ACUS11 KWNS 151934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151934=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico...Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151934Z - 152130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to increase in coverage through the
afternoon/evening posing a marginal risk for wind and hail.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage along
the high terrain in eastern New Mexico this afternoon. It is likely
that activity will continue to develop in this region before
clusters move off the high terrain and into portions of the Texas
Panhandle through the late afternoon/evening. With a few more hours
of additional heating, MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg should be available
in the area across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle.
Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear around 30-35
kts will support potential for a few instances of marginally severe
hail with initial discrete cells and potential for damaging wind as
clustering occurs into the evening. Overall, coverage of a more
organized severe threat appears low and as such a watch is unlikely
at this time.

..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7a-C2YsHB8dveDE5z9xoBj3bGc6Nful2XGixx8QKidXqXk__sNJORDH8nw8zqjUWb7buVa0PH= 4jH1w0ndI2F1dmPBqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33080578 34350547 35430548 36310538 36950460 37020371
36750291 36130245 34220233 33130293 32410522 32560565
33080578=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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