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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1220

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 21, 2026 02:43:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 210243
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210242=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-210345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1220
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0942 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

    Areas affected...portions of west-central into southern Kansas...the
    extreme northeastern Texas Panhandle...and far northern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 210242Z - 210345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is being
    considered.

    DISCUSSION...A mature cold-pool-driven MCS continues to produce
    measured severe gusts across western KS. Both NEXRAD single-site and
    MRMS mosaic radar data have shown an uptick in the organization and
    intensity of the MCS, with a somewhat increased southeasterly
    propagation speed and a well defined rear inflow jet. Given residual
    1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear ahead of
    this MCS, it is plausible that the accompanying wind swath may
    potentially cross into far northern OK. As such, a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will probably be needed given a
    persisting strong MCS structure with accompanying measured severe
    gusts.

    ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-G82_lzbdq-zfrrFxts0iZroe7PlgkM5ez_zh45zWuA-I3kwptki4fJmHtFReyMCDvB4RnSxF= Xqe3WltwRABTHSUufc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36369895 36240043 36480090 36920119 37660140 38360143
    38610131 39029976 39169888 38789730 38189654 38129657
    37809653 37309660 36909706 36739750 36589798 36509825
    36419890 36369895=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)