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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1151

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 15, 2026 20:21:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 152021
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152020=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-152215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1151
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the northern Great Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152020Z - 152215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for strong to severe wind gusts will spread
    eastward this afternoon, with the greatest risk likely from
    northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota.

    DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has increased across portions of
    the northern Great Plains through the early afternoon, with widely
    scattered showers and thunderstorms noted via regional radar
    imagery. While buoyancy remains generally weak at around a couple
    hundred J/kg MLCAPE (per a modified 18z ABR sounding), high LCLs and
    steep low-level lapse rates (2500+ m and 9+ C/km, respectively) are
    supporting efficient downward momentum transport of strengthening
    mid-level flow (30-40 kts sampled at 3 km AGL by the BIS/ABR VADs),
    with several wind gusts of 60-69 mph measured over the past 1-2
    hours. This activity and the associated threat for isolated
    strong/severe wind gusts will spread eastward into eastern South
    Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and western Minnesota over the
    next 1-3 hours. The greatest potential likely exists downstream of a
    marginally stronger cluster of convection approaching Aberdeen,
    South Dakota. Watch issuance remains unlikely owing to the isolated
    nature of the severe threat.

    ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9KqQXDPVZhqWFzR1pF1WUcOeuHtmm-bMPwAMPo_Utn2HFbd0A6S1hLebN4qgYDeHXVjhJGCQz= 13YHgZ-3Sto8me8IVA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 43619594 43639674 43699768 43799835 43969896 44199960
    44360007 44540028 44720032 44880018 44989999 45239968
    45459951 45739941 46149929 46759913 47019888 47229862
    47359798 47129596 46859529 46089462 45059460 44209486
    43679554 43619594=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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