ACUS11 KWNS 162154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162153=20
MIZ000-INZ000-162330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern lower Michigan and northern
Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

Valid 162153Z - 162330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail should
increase over the next few hours -- within Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#338.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a compact midlevel shortwave trough advancing
eastward across the Midwest, isolated cells are developing across
southern Lake Michigan. As this activity spreads/develops eastward
over the next few hours, a pocket of cold midlevel temperatures
(around -20C at 500mb) and resultant steep lapse rates should
promote some increase in updraft intensity. Despite modest buoyancy,
the steepening midlevel lapse rates combined with strengthening
low/midlevel flow preceding the trough (around 30-40 kt in the
lowest 3 km AGL per nearby VWP) should promote damaging gusts and
isolated severe hail with a mix of cells and small clusters.

..Weinman.. 06/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9mVTlMfP4L1Wx6GHXreDTzBtSi2GlRbnEPEgDIMOuFwul3TgDWkqeJyrUK7SW24CW3PrzZgiv= Xiq84mq_kKS6qy-iL4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 41508678 41818676 42698635 42938598 42888564 42668523
42148501 41628520 41288554 41238606 41328652 41508678=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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