ACUS11 KWNS 190802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190801=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-191030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...North-central Texas...Far Southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 190801Z - 191030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts
will likely continue across north-central Texas over the next few
hours, and could impact far southern Oklahoma as well. The threat is
expected to remain too marginal for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary front
located from west-central Texas northeastward into southeast
Oklahoma. Nearly surface-based thunderstorms are developing close to
the boundary to the south-southwest of Wichita Falls. The storms are
located just to the north of a pocket of strong instability, where
surface dewpoints are in the upper 70s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in
the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings
over north-central Texas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km.
This thermodynamic environment will be favorable for an isolated
large hail and a wind-damage threat. Although deep-layer shear is
weak over much of north-central Texas, RAP forecast soundings a bit
further east have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range. As the
storms move eastward into a slightly more favorable environment, the
severe threat is expected to be maintained or could increase some.
However, large-scale ascent is limited over central and north Texas,
which may keep any severe threat localized.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 06/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!99nfVCzPe3K1CsO4yW9OYrWZ6WtnfX3iiM3uxIypM9LJFZS-higJbCAlVfSqPx4hl9c2TxUhQ= PbioC4j7g-jDlfWD4Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34199910 34519878 34619828 34629752 34529707 34089671
33129683 32489703 32219734 32019791 32109886 32289915
32589937 33249936 34199910=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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