ABNT20 KNHC 121727
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a
little near a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of
Campeche. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland
over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while
interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are
only expected to be marginally conducive for any development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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ABNT20 KNHC 131143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Gulf:
A broad area of low pressure just offshore of eastern Mexico
continues to produce some shower and thunderstorm activity. While
this system has become better organized since yesterday, marginal
environmental conditions will probably prevent significant
development before the low moves inland over eastern Mexico by
Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on
Tuesday or Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but
conditions there are also expected to be only marginally conducive
for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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ABNT20 KNHC 141137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over eastern Mexico is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the low
remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the
next day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico around midweek while interacting with a
frontal boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only
marginally conducive for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Adams/Blake

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ABNT20 KNHC 151151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico continues
to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the
trough remains inland and drifts generally northward over
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. The system is then forecast
to move northeastward and could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico late Tuesday or Wednesday, where environmental conditions
may support some development around midweek.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall, flash
flooding and gusty winds are possible across portions of eastern and
southern Texas and Louisiana this week. Additional information on
this system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

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ABNT20 KNHC 161142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
A broad area of low pressure located inland over south Texas is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The system is forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast
and could emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later
today or tonight. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical
storm late today or on Wednesday, especially if the system moves far
enough offshore.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required later today. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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ABNT20 KNHC 181149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Offshore East Coast of the United States (Remnants of Arthur):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Arthur) are located over the southeastern United
States. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
some subtropical or tropical development on Friday or Saturday,
as the system moves northeastward at around 15 mph, and emerges
offshore the east coast of the United States and into the Western
Atlantic Ocean.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for
widespread and life-threatening flash flooding is likely across
portions of the Southeast United States during the next day
or two. Additional information on the rainfall potential can be
found in rainfall forecasts and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from
the Weather Prediction Center online at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
More information on this system, including Gale Warnings, is
available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

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ABNT20 KNHC 191133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Offshore the East Coast of the United States (Remnants of Arthur):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Arthur) are located over the southeastern United
States. The system is expected to emerge offshore the east coast of
the United States later today. Environmental conditions appear to be
marginally conducive for some subtropical or tropical development
tonight or Saturday as the system moves northeastward at around 20
mph across the Western Atlantic Ocean.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with the potential for life-threatening flash flooding is likely across portions of the
Southeast United States through tonight. Additional information on
the rainfall potential can be found in rainfall forecasts and
Excessive Rainfall Outlooks from the Weather Prediction Center
online at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov . More information on this system, including Gale Warnings, is available in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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ABNT20 KNHC 221133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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ABNT20 KNHC 231137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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ABNT20 KNHC 241134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ABNT20 KNHC 251136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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