ACUS11 KWNS 221725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221725=20 NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-22193=
0-

Mesoscale Discussion 1253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 221725Z - 221930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over
the next couple of hours. Scattered damaging wind gusts, isolated
hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible through evening. A
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 19z.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms over the higher terrain of WV and
vicinity are gradually increasing in intensity this afternoon as
gradual destabilization occurs. Downstream from higher terrain
across portions of VA into MD/DE, southern NJ and southeast PA,
stronger heating is occurring within areas of mostly clear skies.
Higher quality moisture across eastern VA has been streaming
northward toward southeast PA/southern NJ and ensuing stronger
destabilization is noted. Enhanced westerly flow is apparent in
early afternoon mesoanalysis and 12z regional RAOBs. This should
allow for sufficient deep layer shear for storm organization.
Thunderstorm clusters will pose mainly a risk of damaging wind gusts
given steep (greater than 7.5 C/km) 0-3 km lapse rates and PW values
around 1.75 inches.=20

Some forecast guidance suggests sufficient clustering/outflow
consolidation may occur in the vicinity of northern VA/MD and a
forward propagating cluster/bowing segment could develop and track
northeast with time toward southeast PA/NJ. This corridor aligns
with the corridor of stronger midlevel westerlies, and may pose a
relative greater severe risk compared to points further south into
southern VA and NC where flow is weaker. If this scenario unfolds,
damaging wind potential will increase. Given modest 0-1 km SRH
across the region, a tornado or two also could occur, though the
damaging wind risk is expected to be the primary hazard into early
evening.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8nFEyZRHYudkRQ2AhqyGfIj_2DHUumBhV8vCUtLGO_KGhmLMLIyXbRbAX7b640ZQazbVmwA0P= PfCKJyepSIKxGBcNa0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX... GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON 40497808 40747686 40807597 40757507 40587476 40047426
39677428 38847474 38197525 37847570 37297702 36447933
36097997 35748149 35858253 36268338 36608350 36928354
37748308 38378233 39148140 40177908 40497808=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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