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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1179

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 18, 2026 10:44:17
    ACUS11 KWNS 181044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181043=20
    VAZ000-WVZ000-181245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1179
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0543 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

    Areas affected...West Virginia...Northwestern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 181043Z - 181245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A potential for severe wind gusts is expected to develop
    over much of West Virginia into northwestern Virginia this morning.
    Additional weather watch issuance may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A severe MCS is currently ongoing near an axis of
    moderate instability located from central Kentucky
    east-northeastward into western West Virginia. The eastern edge of
    this instability is forecast to shift eastward across the remainder
    of West Virginia and into northwestern Virginia over the next few
    hours. This should be enough to maintain a severe threat with the
    eastern edge of an MCS as it moves into the central Appalachians.
    Just to the south of the MCS, the Jackson, Kentucky WSR-88D VWP has
    0-6 km shear near 70 knots. This will likely support an isolated
    severe threat, mainly with short bowing line segments. The primary
    threat will be damaging wind gusts, but an isolated tornado threat
    will also be possible.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/18/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8iYKl0H30_evry_6bNAl4pOI3XvLNSYWLiHzQRtmKTxkUU6cpoDIML_E8AdzlmbU8fO3osgME= haf6wepgJz9UUpKKbw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

    LAT...LON 38218196 38608156 38928090 38968001 38887911 38697853
    38427829 37887834 37507864 37277907 37247982 37328050
    37428114 37558169 37678194 37908210 38218196=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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