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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1207

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 20, 2026 00:40:59
    ACUS11 KWNS 200040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200040=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-200215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1207
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0740 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas into extreme
    northeastern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 200040Z - 200215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts are possible over the next few
    hours with an ongoing MCS. The severe threat should remain isolated,
    so a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery and surface observations
    depict a cold-pool-driven MCS propagating south-southeastward across southeastern KS. This MCS is traversing a diffuse baroclinic
    boundary, where marginal instability is in place. However, 00Z
    mesoanalysis and the Topeka 00Z observed sounding shows around 40
    kts of effective bulk shear in place, with the shear vectors
    oriented perpendicular to the MCS leading line orientation,
    suggesting some potential for this MCS to continue propagating
    southeastward for a few more hours. Multiple surface observations
    have shown sub-severe gusts so far (i.e. around 35 kts). However,
    given the somewhat organized structure of this MCS, a severe gust or
    two is possible. Nonetheless, given the mediocre ambient
    environment, the severe threat is expected to remain constrained in
    space and time, so a WW issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/20/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5qgDRLvJADEwe7jkuVTe5wNtN8IwO0QVf5DxLfgPhxnTk4nI4yczkJwfujqKtPCXvBeKUzp4C= 8lQk3cpKplEJq3HY3Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 38029793 38519731 38719665 38579597 38109543 37709520
    37369522 37139546 36929592 36869652 36919700 37199744
    38029793=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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