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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1249

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 22, 2026 08:21:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 220821
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220821=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-221015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1249
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0321 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southern/eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372...

    Valid 220821Z - 221015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging thunderstorm winds will remain possible as a
    well-developed bowing complex of severe storms continues to move east/southeast. The severe risk will likely extend beyond WW 372
    after 09-10z, and a downstream watch will be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived and mature bow echo continues to move
    east/southeast at around 45 mph across southern/eastern OK as of
    0820z. Numerous reports of severe wind gusts have been received
    during the early morning across OK, with the most recent reports
    generally in the 60 to 70 mph range. Aided by a well-developed cold
    pool, evidenced by a 7 mb pressure rise at the Norman mesonet as the
    system moved through central Oklahoma, severe wind gusts in the 60
    to 70 mph range, with isolated higher gusts, will remain likely as
    the leading edge approaches the southern/eastern edges of WW 372 in
    the 09-10z time frame. Given the well-organized structure of the MCS
    and a favorable downstream thermodynamic environment (MUCAPE
    averaging 3000 J/kg), the severe wind risk is expected to move into
    western AR/northeast TX, and a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    will be coordinated.

    ..Bunting/Gleason.. 06/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4MOiSu9aPksY77eOE3kFA17R3v0tCGBS3UGnF82AASX7ikzh2hH8ClrkIJlo84dD1Ac9IUF6u= blnB73vIPpHr6eCXHw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34379838 34489760 34849684 35089643 35439625 36069618
    36309615 36279580 36219546 35929486 35719461 35399431
    35059401 34579384 33979376 33389387 33109443 33059572
    33569722 34379838=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)