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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1197

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 19, 2026 15:31:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 191531
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191531=20
    NCZ000-191700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1197
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1031 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

    Areas affected...the Outer Banks of North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191531Z - 191700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps
    a brief tornado will exist with ongoing storms for the next 1-2
    hours. Given the limited areal extent of the threat, a watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...As of 15:15 UTC, radar data from KMHX indicated a
    bookend-vortex structure just west of Newport, NC, with a number of
    small-scale bowing features observed within the trailing line
    segment to the immediate south. Storm motion is to the northeast at
    around 45 kt, which will allow the northern extension of the QLCS to
    parallel the Outer Banks at least as far as Cape Hatteras.=20

    While the KMHX VWP is indicating veered low-level winds ahead of the
    ongoing storms, modestly strong speed shear with height is yielding
    0-1 km SRH of around 150 m2/s2, and 35 kt of effective bulk shear.
    That kinematic environment coincides with a moist and moderately
    unstable boundary layer with MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg, which will
    support the potential for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
    brief tornado as the storms continue northeast along the Outer Banks
    into early afternoon.=20

    Given the limited areal extent of the threat, a watch is not
    anticipated.

    ..Mead.. 06/19/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_b28D4DJCVNtc2Yi7A1CP5pVo_CmTWm4aEmt6k8g0TlcaKZM0lbzf-Lu0UD1JzIX6NA-CGIaO= v-mK1MqN2QbjkWR2K4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...

    LAT...LON 34547719 34767732 35307675 35327581 35297537 34867561
    34567618 34477657 34547719=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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