ACUS11 KWNS 181951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181951=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-182115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Areas affected...portions of the south-central Great Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181951Z - 182115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and gusty winds may
persist for another couple of hours before diminishing later this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, persistent elevated convection remained
ongoing across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
This activity has produced isolated reports of 1.00-1.25" hail and
damaging wind gusts over the past several hours. Continued
low-to-mid tropospheric warm air advection (centered around 700 mb)
atop a low-level frontal inversion is sustaining these storms, with
latest objective analysis indicating the presence of 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Effective shear of 40-50 kts and elongated hodographs above
the frontal inversion may continue to support occasional elevated
supercells capable of isolated large hail; although, relatively weak
mid-level lapse rates (generally less than 7 C/km) will largely
limit this threat. Occasional strong/damaging wind gusts may also
accompany these storms. This risk should then gradually diminish
with time through this afternoon and evening. Watch issuance is not
expected owing to the limited severe coverage/magnitude.

..Chalmers/Hart.. 06/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6xdi6s3YVt7qm0EsXrAyfmOZ72NjD7Hxje0V2YcK6mdm4X7eRX7at-5I-tTQFhB04pnhzolAA= LdyZSUFFK05e-avsQE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 36919849 37219832 37349811 37449771 37589641 37619576
37519525 37459501 37089478 36749482 36449523 36199587
36079656 36119733 36269814 36519841 36919849=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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