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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1189

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 18, 2026 20:48:53
    ACUS11 KWNS 182048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182048=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-182215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1189
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0348 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the central Gulf Coast and Southeast

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 351...354...

    Valid 182048Z - 182215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 351, 354 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
    continues across Tornado Watches 351 and 354.

    DISCUSSION...A modestly well-organized convective line remains
    ongoing from the central Gulf Coast into eastern Alabama as of 2035
    UTC. While no severe gusts have been observed over the past several
    hours, moderate buoyancy and modestly enhanced effective shear
    preceding this convection will continue to support the maintenance
    of this convective line and additional clusters, with a threat for
    damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread east/northeastward
    through this evening in tandem with a mid-level disturbance and
    attendant southerly, low-level jet. The MXX/EVX/EOX VAD profiles are
    also sampling 125-150 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH ahead of this convection,
    which will continue to promote the potential for a few tornadoes. A
    relatively greater tornado risk may develop from eastern Alabama
    into western Georgia where the convective line is gradually
    developing a more favorable north-south orientation (more
    perpendicular to deep-layer shear vectors) and where surface winds
    are locally more backed.

    ..Chalmers.. 06/18/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5iO052evVIF-MCWhMx7rSaR9W48-sT_XqB7LNsYBiRwsjZXz-YGqgnRLwCOhAxSeCEi0Pt6Cf= Mcpm1f4jicHpSxbMFE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30478890 31038773 31638657 31968622 32458609 32848588
    33258533 33218475 32988446 32368433 31638446 30908487
    30418577 30168658 30048779 29958870 29968915 30078936
    30248932 30478890=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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