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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1241

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 22, 2026 01:03:15
    ACUS11 KWNS 220103
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220102=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-220200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1241
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0802 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

    Areas affected...portions of northern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

    Valid 220102Z - 220200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A new tornado watch likely will be needed across portions
    of northern Kentucky.

    DISCUSSION...A tornado threat is likely to develop later this
    evening as a broken line of supercells moves into the region. These
    supercells have a history of confirmed tornadoes. The overall
    environment across northern Kentucky is marginally to moderately
    unstable, with MUCAPE ranging from just under 1000 J/kg to around
    1500 J/kg. Continued low-level theta-e advection to the southeast of
    a MCV across central Indiana should sustain or slightly increase
    instability despite the loss of diurnal heating.

    Additionally, a favorable kinematic environment (Louisville VAD
    showing 0-3 kilometer SRH increasing the last hour to nearly 500
    m2/s2) will remain into the late evening hours. Thus, as the
    upstream supercells move into the region, the threat for tornadoes
    will persist. A new tornado watch will likely be needed within the
    hour.

    ..Marsh/Smith.. 06/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8TKEBWfEQoQR8yORTRPJwsZiffrPukfBxJMbCvdTyveXtFR0zILkx5Q33Kltf_ZY9JaCsvI7h= TxOuZ4SxRbhKVkHXyQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 37758677 38368578 38788501 38808406 38688366 38418375
    38098424 37748522 37588596 37558670 37568685 37758677=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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