ACUS11 KWNS 220421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220421=20
KYZ000-INZ000-220615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Areas affected...far southern Indiana into portions of northern
Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 365...370...

Valid 220421Z - 220615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 365, 370 continues.

SUMMARY...A trio of supercell thunderstorms continue to move east
across the area. The overall environment will support a continued
severe threat, including tornadoes, in the near term, with a gradual
decrease in tornado potential as they storms move east into an
increasingly unfavorable environment.

DISCUSSION...A trio of supercells continue across the region,
including one supercell with a confirmed tornado near Boonville, IN,
around 1044 PM CDT. This tornado occurred with the western most
supercell in an environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3 km
SRH around 450 m2/s2 (per KVXW VAD).=20

These supercells will move east through the night on the southern
periphery of a remnant MCV moving across Indiana into Ohio. As they
moves east, they should move into an increasingly stable atmosphere
owing to widespread stratiform rain from earlier convection
(objectively analyzed MLCAPE falls to less than 250 J/kg across
eastern portions of northern Kentucky).=20

Thus, given the ongoing supercells, the tornado threat will continue
in the near term, especially across portions of southwest Indiana
along and adjacent portions of northern Kentucky. Isolated large
hail to around 1" may be possible, along with gusty thunderstorm
winds. However, as the supercells move farther east and into a more
stable environment, the overall tornado/severe threat should
diminish with time.

..Marsh.. 06/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_G8YjYHyzH9j07UFVTN0gX1CTc-t1RW7D2ec8G_2dERP0t7OXO4fbQAzgPPKB5jEaue8xNXqY= 7PB0jjbPW-nWJ_x2Fc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON 37888798 38218745 38328612 38268506 38228442 38078404
37848399 37708519 37648637 37718731 37888798=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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