ACUS11 KWNS 181743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181743=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-181845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and the
western Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 181743Z - 181845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to re-intensify this afternoon with
potential for damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues across
portions of central/eastern Kentucky into the Carolinas this
afternoon. This is ongoing in the vicinity of a differential heating zone/residual outflow from morning storm activity. Daytime heating
across this zone has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 80s
across southern Kentucky into northern Tennessee, with around
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE analyzed in SPC Mesoanalysis. Westerly deep
layer flow continues to support around 30-40 kts of boundary shear
to support organization. The parallel orientation of this shear to
the boundary will likely support clustering of storms and multi-cell
modes. Coverage of thunderstorms will likely increase this
afternoon, with potential for several clusters spreading eastward
through the afternoon. The main hazard is expected to be damaging
wind.

..Thornton/Hart.. 06/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8PrI-Aa_LArUhs9stEZaeE0QBlIWBE99oeTfIacvSKP7XSVrZ37Cz2R785WN8s3-b2eDn_yEO= uRdwQBb2Ba3Qxx7XaE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 37617939 37708033 37798192 37638508 37408598 36728600
36198566 36398354 36198140 36278063 36577926 36957898
37577909 37617939=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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