ACUS11 KWNS 141808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141808=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141808Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for
isolated damaging downburst wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have
developed along and inland of the Atlantic Coast sea breeze across
portions of coastal GA/SC/NC as of 18 UTC. Compared to areas farther
inland, modestly greater low-level moisture dewpoints in the
low-to-mid 70s are contributing to greater instability, with MLCAPE
of 1500-2500 J/kg analyzed via latest objective analysis; although,
a lingering warm layer sampled around 500 mb by the 12z MHX/CHS
observed soundings may temper overall convective intensity. Weak
effective shear (less than 20-25 kts) will also tend to limit
overall updraft organization; however, high PWAT contents and
steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential for
water-loaded downbursts, with occasionally damaging wind gusts
possible. An instance or two of small hail may also occur with the
most robust cores. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time
owing to the limited potential for convective organization and
isolated nature of the severe threat.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7WOB7q5yX5Pzzk4i9vUk-v3Sc3dCsiZuY3ZWE1qOsqpg0z5zniEq-RJusteJleOsu8XouYTxW= jEMKvRCdwAP6utVsNg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON 32348213 33178135 33868040 34287982 35137866 35537810
35777734 35807692 35827634 35757605 35587590 35247594
34827625 34467663 33767797 32967934 31658096 30978134
30818169 30868224 31218239 31618238 32348213=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)