the discussion area through 09Z/4a central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6eak20B1I8kfZGIZ9LCmjtN5BvHveVg0xrfhS9YSDGPXZ64tvRH_hf7y0ud47tSpDJT0= 51Ph0TgJflbpVchNuj4LYac$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32649473 32429446 31739458 30789543 30079633=20
29459655 28389767 27879970 28790063 30040150=20
30600101 31569827 31889735 32259612=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 150401
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-150759-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0413
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1159 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern New York into Vermont and New Hampshire

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150359Z - 150759Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be
completely ruled out as showers/thunderstorms move quickly through
the discussion area over the next 2-4 hours (through 08Z/4a
eastern).

Discussion...An axis of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
exists generally from near Rutland, VT through Albany and south of
Oneonta, NY. This convection was embedded in strong steering flow
aloft (over 40 knots) across the region, although orientation has
favored training and spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates at times. The
cells are being forced by strong mid-level waves upstream over
southern New York State and confluent, but strong low-level flow
across much of New England. Marginal instability was noted per
mesoanalyses, though abundant moisture (1.6+ PW) and forcing for
ascent were overcoming the weak buoyancy (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) to
support ongoing convection.

Persistence of this activity with northeastward extent is a bit
uncertain given even weaker buoyancy noted across much of New
England. Forcing (particularly mid-level ascent with stout
upstream waves over NY moving toward the region) should continue
to support a continued risk of heavy rainfall especially with any
persistent, deeper convection that can persist over the next 2-4
hours. FFGs are relatively high in eastern NY (over 2 inch/hr),
but lower some across Vermont and western New Hampshire (around 1
inch/hr in spots) suggesting that the greatest risk of excessive
runoff will exist across western New England. Flash flooding is
possible on an isolated basis through 08Z/4a eastern.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_pfaAmPPf7DP1vVB8IjVgcwCOu9CcnBU1Sl_pJA3JjZKj-iYwnqRMWD3yU79OFyv1yII= 6mpJOkIDyZw-WFeDARITqCY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45767044 44917024 43627088 42757214 42467306=20
43077398 44107322 45527118=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 150830
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151429-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0414
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of east Texas and Louisiana into coastal
Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150829Z - 151429Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expanding in
coverage in a pristine environment for heavy rainfall. Flash
flooding is possible on at least an isolated basis with this
activity.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered
convection expanding in coverage generally along the I-10 corridor
from south-central Louisiana (near Lafayette) eastward to the
Mississippi Gulf Coast. The storms were in a pristine airmass for
flash flooding, with 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, 2.2+ inch PW values and
weak steering flow aloft (generally less than 10-15 knots)
supporting slow and erratic storm motions with locally heavy
rainfall. Areas of 2.5 inch/hr rain rates were already being
estimated nea MRMS south of Baton Rouge. Forcing for ascent was
not obvious, through it appears that subtle convergence along a
weak boundary draped east-to-west across the region was a likely
culprit for convective development. Weak convective inhibition
was also noted within the pre-convective airmass, and a weak
mid-level wave was noted per objective analyses/RAP over
southeastern Louisiana in the past hour.

CAMs suggest that these convective trends will continue. As
coverage of storms increases, areas of mergers and slow/erratic
propagation can be expected. This will enable for more areas of
localized 3+ inch/hr rain rates to occur at times -- especially
along the I-10/12 corridor in south Louisiana and coastal
Mississippi. CAMs also depict potential for convective
development farther west and north into the Sabine River Valley
and I-20 in Shreveport, and a similar thermodynamic/kinematic
profile exists in those areas for slow-moving convection and
eventual heavy rain rates. A few instances of flash flooding are
expected - especially where these heavier downpours occur over
locally sensitive and/or urbanized areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-a4ogw0KcPv_KDwzky9XAA_qyGeo4fRMWsyd98I3Dw5W806ktFbjepzOSVfzSeq1b8MN= NKFkDu1kBuI3rZAwWR0hnmY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32529293 31949172 31249016 30848872 30438818=20
29698851 29118907 28969010 29159145 29529330=20
29729436 30649500 31859495 32359439=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 150909
FFGMPD
TXZ000-151507-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0415
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of central, south, and southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150907Z - 151507Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues, with locally
significant impacts possible given very high rain rates at times.

Discussion...Earlier frontal, deep convection across central Texas
has evolved into a forward-propagating linear complex that now
extends from near College Station westward to near Uvalde (west of
San Antonio). Radar data suggests that this complex has migrated
southward very slowly -- approximately 50 miles in 6 hours --
while producing widespread heavy rainfall and local impacts
especially near and just east of the I-35 corridor. MRMS Flash
responses are also peaked in these areas and in the Hill Country
west of Austin. Rainfall estimates of 2-8 inches of rainfall have
occurred beneath this complex, which isn't surprising given the
abundantly moist/unstable airmass along the leading edge of the
complex feeding individual updrafts (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE, over 2.3
inch PW).

Current convective trends give no indication of relenting flash
flood potential in the near term. Heavy rain rates have began to
impact more populated areas between Austin and San Antonio along
the I-35 corridor recently, and additional areas of potential
impacts are expected as the complex continues to migrate very
slowly southward. The linear complex should eventually reach south
of I-10 (from San Antonio eastward) over the next 2-4 hours.=20
Additional flash flood impacts could occur in populated areas
along the Rio Grande Valley (from Uvalde south to Laredo) through
the morning as well. While FFGs to increase to around 3 inch/hr
thresholds with southward extent in many areas south of I-10, the
ongoing complex has still breached those totals overnight on an
isolated to scattered basis. Additional cell mergers from
open-warm-sector convection south of the ongoing MCS could locally
enhance flash flood potential as well.

Flash flooding remains likely, with locally significant impacts
also expected.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5qbDFJTbGdRVi2lfauSnO9KV3wq0qNa_q35US0-AJf89VNuv7PJeCCUIaqRvs8blQ-NQ= JDkv1iS9ZBGOmyVTZS5TuG0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31549698 31199522 30219485 29509452 29079515=20
28709575 28329640 27839714 27229763 26909835=20
26569878 26709921 27159963 27760002 28970067=20
29870124 30859850=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 151240
FFGMPD
TXZ000-151700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0416
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...Deep South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151240Z - 151700Z

SUMMARY...Extreme rates to 2.5-3"/hr with training elements may
result in a narrow band of 3-5" totals and possible incidents of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Broad scale cyclonic circulation over north-central
Mexico continues to drive highly anomalous moisture flux off the
western Gulf with deep layer fetch resulting in 2.5"+ Total PWATs
though the bulk is below 850mb with CIRA LPW suggesting 1.25"+
values in an axis along the eastern flank of the deeper
circulation across Deep South Texas. Surface to boundary layer
inflow is deflected slight toward the east relative to the deep
layer south-southeasterly unidirectional flow above the boundary
layer to further enhance convergence to spark convergence.=20
Combine this with proximity to the western gradient of highly
unstable 2500 J/kg SBCAPEs, noting that the profile is very narrow
at least to 500mb. Warm cloud layer to 16Kft+ also suggests collision/coalescence efficient rainfall production with fairly
consistent potential for 2.5-3"/hr rates. Given the potential for
multiple cores of convection within the deep unidirectional flow,
there may be increased residency due to training/repeating
allowing for localized 3-5" totals over the next few hours. This
surge in convergence, instability will slacken a bit as the
low-level shortwave feature continues to slide northward through
the Lower Rio Grande Valley toward Maverick county and E Coahuila
state in the next few hours. As such, Hi-Res CAMs and
observational trends suggests only a few hours of ideal training,
but this is uncertain given how storms may have potential
feed-back to aid weak cold pool to maintain convergence.

Hydrologically, the area should train through very sandy/accepting
soil conditions where FFG values are 3-4"/hr and 4-5"/3hrs with
exception to the near Rio Grande Valley and urban centers there
in. So potential is greater there, but with those rates/training
and potential for some longer duration of training compared to
current Hi-Res CAM trends; incidents of flash flooding are
considered possible through the next few hours.=20

Also, will be watching the trends of instability advection further
westward closer to the main core of the low-level vorticity center
in Zapata into Webb county for potential of an additional
necessity for an MPD... but for now, that is too conditional to be
included with this area of concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4O9p1Xze1AFIE-SxSRF2S1BL5a4sjuMgy8-6V2TtcGtgemywntkO_TalCNmDLBZAe5EQ= vKOKRR5IstJoYXmS3dEKgj8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27639846 27269818 26259766 25949772 25989800=20
26109836 26689861 27409891=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 151414
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-152000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0417
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1013 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...Far East-Central TX...Northern & Eastern
LA...Southern MS...Southwest AL...Far Western FL Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151415Z - 152000Z

SUMMARY...Efficient rain-producing thunderstorms seeking out
remaining instability with rates of 2-2.5"/hr and localized 2-4"
are possible.=20

DISCUSSION...14z surface analysis depicts a weak surface
inflection across NE TX connected to a stalling front across N LA
that extends across central MS/AL as the overall large scale
pattern dries out across much of the Midwest/Tennessee Valley.=20
The strong surge of tropical moisture out of the West Gulf has
turned northeast and resulted in the initial WAA convective
complex across central to eastern LA this morning. This complex
has resulted in a weak cold pool/meso-high that has sharpened a
theta-E boundary from near KLFK to KPOE to KOPL into SE LA
northeast of KHUM. Southwest of the boundary surface Tds are in
the upper 70s to near 80 with CIRA LPW of 1.25" in the sfc to
850mb layer and overall total PWats reaching 2.25-2.5".=20=20
Increasing divergence in the right entrance to the 100kt eastward
moving jets streak over N AR/TN should help evacuate and maintain
updrafts into organized clusters. Deep layer steering is also
generally west to east though there is a broadening southeast
component across S MS/AL along the edge of the deeper layer ridge
in the Gulf. As such, training will be more likely further west
than south.

A lull in the southwesterly flow responding upstream pressure
falls has effectively stopped the WAA across central LA and
shifted it back to far east-central TX and N LA where strong
convective initiation has been seen with numerous overshooting
tops in Visible and rapidly cooling tops nearing -65 to -70C,
feeding off the pool of 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Hourly rates of
2-2.5"/hr occasionally increasing to 3"+ is possible with storm interaction/locally enhanced inflow. As mentioned above,
residency of heavy rainfall may be more likely across E TX/N LA
into W MS given the easterly flow and with slightly higher bulk
shear to maintain better cluster organization. Streaks of 2-4"
are likely with an isolated 4-5" not out of the realm of
possibility.

Weaker remaining convection exist across south-central MS but due
to the meso-high has started to propagate northeastward into the
remaining unstable air between the main front and the meso-high
itself; 1500-2000 J/kg should also help for strengthening
updrafts, but overall forcing to maintain them will be less, but
still highly efficient with rates of 2-2.5"/hr. Residency should
limit overall totals relative to upstream locations due to this
limited forcing, but spots of 2-3" quickly. The only location
with potential for some extended residency in this regime is near
the Gulf Coast where onshore flow/frictional convergence tends to
help redevelop or anchor updrafts for a few extra minutes, which
in this moisture regime could be an additional 1" quickly.=20

While hydrologically, the area has been fairly dry or average in
soil moisture, the nature of the extreme rainfall rates are likely
to overwhelm infiltration potential. As such, localized scattered
to widely scattered areas or training streaks are likely to
experience flash flooding through the early afternoon hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7oRlXLNgUuRPlXGb6lXfY9ltA7TTCAsCdbIaNWTSWuOHIPkhf4nCQrOxBq5V1hF2QlCR= xpoKT_T3MBOSreSU2u1KZCw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32889147 32638950 32218864 31818784 31498674=20
30398657 30158752 30088876 29528942 29749076=20
30789245 31179344 31349455 31879523 32429509=20
32809347=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 151451
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0418
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1050 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151450Z - 152045Z

SUMMARY...Potential for extreme rates and localized totals of 6"+
likely to induce incidents of flash flooding through this afternoon

DISCUSSION...A very moist environment exists coming out of the
Western Gulf into increasingly confluent mid-level flow across the
Lower MS Valley. CIRA LPW shows sfc to 850mb values over 1.25"
(Sfc Tds in the upper 70s, low 80s) with overall total values at
2.5". The surface front has stalled across central Texas Plain
well north of I-10 and as the right entrance to a 100 kt jet
streak leaves the area in a broad right entrance and the
mid-levels have responded in combination with latent heat release
in the mid-level to provide sufficient cyclogenesis across the
Heart of Texas. This is driving increased cyclonic flux
convergence out of the Western Gulf, further concentrating
moisture toward the 2.75" level toward midday.

The 850mb cyclone near Falls county has supported stronger cold
pool advancement across the Hill country into South-Central TX,
while stalling the convergence boundary near a weak meso-low near
K60R. The strong southerly onshore flow is accompanied by
sufficient heating in this narrow-skinny temperature profile to
still support 2000-2250 J/kg of MLCAPE across the area of concern.
The strength of updraft, directional convergence along a distinct
boundary and potentially along frictional convergence zone near
the coast; should increase overall convective coverage over the
next few hours. Rates of 2.5-3.5"/hr are probable through 3-4"/hr
rates are likely to be highly focused and fleeting in duration.=20=20
However, with the cyclone and deep layer flow from the
west-southwest, there could be training/repeating elements as well
resulting in localized totals of 3-5" and isolated spots over 6"
are probable as well. Some Hi-Res CAMs suggest even a highly
focused spot or two of 7-8". Confidence in any given location or
even reaching those values is not particularly high due to cell motions/interactions, but the elements are there for those
conditions to potentially occur. These rates and totals are
likely to induce flash flooding/rapid inundation conditions across
the area and any intersection with urban locations would have
considerable impacts.

While concerns are more towards the Coastal Plain, there is some
clearing starting to occur across northeast toward the Triangle of
TX where heavy rainfall has already fallen with earlier FF
conditions. Proximity to the deep layer cyclone near Falls county
would allow for potential for widely scattered cells. Deep
moisture will not be as concerning, but even additional spots of
1-3" remain a flash flooding risk and have been included in this
MPD area of concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_s-vKppuG8zgYZrlTKZub_BQjxRk_SEO5qE11jZHMuC0z6cRmUILrtQpN2Jk232-Wwoo= _pSYWnkeM7icfiNXnjbXpkg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32029588 31759474 31569377 31289259 30919196=20
30159193 29879358 29329447 28789547 28719633=20
29249688 29859730 30629744 31199731 31579713=20
31999649=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 151535
FFGMPD
TXZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0419
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1133 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...South-central to Deep South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151535Z - 152130Z

SUMMARY...Strong moisture flux convergence along the stalling
front to result in 2-3"/hr rates and localized 3-5" totals and
likely induce incidents of flash flooding. Additional N-S
training banding across Deep South Texas may result in localized
flash flooding there too.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E imagery loops depict the
earlier MCS outflow boundary has dropped into South-Central Texas
from northern Maverick to north of Cotulla with greatest arc near
Beeville before angling northwest to Victoria toward Belleville in
SE TX. The early morning western Gulf jet surge has recently
intersected the boundary with solid isentropic ascent and strong
moisture flux convergence to support localized intense rain rates
of 1.5-2"/hr, but VWP along with RADAR trends support the surge
has lifted through and is veering toward the northeast in response
to surface to mid-level pressure falls in the TX Triangle.=20
Concurrently, larger scale close low/trough over north central Old
Mexico remains strong and is backing low level wind across the Rio
Grande Valley is starting to respond there as well as a low-level
vorticity center slide along the river into S Maverick county and
points west in Mexico.

Core of deep layer moisture has reached the area with total PWat
values of 2.5-2.6" analyzed with CIRA LPW suggesting core of
moisture is below 850mb given broad area of 1.25"+ LPW values
across the river valley and into E Coahuila/N Nuevo Leon...with
sfc Tds reflecting that in the upper 70s and even low 80s across
South Texas and KCRP/KBRO sounding denoting saturation through
500mb. Soundings also confirm the surface heating is supporting
narrow skinny CAPEs in excess of 3000 J/kg. While there appears
to be a short-term lull along the west-east outflow boundary the
north-south confluence bands across south Texas remain solid and
will likely continue northward to intersect with the boundary.=20
Any forcing will support highly efficient rainfall production
given deep 15-16Kft warm cloud layer. Given ample moisture, those
areas of intermittently increased convergence will support rates
of 2-3"/hr. These are likely to be within the north-south
trending bands, but eventually merging with the west-east
boundary, increasing residency time of enhanced moisture flux
convergence to support localized spots of 3-5" totals through 21z.
Current trends suggest two main foci near the intersection with
the mid-level wave in Webb county, as well as, along the eastern
edge of the outflow boundary near Victoria and points west along
the boundary. As such, flash flooding is likely to occur in these
scattered to widely scattered areas of repeating or maximized
convergence.

Clearing skies north of the outflow boundary, but south of the
larger scale surface front may see sufficient insolation for
increased instability. Weaker but locally sufficient convergence
may result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms capable
of 1.5-2"/hr rates. Given the compromised soils from earlier
flash flooding, have included area where FFG values are below 1"
south of 30N.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4qP0l4kuC0FYiKyACLU0l6y0VAnK1G5k-5AVnnARMu_Zm3TmxG8e_Wzguu2F2nE1nXng= QtEotUqm-OLLBuZRXP6pg4w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29979796 29599731 29189706 28539668 28159661=20
27729707 26819729 26049704 25799726 25959785=20
26229865 26499914 26869938 27629976 28200031=20
28820061 29390027 29919933=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 151808
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-152330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0420
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...Southern Alabama...Southern Georgia...Adj.
Northern Florida...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151810Z - 152330Z

SUMMARY...Short-term repeat/training of efficient cells pose risk
of localized streaks of 2-3.5" mainly in sub-hourly bursts.=20
Localized flash flooding is considered possible.

DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of enhanced instability exists to
the south of the cold front across central GA into west-central
AL. Full insolation has brought temps into the mid to upper 80s
and with pooled, enhanced low level moisture, Tds in the upper 70s
is supporting 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE along and north of
narrowing axis of low-level warm-air advection coming from return
flow across the north-central Gulf into the increasingly confluent
deep layer flow across S AL/GA. This area remains on the south
(divergent side) of jet streak through the TN Valley and at the
far trailing edge of the exiting large scale trough across the
eastern U.S. It is the combination of the approaching cold front
and the southwesterly WAA becoming confluent to provide sufficient
deep layer convergence to break out scattered convection at this
time.

Overall, inflow is weak at less than 15kts through, but it is the
increase in confluence combined with the unidirectional steering
that will help to focus scattered cells for potential for
repeating over the next few hours. Given the moisture through
depth of to 2.25" and the updraft strength, rain rates up to
2-2.5" are likely with the strongest/broadest updrafts. This is
at the lower threshold of hourly FFG especially over south-central
AL and southwest GA, but add any repeating opportunities may
further help for exceedance in the 3hr range where FFG values are
around 3-3.5". Given all this, the potential for an isolated
spot or two of localized flash flooding/rapid inundation is
considered possible through the afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7_49fiWNJ83Sk4cgpItFMkPnios6OQ1xg_sa588_29LGOL-On3zGAu0wwBn0y5VQps4_= jdhaAv7Ll0bDHnPdCPVwzFs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32838804 32618643 32258492 31788334 31248232=20
30408259 30428359 30718482 31308651 32178821=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 152032
FFGMPD
FLZ000-160200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0421
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern/southeastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152030Z - 160200Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through the
remainder of the afternoon into the evening for the eastern and
southeastern FL Peninsula. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will
be possible from slow moving storms with urban flash flooding the
main concern.

DISCUSSION...A few areas of thunderstorms were ongoing as of 20Z
across eastern FL, with scattered coverage over Hendry into Palm
Beach and Broward counties and another region of cells farther
north over Putnam, Flagler and Volusia counties. Peak MRMS rain
rates have been in the 1 to 2 inch range but the environment is
supportive of higher rates. 20Z SPC mesoanalysis showed MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg and precipitable water values of 1.9 to 2.2 inches
over the eastern half of the Peninsula. FL was located between a
low to mid-level ridge located over the central Gulf and another
over the Sargasso Sea, resulting in weak steering flow of 5 to 15
kt over the region (highest to the north).

Visible imagery showed growing cumulus over central FL, between
the two ongoing regions of thunderstorms referenced above with low
level westerly flow evident in imagery loops. Additional
convective development is likely over the central to eastern
Peninsula over the next couple of hours with outflow and sea
breeze boundaries acting as foci for lingering thunderstorms over
the southeastern portion of FL. 10-15 kt of 925-850 mb flow will
tend to focus thunderstorms along the eastern coast, but
organization of cells will be lacking due to insufficient shear
aloft.

The greatest concern for flash flooding will be from slow cell
movement with hourly rainfall peaking in the 2 to 3 inch per hour
range, though locally in excess of 3 inches in an hour cannot be
ruled out. Sub-hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in 15-30 minutes
will also be possible. These higher rates could result in urban
flash flooding, although the coverage of these higher rates is
likely to remain isolated through the evening. Thunderstorms
should dissipate shortly after sunset with the stabilization of
the boundary layer.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7YpgEEg3iT2VVGWNO-JSxGpPFxSzL1WOxmrzfRk5yEfA3vuaY102VWsqgVzRQQbl2aue= f1g0mKsDo-CC_qyrPzVn1Nk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29418099 28838052 28048015 26837983 25887993=20
25508013 25488050 25918062 26558047 27278072=20
27648094 28158123 28858151 29228151=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 152157
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-160200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0422
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...east-central TX into western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152155Z - 160200Z

SUMMARY...Isolated areas of flash flooding will remain possible
over the next 3-4 hours across east-central TX into portions of
western LA. Slow moving areas of heavy rain will be capable of
producing 2 to 4 in/hr rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 2130Z showed that a convectively
enhanced vorticity max was located over the southern Piney Woods
region of eastern TX while a number of weaker MCV-like features
were located eastward into portions of central LA. Cloud tops have
warmed significantly from southeastern TX into southwestern LA
over the past 3 hours, but localized new development south of the
DFW Metroplex as well as along and east of I-45, has continued to
maintain at least an isolated flash flood threat from spotty
hourly rainfall of 2 to 4 inches (per MRMS estimates).

A high moisture environment with PWs of 2.1 to 2.5 inches and
lingering MLCAPE of about 500 to 1000 J/kg will continue to
support localized slow moving showers/thunderstorms over the next
few hours. Mean cell motions are expected to be slowest (<10 kt)
north of a 3T5 to CLL to LFK line. While there is likely some
larger scale support with placement within the right-entrance
region of an upper jet over OK/KS, the forcing for ascent appears
relatively light through 01Z and should taper off after sunset.

Farther south, the location of an outflow boundary, analyzed from
Galveston Bay to near OPL in south-central LA at 21Z, may become a
focus for additional convective development after sunset as low
level convergence along an existing CAPE gradient potentially
ignites thunderstorms within the moist/unstable environment. Mean
southwesterly flow oriented parallel to the forecast low level
convergence axis could result in training, should this setup
occur, although confidence in the occurrence and timing of this
scenario is lower than average at this time despite relative
consistency in the HRRR.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6sOcpubOtJuEC70VFCY2kNRcWZ2GqAUoKUJjqpJoi-l7vyNI9XgwzkexymqqQv7nhK5E= -Qy4upZq4xyJT2NyMbirxa4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32609446 32499325 32239238 31689205 30329247=20
29639327 29299435 29869544 30459580 30909679=20
31359755 31979765 32389696=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 152254
FFGMPD
TXZ000-160415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0423
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
653 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152252Z - 160415Z

SUMMARY...Potential for higher end rainfall across South Texas
containing hourly rainfall of 2 to 4 inches late this
evening/early overnight. There is the potential for 6+ inches of
rain over the next 4-6 hours.

DISCUSSION...2230Z visible satellite imagery helped infer a
surface low over northern Nuevo Leon, associated with a larger
scale tropical disturbance being monitored by the NHC. The
environment over southern Texas contained tropical moisture with
PWs of at least 2.3 to 2.4 inches (18Z CRP/BRO soundings) with wet
bulb zero heights of 15.5 kft, supportive of warm rain processes
and high rainfall rates over 3 inches per hour.

RAP forecast guidance showed the surface low, or at least the low
to mid-level reflection of the low only slowly edging east over
the next 6 hours. Radar imagery from 2230Z showed a north-south
oriented axis of thunderstorms over Jim Hogg and Starr counties,
out ahead of a mesoscale circulation east of the main surface low.
A gauge observation from the Wunderground network showed this band
produced 1.5 inches of rain in 15 minutes as it passed through Rio
Grande City.

The current band of heavy rain is forecast to slowly move east
over the next 1-2 hours, followed by possible
reorganization/reformation with continued training, The greatest
threat for heavy rain will exist near the Rio Grande over Zapata,
Starr and Hidalgo counties, northward into interior portions of
South Texas. Additional concerns for higher end rainfall exist
near a remnant outflow boundary over Corpus Christi Bay,
southwestward to just south of Falfurrias. Low level convergence
to the east of the Mexican circulation will maintain a higher end
threat for flash flooding over portions of South Texas as training
allows for hourly rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches. Recent hires
guidance suggests the flash flood threat stays just west of
Cameron County through at least 04Z, but a lower probability
threat for flash flooding will still exist into the
Harlingen/Brownsville metro should the low level convective axis
shift farther east than forecast by the models.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5CFLE-hraRrMqzyBVaiHfuSy6vPt8g7xTlOAVPariY6ZEj_PHRfjBxzyTzpclAeSe_Su= gK4fSGCnmvl3DD_1zVFRbv4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28619730 28509703 28179683 27759687 27249708=20
26819711 26149705 25709724 25689771 25829836=20
26349922 27059955 27659937 28089849 28609755=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 160203
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-160700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0424
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1002 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...Upper TX Coast into southwestern/south-central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160201Z - 160700Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible from the upper
TX coast into southwestern/south-central LA through 07Z. Hourly
rainfall could exceed 3 inches on a localized basis.

DISCUSSION...0140Z radar imagery showed a narrow axis of showers
and thunderstorms that extended from eastern Jackson County to
Cameron Parish, and just north toward I-10 in southwestern LA,
located along a remnant outflow boundary that stretched from the
upper TX coast into southern LA. MLCAPE was 500-1000 J/kg as
sampled by the 00Z LCH sounding and as seen in RAP analysis data
and the SPC mesoanalysis along the Gulf Coast and outflow
boundary, with notable MLCIN to its north from southeastern TX
into central LA. PWs along the Gulf Coast were 2.3 to 2.5 inches
via sounding and GPS data from 00Z.

Low level convergence along this boundary will likely continue to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms beneath modest diffluence/divergence aloft. Mean steering flow oriented roughly
parallel to the boundary and continued low level inflow from the
northern Gulf are expected to sustain a localized flash flood
threat for several more hours. There is some short term model
support for the outflow boundary to lift slightly northward which
could allow flash flood potential to reach the I-10 corridor later
in the night (06Z time frame). Given proximity to higher FFG
values and swamp/marsh in southwestern LA, the main flash flood
concern will be across urban areas with isolated potential for 3
to 6 inches through 07Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5sDaJyOjasyxqhuJ2ZwvxW4--UMlaqXWwaPopwU4Cf2MsFezSQFfH9AyzhhsxUzrDY53= a1INktvw8E7aMy9RBiDLD0k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30719210 30489144 30049135 29859184 29689291=20
29349393 28899579 29479609 30249433 30579313=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 160727
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161325-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0425
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Louisiana into
central Mississippi and a small part of east Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160725Z - 161325Z

Summary...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are increasing in
coverage over central Louisiana and should continue to do so
throughout the discussion area. Flash flooding is likely given
antecedent conditions over the past 24 hours.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an uptick in
convective coverage across central Louisiana between Alexandria
and Winnfield, with more isolated activity noted across
southwestern Mississippi. The convection was developing in
response to increasing convergence on the northern end of enhanced
850mb flow, which has reached ~20 knots or so per mesoanalyses and
models. The storms are in an abundantly moist environment (2-2.4
inch PW values) supporting efficient rainfall rates beneath
heavier activity. Meanwhile, 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE (peak over
Louisiana) is proving sufficient for deep convective development.=20
1 inch/hr rain rates were already noted just northwest of
Alexandria recently (per MRMS).

Convective trends should continue through the morning hours.=20
850mb flow is progged to increase to 30 kt over south-central
Louisiana, further enhancing convergence along a zone generally
parallel to and in between the I-20 and US 84 corridors. This
orientation will allow for training/repeating -- some occurring in
areas that have already experienced 2-8 inches of rainfall over
the past 24 hours. FFG thresholds are near zero in areas of
Louisiana that have experienced the highest rainfall totals
recently, and increase to around 1-2 inches/hr across central
Mississippi. The scenario supports a high likelihood of
occasional FFG exceedance as convective coverage continues to
expand through 13Z/8a central. Flash flooding is likely.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-kYmckdNBB9tvK-MzwxtmDCgSkyo0D1f0y0eB7cC_9tWPbSMqLXFIzEEW3dEL1WQPASu= F0fDgqO9LC0pmMZlRlZJWKs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33098937 32398861 31688883 30889048 30529266=20
31029453 31669462 32029432 32389358 32819185=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 160925
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-161524-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0426
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
525 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and surrounding
areas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160924Z - 161524Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms initially over Gulf Waters were
beginning to move/develop northward toward land areas along the
Texas Coast. These trends should continue over the next 3-6
hours, with flash flood potential increasing especially over
sensitive and urbanized areas.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a gradual, yet
slow increase in convection over land areas along the Texas Coast
-- particularly near Port Arthur, Port Lavaca, and southwest of
Galveston. Earlier convection over these areas has departed, and
weak southerly low-level flow (10-15 knots per mesoanalyses) was
enabling a gradual northward development of abundantly
moist/unstable air (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 2.5 inch PW) into more of
southeast Texas with time. These moisture values and weak
low-level confluence (bolstered by increasing 850mb flow over the
western Gulf) will support increasing convective coverage over
time, with slow storm motions and favorable thermodynamics
fostering occasional rain rates to 3 inches/hr at times through
15Z/10a central.

These rain rates will fall over areas that have been wet recently,
with widespread 2-5 inch rainfall totals over the past 24 hours
resulting in lowered FFG thresholds (close to zero near Corpus
Christi and Paladios - closer to 1-1.5 inch/hr elsewhere). Storms
will have potential to readily exceed FFG in many areas, and urban
flash flooding is a possibility as storms close in on Houston
Metro later this morning. Flash flooding is likely across the
entire discussion area in this scenario, and significant impacts
cannot be completely ruled out.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-JHUnBqqBwKmO9A3glvnr0Hu9RyBxrE7vsjZShItze-10oyvEwFxxZsx83nTMT95aP8k= oL00WkAqu2dcfBLXpoJUac4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30409437 30239377 29739389 29319466 28689567=20
28119673 27399725 26789750 26869791 27489801=20
28389773 29149709 29839587=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 161025
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-161623-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0427
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southeast TX & Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161023Z - 161623Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are moving into the
region from the southwest. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local
amounts to 6" are possible, which would lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...An effective front/thermal boundary is draped near
and south of I-10/I-12 in Louisiana. Precipitable water values
are 2.4-2.5" per GPS data. An ML CAPE gradient exists across the
region, with 500-1500 J/kg shown by SPC mesoanalyses. Effective
bulk shear of 25-30 kts exists, enough to organize convection. An
offshore pocket of convection has created some CIN offshore
Cameron, but the thunderstorm band appears to be less
solid/cohesive as of late on radar imagery. Aloft, there's some
indication that a weak shortwave is moving across OK and northern
TX on water vapor imagery.

There is more than the usual uncertainty in this region regarding
heavy rain prospects. The wettest guidance shows 7-10" during the
next six hours across Acadiana, but that guidance also has no
offshore convection. Recent HRRR runs show nothing at all, but
radar trends are not their friend. Given the ingredients, hourly
rain amounts to 3" and local totals to 6" are considered possible.
While portions of this region have been spared heavy rainfall,
the expected magnitude would exceed the highest flash flood
guidance in the region and be a problem in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Llw8uldJC6bsS3V3qjDBbt9ZVA1NV_nROjsvIYIVVCPiUzYH7zkqwSb07qcDq2N5_Ud= WCY62Yi8af9I8tEws9erwSA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31049193 31029165 30269144 29519159 29489211=20
29719327 29639405 30369455 30909388=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 161045
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161642-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0428
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161042Z - 161642Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to intensify and
grow in number between Slidell LA, portions of southern MS, and
Mobile Bay AL. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local amounts to 6"
are possible, which could lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are growing in coverage
across and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Precipitable
water values are 1.8-2.4" per GPS data. An ML CAPE gradient
exists across the region, with a pocket of 1500 J/kg just offshore
Mobile Bay. Effective bulk shear is 25-35 kts, which is leading
to some convective organization.

The mesoscale guidance appears more sparse with convective
coverage than seen in recent radar imagery. Even so, there are
indications in the guidance of increasing coverage with time,
which is also implied in the 06z GFS-based Galvez-Davison index
values rising through the morning and early afternoon. Confluence
at 850 hPa also increases with time. In this environment, hourly
rain amounts to 3" with local amounts of 6" are possible, which
would be most problematic in urban areas and locations with
partially saturated soils. Used the possible category due to the
uncertainty caused by the seemingly dry
mesoscale QPF guidance.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-jB5ERRAFDqfB5F4zSMDKPv2KroCdAEV4lS30l_zr9ai7H3eiONSe1yH8VaJkjY4osh-= ei0a0JJQElHGLNovkK-jg7M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31648824 31218649 30468625 30148705 29888831=20
28968882 28888972 29149094 29919169 30939084=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 161224
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161621-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0429
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...Central LA & Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161221Z - 161621Z

Summary...Scattered pockets of flash flooding should continue for
the next several hours, with hourly amounts to 3" and local totals
to 6" remaining possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms across central LA continue
to show training character as of late, with hourly amounts to 3"
indicated in radar estimates across isolated spots of Vernon and
Rapides Parishes. This is occurring north of a weak thermal
boundary returning northward across southern LA. Despite the
precipitation coverage, which should erode the instability to some
degree, the instability pool appears to have nudged upward
recently. Precipitable water values of 2.4-2.6" exists here per
GPS data. Effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts is helping to
organize the convection. A broad shortwave over portions of OK &
AR appears to be aiding diffluence aloft.

The convective area has been edging southward this morning, which
is in opposition to the instability getting farther north, so
would think this southward nudge would slow down or stop in the
short term, assuming the slight increase an instability continues.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" and addition local totals to 6" remain
possible. Over increasingly saturated soils and urban areas,
scattered spots of flash flooding are expected.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7xVegST9zVeoB1FxmkKeS9WsfVdndTRQMvB-BFk1VNsRUKcXlTv1MgU0HLo9coPHI-sA= MA1rpuNJrTuVejV1GcA3Zm8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31779207 31559082 31089039 30729110 30789366=20
31719369=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 161444
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-162042-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0430
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1043 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...in and near the Middle & Upper TX coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161442Z - 162042Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms near and northeast of newly
designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One are capable of producing
hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional local totals to 6".=20
This would lead to scattered instances of flash flooding over
saturating soils.

Discussion...The combination of the low pressure center associated
with Potential Tropical Cyclone One and a coastal front slowly
moving inland are helping to focus showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall presently inland of the Middle and Upper TX Coast.=20 Precipitable water values are 2.3-2.8" per GPS data. ML CAPE is
500-1500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is near 25 kts.

Despite the relative current dearth of heavy rainfall along the
coast, the 06z HREF/REFS guidance shows a decently high
probability of 5" in the 15z-21z period near the Upper TX Coast.
SPC mesoanalyses have shown some west to northwest shift of the
instability pool this morning, which would allow convection to
form further into the interior of Southeast TX closer to the
synoptic scale stationary front. Given the moisture available,
hourly amounts to 3" with additional local totals to 6" make
sense. Soils are getting increasingly saturated by recent
rainfall. However, the amount coverage is uncertain so have used
the possible tag.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8IIAi4ibNAFF9NVjRBXPAsdWa4rv4kz1CRqXHhHNhZM88-nQp0YbsmTpv5_rK8IMsi_D= Li5OxFLOhvvsjuTj17uz2CY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31339426 31089353 30169373 29369384 28479589=20
27389695 25789696 25659758 25899801 26879819=20
27959917 29119877 29959771 30939573=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 161621
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-162218-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0431
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1219 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161618Z - 162218Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are showing backbuilding and
training character. Hourly rain amounts to 4" with additional
local totals to 7" would cause flash flooding in urban areas and
increasingly saturated soils.

Discussion...A positively tilted upper level trough extending
southwest from WI along with a leading shortwave extending from
western TN across AR into the Red River Valley of the South are
allowing for a broad area of diffluence near the Central Gulf
Coast. Potential Tropical Cyclone One in southern TX is providing
a source of high moisture upstream, with precipitable water values
of 2-2.6" lying across the area. Confluent flow at 850 hPa, a
slowly returning coastal front, and an instability gradient are
providing foci for thunderstorm complexes with heavy rainfall from
Central LA into southern MS, with additional isolated convective
clusters occasionally seen near the AL/FL Panhandle border. ML
CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg lies nearby and upstream to the southwest.

The guidance indicates an general east-southeast movement to the
convection as the 850 hPa confluent axis drifts southeast with
time, which would increasingly take thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall increasingly into portions of the FL Panhandle. Some
activity in western and central LA could move northward as
instability moves northward towards the synoptic scale front.=20
This would be a special problem for locations in central LA where
local totals of 12"+ have been estimated per radar imagery since
Sunday morning. Soils are increasingly saturated over portions of
LA, southern MS, and southernmost AL, which should lead to a
further incidence of flash flooding. Training and backbuilding
has occasionally led to 4" an hour radar estimates...additional
local totals to 7" appear possible. This should continue to lead
to widely scattered to scattered flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7EavgRAoPUfev67g5_q1NnT18As_Lxpds2miVry6hSvk6Rq6_r9mSNI6RTvVfS6i5G9l= gweOytseM73K_PChBIjWUgk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32229363 32079203 31789055 31938945 31848859=20
31508733 30778561 30048574 30248676 30058847=20
29298879 28818927 29178979 28959044 28979067=20
29219136 29429200 29479262 29679322 29669377=20
29739386 30489379 31049371 31249375 32019411=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 161940
FFGMPD
LAZ000-162223-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0432
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...Portions of South-Central and Southeast Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161938Z - 162223Z

Summary...A persistent band of heavy rain will continue to develop
near the Louisiana I-10 corridor from Lafayette, to Baton Rouge,
to Hammond, and will produce intense rainfall rates on the order
of 2 to 4 inches per hour at times. This will raise the risk of
locally significant flash flooding, particularly between 2:45 PM
and 5:00 PM CDT.

Discussion...A training convective rain band has rapidly developed
in the last hour from LFT-BTR-HDC and seems likely to persist for
at least the next couple hours. A weak cold pool from earlier
convection near the MS-LA border seems to be sufficient to
establish northerly surface winds at OPL and HZR with temperatures
falling into the mid-70s. Meanwhile, the warm sector to the south
remains unstable with southwesterly inflow. The result has been a
local maximum in 1000-900mb frontogenesis. In a moderately
unstable environment with PWs well over 2 inches, conditions are
set for some consolidation and training of the aforementioned
convective rain band. The lack of lightning and 30 dBZ echo tops
remaining below the -10C level are suggestive of highly efficient
warm rain processes.

Given the environment, rain rates in excess of 2 inches per hour
are likely in locations where the rain band has persistence, and
could reach 3-4 inches per hour. Already MRMS estimates are
showing 15-minute rates as high as 1 inch. Rain rates this high
would be likely to lead to the rapid development of flash
flooding, particularly in urban areas, and if sustained long
enough in vulnerable locations, could lead to significant flash
flooding.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7CdZXqhWSgMoTNTmGs0KdFxLuFXxsUA1fbFThleECzvkBczlwOw89M5fzF0SE9d-Fnzx= JBUtjT9i7X7K7AeAjxoSVWU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30909053 30489029 30249103 30109183 30119230=20
30519235 30759158=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 170904
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-171502-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0433
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170902Z - 171502Z

Summary...A cluster of thunderstorms associated with Potential
Tropical Cyclone One has begun to affect areas west of Galveston
with 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates. Flash flooding is likely, and a
conditional risk of urban impacts exists for Houston metro
beginning at around 0930-1000Z (430-5a central).

Discussion...Southerly low-level wind fields have increased
substantially on the eastern flank of PTC 1 curently centered near
Corpus Christi. This has enabled strengthening convergence over
the western Gulf, with a notable increase in shower/thunderstorm
activity across the region. A small cluster of storms has made
landfall in parts of Brazoria and Galveston counties. These cells
were moving slowly northward while producing 2.5 inch/hr rain
rates in an abundantly moist and unstable environment (~2.5 inch
PW values). Instability decreases with inland extent, but there
is some risk that these rain rates make it into more populated
areas of the Houston Metro area over the next couple hours. Flash
flooding is likely across portions of Brazoria and Galveston
Counties especially if the cluster persists and/or backbuilds over
the same areas and multiple hours of higher rain rates materialize
through 15Z/10a central. Other areas of deep convection may
approach the Texas Coast from the center of PTC 1 northeastward
through the morning as well.

Local FFGs are in the 1.5-2.5 inch/hr range (locally lower) and
should be readily exceeded where rainfall is most persistent.=20
Flash flood is likely, and the risk of significant impacts will
increase substantially with any local persistence and/or impacts
to urbna areas this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!86wCTIvWSmsQCERx8kK9YAeatTBNBTQyGcdJXBwvhWm5Z_Xqiueb8GEIm8h0x-BvBj2W= jp-iOy81gtP8-L8AnH4wzl0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30539409 30279361 29819380 29349465 28839567=20
28429647 28949658 29629603 30179517=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 170910
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-171502-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0433
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
509 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170902Z - 171502Z

Summary...A cluster of thunderstorms associated with Potential
Tropical Cyclone One has begun to affect areas west of Galveston
with 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates. Flash flooding is likely, and a
conditional risk of urban impacts exists for Houston metro
beginning at around 0930-1000Z (430-5a central).

Discussion...Southerly low-level wind fields have increased
substantially on the eastern flank of PTC 1 currently centered
near Corpus Christi. This has enabled strengthening convergence
over the western Gulf, with a notable increase in
shower/thunderstorm activity across the region. A small cluster
of storms has made landfall in parts of Brazoria and Galveston
counties. These cells were moving slowly northward while
producing 2.5 inch/hr rain rates in an abundantly moist and
unstable environment (~2.5 inch PW values). Instability decreases
with inland extent, but there is some risk that these rain rates
make it into more populated areas of the Houston Metro area over
the next couple hours. Flash flooding is likely across portions
of Brazoria and Galveston Counties especially if the cluster
persists and/or backbuilds over the same areas and multiple hours
of higher rain rates materialize through 15Z/10a central. Other
areas of deep convection may approach the Texas Coast from the
center of PTC 1 northeastward through the morning as well.

Local FFGs are in the 1.5-2.5 inch/hr range (locally lower) and
should be readily exceeded where rainfall is most persistent.=20
Flash flood is likely, and the risk of significant impacts will
increase substantially with any local persistence and/or impacts
to urban areas this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5-Ri1DyV8j7-yak-Sq_jbi1KJGnp_0Giw0nECsnMcaJ6nkdT8nki5hhs-4O2jXZJ8eUX= 4KlhfT1kacspvcJjGmP4cvI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30539409 30279361 29819380 29349465 28839567=20
28429647 28949658 29629603 30179517=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 171048
FFGMPD
ILZ000-IAZ000-171646-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0434
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...in and near portions of IA & IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171046Z - 171646Z

Summary...A convective complex with heavy rainfall is expected to
continue moving east-southeast over partially saturated soils and
urban areas in IA. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" could lead to
flash flooding.

Discussion...An evolved convective complex is moving
east-southeast near 40 kts, currently aligned along its vector of
forward propagation, across portions of IA with hourly rain
amounts up to 3", nearly double the three hourly flash flood
guidance. The system is occurring within a warm advection regime
with precipitable water values ~1.5", effective bulk shear near 60
kts, and a MU CAPE pool upstream of 1000+ J/kg which is continuing
to build northward. Behind the LEWP/QLCS structure is some
attempt at backbuilding downstream (east-southeast) of a
strengthening cyclone complex in NE which is on the strong side of
June climatology, with central pressures just under 990 hPa.

The REFS guidance is too slow, and the HREF guidance a hair too
far north with this convective complex. While the complex itself
should evolve into one that is forward propagating, both mesoscale
ensemble guidance runs indicate practically no break between the
current elevated thunderstorm activity and new activity which
occurs once CIN weakens and convection becomes more surface based,
which is expected around midday. The locations unlucky enough to
be near where this transition occurs would get two quick rounds of
heavy rainfall back to back, somewhere across the northern IL.=20
While this occurs, a warm front should continue moving east across
the area. As flash flood guidance is low to modest after a long,
intermittent period of heavy rains, flash flooding is possible
both in the short term and whenever convection reorganizes from
elevated to surface based, which should be around the tail
end/horizon of the MPD period. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" could lead to flash flooding where soils are
partially saturated and over urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7xSRUTNBLhJX-hewXTAc71mZVzx-unmgf1UeSNHl88wcxd0KaFZKVTbpSTtktWGJFL_y= xStm4Wa0NdzAjZgvdiJ8oUk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...FSD...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43199399 42429238 41508885 39968924 40229060=20
40899226 42479551 42649453=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 171334
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-171932-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0435
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...in and near South-Central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171332Z - 171932Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are growing in coverage as
they enter an area of partially saturated soils. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A shortwave is moving through portions of AL, MS, and
AL presently, enhancing difluence aloft near southern AL. This
appears to be leading to a convective uptick in this area, with
thunderstorms moving northeast at 15-20 kts appearing to be
focused along an incoming coastal front/gulf warmth and moisture
surge. Precipitable water values are 1.9-2.2" per GPS data. ML
CAPE of is ~1500 J/kg, which is increasing and migrating north as
of late. Effective bulk shear of 25 kts could organize storms.

Flash flood guidance is modest across central AL at the present
time. The available ingredients support hourly rain amounts to
2.5" which would breach the 3 hourly flash flood guidance on an
isolated to widely scattered basis and be a problem for urban
areas. Flash flooding is possible into this afternoon.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4fz4kksawAwBR1t_WoCBBKkp7qaK8L1Ii7LaiEjfkcSP_yxCBONpFxNQ_aQSx30Gj_9J= XQOsSfnjt2ztRLAdl3dFmKw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33218747 33028549 32728511 31678520 30888667=20
31268907 32228931 33018857=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 171642
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-172239-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0436
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern IA & central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171639Z - 172239Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rain continue to develop across
portions of eastern IA and western IL. With time, hourly rain
amounts are expected to rise towards 2.5", with additional totals
to 5" expected which would support at least scattered occurrences
of flash flooding.

Discussion...Elevated thunderstorms continue to develop and
attempt to train across portions of eastern IA and western IL to
the east of a frontal wave located near the western IA/MO border
within confluent 850 hPa flow. Difluence aloft is being aided by
a deep layer/occluded cyclone across MN. Precipitable water
values are 1.3-1.8" per GPS data. ML CAPE is growing across
southern IA and northern MO, with an instability gradient setting
up across southeast IA through northeast MO into central IL.=20
Effective bulk shear is 50-75 kts.

Sometime soon, CIN should erode and convection should become more
surface based and grow in intensity and from somewhere near
IL/IA/MO border junction east-southeast across central IL.=20
Portions of this area have received 1-5" of rainfall today and
soils were partially saturated before today's rains. The
mesoscale guidance shows a stronger signal that it did earlier
this morning for the upcoming heavy rainfall. Hourly rain amounts
should return back to 2.5", with additional local totals to 5"
expected. This should bring overall rain totals for today up to
5-10" locally. Additional flash flooding is anticipated, which
would be at least scattered in nature over saturating soils and
urban areas.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_r2xqZmYh0UQqj4k2_vYHbfAmwcqa_vOsePLlHTKne6N2Ubt1Pxex-Ox75TH8l5_L1Uk= h_XOw3qUx48Mr_Mj7S_Kv5g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41769111 41538983 40838718 40228681 38928788=20
38968962 39949185 41179230=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 171940
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-180130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0437
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Mogollon Rim and Southeast Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171938Z - 180130Z

Summary...Terrain driven thunderstorms will continue to develop on
the north side of the Mogollon Rim to the Mogollon Mountains of
southwest New Mexico and terrain across southeast Arizona through
the rest of the afternoon. Hourly rainfall of half to one inch per
hour could cause localized flash flooding, particularly for urban
areas and burn scars.

Discussion...Thunderstorms are developing on terrain in
central/southeastern AZ into far southwest NM. Above normal
moisture is from the Pacific/Sea of Cortez with PW generally 2 to
3 sigma above normal. Light westerly deep layer flow should allow
some shear to enable persistence of the activity. Localized
rainfall of 0.4"/hr have been estimated from regional radars.
Given some instability (generally 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) upscale growth
and rate over half and inch per hour can be expected. This would
cause issues in sensitive areas such as burn scars and urban areas.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs highlight the Mogollon Rim area and
southeast AZ through the Tucson metro area through the early
evening with up to 1.5" rainfall totals. Flash flooding is
considered possible through this evening.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4nRikn0gMOJFLDBVeZnhFqJHFzt3tEjOugXHaaXZX1pZUETU7SWqHFg0AfhK6dZvfDcf= AQgpYHOSFGfjjNSD8Y43EEY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35671127 35401074 34680973 34060884 33380847=20
32880899 31910879 31190901 31141018 31351140=20
31671161 32271168 32501119 32641064 33121041=20
33631085 34111210 34561234 35061225 35501150=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 172217
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-180400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0438
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
616 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...East-central Missouri through southern
Illinois/Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172213Z - 180400Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms continue to develop across central
Illinois and eastern Missouri and shift east across Indiana. This
activity will continue to repeat with hourly rainfall of 1.5"
across scattered areas. Scattered occurrences of flash flooding
are expected downstream of current areas through this evening.

Discussion...Heavy supercell thunderstorms continue to train
across eastern MO with a south trend to the generally eastward
motion. Each storm cluster is producing rainfall of 1 to 1.5"/hr.
This was of particular concern over central IL where morning
activity was heaviest. Areas downstream, including the St. Louis
and Indianapolis metro areas, are not as sensitive due to less
rainfall (3hr PW generally around 2"), but the repeating nature of
the activity should still warrant scattered instances of flash
flooding.

Moisture is quite elevated with PW now around 2" across
south-central IL back into MO north of StL. Southwesterly low
level flow should push some 2" PW into southern IN as well.
Instability is abundant to the south of current activity with
SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg in MO/IL and an increasing gradient
across central/southern IN. Ample bulk shear will maintain the
intense supercellular storm modes currently seen.

A dry slot is now seen in WV imagery across IA/northern IL which
is south of the mid-level low center near the southern MN/WI
border. This will fortunately keep a northern edge to the activity
which will work its way over the area of central IL most affected
today.

Recent RRFS runs are quite hot with a multi-inch QPF swath
southeast from current central IL activity through south-central
IN while recent HRRRs have been oriented more eastward with
activity across central IN with lower magnitude than the RRFS. As
has been noted recently, reality should be closer to a blend of
the two hourly CAMs. There is enough confidence to consider the
drawn area likely to see additional flash flooding, probably with
scattered coverage.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8EsdQ7uEV2zTjduJPTJ_EeIY0giHJQBFZvyN72_XhYu7XEg4lowBsXpZtCj-MU4zMfYu= fVwIxtVO4cY4XAEBsgOji8U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...LSX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40558842 40488722 40288491 39098506 38748546=20
38188772 38168975 38359197 39189269 39749174=20
40229009=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 180001
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-180600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0439
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180000Z - 180600Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms grow in coverage and intensity
through this evening over southeast Louisiana. Scattered flash
flooding can be expected through midnight before the focus shifts
farther inland. Expect repeating activity with rain rates of 2"+
per hour and 5"+ totals through midnight.

Discussion...As of 00Z, an MCV associated with a mid-level
circulation east of Arthur is tracking north toward the Louisiana
coast. Extremely high moisture and sufficient instability is
present ahead of this wave with PW around 2.6" (3.5 sigma above
normal) and SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are across southeast Louisiana with rain
estimates generally 1 to 1.5"/hr from KHDC. Activity thus far has
avoided NOLA and Baton Rouge, but increasing coverage and
intensity will bring heightened threats to both these sensitive
areas as well as the rest of southeast LA through the evening
hours.

Notable differences are present in recent HRRR and RRFS output
with the HRRR unreasonably west (given MCV placement) over
south-central LA while the placement in recent RRFS to the east
(including NOLA) are reasonable. Both have 6hr QPF of 5-8" maxes
which is reasonable given the extreme PW and a forcing mechanism
slowly approaching the coast allowing redevelopment/repetition.
QPF of this magnitude (with locally higher 6hr max possible)
brings up a concern for considerable impacts to the flash flood
threat. Antecedent conditions are thankfully rather dry for much
of the area, but this amount of QPF over a potentially larger than
normal area warrants likely and considerable wording for this
flash flood threat through midnight.

The activity will be pushing farther inland overnight, but
additional localized heavy rain should warrant further discussion
for southeast LA let alone into through southern MS.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_pWQYebflhlgWJ3Imtg4uBiiUTu79TXYp3x-h9KHY9rjqydktPVhDAqKlRqy-kokr0gC= b-X82zJyqyUhoS3IKza70mM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31289116 31289039 31068982 30718969 30148983=20
29689003 29279077 29489256 30139259 31059191=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 180105
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0440
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
904 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas and Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180102Z - 180700Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to shift southeast
over parts of Missouri into Kansas and Oklahoma overnight. Hourly
rainfall rates up to 1.5" can be expected with an isolated flash
flood threat.

Discussion...Scattered supercells developing ahead of a cold front
over central MO to southeast KS should continue to develop and
locally train and merge into the overnight hours as activity
shifts southeast. Rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr have been estimated
from KSGF where repetition occurred. Abundant instability (SBCAPE
of 2500+ J/kg) and moisture (PW of 1.8 to 2" which are 2 sigma
above normal) ahead of this pre-frontal activity should enable
continued vigorous growth and high intensity.

The 23Z RRFS/HRRR runs are a little underwhelming compared to runs
earlier this afternoon, but the activity continues to grow upscale
per IR imagery and the favorable environment with forcing from the
front should enable continued heavy development. Flash flood
guidance is generally around 2"/hr and 2.5"/3hr. Given the rates
around 1.5"/hr, flash flooding should be limited to isolated areas
where the most repetition/merging occurs. Continued develop
through the overnight is likely, so further discussions may be
warranted.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!63yji4ZsKDTv19X_qfuMcvlmJ1H8PSzDn2mm5sUvAcvTdSvtdMDDj68glaFKjhYA1_R4= RcCkLaddsHwiIUya0XBqUiE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38379320 38299203 37259143 36619331 36459510=20
37129604 37679582 38149469=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 180132
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-180700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0441
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
931 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180130Z - 180700Z

Summary...Thunderstorms over the greater Tucson area and isolated
activity to the north/east will continue through the rest of the
evening. Hourly rainfall of half to one inch per hour should
continue to cause localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms are across the greater Tucson metro
with further development over the eastern Mogollon Rim into
southwest NM. Above normal moisture continues to be reinforced
with westerly low level flow along with sufficient instability of
1500 J/kg SBCAPE.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs depict a general nocturnal downward
trend in intensity. Recent RAP runs maintain some instability rest
of the evening, so a re-issuance of this discussion was warranted.
Flash flooding is considered possible rest of this evening.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-n1W-x0m1pRFpySSgd5Fd9_iPp-Bf-Jbt5chcxVlOi12KBG-cur-u7zbvy7ciYJqJ92V= dOh_WhE8zEyj6KQ2Mu2yuSU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34531009 34120934 32160824 31450873 31050932=20
31201122 32071153 32771157 32951092 33511069=20
34161051=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 180407
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-180930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0442
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1206 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180405Z - 180930Z

Summary...At least isolated flash flooding appears likely across
portions of the OH Valley through 09Z as bands of west to east
training setup. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher)
should be expected with additional totals of 2 to 4+ inches.

Discussion...0345Z radar imagery showed a west-east axis of
scattered thunderstorms from near the Saint Louis metro into
south-central IL/IN and southwestern OH. These thunderstorms were
located well ahead of a cold front and have resulted in an axis of
rain-cooled air from near STL to CVG. SPC mesoanalysis data from
03Z showed the environment where the thunderstorms were occurring
contained MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg, west of the OH/IN border and
PWs of 1.8 to 2.1 inches. Lower surface dewpoints over OH and
eastern KY were limiting instability over the upper OH Valley at
the moment.

Southwesterly low level flow within the warm sector across the
lower OH Valley will advect low level moisture downstream into the
middle and upper OH Valley over the next 3-6 hours resulting in
increasing instability downstream across portions of OH/KY and WV.
Low level axes of convergence aligned with the mean steering flow
from west to east are expected to allow for pockets of training
across a broad region of the OH Valley. The environment will
easily support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches but localized
hourly rainfall in excess of 2 inches will also be possible as was
observed near Terre Haute, IN earlier in the night. While coverage
may not be widespread, at least isolated areas of flash flooding
are expected through 09Z across a good portion of the OH Valley.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8G9EKtCSP-H86LRP0uSfRkUGotz28QhZ7fv7lHVZ5cUZmvE-pWpZYObVvyy-Af5cjL8s= L_rwNHT_vJKK_hnpqw_gGrg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40068118 39918048 39758009 39478010 38808094=20
38148293 37688594 37288930 37639009 38888967=20
39448824 39718452 39908264=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 180553
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-181030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0443
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...southeastern LA into southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180550Z - 181030Z

SUMMARY...Significant rainfall, though perhaps remaining localized
in scale, is expected to impact portions of southeastern LA over
the next 4 hours, possibly impacting portions of southern MS.
Training of heavy rain with hourly rainfall totals over 3 inches
will likely lead to flash flooding with locally considerable
impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from GOES East at 0530Z showed
the mid-level vorticity max associated with former T.S. Arthur
over southwestern LA, with a gradual motion off toward the
northeast. Farther east, a remnant MCV from earlier thunderstorms
was located ~35 miles WSW of New Orleans in infrared and radar
imagery. Radar imagery also showed a WSW to ENE axis of
thunderstorms that has been moving north over the past 3 hours,
located from Terrebonne Parish to ~50 miles south of the western
LA coast, containing MRMS-derived hourly rainfall over 2 to 3
inches. The offshore axis of convection appears to be associated
with low to mid-level convergence located on the southern side of
the broader scale mid-level circulation over southwestern LA.

Tropical moisture was sampled by the 00Z LIX and LCH soundings
with 2.2 to 2.3 inch PWs with wet bulb zero heights of 14 to 16
kft. The tropical airmass will be conducive to efficient rainfall
production and hourly rainfall in excess of 3 inches.

Short term forecasts from the RAP showed the mid-level circulation
over southwestern LA advancing toward southwestern MS over the
next 6 hours which should allow the ongoing convergence axis near
the southern LA coast to lift northward. Model guidance shows the
existing WSW to ENE axis of convergence becoming aligned more SW
to NE through 12Z. This orientation would favor training given
better alignment with the mean steering flow from the southwest.

The environment will be supportive of 3+ inches of rain in an hour
for some locations, although the HRRR has been consistent with
hourly rainfall of 4 to 6+ inches in an hour, which is conceivable
due to the tropical nature of the system. Overlap of these extreme
rain rates atop any population centers could lead to significant
impacts. One area of uncertainty over the next 3-6 hours is the
speed in which the axis of heavy rainfall lifts north, with recent
trends in the HRRR showing a slower northward translation.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8BI4lyu82ejbBThW5vAjuDjTNjo4qsJSFer8uS4fwhfud2QlBDFy-u6T2ARqe0n1-iKk= yc-vkYTABPLCnLTu4Wy96fo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31609106 31468982 31018903 30478873 29628918=20
29138976 28919037 28959150 29379237 29679267=20
30149288 30669283 31179237=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 180907
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-181400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0445
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...central KY/WV northward to OH River

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180900Z - 181400Z

SUMMARY...Training and a few areas of flash flooding are likely to
continue from near the OH River, southward into central KY/WV
through 14Z. Hourly rainfall is expected to range from 1 to 3
inches.

DISCUSSION...0830Z radar imagery showed that a west-east axis of
thunderstorms continued to exhibit areas of training from southern
IN into northern KY and across southern OH. A bookend vortex was
noted to be tracking east across northern KY, just south of
Cincinnati, with a concerning west-east axis of training in its
wake setting up into the Louisville metro. Observed hourly
rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches have been reported within this
axis since 07Z, to the northwest of Louisville. The axis of
thunderstorms was preceded by an elongated outflow boundary with
~500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE in place (highest over western KY, lowest
over WV) according to 08Z SPC mesoanalysis data. PWs were also
near 2 inches along the OH River, supportive of high rain rates.

The outflow boundary and axis of thunderstorms is expected to
advance gradually south over the next 3-4 hours but
slowing/stalling over central and western KY is anticipated. This
will be with strong 40-60 kt of southwesterly to
west-southwesterly flow at 850 mb through at least 12Z, although
weakening of the low level winds is forecast between 12-15Z via
RAP guidance. Continued advection of higher low level moisture
downstream should act to increase MLCAPE locally above 1000 J/kg
for western/central WV through 15Z, increasing the likelihood of
higher intensity rainfall.

West to east training of thunderstorms will continue over the next
3-6 hours across the OH Valley, with hourly rainfall of 1 to 3
inches expected. Additional peak rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
are expected in a few locations through 14Z with a few areas of
flash flooding likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7EvfsY8moZag5nQdcK2so7KXQkGo_8bBPqgVun0CpehkezdHWdCn33RwbWB9klGaz3k3= PFYURDwz3zftr2Ln6qlPGm4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448088 39318030 38837983 38138034 37578105=20
37268206 36998377 36888564 36828785 36698942=20
37488954 37978803 38388645 38948439 39148305=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 180818
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-181300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0444
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...northeastern OK, southeastern KS, southwestern
MO, northwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180816Z - 181300Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash potential will exist across northeastern
OK, southeastern KS, southwestern/southern MO and
northwestern/northern AR (MOKSAROK) through 13Z. Any training from
west to east will support 1 to 2 in/hr rainfall.

DISCUSSION...08Z radar imagery showed a narrow axis of showers and thunderstorms stretching eastward from Lamar to Salem, MO. This
axis was immediately preceded by an outflow boundary which was
slowly sinking south, followed by a NE to SW oriented cold front
to the north, from central IL into central MO, before becoming
stationary into northern OK. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and PWs of
1.6 to 1.8 inches were estimated via 07Z SPC mesoanalysis data
near and ahead of the outflow boundary, with moisture/instability
falling off sharply to the north of the outflow and cold frontal
boundaries.

Deeper layer mean flow was from the W to WNW, quasi-parallel to
the outflow boundary, supportive of occasional cell training and
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches. 925-850 mb
winds were 15-20 kt from the SSW across northeastern OK and
northern AR into southern MO, supporting overrunning of the
outflow boundary but short term RAP forecast guidance shows these
lower level winds weakening through 12z. Weakening low level flow
coupled with a gradual southward advancement to the cold front and
outflow boundary will support the lingering potential for
occasional bursts of thunderstorms slowly shifting south through
12Z across the MOKSAROK and points east, with west-east training
and hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches.

The potential for flash flooding is expected to remain localized
but should these higher rates of 1-2 inches per hour fall across
any urban or otherwise flash flood prone location, excess runoff
and minor flash flooding may result.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6wWEyRHBxXhEwUELxMD1OHDsrrmGdZ7jnaLHyzjEkvc3E9aW6iWN9YEqAfKebRhkfepq= 88PCpcFx0q4QnhsZa2yzsuE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37849208 37459112 36909080 36429121 36279283=20
36319425 36519566 36909612 37549538 37789348=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 180943
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-181230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0446
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...New Orleans Metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180935Z - 181230Z

SUMMARY...A band of heavy rain with 2 to 4+ inch per hour rainfall
will likely move across the city of New Orleans in the next 1-2
hours. Flash flooding, some of which could be significant, appears
likely.

DISCUSSION...0925Z Radar imagery from KHDC showed a SW to NE axis
of training thunderstorms, with embedded mini-supercells, over
Terrebonne, Lafourche and St. Charles parishes, slowly advancing
northeastward. This band has been associated with observed hourly
rainfall of 3 to 4.5 inches in Houma, LA via several
Wunderground.com gauge reports over the past 1-2 hours.

An axis of low level convergence is focusing the strong
thunderstorms within a tropical airmass of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
(tall/skinny instability profile) and PWs near 2.6 inches (via 06Z
LIX sounding). As a mid-level circulation between Alexandria and
Baton Rouge translates northeastward over the next 2-3 hours, the
axis of ongoing extreme rainfall over southeastern LA will likely
impact the New Orleans metro with rain rates over 3 in/hr and
possibly the I-12 corridor from Covington to Slidell.
Considerable, life-threatening impacts may result from this axis
of heavy rainfall through 7:30 AM CDT.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6yhsMMy8JGVFQLvLWN4tMXRqdNB7GkyczpbIKwBISiW6WfIvr3dHaVceILSkf3ilOsHY= EUtH-uvySG1m11HG0oXy81g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31088981 30958931 30428918 29838957 29599010=20
29489045 29539071 29859092 30469039=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 181024
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-181500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0447
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
623 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...southeastern LA into southern/central MS and
western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181021Z - 181500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding, some
of which are expected to be considerable and life-threatening,
will impact portions of southeastern LA into southern MS over the
next 3-5 hours. Additional flash flooding will be possible into
central MS and western AL. Hourly rainfall in excess of 3 inches
is expected in a few locations.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery showed an axis of training
thunderstorms, producing MRMS-derived 2.5 to 4.5 inch hourly
rainfall over southeastern LA at 10Z, extending from St. Charles
Parish across Lake Pontchartrain into St. Tammany Parish. A second
axis of convection was becoming better organized to the west,
between Lafayette and Alexandria, located near a mid-level
circulation, related to former Tropical Cyclone Arthur. The
environment over southern LA into southern MS contained high PWs
of 2.2 to 2.6 inches and MLCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg. Observed hourly
rainfall in Houma, LA in the 4.0 to 4.5 inch range was observed
earlier this morning, a testament to the potential given the
highly favorable environment for efficient rainfall.

RAP forecast guidance shows the mid-level circulation gradually
advancing downstream to the northeast this morning with the
ongoing axes of low level convergence following suit. This motion
will slowly shift the axis/axes of highest rainfall intensities
toward the NNE/NE into southern and southwestern MS. Peak hourly
rainfall over 3 inches will be likely and with slow movement,
additional rainfall totals of 7-10 inches may occur on a localized
basis through 16Z. This high rainfall totals are likely to produce
scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding, some of which are
likely to be considerable in nature with life-threatening impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9NNRQeXDn00-ELHQk9dEd5yGWaqHGDxG-TFn56I3aSh-UTn22BZWuSdX44hFf7vG5q0f= hZ6wOzcfC6TGGvc2SiA7sn4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33578919 33388799 31988747 30838827 30208955=20
29989099 30119162 30399227 31269243 32089190=20
32699106=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 181234
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-181800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0448
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
833 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas, Southwest Missouri, Northwest
Arkansas, Northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181232Z - 181800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across southeast
Kansas and then move slowly E/SE through the morning. Rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are likely at times, leading to the potential for
scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows rapidly
expanding coverage of high reflectivity associated with deepening
thundrestorms over southeast Kansas. These thunderstorms are
generally blossoming within elevated instability of 1500-2000 J/kg
north of a cold front analyzed by WPC. At 700mb, SW flow is slowly
intensifying to 20-30 kts as noted via the SPC RAP mesoanalysis,
which is helping to surge impressive thermodynamics northward
thanks to PWs that are measured by GPS to be above 1.6 inches, or
around the 90th percentile for the date.

The high-res guidance is somewhat under-representing the current
activity this morning, but it is likely that thunderstorms will
continue to expand along and north of this front. As the front
gradually sinks southward into stronger low-level instability,
some additional convection is possible along the accompanying
convergence axis, which will interact with the elevated storms to
produce widespread activity through late morning. With rainfall
rates progged to reach as high as 2"/hr, and repeating or
regenerating storms likely in some areas, this could result in as
much as 3-4" of rainfall (HREF/REFS probabilities for 3+" of rain
10-20%). Admittedly, the coverage of current activity is greater
than many of the high-res models at this time, so locally higher
amounts of rain are also possible.

Recent 7-day rainfall across southeast Kansas has been well below
normal, but in the vicinity of the MO/KS/AR/OK borders, more than
300% of normal rainfall has occurred. This has compromised FFG to
locally 2"/6 hrs which has a 10-30% chance of exceedance. This
indicates at least a local flash flood risk through late morning,
most likely where any repeating storms can occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!92jfNfziMIY-5AnDxbyohPEmvU5kRl278gFCjaXu4H_DNG_f6HH2tx_dh8VfEKptCla3= eZVf8UvbLsXZpyPJ5EbaFGo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38159766 38119626 37859484 37509343 37219245=20
36829169 36349176 36049240 36019365 36089449=20
36239673 36449757 36709832 36899860 37229871=20
37599863 37869833=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 181341
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-181900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0449
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
940 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Bootheel of Missouri through far western Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181339Z - 181900Z

Summary...A narrow line of showers and thunderstorms across
Kentucky this morning will gradually drop southward. Hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely, which through training along
this line could produce 3-4 inches of rainfall. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning indicates a
narrow line of persistent thunderstorms oriented west to east
across northern Kentucky. These thunderstorms have been continuing
now for many hours thanks to continuing convergence along a
WPC-analyzed pre-frontal surface trough, leading to corridors of
2-4" of rainfall within the last 6 hours. Despite some subtle
weakening in the 850mb wind fields as reflected by a drop from
40-50 to 30-40 kts in the RAP analysis, recent hourly rainfall has
still eclipsed 1.25" in many areas along this line. These
impressive rain rates are continuing thanks to still favorable
thermodynamics even within the weakening advection, as MUCAPE
remains above 2000 J/kg coincident with PWs measured via 12Z RAOBs
of 1.75-1.90 inches, or above the 90th percentile for the date.

During the next several hours, the trough should slowly meander
southward across Kentucky while continuing to provide the impetus
for convergence to drive thunderstorm development. Although 850mb
winds are progged to continue to weaken and slowly veer, this will
be somewhat offset by elevated 700mb RH above 70% and a narrow
corridor of near-record PWs to supply moisture for heavy rainfall
rates. As thunderstorms continue to develop on the western edge of
this boundary back towards the Missouri Bootheel (already ongoing
as reflected by increasing glaciation noted in the Euro day-cloud
phase RGB), parallel 850-300mb winds with Corfidi vectors will
drive training of cells to the east, despite generally fast
motions of 30-40 kts. With both HREF and REFS probabilities
indicating a 20-40% chance of 1"+/hr rainfall rates, this training
could result in narrow corridors of 2-4" of addtiional rainfall.

FFG across the region is somewhat compromised, although much of
Kentucky has 0-40cm soil moisture that is only in the 5th-20th
percentile. This will somewhat mitigate the flash flood potential.
However, training of these intense rainfall rates will likely
still overwhelm soils in some areas (especially in urban areas or
the most vulnerable terrain), which has occurred upstream already
this morning. While the intensity and coverage of this activity
may slowly wane in the next several hours, regeneration of
convection appears probable later this aftn, which may necessitate
additional downstream MPDs later today.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6WBeib65eAp42g9b4k8aDBDeF8IZQrcTx_GTkHZvbiBF28qdVKUmkOm_8fwo21midrIL= Tu-nmvDw-vWNS82BR5bnTQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38198376 38178275 37988174 37708121 37428127=20
37068179 36898268 36808397 36688564 36608777=20
36858954 37058983 37338961 37538895 37758818=20
37878749 38098587 38178487=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 181451
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-182000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0450
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1050 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...eastern Louisiana, southern and central
Mississippi, southwest Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181447Z - 182000Z

Summary...Life-threatening and locally catastrophic flash flooding
likely to continue today across portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi, potentially lifting into Alabama this afternoon.
Convergent rain bands with 3-5"/hr rainfall rates are likely,
which through training could produce 5-10" of rain through the
aftn. This will cause widespread flash flooding, with locally
catastrophic impacts possible where training occurs over already
saturated soils.

Discussion...Flash flooding is becoming widespread and significant
this morning, with flash flood emergencies ongoing across
Avoyelles Parish, Louisiana and Pearl River County, Mississippi.
In these areas, morning rainfall has already been estimated via
MRMS above 9", with multiple measurements above 11" recorded via
local mesonet sites.

This rainfall is associated with a surface low accompanying the
remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur which dissipated in southeast TX
last evening. However, impressive kinematics and thermodynamics
persist, leading to the intense rainfall ongoing this morning.
850mb winds southeast of the low center are measured via VWPs and
the RAP analysis to be 45-50 kts, more than 1.5x the mean
850-300mb wind. This setup is not only reflective of impressive
ascent driven by convergence, but also is leading to robust
thermodynamic advection as PWs measured by GPS above 2.3" (a daily
record) are pushed northeastward on this low-level inflow. At the
same time, a plume of increasing MLCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) will
supply ample instability to maintain these intense rain rates,
especially where convergence maximizes along any inflow/convergent
bands SE of the remnant low center. This is already materializing
as reflected by the recent radar mosaic showing two distinct bands
(one across south-central LA and another in eastern LA through
southern MS) with hourly MRMS rainfall rates of 3-4"/hr.

As the aftn progresses the surface low should slowly move
northeast and may weaken, but the impressive mesoscale (and
synoptic due to height falls and upper diffluence) ascent will
continue to tap the record thermodynamics to produce heavy
rainfall. The high-res guidance is in good agreement that an
expansive area of 3-5" of rain will occur through late this aftn,
with locally as much as 8-10" possible within the most persistent
convergence. While the antecedent conditions are already favorable
for flash flooding due to 0-40cm soil moisture that is above the
95th percentile, it is within these convergent bands, with the
prolonged training, where the most dangerous, and potentially
catastrophic, flash flooding will occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-LgcBJIYbznfdPHIOShIL1qWiq7HJiG0cyt3CYgoGM4kx9Vdj5U1lDHhad-OstoSMEvt= 2dn1hJad12y_HTXKOZQe-68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33368902 33348796 32588683 31678645 30888674=20
30618737 30308832 30128929 30028999 30049071=20
30089141 30219207 30479262 30839279 31089264=20
31139255 31989131 32859008=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 181645
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0451
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1244 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Upstate New York, Central and Northern New
England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181700Z - 182300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand and exhibit
short-term training across Upstate New York and New England this
afternoon. Rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr are likely at times,
leading to 2-3" of rainfall with locally higher amounts. This may
result in instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The experimental GOES-E day cloud phase imagery this
afternoon shows rapid expansion of glaciating clouds across
Upstate New York and into northern New England. This development
is associated with a rapid expansion of convection noted in the
regional radar mosaic, developing within impressive WAA well
downstream of a cold front draped over Lake Erie.

The environment downstream of this front is, and will remain,
extremely favorable for heavy rainfall within thunderstorms.
Recent RAP analyzed MLCAPE has exceeded 500 J/kg coincident with
PWs of 1.4 to 1.5 inches to provide robust thermodynamics. Into
this environment, forcing is intensifying through low-level
convergence ahead of the front, overlapped by strengthening upper
diffluence in the vicinity of a northeast-oriented upper jet
streak. Recent MRMS estimated 1-hr rainfall has been generally
0.75 to 1.00 inches, but storm motions have limited total rainfall
to prevent any notable impacts thus far.

In the next few hours, thunderstorm development is expected to
increased across central and northern New England, while lines of
thunderstorms ahead of the front pivot eastward. HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1+"/hr rainfall peaks around 22Z at over 60% in
VT/NH, which will occur in tandem with the greatest training
potential as Corfidi vectors and 0-6km mean winds become parallel.
This will support the potential for prolonged periods of rainfall
with these impressive rates, and total rainfall could exceed 3"
(10-20% chance from the HREF). This creates a 10-30% chance of
exceeding the 3-hr FFG through this evening, with the greatest
chance for any flash flood impacts likely across parts of VT/NH
where the highest 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles from NASA SPoRT
overlap with the more vulnerable terrain features.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8VoyaKFoyHL37xts8ym-CeTQPxbvGeej-mNvYi56LT0LDVXcYYKJbw4FqPgynXTx9Ghb= zhAr8OGmswRjhfNPV3u7V4A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46476946 46106903 45416904 44476957 43807000=20
43287064 42667191 42387320 42267461 42257544=20
42477573 43227538 43927487 44567420 45057333=20
45197213 45397144 45847090 46237055 46467013=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 181747
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0452
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181745Z - 182300Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will continue
across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma through this
the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-1.5"/hr are likely, leading to
additional rainfall of 2-3". This could produce instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms noted via the regional
radar mosaic this afternoon continue to expand along and just
north of a stationary front analyzed by WPC. Along this boundary,
moisture confluence is occurring as reflected by converging 850mb
wind streams from the ENE (north) and ESE (south). This confluence
is pushing PWs to above 1.8 inches as measured by GPS, which is
well above the 90th percentile for the date according to the SPC
sounding climatology. Aloft, flow at 700mb continues to be S/SW,
providing modest upslope ascent while providing sufficient
thermodynamic advection (RH above 70% and MUCAPE above 2000 J/kg)
to help continue this activity. Recent rainfall rates as measured
by MRMS have been 1.25 to 1.5 inches as storms drift slowly E/SE
across the area.

The high-res guidance is generally struggling to capture the
ongoing elevated activity, so confidence is modest as to the
evolution over the next several hours. However, the environment is
changing only modestly, so persistence of this activity with a
slow translation to the south is the most likely outcome through
the afternoon. With continued moisture confluence into the
boundary supporting elevated PWs, and 0-6km bulk shear rising to
35-50 kts, any storms that develop could organize into clusters
and enhance rainfall rates to as much as 1.5"/hr this aftn. At the
same time, 850mb winds of 15-25 kts from the east will be
generally opposite the mean 850-300mb winds, helping Corfidi
vectors to collapse to just around 5-10 kts. This indicates slow
moving storms to the S/SE, allowing these intense rain rates to
produce locally 2-3" of rainfall.

Outside of areas that have already received heavy rain today,
soils are generally dry (0-40cm soil moisture percentiles from
NASA SPoRT generally just 5-20%). This will somewhat offset the
flash flood potential. However, a few flash flood warnings have
already been issued this morning, which suggests additional flash
flooding is possible where any of these slow moving storms produce
the most intense rainfall, even across any of these drier soils.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7ZybLqQgTfRz9unYeWZQrOkAyP3gNxNE0ZTK3WbwoUB0KxmrjVRNNkqnjUJSHOhAV2kf= 9RCNULBcWAgPDCZcjCRAPlw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38209640 38189578 38069506 37659462 37199458=20
36849465 36369487 36069569 35989659 36019747=20
36189821 36509886 36819933 37229952 37569930=20
37909818 38029750=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 181836
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0453
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast into Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181833Z - 182345Z

Summary...Life-threatening and locally catastrophic flash flooding
continues along the central Gulf Coast northeast of New Orleans
through southern Alabama with additional heavy rain expanding into
eastern Georgia rest of the afternoon. Convergent rain bands with
3 to 4"/hr rainfall rates are likely to persist with additional 5
to 10"+ forecast into the evening. Widespread flash flooding, with
locally catastrophic impacts likely where this extreme band
persists occurs.

Discussion...As of 1830Z, an extreme rainband over southern MS
extending northeast just north of Mobile, AL with more scattered
heavy rain over the rest of southern AL. Hourly rainfall of 3 to
4" are estimated from KMOB and KHDC as the band moves along its
axis of orientation. Redevelopment has been occurring near New
Orleans, though that focus has shifted east of that vulnerable
metro area.

Extreme moisture of 2.6" PW is over southern MS with a gradient to
2.2" by the southern AL/GA border. This coastal area is under the
mid-level wave that remained east of Arthur and continues to drift
northeast. MCVs from other activity are farther nor over MS and
are helping to maintain focus for this band near the coast. 40kt
SSWly low level flow will maintain this extreme moisture advection
and an instability gradient of 3000 J/kg along the AL/FL Panhandle
coast to 1500 J/kg over south-central MS will help maintain this
extreme repeating band as it slowly shifts northeast.

Considerable flash flooding can be considered anywhere under this
heavy band with localized catastrophic where it persists longest
(with rainfall exceeding 10") over the most sensitive metro areas.
Areas toward the AL/GA border will see general flash flooding at
first, but will see prolonged intense rainfall later this evening
which will be addressed in followup discussions. Continued flash
flooding to the north of these areas associated with the MCVs will
be addressed separately.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9CC-5XeN443egHS47DdSfC6-cgwKrDdLri9Kcqa4KTrjAlDakX2lA7idF08UsFoSoTRX= BNfmGOafI54BP-z_Bs-ewBg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33398425 31758365 30908507 30488670 30108844=20
29658960 29938993 31188915 32688747 33358591=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 181841
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0454
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...southern Kentucky, Tennessee, far southwest
Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181839Z - 190030Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across southern
Kentucky and northern Tennessee through the afternoon. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, with briefly higher rates possible.
These storms will move slowly, leading to 2-4" of rainfall with
localized higher amounts possible. This may cause flash flooding.

Discussion...An interesting synoptic evolution favorable for heavy
rainfall is developing across portions of Kentucky and Tennessee
this afternoon. The remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur are spinning
over LA/MS, with an expansive tropical moisture plume
characterized by PWs above 2 inches (well above the 90th
percentile for the date, and daily records in some areas) surging
northward into TN coincident with elevated MLCAPE of 2000-2500
J/kg. Farther north, a cold front analyzed by WPC is drifting
southeast across KY, and impinging into this increasingly moist
and unstable environment, leading to regeneration of convection
across the area.

The latest regional radar mosaic indicates generally modest
reflectivity in two parallel lines from far western TN through far
western VA. However, the experimental GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB
suggests an expansion of rapid glaciation/deepening storms that
may not be reflected in radar quite yet. This is additionally
confirmed by higher Lightning-Cast probabilities, and it appears
the rapid intensification of convection progged earlier by the
HRRR is beginning. While the guidance has backed off slightly into
how robustly this convection will expand/intensify, the
destabilizing and moistening column surging northward and
interacting with the southward advancing front should result in
widespread thunderstorm activity into the evening.

As storms develop along both convergence axes, there should be
some interaction into a more cohesive single line from western TN
into southeast KY. Storms that develop along this interface will
have robust thermodynamics to support rainfall rates of 2+"/hr
(10-30% chance from the HREF), and these cells will move slowly
and train west to east on 0-6km mean winds of just 5-10 kts. This
could rapidly become an increasing flash flood risk, as these
intense rates moving slowly result in narrow corridors of 6-hr
accumulation exceeding 3" (60% chance HREF, 80% chance REFS) and
even 5" (20% chance HREF, 30% chance REFS).

Despite the uncertainty in the guidance due to inconsistent
trends, and relatively dry antecedent conditions (0-40cm soil
moisture around the 10th percentile), this evolution could support
at least isolated instances of flash flooding, especially under
the slowest moving cells or should any storm move atop the more
urban areas.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8RePcB2k6xOpPHvIfDpqb6YP2ZcsQDLbXoPe3Kv9jNCM2Mu_NcrmC3-KhwWESzTDcUra= ApHt60b91YXm5i8r6bVbwbw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37488407 37488309 37458238 37388201 37308185=20
37068179 36778183 36488215 36088321 35938399=20
35788529 35688656 35538794 35258896 35058961=20
35079006 35319018 35758997 36628903 36908802=20
37388558=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 181947
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-190045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0455
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Mississippi and Northern Alabama to southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181944Z - 190045Z

Summary...Corridor of scattered repeating heavy rain north of the
main axis will continue from central Mississippi across northern
Alabama into eastern Tennessee and northwest Georgia through this
evening. Expect scattered flash flooding in central Mississippi,
more isolated coverage northeast of there.

Discussion...The north side of the main heavy rain axis near the
central Gulf Coast continues to see repeating heavy rain from
interactions with MCVs in AL and additional thunderstorm clusters=20
over northwest GA. This activity will continue to shift northeast
with the low level remnants of Arthur. Abundant moisture is
associated with the MCVs with PW around 2.5", then there is a
gradient to 1.8" PW in the terrain of the southern Appalachians.
24-35kt southerly flow will allow this moisture max to shift
northeast and potentially expand the area of repeating heavy rain
across northern AL into eastern TN. The limiting factor will be
instability which is lower along the MS/AL border in the current
stratiform region. This area of reduced instability should track
northeast with the high PW pool. However, any instability should
allow heavy rain given deep warm rain processes.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate a threat for 2-5" rainfall
maxima through 01Z over north-central AL with more scattered 1-3"
totals elsewhere in this discussion area. Flash flood guidance is
lowered in east-central MS where heavy rain has occurred over the
past day and generally around 2"/hr and 3"/3hr over north-central
AL, northwest GA and far eastern TN. Scattered flash flooding can
be expected in eastern MS where continued development associated
with an MCV should occur with more isolated flash flooding over
northern AL, areas in GA northwest of Atlanta, and into eastern TN.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8aKQiJOWq19ZWLhBSZWguJLqDyUShpGcKxY_mn6Cpx9vlqwDcuSakdZG7KnbeBoRPzN6= iQd-ys3yttU_-805JFLm4XQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...MOB...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35928336 35228377 33648497 32748707 31838833=20
31248936 31798979 32648896 34688671 35808528=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 182136
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-190235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0456
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Georgia and South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182135Z - 190235Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to move northeast from
Georgia through South Carolina this evening. Meanwhile the main
axis of heavy rain currently over southern Alabama will continue
to shift northeast into central Georgia. Flash flooding should
remain localized this evening before becoming more widespread
overnight.

Discussion...Thunderstorms continue to develop in a tropical plume
over the Southeast late this afternoon. Multi-cell clusters over central/eastern Georgia with hourly rainfall estimates of 1-2"
will push across South Carolina this evening where additional
activity is developing. Furthermore, the main axis of repeating
heavy rain inland from the Gulf coast continues to slowly work its
way across the FL Panhandle/southern AL and will track across
southern GA this evening. PW of 2 to 2.3" is present in this plume
which along with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg will continue to promote
heavy thunderstorm development. Effective bulk shear around 25kt
will keep this activity moving somewhat though renewed development
and cell mergers will make for local FFG exceedances. FFG is
generally 2.5"/hr over central GA/Midlands of SC and closer to
3"/hr over southern GA/Lowcountry of SC. Isolated flash flooding
is possible into this evening with more widespread coverage
overnight as activity from near the Gulf Coast shifts across this
area. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate a risk for localized
streaks of 1-4" through 03Z. These may impact the Atlanta and
Columbia metro areas as well as other more sensitive locations
such as Augusta and Greenville.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4yPGp9-uvzrz-C0NuS0UJcV5tFEXu8A4vo2RwuVqn08QtqZuwq6YgRnNOS38FYpq3sGn= cnf5xAWe7fu1kq5ZuyE2A6Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...MRX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35638340 35308102 34367986 33078057 32208184=20
31538378 32438495 33498499 34298449 35188378=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 182342
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-190500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0457
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
740 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 182339Z - 190500Z

Summary...Another round of life-threatening and locally
catastrophic flash flooding continues just inland from the central
Gulf Coast over southern Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle through midnight. Convergent rain bands with 2 to 4"/hr
rainfall rates are likely to persist with additional 4 to 8"+
forecast through midnight. Widespread flash flooding resumes, with
locally catastrophic impacts likely where these heavy rates
persist and overlap heavy rainfall from the past 12hrs. extreme
band persists occurs.

Discussion...As of 2330Z, two particularly heavy clusters of
thunderstorms are over southern MS and southern AL with hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3" estimated from KMOB with an eastward motion.
These developed in the lee of the previous slow moving line that
worked east over southern AL/FL Panhandle this afternoon. Rain
rates around 1.5"/hr are see on the eastern AL/FL border from the
last part of the original band. This activity is falling over
areas that already received 4 to 14" in the past 12hrs,
particularly over southern MS.

The remnant low from Arthur is over central AL with a trough and
focus for development extending southwest where this new
development is. Convergence along this boundary is occurring from
35kt SWly flow from the Gulf. PW of 2.4" is pooling along this
trough and will continue to feed very heavy rainfall.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate several more inches of rainfall
along this corridor through 04Z with estimates in the 4-8" range.
This will cause widespread considerable flash flooding with
locally catastrophic impacts, particularly where the highest
amounts fall and where any elevated amounts fall over areas that
already received multiple inches. CAMs indicate activity waning
after midnight, though that will need to be monitored as the
evening progresses given the slow motion of the Arthur remnants.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-IT_mJqM5o-VSS_qM5XihI8FSw2A5XY189A5JP-NJ9yyqvB3eU_6WL1_Y4HhkX1Md9fs= x0HzsEPpeAYvn-vKsMPg5g8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32698481 31748385 30668419 30278485 30178565=20
30128745 30088874 30178969 30869036 31269017=20
31538917 32128735 32648636=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 190045
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-190545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0458
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190043Z - 190545Z

Summary...Heavy showers and thunderstorms over portions of the
southern Appalachians onto the North Carolina Piedmont will
persist into the overnight. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely
to persist with an additional 2-4" over a few hours should cause
localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered heavy thunderstorms over southwestern VA to north-central NC will continue to shift northeast this evening.
Rainfall rates of 2"/hr south of Mt Airy NC which is just east
where a few inches fell since this afternoon. Further development
in this area could continue to occur in this warm sector on the
leading edge of the tropical plume ahead of the remnants of
Arthur. PW over central NC is around 2" which could tick higher
rest of this evening.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate a few areas of 2-4" over this
area through midnight. Localized flash flooding is probable to
continue. Additional rainfall late tonight could warrant further
discussions overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6tlq0gQ-SrtwP8li4OyLQ-HnkNWcB8QBPK4gdhvIulsYaef2GrXySHkxPpcAvpsydFrC= Cn7K7N3aHbYLOn0cefRencI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37678187 37198035 36687937 36247859 35607893=20
35487992 35168096 35608289 36488379 37278307=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 190519
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0459
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
118 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...southern MS/AL/GA into FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190516Z - 191000Z

SUMMARY...At least isolated areas of renewed flash flooding are
expected from portions of southern MS into southern AL,
southwestern GA and the FL Panhandle. 1-2 in/hr rates are most
likely, but embedded and isolated 2-4 in/hr rates will also be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Scattered elevated thunderstorms were observed on
radar imagery from south-central MS into south-central AL at
0450Z, located mostly north of a U-shaped outflow boundary that
extended from southern GA to the offshore waters of the western FL
Panhandle and back inland into south-central MS. While locations
north of the outflow boundary were stable with respect to
surface-based parcels, elevated instability of 500 to 1500 J/kg
remained in place from south-central MS into southwestern GA along
with high PWs of 2.0 to 2.4 inches (SPC mesoanalysis and GPS
data).

Low level confluent flow, located approximately 50-100 miles
inland of the central Gulf Coast, was observed in the 925-850 mb
layer. This low level confluence was located in the wake of the
remnant mid-level circulation from Arthur (currently over
northeastern GA). Short term forecasts from the RAP show the axis
of elevated low level confluence becoming better defined over
southern AL over the next 3-5 hours, roughly aligned with the mean
steering flow. While the low level convergence axis does not at
this time appear to favor a single continuous axis of elevated
thunderstorms, there should be at least a broken axis of
thunderstorms that may oscillate in intensity with embedded areas
of training. Some upper level jet support in the form of
right-entrance region ascent over southern AL/GA may aid with
larger scale lift. Due to heavy rain and ongoing flooding over
portions of the area, additional heavy rain will likely renew ares
of flash flooding across the region.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ETSDH1Dd0niJsq9wkabs-wURQwzcYHhcX-d4k-s1h86l9Wei6hq-UfsS_048uRfmlNf= A5i4rjePD2l3c3Nd-fVxnw8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...JAX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32418801 32408664 32348553 32198364 32128274=20
30908250 30198395 29958595 30168769 31118895=20
31388977 31959000 32308904=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 190706
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-191300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0460
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...TX Panhandle, northwestern TX into southwestern
OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190704Z - 191300Z

SUMMARY...The expanding coverage of slow moving thunderstorms
through early morning may result in a few areas of flash flooding
across portions of the TX Panhandle into northwestern TX into
southwestern OK. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher
possible) is expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour ending at 0645Z, elevated
thunderstorms have become better organized over northwestern TX
into the southern TX Panhandle and southwestern OK. Low level
advection of moisture over a quasi-stationary front has resulted
in the erosion of CIN beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to
8.5 C/km) present across the head waters of the Red River. MUCAPE
across this region of the southern Plains was moderately strong at
2000-4000 M/kg and PWs were high at 1.5 to 2.0 inches (06Z SPC
mesoanalysis). Meanwhile, weak steering flow was resulting in slow
cell motions of less than 10 kt.

RAP forecast showed that 850 mb winds of ~30 kt from the S to SE
over northwestern TX will weaken through 12Z but coverage of
storms is likely to increase before then. The expected increasing
coverage of cells could result in a a few small semi-organized
clusters with propagation toward the ESE or SE. Slow movement and
brief training is likely to result in hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches in a few locations but isolated higher rates will be
possible as well. The result could be isolated to widely scattered
coverage of flash flooding through 13Z with 2 to 4+ inches of
storm total rainfall.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_34k5TeeeRSNMAj-5HAGmmEFNoFhRcGa7qJKU6ixWF9VI80XFlHkPEDKicLSw7I5nsfp= KXXNPUcrOXQxMIUHDPmwHU4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35700095 35669953 35389809 34679622 33719640=20
33389786 32729888 32829939 33309967 33840015=20
34150101 34600174 35330155=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 191009
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0461
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
608 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern/central/northern TX into
southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191005Z - 191515Z

SUMMARY..Slow moving thunderstorms may result in widely scattered
areas of flash flooding from southwestern to central to northern
TX into southern OK through 15Z. Rainfall totals of 3 to 4+ inches
are expected.

DISCUSSION...0945Z radar imagery over OK/TX showed two regions of thunderstorms. The first was across the southeastern TX Panhandle
into southwestern OK and northern TX, bisecting a quasi-stationary
front draped from the Red River into southwestern TX. The second
area of thunderstorms was across the Trans Pecos region, also near
the front, out ahead of a slowly eastward advancing upper level
shortwave trough across far western TX/southeastern NM. Both
regions of thunderstorms were located near a gradient in
instability with strong MLCAPE values of 2000 to 4000+ J/kg
estimated via SPC mesoanalysis data from near Del Rio to Abilene
to Dallas/Fort Worth. In addition, weak deep layer steering flow
was resulting in slow storm motions and MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall between 1 and 3 inches.

A gradual eastward movement to the somewhat disorganized upper
level trough over western TX/NM should provide added ascent into
portions of central TX this morning, likely resulting in an
increase in thunderstorm coverage from 12Z-15Z. The greatest
coverage is expected to be from northern TX into southern OK where
ongoing convection is most robust with embedded mesocyclones and
stronger low level convergence in place. However, at least
scattered coverage of thunderstorms is expected to develop farther
south as well. Given forcing for ascent is not very organized and
deep layer shear is poor, storm organization and motions will be
somewhat chaotic, with an overall eastward translation of heavy
rain anticipated through the morning hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KhezxR7uF3Aebz5SEWSbHoJWrJ0eTDlmkCBt55FoLpuq9XBWp8ExePwGl7U_cJDcRva= TT26X0MvxuqXtFlU-fgA0q0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...LUB...LZK...MAF...OUN...SHV...
SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35459963 35449833 35159673 34819557 34389469=20
34099426 33789411 33439421 33159454 33029489=20
32989540 32879577 32689635 31859740 30889846=20
30109941 29570019 29540134 30020187 30620171=20
31350043 32309945 32799883 33299880 33669906=20
33899965 34200027 34570053 35130030=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 191137
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-191730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0462
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191130Z - 191730Z

SUMMARY...Blossoming thunderstorms will produce excessive rainfall
rates up to 3"/hr at times this morning. Flash flooding is likely
with locally significant flash flooding possible due to a
combination of excessive rainfall rates over highly saturated
soils.

DISCUSSION...A 6-hr RTMA theta-e loop shows a rain cooled air-mass
located just north of a remnant outflow boundary that is
positioned from the MS Delta region on south and east into the FL
Panhandle. There remains an abundance of 1000-850mb moisture in
addition to upper 70s surface dew points along the Gulf Coast. An
IVT out of the western Gulf continues to funnel 925-850mb moisture
into the Deep South at the same time as RAP forecast guidance
shows NWrly 850-500mb streamlines to the north converge with SWrly
850-500mb flow to the south. PWs remain around 2.25" with locally
higher values present and MLCAPE >2,000 J/kg will stick around
this morning and into the early afternoon.

With an outflow boundary nearby acting as a trigger, and mid-upper
level confluence increasing this morning, the stage is set for
renewed rounds of highly efficient thunderstorms within an area of
the South that needs no more rainfall. 1-hr FFGs this morning are
<0.75" in parts of southern MS, much of southern AL, and as far
east as southwest GA. 06Z HREF probabilities between 12-18Z are
showing southern AL and the FL Panhandle as having
moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for >3" of rainfall during that
time, with low-to-moderate chances (20-40%) for totals topping 5". Thunderstorms will develop as far west as the MS River Delta
region, closer to the origins of the mid-upper level convergence
axis this morning. 06Z HREF probabilities show moderate chances
(40-60%) for rainfall totals >3" there, but note FFGs are not
nearly as low as their neighbors to the east. Still, the
atmosphere contains similar elevated moisture content and plenty
of instability, making flash flooding a concern in those areas
farther west.

Between these totals and the FFGs mentioned, there is concern for
more areas of flash flooding to unfold this morning. The areas of
greatest concern are southern MS and southern AL where rainfall
totals range anywhere from as low as a couple inches in more
northern locations of the highlighted area to over 10" north of
the I-10 corridor. Portions of southern MS and southern AL are so
sensitive that 2"/hr rainfall rates will have no trouble causing
rapid water rises and become treacherous along roadways that
border creeks or drain poorly. Thunderstorms should start to
dissipate and decrease in coverage this afternoon as the
atmosphere becomes over-worked and low-level moisture transport
lessens, but until then, additional flash flooding is expected.
Given the lingering effects from yesterday's tremendous rainfall,
locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding is
possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9nbuMDGbA2j95fSW8oBINDpaQZbMh_hdB2urs_K0vAre-5FmljyiWoWyHw6eBkxfuIg8= Yq46yJNfwUHyBrQQp5tXg4g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33309143 32688892 32488687 32448500 32278367=20
31978305 31408325 30378378 30008485 30378656=20
30778843 31328987 31609076 32279174=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 191315
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-191830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0463
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...ArkLaTex...Southern AR...Northern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191315Z - 191830Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming along a frontal boundary ahead
of an approaching MCS. Rainfall rates between 2-3"/hr may lead to
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms have developed along a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary oriented W-E along the LA/AR
border. 925mb winds out of the south are oriented orthogonally to
the boundary and are continuing to deliver anomalous low-level
moisture into the region. PWs will increase as the MCS approaches
with values approaching 2.25" this morning. RAP mesoanalysis shows
between 2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE available to developing storms
along and south of the theta-e gradient. These storms are forming
ahead of an approaching MCS where cloud tops over the Red River
continue to cool. RAP forecasts show 25-30 kts of effective bulk
shear will accompany the MCS and help to maintain the complex as
it reaches the ArkLaTex this morning.

NASA SPoRT-LIS shows 0-10cm soil moisture percentiles are
generally on the dry side (between 2-10 percentiles) so soils will
take some time to saturate initially. That said, the storms ahead
of the MCS will help to saturate soils ahead of the MCS and the
outflow in advance of the MCS could trigger additional storms on
the southern flank of the MLCAPE gradient. The amount of
instability and moisture referenced above would support up to
3"/hr rainfall rates, which is shown in 06Z HREF probabilistic
guidance to have some merit (10-30% chances for >3/hr QPF through
18Z). The initial soil conditions and progression of the MCS
should help to limit the areal extent of the flash flood
potential, but areas of southern AR and northern LA where initial
storms are slow moving will help to prime soils in advance of the
MCS. Flash flooding is possible this morning and into the early
afternoon

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!65NZh7CW5CYj3Khj7ihrZztiHKARQOJBAABeEMHnZL_3b7DDnH6SkNWgM7Ox8G14MYwJ= ilQ8S9eGFtWA2plmN340scQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33909408 33879300 33659191 33279171 32839189=20
32409207 32339328 32579439 33109457=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 191434
FFGMPD
GAZ000-191845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0464
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1032 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Southeast GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191430Z - 191845Z

SUMMARY...Repeating rounds of thunderstorms with a history of
causing flash flooding will continue for a couple more hours.
Additional flash flooding is likely with locally considerable
impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar continues to depict training segments
of thunderstorms over southeast GA this morning. This is due to=20
NWrly winds over the Mid-South and SWrly flow over the Gulf
converging aloft within an environment that contains >2.2" PWs and
MLCAPE of at least 1,000 J/kg. RAP forecasts show this convergence
of deep moist convection will linger for another hour or so while
outflow from this complex eventually propagates south. Storms will
eventually taper off in the harder hit areas, but grow southward
along the outflow boundary closer to the FL/GA line. Radar
estimates show at least 2-3" of rainfall have fallen in some
areas, and one LSR near Nicholls reported 2.45" of rain in one
hour.

Expect another hour or two of 2-3"/hr max rainfall rates, which is
likely to generate additional flash flooding this morning and
through midday. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4" are likely
through early afternoon. Given the nature of these rates and soils
rapidly moistening, locally considerable flash flooding; including
flooded roadways in areas that drain poorly, is possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_H3Fly4zpGkdlHJWqLa-hHvQuXP2jJYpbxJOKW1RCFS-B9cEOLiEzJX22PcPMhLEBxL4= cYQ6YxSTnK1Ns2Avylq_xvc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31918274 31708171 31358137 30948142 30818190=20
30838249 30928301 31238343 31888322=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 191508
FFGMPD
TXZ000-192030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0465
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1107 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191500Z - 192030Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms associated with a pair of MCS will push
through the I-35 corridor this morning. Storms are also ongoing
south of I-20 this morning. Additional flash flooding is likely
through midday with storms over urbanized communities most at-risk.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite imagery showed
a pair of thunderstorm complexes responsible for areas of flash
flooding in portions of central TX this morning. The leading edge
of these MCSs are denoted by outflow boundaries; one along the
I-35 corridor south of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, and
another exiting the Edwards Plateau. The environment ahead of
these storms does have plenty of instability (RAP mesoanalysis
shows >2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and PWs just short of 2.0". There is
some CIN ahead of these boundaries and 0-6km vertical wind shear
is lighter. This forces storms to be more reliant upon the
strength of their current cold pools and the outflows for
additional development. Meanwhile, a closed 700mb low north of San
Angelo and east of Midland is continuing to trigger storms along
its eastern and northern flanks, which RAP guidance shows will
continue for a couple more hours.

CAMs such as the RRFS and the HRRR all show storms being on the
progressive side, which will help to limit areal extent of the
flash flood threat. However, the more urbanized I-35 corridor with
its greater concentration of hydrophobic surfaces does pose a
concern for increased run-off. RAP mesoanalysis also shows
surface-850mb winds in South TX will intersect these outflows and
continue to provide a trigger at low-level for additional
thunderstorm development. Farther north and west, soils have
saturated more and the slower progression of the storms near the
700mb low will provide a suitable environment for additional flash
flooding. Given these storms have a history of causing flash
flooding, and satellite/radar showing no signs of storms tapering
off within the next hour or so, additional flash flooding is
likely across central Texas through midday.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!960jI6a5846vxxiHHjE0lzW1s2jAlk4zjxTQLRp0-C3dRbDPn9s7QlXkkoDVWhGdITGN= pcW_r1BBFLzIgir9s6UEOKY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32910015 32899998 32839946 32659906 32479836=20
32429781 32499727 32659672 32619607 32479583=20
32159580 31819607 31389648 30879688 30449739=20
29999781 29219880 28619958 28330001 28360059=20
28530085 29020114 29470106 29860091 30360041=20
30740027 31090015 31370027 31660049 31910074=20
32190088 32460096 32640092 32900062=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 191750
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0466
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191750Z - 192330Z

SUMMARY...A training band of strong thunderstorms containing up to
3"/hr rainfall rates will continue to produce areas of flash
flooding this afternoon. Significant and life-threatening flash
flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...The convergent flow pattern responsible for this
morning's flash flooding from MS to southern GA continues to help
regenerate thunderstorms early this afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis
shows a ribbon of >2.2" PWs that coincides along a NW-SE oriented
MLCAPE gradient. MLCAPE on the southern flank of the gradient is
nearing 3,000 J/kg, and as storms produce outflows and they
propagate south, additional storms will flare up over the flooded
areas north of I-10. 15-minute MRMS radar estimates are
highlighting rates of at least 0.5" in the storms over southern
AL, suggesting at least 2"/hr rates are ongoing. There have been
some instances where hourly rainfall totals have approached 3" as
well earlier this morning. These kind of excessive rates rates
will continue to cause additional flash flooding with locally
significant and life-threatening flooding possible where training
thunderstorms occur.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6l6sSJq9I7G0k3om8c_1rUTRwQyOI-94n9OD7xXEnMJm1SUBx9CjT1h3qzGtLo9vnlhz= Nu5bR70gN24b9ROibI8DPQ8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33108919 32848828 32338703 32118630 31818547=20
31658477 31578446 31368365 30458360 30308424=20
30398524 30698663 31038835 31458940 32029014=20
32579056 32919055 33098990=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 191750
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-192049-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0467
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
150 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...near the FL/GA border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191749Z - 192049Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rains are drifting
south into northeast FL. Hourly rain amounts to 3" could lead to
flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.

Discussion...Heavy rains are dropping south in the vicinity of a
baroclinic trough extending west-southwest of what used to be
Tropical Storm Arthur. A shortwave moving through the
Mid-South/TN is leading to difluence aloft. Low-level confluence
exists across the area. Precipitable water values are ~2.25" ML
CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg exists here. Effective bulk shear is near
25 kts.

The 12z HREF seems to have some handle on the convective
progression. The expectation is that convection moving in from
the FL Big Bend will initially help hold up the southward
progression long enough to lead to hourly rain amounts to 3".=20
Based on the degree of effective bulk shear, some level of
convective organization is possible. Since flash flood guidance
values are high, problems should be mostly constrained to urban
areas. Radar reflectivity trends suggest a few hours of heavy
rain concerns, so used a three hour horizon.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!86vKmGVHH7ZwrPGir0yG6abo81dDRruIn3vlB3PFNDT3h_-CNyA1YcpOYbPNEC1iaRjo= Noe2WTHIkG1EpgnMK07jb_U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31228298 30838153 30448135 29818117 29578137=20
29658275 29778367 30018408 30338365 30688360=20
31148342=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 191905
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-200103-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0468
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern NM & the TX Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191903Z - 200103Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing within an
environment with eroding CIN. Hourly rain amounts to 2" could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...An upper level shortwave moving through the Southern
High Plains is leading to diffluence aloft near a stationary front
within the topography of the TX Big Bend and Southern NM.=20
Precipitable water values are 1-1.25". Effective bulk shear is 25
kts. ML CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg lies near and just behind/east of
the front. CIN is eroding at the present time.

The mesoscale guidance suggests that the convective uptick in
coverage should continue through 21-22z. There will be a tendency
for convection to move south-southeast per forward propagation
vectors, though the instability behind the front and some eastward
nudging of the 1000-500 hPa thickness pattern could allow for
occasional southeast motion. Hourly amounts up to 2" are possible
in this environment where cells merge, stall, or short periods of
training occur. Isolated to widely scattered occurrences of flash
flooding are possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EKvSWTgqsD9MbWgBr_-hCzP2Ag-SR-odfk2-eemn_JsK_zBkxPkV3decnT-jM37y_sR= PPSCaCKPkrr55DvXLhGagFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33600515 30070244 28960299 29420436 30650518=20
33410584=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 191940
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-200137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0469
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191937Z - 200137Z

Summary...A convective band with heavy rain is moving southwest
towards areas that received extremely heavy rainfall yesterday.=20
Converging outflow boundaries should increase the flash flood risk
late this afternoon into this evening. Hourly rain amounts to 3",
with instantaneous rates of 7"/hr possible, would overwhelm urban
areas and where soils are completely saturated.

Discussion...Two outflow boundaries are on the move; one moving
southeast into west-central LA and another backdooring southwest
through the FL Panhandle and southern AL. Precipitable water
values are near or above 2". ML CAPE is 3000-4000 J/kg, which is
high enough to lead to quick updrafts capable of very high
instantaneous rain rates. Effective bulk shear is roughly 20 kts,
which could lead to some level of organization.

The mesoscale guidance depicts a problematic scenario over the
next six hours. Both outflow boundaries should continue in their
respective directions, with their intersection potentially leading
to highly efficient rainfall. The mesoscale guidance,
particularly the REFS, indicates that this outflow intersection
should occur somewhere between central and southeast LA towards
the end of the MPD period. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible, which in itself would be a major problem for urban areas
and where soils were saturated by yesterday's deluge.=20
Instantaneous rain rates could reach 7"/hr in this environment,
even amongst less organized convection, which would be a problem
even if it occurred for only 5-10 minutes. Flash flooding is
considered likely and should be at least scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67cXnQkoe6wle7d2wasS3cta99h2n21l7M_otYX4LXOaiVwEya9G5TqmCZzVwfMCtEce= nNN_5rXU4Rll7yohclKrWmI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31588916 31118728 30578569 30088476 29598482=20
29638540 30238643 30078787 29848927 29879042=20
30629198 31369284 31479060=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 191946
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-200137-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0469...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Corrected for flash flood category

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191937Z - 200137Z

Summary...A convective band with heavy rain is moving southwest
towards areas that received extremely heavy rainfall yesterday.=20
Converging outflow boundaries should increase the flash flood risk
late this afternoon into this evening. Hourly rain amounts to 3",
with instantaneous rates of 7"/hr possible, would overwhelm urban
areas and where soils are completely saturated.

Discussion...Two outflow boundaries are on the move; one moving
southeast into west-central LA and another backdooring southwest
through the FL Panhandle and southern AL. Precipitable water
values are near or above 2". ML CAPE is 3000-4000 J/kg, which is
high enough to lead to quick updrafts capable of very high
instantaneous rain rates. Effective bulk shear is roughly 20 kts,
which could lead to some level of organization.

The mesoscale guidance depicts a problematic scenario over the
next six hours. Both outflow boundaries should continue in their
respective directions, with their intersection potentially leading
to highly efficient rainfall. The mesoscale guidance,
particularly the REFS, indicates that this outflow intersection
should occur somewhere between central and southeast LA towards
the end of the MPD period. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible, which in itself would be a major problem for urban areas
and where soils were saturated by yesterday's deluge.=20
Instantaneous rain rates could reach 7"/hr in this environment,
even amongst less organized convection, which would be a problem
even if it occurred for only 5-10 minutes. Flash flooding is
considered likely and should be at least scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EoMelqobMYZec8HE9ukTXnTIvHJ-PcEdHapb1MwYnt6uQx5QPHcGQSmxK_DAwrtcXQx= CxM_xOlXcphCuhX01iw2Pec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31588916 31118728 30578569 30088476 29598482=20
29638540 30238643 30078787 29848927 29879042=20
30629198 31369284 31479060=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 192015
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-200013-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0470
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192013Z - 200013Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are growing in coverage across Southeast
TX a bit ahead of an outflow boundary. Hourly rain amounts up to
3" are possible over the next several hours, which could lead to
flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are developing along an
axis of convergence that appears to be ahead of an incoming
outflow boundary. Aloft, there a couple of MCVs located to the
north and west which could be aiding difluence aloft.=20
Precipitable water values are 2-2.1" per GPS data; dew points to
the southeast of the convergence zone approach 80F. ML CAPE of
3000 J/kg exists near the developing thunderstorm line/band, with
values of 4000+ J/kg along the Middle and Lower TX Coast.=20
Effective bulk shear of 25 kts appears to be aiding in
thunderstorm organization.

The 12z REFS has a much better idea on where this line is located
when compared to the 12z HREF. It indicates that the outflow
boundary catches up to the convection and pushes it southeast into
Southwest LA and to the Upper TX Coast around 00z. The available
ingredients support hourly rain amounts to 3", which would be
problematic in urban areas and where soils have some degree of
saturation from recent rainfall.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4EddBkJ8z-2WJfaGAJ5YEu1dC2pzUJpl33uO6hBNBSd04SA6Egkn9w_hv7L79c3hIrKO= Pe7Pa5nOboAEPK4CD1GhwWc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31559333 29779354 28489690 28839805 29279776=20
29989629 31029497=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 192111
FFGMPD
MSZ000-ARZ000-200039-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0471
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...near the AR/MS border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192109Z - 200039Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have rapidly developed
ahead of an MCV. For a few hours, hourly rain amounts to 3" and
local totals to 5" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...An approaching MCV located to the west in AR is
helping to aid diffluence aloft near the AR/MS border, where
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have rapidly developed.=20
Precipitable water values are ~2" per GPS data. The area is near
a wave in the ML CAPE, with 2500-3000 J/kg in its vicinity and
4000+ J/kg lying to the south. Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts.

The thunderstorms have shown very little movement yet. The 12z
REFS and to some degree the 18z HREF have some signal for heavy
rainfall in this area, that persists for a few hours. The
presumption is that convective coverage will erode the available
instability, create a cold pool, and develop CIN as the resultant
outflow boundary tries to cause new convective formation to the
east-southeast. Hourly amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
could lead to flash flooding over the next few hours.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Zpn-zgeoSRM6SeKFxHjJBqqjFEQ_Unox1C4Xwn3IFs1t36ppBDPKkJ2vLKueHsOIUFj= flQVZu9yIZiZO6Le_EGllnM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34599007 34258920 33608905 33288968 33529132=20
33909204 34569095=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 192353
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-200251-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0472
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
752 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeast MS & northwest AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192351Z - 200251Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are propagating
eastward into/across northeast MS and northwest AL. Hourly
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Convection with heavy rainfall continues to propagate
east to east-southeast across portions of MS while new activity
forms across northwest AL. Precipitable water values are ~2". ML
CAPE is 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of 25 kts is leading
to some level of organization.

There is a modest signal in the mesoscale guidance for this
activity for another few hours. This could be for a couple of
reasons. One is an outflow boundary from central MS convection
earlier which has led to some CIN development to the thunderstorm
area's south. Another could be that a combination of the active
convection and the outflow boundary moving in from western MS
exhausts the ML CAPE sufficiently or leads to CIN development.=20
Either way, hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
remain possible until convection dissipates tonight.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-rTNhi7WzIVYll6f7dIYkHYh3uI4oB5iLdbBgDM9Sklx1wd1pDDUDwOxg1-2Cjq-AjhY= wb3-FImSwcPqp9nkCzdQ_gE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34078854 33878714 33068703 33058827 33068933=20
33049016 33728971=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 200019
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-200617-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0473
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of LA & MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200017Z - 200617Z

Summary...Incoming outflow boundaries from the west and east has
begun the expected convective uptick near the Central Gulf Coast.=20
Hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible over saturated soils &
urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across southern LA and southern MS as two outflow boundaries
approach from the west and east. Precipitable water values are
~2.1". ML CAPE remains 3000-4000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is
close to 25 kts, which could organize convection.

Even though both the 12z REFS and 18z HREF show a signal for heavy
rainfall, this appears primarily due to recent HRRR and hi-res NAM
solutions. Radar reflectivity trends lie in the direction of the
wetter guidance. A significant portion of the MPD area has
saturated soils from recent heavy to prolific rainfall. The
ingredients available continue to argue for hourly rain totals to
3" in the heaviest rainfall in this region, which could contain an instantaneous 7"/hr rate for several minutes. These sort of rates
would renew flash flooding. The wetter guidance shows rainfall
diminishing around 05z, which could be due to the resultant
outflow boundaries or outflow boundaries from new convection
clearing the Gulf Coast, so used a five hour horizon.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7doMX_Qfmq9buSFG6QqyVIleVaCg0Vkd3gp2cgyyqm1gMrZ6KnjJJxEH2x5AOKEN6lI2= e9H6KbyT2pKY882nqWuN1zU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32189005 32078923 31768873 30708878 30018880=20
29538888 29138879 28868935 29078978 28889062=20
29219150 29599331 29599385 29739492 30429474=20
31329221 31969102=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 200101
FFGMPD
TXZ000-200659-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0474
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200059Z - 200659Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are beginning to cross
the International Border into southern TX. Hourly amounts to 3"
are possible should they successfully break the mid-level cap.=20
This could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms from the periphery of the Sierra Madre
Oriental are beginning to cross the International Border into
southern TX. Temperatures at 700 hPa are above 12C, implying a
moderate convective cap is in place, which has led to some
attempts of convective reorganization from time to time. Earlier
convection between 20-22z in southern TX could not persist.=20
Precipitable water values are ~2.2" per GPS data. ML CAPE is
4000-4500 J/kg in the vicinity of the thunderstorms. Effective
bulk shear is ~25 kts.

The mesoscale guidance suggests that the thunderstorm area has a
decent chance of defeating the mid-level capping inversion in
place and then tracking near the instability gradient towards the
TX Hill Country. While they struggle to persist, they would be in
a state of constant reorganization until the cap becomes broken.=20
The 18z HREF has the stronger signal of this occurring, when
compared to the 12z REFS guidance, though it is slow to move the
convection across the border, based on recent radar reflectivity
trends. In this environment, hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible where cells merge, stall, or short periods of training
manage to occur. Should they occur, they'd be problematic in
urban areas and where topsoil is minimal. Uncertainty is greater
than usual with this type of convective scenario.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4CwfK_flTnTd4x4tTb9yiTqT6c5BYQJt_vjIjpz97e_gd_d_-O09ZsgqgBnQ5EyEU-KJ= 4n06f0wWhwUWvLxodTAFKm8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30229955 29829825 28949822 27079937 28100024=20
29280100=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

AWUS01 KWNH 200548
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0475
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Areas affected...central and south-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200544Z - 201030Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will likely result in a few
areas of flash flooding across central to south-central TX through
11Z. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches can be expected.

DISCUSSION...0530Z radar imagery showed slow moving nocturnal
convection developing across portions of the Balcones Escarpment
into south-central TX. Farther south, the remains of convection
that crossed the Rio Grande from Mexico late Friday evening was
located over south-central TX and the Rio Grande, with a
convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max over the lower Rio
Grande Valley about 40 miles southwest of Laredo. A remnant MCV
was also identified between Junction and Altoona, embedded within
a large scale mid-level trough axis extending southwestward from
the eastern TX/OK border. Moisture advection with increasing low
southeasterly level flow of 15-20 kt across southern TX resulted
in the removal of lower level CIN where MLCAPE was estimated to
range from 1500 to 3000+ J/kg (SPC mesoanalysis). PWs ranged from
just shy of 2 inches over the Edwards Plateau to near 2.3 inches
from Laredo to Corpus Christi, with upslope enhancement into the
Edwards Plateau likely playing a role in placement.

Some gradual advancement of mid-level features across
central/southern TX along with the further removal of low level
CIN will likely contribute to the eastward expansion of
thunderstorms into the night into portions of
central/south-central TX (from near CLL to CRP). Deeper layer
steering flow was weak with ~10-15 kt from the south, while
slightly stronger 850 mb winds of a similar orientation will
support the potential for backbuilding and training. The
environment will be supportive of high rain rates with 2 to 3+
inches in an hour and a few areas of flash flooding over the next
3-5 hours.

In the short term, a northward advancing outflow boundary to the
south of San Antonio will likely allow for additional development
into the I-35 corridor near San Antonio, possibly reaching as far
north as Austin.

Otto



...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!82wLbb7Oy5KWyfwiooeGI4M34W1LmpvntOvVLG3OdlJIybBp3986ROi8MS83EfyfH-7S= dnAXeK_8mhXSU_LphWr4cmU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30799718 30669617 30259581 29799580 29079621=20
28039692 27449726 27039816 27079911 27769898=20
28569967 29160034 29800018 30219967 30539889=20
30789796=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)