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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1250

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 22, 2026 11:03:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 221103
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221103=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-221300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1250
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0603 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern Oklahoma...western and
    central Arkansas...northwest Louisiana...and northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373...

    Valid 221103Z - 221300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A weakening bowing complex of strong/severe thunderstorms
    will continue to produce strong to severe wind gusts through 9 am
    CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery at 11z depicts a bowing complex of thunderstorms over far western AR, southeast OK and northeast TX,
    moving east at around 45 mph while storms along the southern
    periphery sag southeast. This complex, which originated over western
    KS Sunday afternoon, has exhibited a gradual weakening trend over
    the past two hours as evidenced by a diminishing rear-inflow jet and
    lower leading edge reflectivity. Nevertheless, at least some
    potential for strong/near severe gusts will continue through 13-14z
    given the fast system movement, presence of moderate/strong MLCAPE
    in the downstream environment, and a slowly veering low-level jet.

    Beyond 13-14z, the severe threat should continue to diminish with
    time as the weakening trend continues, in line with short-term
    high-res guidance.

    ..Bunting.. 06/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_IZ-7D10gYGlnZ039xm0kpHwqlImsqzi5ugmFJmRHm3ajPWIrxGnCq3Ty-iNzbSLah1GbpCYY= fp2ZsRo6sk8NAJg2Vw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32949367 32939491 33109550 33249581 33699608 33859481
    34189408 34549375 34899374 35269394 35589396 35569311
    35559278 35199235 34339249 33289279 32949367=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)