ACUS11 KWNS 161722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161722=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-161915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...eastern Illinois...northern Indiana...lower
Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 161722Z - 161915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase through the afternoon
with potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing across portions of
lower Michigan ahead of a surface low/cold front located across
Wisconsin. This activity will pose some risk for marginally severe
hail in the near term.

Additional development is expected back west near the cold front
across Illinois by early afternoon. While thermo profiles ahead of
the front remain meager, temperatures are steadily cooling aloft
with the approach of the upper low. This will likely modify profiles
quickly through the afternoon. Shear profiles support initial
supercell modes along the front this afternoon across Illinois into
northern Indiana and far southern Michigan. Given the steepening
lapse rates and strong deep layer shear, large hail and damaging
wind will be possible. Curved low-level hodographs will support some enhancement of SRH across northern Indiana into southern Michigan
with potential for a tornado or two. Upscale growth is expected with
time, with a shift in the main threat to become damaging wind with
time. A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area to cover
these potential threats in the next couple of hours.

..Thornton/Hart.. 06/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!48zCEr3JttIl38CSOTdmdetK-K32FDgsTvtpZrF3tEovfh8xtSO4nM33IjhTUHsyhxOA3bu4b= hZG5FnqvTVLMUt1nn0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 40468891 40918847 41738756 44738412 44288294 43228273
42218353 40848509 39848701 39818767 39888845 40468891=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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