ACUS11 KWNS 172244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172243=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-172345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1169
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast KS into parts of western/central MO

Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 343...345...

Valid 172243Z - 172345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 343, 345 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells with severe hail/wind potential will continue
into early evening. Some tornado potential is also evident,
especially across western and central Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells have developed from extreme east-central KS into western/central MO late this afternoon. While
this convection is developing in the vicinity of a cold front,
moderate to strong deep-layer shear generally orthogonal to the
boundary will continue to support semi-discrete convection into
early evening, with a continued supercell threat. While midlevel
temperatures are rather warm (especially with westward extent),
MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and elongated mid/upper-level hodographs
will support potential for large to very large hail. Localized
severe gusts will also be possible.

There is also an increasing concern for a tornado threat, especially
across parts of western/central MO. While low-level flow is veered,
some enlargement to low-level hodographs is still noted on regional
VWPs and point forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH of near/above 150
m2/s2 sufficient to support some tornado potential, given the
favorable buoyancy and low-level moisture. As a result, a Tornado
Watch was recently issued to cover this potential tornado threat.

..Dean.. 06/17/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__Hrl_W2eFhTR9bKdyTqCicnLAyoddpSPdN1f4cejoIKeiN-22g-WASBbQmQD5OlrphSFpJlD= _95MQH2T-Gk8K42VBY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38189545 38829388 39139337 39419288 39409261 38919255
38479258 38149271 37799330 37399482 37229582 37199643
37279668 37609684 37959629 38189545=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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