ACUS11 KWNS 141918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141917=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-142115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of Virginia...far southern
Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 141917Z - 142115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will move eastward with damaging
wind potential into the afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across the Shenandoah Valley and
Blue Ridge Mountains will increase in coverage and intensity as they
shift eastward into the more favorable air mass across
central/eastern Virginia this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm
development is likely downstream of the ongoing activity, with
several areas of deepening cumulus noted in visible satellite.
Mostly sunny skies through the morning has allowed for strong
daytime heating and warming, with temperatures warming into the mid
90s. Higher theta-e air is advecting northward, with around
1000-2000 J/kg across southern Virginia. Steep low-level lapse rates
are noted in SPC Mesoanalysis (7-8 C/km) and in the 18z RAOB from
IAD. Though deep layer shear is marginal (around 20-30 kts), very
warm and unstable conditions amid steep low to mid level lapse rates
will support potential for water laden downdrafts and severe winds.
A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential this
afternoon.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4AM3K16mRktErMH2S5d0R1h3OgQUb6IkM-PwCxH1l9pY9o6OnDAu_335TaicBTSuQEVHQExV3= 61cQPNTVK7rzpXpp_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 37138079 38198017 39397896 40127747 39997643 39767636
38557680 37327783 36827815 36537946 36688084 36838089
37138079=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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