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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1222

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 21, 2026 04:30:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 210430
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210430=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-210630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1222
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1130 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the Nebraska Sandhills

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360...

    Valid 210430Z - 210630Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue moving east across portions of
    north-central Nebraska this evening. Modest instability and strong
    shear should maintain the MCS structure, although weak low-level
    lapse rates should keep any severe threat rather isolated.

    DISCUSSION...A north-south linear MCS has organized across portions
    of north-central Nebraska this evening and will continue eastward
    into the morning hours. The overall environment remains
    kinematically favorable for thunderstorm organization (effective
    layer shear greater than 50 knots), although the thermodynamic
    environment remains modest at best with between 500 to 1000 J/kg of
    MUCAPE along the line of storms. Additionally, low-level lapse rates
    continue to weaken, with 0-3 kilometer lapse rates objectively
    analyzed to be around 3 C/km. Thus, despite the linear MCS's
    organization, the elevated nature of the individual thunderstorms
    and the weak low-level lapse rates should limit any severe wind
    potential to being isolated/sporadic in nature.

    ..Marsh.. 06/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!50bUZxsYd8BKABYBkHURZlqVf9J8wDUBDEN4rWkYdEuCOlvH0wXdn96QJoyW4JpXspxB9eB-e= U8aJJ3S0etMvo1ya7s$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43000123 43010026 40710021 40660124 40990127 41260203
    41970138 43000123=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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