ACUS11 KWNS 171917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171916=20
NMZ000-AZZ000-172115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern
New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171916Z - 172115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon, with an associated risk for isolated damaging/severe wind
gusts. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate temperatures have
warmed into the mid/upper 90s F with dewpoints ranging from the
mid-40s to low-50s across portions of the Southwest (as of 19 UTC).
Modifying the 18z EPZ observed sounding for these conditions, a
deep, increasingly well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 500
mb is evident, with low- and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9-9.5
C/km and LCLs of 3.5+ km. As continued insolation results in
convective temperatures being breached, scattered, high-based
thunderstorms development will occur over the next 1-3 hours. While
weak mid-level flow and effective shear will limit storm
organization, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support
efficient evaporative cooling and a risk for isolated
damaging/severe wind gusts through this evening. Watch issuance is
not expected at this time owing to the isolated nature of the severe
threat.

..Chalmers/Hart.. 06/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_TH6Jl-SEkVkEgQvN1e-_Zzzf7SpkK3PILxWNB1WVj1FWtWNiiwW8KihLUg_SnIoAXkjnAUT= qfts5aKc3Hif88FCjk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 31270807 31230915 31261080 31481100 32181132 32501139
33121133 33361124 33531102 33551039 33430960 33290899
33120851 32850816 32520788 32000769 31810767 31680779
31690808 31270807=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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