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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1256

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 22, 2026 19:38:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 221938
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221937=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-222130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1256
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

    Areas affected...eastern TN...northern GA...and the western
    Carolinas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 221937Z - 222130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through late
    afternoon. Sporadic strong wind gusts will be possible. A watch may
    be needed at some point, but a more organized severe risk is
    uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms over northern AL and Middle
    TN will continue to progress generally east/northeast through the
    remainder of the afternoon. Most of the stronger midlevel flow
    across the region is in the wake of an MCV/outflow boundary
    extending from Middle TN into northwest AL, leaving generally weak
    vertical shear across northern GA/eastern TN and the western
    Carolinas. Nevertheless, a warm and moist airmass resides across the
    area, resulting in moderate instability. Transient
    multicells/clusters may produce sporadic strong/locally damaging
    gusts. If a more organized cluster/bowing complex can develop
    upstream closer to the MCV and move into this area late this
    afternoon/early evening, some increased risk for damaging winds may
    develop. A more organized severe risk and the need for a severe
    thunderstorm watch is uncertain. Trends will be monitored.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7yZF1rlIlRiLRwumFlrrlITDuumqclzt7xNn9ouBmwiuuSqXAkwSIIT3xTYQO_L9ig-DZ35Pt= kxi-TOpOhN117gtshY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 35458606 36528399 36468212 35778200 34938209 34258265
    33928379 33758510 34048546 34668606 35038630 35458606=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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