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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1148

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 15, 2026 01:58:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 150156
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150156=20
    NYZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-150400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1148
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0856 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of the northern Mid Atlantic/southwest New
    England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 150156Z - 150400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop late this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Along the eastern periphery of an extensive
    precipitation shield, a strong storm has recently developed to the
    northwest of Albany. The 00Z ALY sounding and the recent VWP from
    KENX depict a very favorable wind profile for organized convection,
    with favorable low-level veering and moderate to strong low/midlevel
    flow. However, very weak buoyancy was present on the 00Z ALY
    sounding. While some low-level moistening may occur through late
    evening, the nocturnally cooling boundary layer may hamper any
    substantial destabilization.=20

    A low-level warm-advection regime associated with an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough will help to sustain convection
    through late evening. Updraft strength may continue to be hampered
    by weak instability, but any stronger sustained cells could be
    accompanied by locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado, given
    the favorable wind profile. Due to the very weak instability, watch
    issuance is currently considered unlikely, though trends will
    continue to be monitored for any uptick in destabilization and storm organization.

    ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_QYS0UpKx_-IgHLYXZKpwE4Th77iIf6g4J80BEsTU794vI-jjaJTM0tTTU18ueamvrzCw419E= oGG7I8bQkiApRMSMME$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 39857431 42157421 42557488 43147382 43377311 43257275
    42057291 41237319 40477354 39787393 39857431=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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