ACUS11 KWNS 191735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191735=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-191930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Red River Valley of eastern North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191735Z - 191930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated occurrences of marginally
severe hail and perhaps a brief tornado is forecast to increase
early this afternoon. Expected severe-weather coverage and intensity
currently appear too limited to warrant a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite and mosaic radar
data indicate a gradual increase in storm coverage within a zone of
forcing for ascent preceding a vigorous short-wave trough over
central ND. Cooling temperatures aloft coupled with daytime heating
are contributing to steepening low/mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg, a notable amount of which is contained within the
lowest 3 km of the ground.=20

Area VWPs and objective plan view data indicate that vertical shear
is relatively weak, which should limit the potential for storm
organization and a more robust severe-weather threat. Nonetheless,
the presence of seasonably cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C at
500 mb) may support some marginally severe hail potential in the
strongest storms. In addition, the colocation of relatively large
low-level CAPE and vertical vorticity in the vicinity of existing
surface boundaries suggests some potential for a brief tornado.=20

Expected severe-weather coverage and intensity currently appear too
limited to warrant a watch issuance. Greater severe-weather
potential is expected to materialize farther to the southeast later
this afternoon, which may necessitate a watch issuance.

..Mead.. 06/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!61EYVEGBVEvnWn09SLYZrcFtBzEXqdVaBlgcCZ2OYAXYtZYYCDSgZQE-3KrSfnJQqt1v3Nwwt= 6DLrPJ1qkg8Jl501hg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47419763 48299735 49069736 49369678 48999527 48299443
47709401 47229413 46599510 46389604 46189660 46479805
47419763=20


=3D =3D =3D
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