ACUS11 KWNS 191736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191736=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-191900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Areas affected...Northern Florida and extreme southeast Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191736Z - 191900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A localized corridor of damaging wind potential is
emerging across northern Florida and far southeast Georgia. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, a cluster of thunderstorms
east of the KTLH radar has developed a consolidated cold pool per
regional velocity imagery. This is likely the result of rapid
updraft collapse based on latest KDP trends; however, latest IR
imagery shows renewed development on the outflow boundary,
suggesting that cold-pool driven propagation may continue for the
short term. The poor shear environment (per regional VWPs) will
likely limit the overall intensity and duration of this convection,
but given downstream warming (temperatures climbing into the low
90s, a few degrees ahead of morning guidance) and steepening of
low-level lapse rates, embedded bursts of damaging winds (most
likely 35-55 mph, but potentially as strong as 60 mph) seem
possible.=20

While damaging wind potential appears highest with the eastward
propagating cluster, a few clusters along the FL/GA border north of
the Jacksonville, FL area are similarly propagating into the warming
air mass across northern FL. More isolated downbursts appear
possible with this activity additional convection develops along the
outflow boundaries over the next couple of hours.

..Moore/Hart.. 06/19/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6JwGZx9VxxYt2ZcMwZHWOZ72b-foUddycbfiADeISLENgbKOAmLaLmQA_VpNdoTTUFEx9jzf_= shmMdbmGvi_iNKJis0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30028398 30318349 30578329 30718325 30738301 30718138
30408134 29918121 29818125 29748155 29728214 29708264
29768318 29818355 29958378 30028398=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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