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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1145

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 14, 2026 21:55:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 142155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142154=20
    PAZ000-142330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1145
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0454 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of western and central Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 336...

    Valid 142154Z - 142330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 336 continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercell tornado risk will persist for another few hours.
    A couple tornadoes and damaging winds are also possible with the
    approaching squall line from the west.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from CCX shows a few discrete
    supercells evolving across western and central PA ahead of a cold
    front and related squall line. The CCX VWP is sampling a 30-40 kt
    low-level jet, which is yielding a clockwise-curved low-level
    hodograph with ample streamwise vorticity for RM supercells (320
    m2/s2 0-1km SRH). This wind profile coupled with a warm/moist PBL
    (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will continue to support a few discrete
    supercell structures capable of producing a couple of tornadoes. The
    supercell tornado risk will generally be maximized for the next few
    hours (through around 01Z), before the core of the low-level jet
    translates northward.=20=20

    Embedded tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will also be possible
    with the northeast/southwest-oriented squall line as it advances
    eastward across western/central PA, given the aforementioned
    favorable downstream environment.

    ..Weinman.. 06/14/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4RCjZGsgUD8o8qHwc6VlJ1TCjrO_LDYXEJWvv_Zq20ZvU_BoBPaSlYNn0NxIxRMHWg6x5ewJO= HM_xYangu0GMp0uu4o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 39867878 39847954 40058008 40378029 40708032 41088004
    41667923 41917873 41927762 41817729 41567708 40897727
    40317783 39867878=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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