ACUS11 KWNS 141758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141758=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-141900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141758Z - 141900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
along and ahead of a cold front across the Lower Great Lakes. This
activity will spread eastward with time into western New York. Cloud
cover remains across much of New York state but a few breaks in the
clouds to the south and west are allowing for some heating to occur.
Strong deep layer shear is in place across much of the region. As
further heating occurs in the downstream environment, lapse rates
will steepen with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg spreading northward. This
will be sufficient to support severe potential through the
afternoon. The primary risk will be for damaging winds.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Gk-ssBXGF530-E6N0kyhhG9gYR49U1n2DyEfHRtPNBPznZsn2FEu5goZVALdikVil3epBoT8= mFhB3u2-dCvHFR22Ag$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON 42137586 41997744 42017927 42077979 42247975 43277852
44927502 44777352 44027354 43377412 42727492 42137586=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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