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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1227

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 21, 2026 10:28:11
    ACUS11 KWNS 211028
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211027=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1227
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0527 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

    Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...

    Valid 211027Z - 211130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging wind gusts will be
    possible over the next couple of hours from southeast Kansas into
    northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. The threat should be too
    isolated for additional weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing from Kansas into far western
    Missouri, on the northern side of an unstable airmass. The MCS is
    being supported by strong warm advection and large-scale ascent
    associated with a shortwave trough moving through the region. The
    strongest part of the MCS is in southeast Kansas, where the RAP
    estimates that MUCAPE is near 2000 J/kg and effective shear is
    around 40 knots. This will be sufficient for an isolated severe
    threat early this morning. The potential for severe wind gusts
    should be maximized along the leading edge of any short bowing line
    segment that can remain organized and surface-based. The severe
    threat should become more isolated as inhibition continues to
    increase.

    ..Broyles.. 06/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5PdWAiw5cGiWmv1aAu3RKWoXW4LSzpakDPk9NRpW2xcnU32UOLFEY7DPfL9M-0LP-N3_08tn6= 3Pp5sdrjk89hA5NKUQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 38879460 38459482 38129515 37919567 37919631 37879698
    37719741 37469766 36999774 36569728 36389648 36339545
    36419476 36569417 36949363 37649330 38389326 38749340
    38989382 38999421 38879460=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)