ACUS11 KWNS 162226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162225=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-170030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...northern into northeast MT and northwest ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 162225Z - 170030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for isolated severe gusts and perhaps marginally
severe hail will develop as storms intensify during the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are developing ahead of
an amplifying upper trough over southern Alberta. GOES and
model-based upper flow fields show very strong westerly flow with
80+ kt flow at 8 km AGL per the Glasgow, MT WSR-88D VAD. Although
low-level moisture is modest (surface dewpoints ranging from 45-50
deg F), steepened 0-3 km lapse rates and cool mid levels are
supporting upwards of 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Very long hodographs
will support storm organization mainly in the form of a couple of
supercells early during the convective life cycle before more storms
and coalescing cold pools promotes more of a multicell mode. The
greater risk for severe hail will accompany the supercells before
the risk for severe gusts also begins to increase owing to higher
storm coverage.

..Smith/Gleason.. 06/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!89TC0c_tyxdtScwveM45SD50NnI7nM1ZFd-B-SLGOvgJy_TruTuXEyNr2QHLepEbn27VKAKmx= atkrbdM9TcIk6JMXWc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 48780942 48970824 48960393 48750161 48360088 47780094
47310121 47200232 47450518 47960798 48260907 48490943
48780942=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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