ACUS11 KWNS 161417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161416=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0916 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana...southern
Mississippi...southern Alabama...Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161416Z - 161615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for a few transient supercell structures
through the morning/afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Within the broader widespread thunderstorm activity
across the Gulf states, a few cells have exhibited transient
supercell characteristics in the last hour. Across this region,
tropical moisture is streaming northward from a disturbance across
far southern Texas. Strengthening 700-850 mb flow across the Gulf
coast amid this tropical air mass will support occasional stronger
cells with transient supercell characteristics. These will have the
potential to produce isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.
Due to the limited coverage and transient nature of this potential,
a watch is unlikely to be needed but this area will be monitored for
changes through the afternoon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 06/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Raf-MbYDBmf8P61TR_UUpksc2neIVTGVsFh9kNchtCFUivGqhovaExvsyA3hSfG432q6LfGy= U3RT_lKmhJ1s2gU7Y8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30729111 30079177 29169172 28728940 28968859 29418881
29838905 30218895 30278720 30458617 30398519 31088515
31668520 31888744 31628753 30729111=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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