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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1216

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 21, 2026 00:09:06
    ACUS11 KWNS 210009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210008=20
    KSZ000-210045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1216
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0708 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

    Areas affected...portions of western Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 357...358...

    Valid 210008Z - 210045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
    Watches 357, 358 continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe wind swath is beginning, with up to 100 mph gusts
    likely over the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Merging supercells have recently formed into a
    cold-pool-driven MCS. In the last 30 minutes, multiple measured
    gusts over 90 mph and appreciable damage have been reported in the
    Colby, KS vicinity. Some bowing tendencies have been noted with this
    MCS, with KDDC radar inbound velocity data showing the onset of a
    rear-inflow jet developing with the aid of remnant supercell
    mesocyclones, which may be transitioning to effective book-end
    vorticies. This convective morphology is unfolding within a highly
    favorable mesoscale setup, with the MCS bow echo structure roughly
    traversing a retreating baroclinic boundary, amid 2500-3000 J/kg
    MLCAPE and 60+ kts of effective bulk shear perpendicular to the MCS
    leading line. Several 75+ mph gusts are expected, with some
    potentially reaching 100 mph over the next couple of hours.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6RW83hCnM5xYnLUEJn2jHFsigcD06fYTCU08kU7KdAA2Z0eW_eOffbRzpIUwgTcrkbFY_fUhY= MVaUdX13vy2cYVI6vk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39360079 39240037 38930020 38450016 38330018 38270053
    38300105 38370136 38530139 39010133 39260116 39300104
    39360079=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)